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Study offers winter lifeline for struggling farmland birds (RSPB) (1 Viewer)

Conservationists have come up with a solution to the 'hungry gap' - the annual problem of farmland birds struggling for survival in late winter and early spring.

"Conservationists have come up with a solution to the ‘hungry gap’ – the annual problem of farmland birds struggling for survival in late winter and early spring."

"RSPB conservation scientist David Buckingham said: “We carried out trials on 12 farms in the West Midlands and found that when small patches of ryegrass around the edge of fields was left to go to seed we managed to attract high numbers of birds."

“Farmland bird numbers have declined by half since 1970 and we want to work with the many farmers out there who are doing their bit to reverse this trend. Ryegrass is grown for grazing and silage across the UK so this is a simple, effective measure that can be put in place on any dairy or mixed farm to help struggling farmland birds."


Masterful propaganda. The ‘hungry gap’ is an idea dreamt up to explain away the fact that 15 years of agri-environment schemes have failed to reverse declines in farmland birds. It’s presented here as fact, but it’s a hypothesis at best. Making seed available will inevitably attract birds to an area, but this doesn’t mean that background food availability is limiting, since foraging theory shows us that birds will accumulate in patches with the greatest marginal gain rate. Even if greater food availability did lead to population recovery it wouldn’t prove that that food shortage caused the decline.

The RSPB is relentless in its efforts to establish a narrative that extends its power and influence, regardless of whether there is any reliable science to back it up, or whether it really serves the interests of wildlife. Once achieved, the narrative enables the RSPB to demonize farmers who fail to co-operate with their utopian designs.

http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur
 
In terms of propaganda you appear to have found a niche when it comes to anti-RSPB rhetoric. I fail to see why this suggestion could be considered a bad thing and how if included within Environmental Stewardship Schemes it would 'increase the RSPB's power and influence' other than ensuring the knoll they are conspiring dominance from is a slightly more grassy one than current.

Food such as seed declines as winter progresses, the provision of additional food if it helps secure the survival of some individuals that would otherwise have perished must surely be positive in the face of recent declines?

There is nothing in the RSPB press release that suggests they are trying to prove any theory regarding the decline in Farmland Birds, simply trying to create something positive to counter what they see as a factor.

As far as 'demonising' is concerned MA's comments in the linked article seemed to be particularly aimed at the NFU who do appear (to me) to have been fairly negative, slow and unresponsive to environmental concerns and proposals at times when compared to other farming organisations such as the CLA.

Look on the bright side, at least there'll be a little more food for the Sparrowhawks and somebody like Songbird Survival might commission more research from you so they can perpetuate the myth they need to be controlled.
 
In terms of propaganda you appear to have found a niche when it comes to anti-RSPB rhetoric.

My evaluations tend to be specific rather than rhetorical, but I agree that the niche you refer to is largely vacant. For a big business operation with a £100m turnover the RSPB do get a bit of a free ride when it comes to criticism, especially considering the catastrophic declines in bird populations that have happened on their watch. Then again, nothing succeeds like failure – just ask the bankers.

Regarding commissions, I would be happy simply to get access to the data I need to pursue my curiosity using my own time and resources, as with all the studies I’ve done over the last 15 years, but research that’s potentially ‘off-message’ isn’t allowed. Good luck with the tour company though. Hopefully there’ll be some cheap advertising space for you in Birds magazine if you keep pushing the line.

http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur
 
My evaluations tend to be specific rather than rhetorical, but I agree that the niche you refer to is largely vacant. For a big business operation with a £100m turnover the RSPB do get a bit of a free ride when it comes to criticism, especially considering the catastrophic declines in bird populations that have happened on their watch. Then again, nothing succeeds like failure – just ask the bankers.

Regarding commissions, I would be happy simply to get access to the data I need to pursue my curiosity using my own time and resources, as with all the studies I’ve done over the last 15 years, but research that’s potentially ‘off-message’ isn’t allowed. Good luck with the tour company though. Hopefully there’ll be some cheap advertising space for you in Birds magazine if you keep pushing the line.

http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur

'A free ride when it comes to criticism' - you have to be joking right? Whether it is the Countryside Alliance, Songbird Survival, NFU, Game & Conservancy Trust or anti-RSPB columns in the Telegraph and shooting magazines they have a whole range of individuals and organisations lined up to criticise them on a regular basis.
What binds most of these together is they all have an agenda in relation to their business operations/interests. What has interested me from your emergence and subsequent attacks on the BTO/RSPB is understanding what your agenda is, something that is still unclear.
 
For a big business operation with a £100m turnover the RSPB do get a bit of a free ride when it comes to criticism, especially considering the catastrophic declines in bird populations that have happened on their watch. Then again, nothing succeeds like failure – just ask the bankers.

Nice one.

So what, we accuse all NGOs of failing us in this biodiversity crisis? I think we need more evaluation of conservation actions but statements such as the above are massively counter-productive and demonstrably untrue.

How are you measuring failure when you have no control group (a UK without RSPB intervention)?

