Interesting trends.. Pipits again!

[Jane Turner]

Being rather sad and anally retentive about my local patch birdwatching, I databased all 60,000 or so observations that I have made over the last 25 years at Red Rocks, Merseyside. One of the nice things about covering an area for so long is that you get really nice believable graphs.

This set shows the difference in passage patterns between closely related species. Tree pipit is almost 100% a spring bird, Meadow Pipit and Yellow wagtail show a slight spring bias and Grey wagtail is an autumn species. I'd be interested to hear any theories.

[CJW]

I'd agree, based on my own observations, but I don't want people to start calling us "the Laurel and Hardy of the NW birding Scene"...........

[Jane Turner]

You'd agree that I am retentive...or that getting good stats by being stubborn and birding at one locality is a good thing?

Another fine mess.....

Anyone interested in seeing any other species?

[CJW]

You'd agree that I am retentive...or that getting good stats by being stubborn and birding at one locality is a good thing?

Another fine mess.....

Anyone interested in seeing any other species?

With the results, Ollie.......

[Darrell Clegg]

Fascinating!!

I haven't got any graphs, but my own obsevations of passage down here in South East Cornwall show all of those to be mostly Autumn birds. Yellow Wagtail and Meadow Pipit show a strong autumn bias, and I hardly ever see (or hear) Tree Pipit on passage in Spring. I usually get them on the breeding grounds, which are near the coast here anyway.

Darrell

[Edward]

All the species mentioned, Jane, are vagrants here apart from Meadow Pipit and Tree Pipit I haven't seen anywhere in the world. Records of Tree Pipit here are split fairly evenly between spring and autumn here, Yellow Wag is predominatly spring and Grey Wag a winter vagrant.

Anyway for all you graph and bar chart fetishists, check this out, it's got info on all vagrants to Iceland in bar chart and map form, scroll down. Trainspotters eat your heart out!
http://www.hi.is/~yannk/varia.html

E

[Michael Frankis]

Wood Warbler (my prediction: almost 100% spring), Redstart (my predic: mainly autumn), Pied Flycatcher (my predic: about equal)

Michael

[Jane Turner]

Wood warbler is exclusively sping from memory, Redstart is spring bias, again from memory.... Pief Fly is about equal, poss spring bias.

Ok now I'll crunch the numbers

Edward. Thats a fabulous site for us graph geeks!

[Jane Turner]

Not seen enough Pied Flys or Wood Warblers to get really nice stats. Anyway here goes

Wood Warbler, Redstart, Pied Flycatcher Without a record of 5 on one day in Sept, the autumn peak on Redstart would be pathetic!

[Michael Frankis]

Interesting thanks - much larger totals than I get on my patch, but my patch is 10km inland so I don't get any coastal passage

Michael

[Jane Turner]

So what is your guess for Melodious Warbler and Icterine Warbler!

[Darrell Clegg]

On the North-East coast Jane, I reckon Icterine in the Autumn and Melodious never (well almost!!)

Down here both are autumn birds with Melodious outnumbering Icterine by about 4:1

Darrell

[Jane Turner]

I am on the NW coast....and the results may surprise you.... I'll do it in a minute

[Michael Frankis]

My guess (cumulative totals; materially assisted by sneaking a look in Dymond Fraser & Gantlett's Rare Birds) is:
Icterine: none in spring, one or two in autumn
Melodious: one or two in spring, 10-20 in autumn.

A complete contrast to Northumberland, where:
Icterine: a few in spring, 50+ in autumn
Melodious: never (not on the NL list).

Michael

[Jane Turner]

here goes!

Melodious First

Close, very close Michael, but you need to factor in the RR spring bias. There is a period in mid to late May, when with the right conditions (warm with SE winds) we can give anywhere in the country a run for their money....

[Michael Frankis]

the Rest & Recuperation spring bias??

SE winds here in May are cold (the North Sea is still only 9°C then) so "warm with SE winds" is an oxymoron over here

Michael

[Jane Turner]

RR = Red Rocks, sorry. The NW tip of the Wirral peninsula. We are always best with a light SE wind. I guess stuff drifts out into the Irish Sea and at dawn we can be the first visible bit of land. I think we get our best birds in mid to late may because that is when the wind is most likely to be SE. I recall one year, 1990 I think, when there was a long period of hot SE weather in late April and we did all right then. Bluethroat, Bee-eater, Iberian Chiff etc.

A good proportion of our rarities are overshoots rather than drift I suspect.

[James]

Hi Jane

I got Dartford Warbler near your area. Was this a one-off? (about 5 years ago - but my memory may be fading!).

James

[Jane Turner]

Almost. There was one in 1991 too. That was a late spring bird, whereas the more recent one wintered.

[sparrowbirder]

My own observations at seaforth probably on par with janes, yellow wag commoner in spring often coming through with the white wags, grey wag autumn often 10-20 a day not unusual..going back over my notes amazed to see just how scarce some species have become,even yellow wags now only in ones or twos mostly (in past 10 or 20 daily not unusual) and birds like whinchats now very scarce indeed, has anybody else noticed this!!

[Michael Frankis]

whinchats now very scarce indeed, has anybody else noticed this!!
Yes, very definitely. They've completely ceased to breed in lowland Northumberland (where they used to be widespread in small numbers), and even in the Cheviots they are a lot less common than before (they used to be one of the commonest birds in the Cheviots). I blame agricultural intensification (loss of the lowland breeders, and making feeding difficult for passage birds on their way south from the hills), and also the widespread prophylactic use of ivermectin in upland livestock (makes their dung toxic to dungflies, once an important food for breeding Whinchats)

Michael

[Jane Turner]

Spotted Flycather is the species I find has crashed most.

[Michael Frankis]

Yep, Spotty Flies too. Used to be the commonest breeding summer visitor on my patch (c.20 pairs), now there's none.

Michael

[sparrowbirder]

spot fly is actually quite a rarity now as a migrant at the places i go birding, have heard some authorities blaming sahel again for the loss of eg whinchats but how does that explain the population strength of whitethroats which winter in a similar area!! i think michaels (or another) explanation to be more plausible

[Mike D]

All I have logged in my books are the following observations:
Swifts arrive on my patch May 10th +/- 2 days.
Large increase in numbers of Linnets and Goldfinches 2nd week May and 2nd week September.
I am impressed by your cataloging over such a long period, Jane, it shows great dedication and a love of your subject. Thanks.
Mike

[Harry Hussey]

Hi Jane/Michael,
Must agree,Spotted Flys have become very scarce as breeding birds,even since I began birding in the early 90's.Usually find a few each spring and particularly autumn at the coastal hotspots,but saw my first breeding birds for a while this summer(a pair on UCC campus(!)and a pair near Mallow).
Blackcaps,on the other hand,have never been so common as a breeding bird here:have even found singing males in large suburban gardens throughout the summer(the species was formerly confined to prime woodland,and seem to recall reading that it was only found in a few counties in the early 20th century?)!
Harry H

[Jane Turner]

I just crunched the data which shows what I think we all suspected. Spotted Flycatcher numbers 75-86, 87-96 and post 96. Note the complete collapse of the local breeding population and consequent rarity of the species apart from on spring migration.

I believe the arrival dates are getting later too, though these graphs don't show it. I made a decision when I entered the data to not sum int in finer fetail than half months. I might have a look at that sometime!

I suspect that the early autumn peak in the early years were British birds on return migration. The later ones are probably continental. A few migrants at Red Rocks show a distinct twin peak in autumn.