The remnants of Hurricane Gordon

[Rich Bonser]

Afternoon All

Whilst having my daily look at the weather, the following may well be of interest to us British and Irish birders on the east side of 'the pond': -

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2006/pr20060918.html

The remnants of Hurricane Gordon is arriving - there seems to be a nice front coming off the southern edge of the low itself going straight through southern Ireland and in its latter stages hitting SW England. Winds up to 80mph predicted in some parts.

Looks like autumn 2006 is here boys (and girls)... any thoughts?

Cheers and good birding

Rich

[Jane Turner]

Mostly I better get the windows on the extension sharpish!

More american Waders?
And some seabirds in the Irish sea at last

[Andrew Whitehouse]

Looking at the synoptic charts, there's big low pressure (Hurricane Gordon) coming in from the west, whilst some big high pressure sits over eastern Europe. Could be good birds from both directions.

[POP]

Could or maybe not interesting.



Gordon Makes Waves
Well, quite literally... but then again Gordon is a category two hurricane. By now, many of you will have heard that there is a "hurricane on the way" and for once, this could actually be true. At present, there is a hurricane warning in force for the Azores out in the Atlantic. Whilst not unprecedented, this is the first hurricane warning for the islands since 1992 and hurricane Gordon could be only the tenth system to affect the islands since 1851. Gordon is expected to cross the islands this afternoon and into this evening still as a category two hurricane and is likely to cause significant damage. After this, weather models and weather forecasters diverge. The question is quite simply, how will Gordon interact with the cold front to its North? It's the answer to this question which dictates how it will affect the UK late on Wednesday. The reason that the answer is so complex is because to a global weather model, hurricane Gordon is simply a small dot in the large mesh, however this small dot has massive amounts of power. Mesoscale models are now picking up on possible developments, however, even they rely on input from global models. This means, until Gordon is within the domain of the mesoscale model, the forecast situation will change quickly and abruptly. So, where does this leave us? Here are the probabilistic forecasts for the next 48 hours :- 1. Gordon has no interaction with the British Isles (5%) 2. Gordon splits in two late on Wednesday evening taking gales and heavy rain North into Southern Ireland which later spreads East into Western areas (60%) 3. Gordon retains central circulation affecting Western Ireland as a Tropical Storm (20%) 4. Gordon retains central circulation affecting Western England and the Irish Sea as a Tropical Storm (15%) In all honesty, this situation will be best forecast during tomorrow when nowcasting tools become available. Weather models are good, but only as good as the data which goes into them. During tomorrow, satellite and ship information will be available which will allow us to fine tune exactly how Gordon interacts with that cold front and what path he'll take. It's possible, that for many of us it'll turn a tad breezy and wet, it's also possible that an extremely ugly weather situation develops late on Wednesday for Western areas. More on Gordon later today.


POP

[wolfbirder]

Thanks for that informative summary Pop. Certainly very interesting! I for one would be grateful if you could keep us abreast of any predictions, so as to plan any seawatching trips to the coast especially.

[Andrew Whitehouse]

Thanks for that informative summary Pop. Certainly very interesting! I for one would be grateful if you could keep us abreast of any predictions, so as to plan any seawatching trips to the coast especially.

Try Metcheck for up to date info:

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/