The RSPB have many conservation successes to speak of, typically involving rare species which benefit from specefic habitat management - the sort of thing you can only do when you have the land to manage.


z
 
CPBell;2207888 [B said:
since foraging theory shows us that birds will accumulate in patches with the greatest marginal gain rate[/b]. Even if greater food availability did lead to population recovery it wouldn’t prove that that food shortage caused the decline.
http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur

Could you explain the first term (in bold) above, please - it's been a while since I studied birds for a Uni. dissertation?!

The second sentence, whilst true, doesn't allow much credence; though there is no proof it goes some way to point to a possible cause, no? A hypothesis, as you say, but a good start.
 
'A free ride when it comes to criticism' - you have to be joking right? Whether it is the Countryside Alliance, Songbird Survival, NFU, Game & Conservancy Trust or anti-RSPB columns in the Telegraph and shooting magazines they have a whole range of individuals and organisations lined up to criticise them on a regular basis.
What binds most of these together is they all have an agenda in relation to their business operations/interests. What has interested me from your emergence and subsequent attacks on the BTO/RSPB is understanding what your agenda is, something that is still unclear.

It’s not surprising that the RSPB should receive criticism from its competitors, but there is precious little from elsewhere. This is a tribute to their success in establishing themselves as custodians of virtue, but also to their political clout, especially with respect to the direction taken by ecological science. There are plenty of professional ornithologists who are scathing in private about the RSPB, but few would dare to go public.

Regarding my own motivation, your puzzlement will continue for however long you persist with the assumption that I have an ‘agenda’. I’m interested in finding out the truth, whatever that happens to be. The RSPB and BTO lose no opportunity to strew obstacles in my path, which makes me think they are afraid of what this might turn out to be.

How are you measuring failure when you have no control group (a UK without RSPB intervention)?

The RSPB have many conservation successes to speak of, typically involving rare species which benefit from specefic habitat management - the sort of thing you can only do when you have the land to manage.

If decline by a half of birds on farmland and by a third in woodland doesn’t constitute evidence of failure, I find it difficult to imagine what would. I grant the RSPB’s success in preserving small and for the most part globally irrelevant populations of species on the edge of their breeding ranges in the British Isles. It makes good commercial sense through serving the public’s interest in novelty, but let’s not pretend it amounts to a hill of beans in the scheme of things.

Could you explain the first term (in bold) above, please - it's been a while since I studied birds for a Uni. dissertation?!

There are various ways of approaching this. Marginal value theorem states that a forager should leave a patch when intake rate falls to the average. A patch with high food availability will be depleted more slowly, so foragers should stay there for a longer period. Alternatively, ideal free theory states that foragers should distribute themselves across the landscape so as to equalise their intake rate, which declines as forager density increases. Patches with high food availability will provide a higher intake rate for a given density, and so should support higher forager density than patches with lower food availability.

The important thing to bear in mind in both cases is that the rules still hold when poorer quality patches provide a more than adequate food supply, so aggregation of foragers in food rich patches doesn’t mean that they would suffer any detriment if those patches were removed. However studies showing that birds are attracted to improved habitat is constantly spun as evidence for general food shortage, as in the above press release. It’s either ignorant or dishonest – probably a bit of both.

http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur
 
Masterful propaganda. The ‘hungry gap’ is an idea dreamt up to explain away the fact that 15 years of agri-environment schemes have failed to reverse declines in farmland birds.

The "hungry gap" was not an idea invented by conservationists at all, no matter what the RSPB press office might say. It has long been a problem for farmers, and used to be a critical problem to humans in seasonal climates (still is in some parts). It is that period of the seasonal cycle when old food stocks ar low, or run out, before new food stocks have reached the edible stage.

Not sure I am impressed by the use of ryegrass for buntings. When we could leave some grass set-aside un-mown we did see a flock of linnets feeding on it. It was quite remarkable in that they started at one end of a strip and worked systematically along. When the birds were not present it was still obvious where they were working - by seeing that heads further down the hill were stripped, those up the hill untouched. Only a couple of dozen linnet were ever present, and never any larger finches or buntings. Cereal based feeding systems attract buntings and large finches in good numbers, and rape based systems attract linnet in good numbers.

We have been ringing in winter at sites with different feed strategies for some years. Sites with wild bird cover lose their birds about the end of January. The other sites with an artificial feeding regime don't. At those sites with an artificial feeding regime, significant feed is taken to about the end of May (one very cold year to the end of June). That is the hungry gap, it is real, and the only known way to combat it reliably is to feed. That is expensive especially in labour, but the farmer who hosts us that only had wild bird cover has seen the results too and has decided, without prompting from us, to start an artificial feeding programme. No, we don't get any financial support for doing this.

Mike, farmer and conservationist.
 
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There are various ways of approaching this. Marginal value theorem states that a forager should leave a patch when intake rate falls to the average. A patch with high food availability will be depleted more slowly, so foragers should stay there for a longer period. Alternatively, ideal free theory states that foragers should distribute themselves across the landscape so as to equalise their intake rate, which declines as forager density increases. Patches with high food availability will provide a higher intake rate for a given density, and so should support higher forager density than patches with lower food availability.

Thanks for taking the time to explain.
 
]Marginal value theorem states that a forager should leave a patch when intake rate falls to the average. A patch with high food availability will be depleted more slowly, so foragers should stay there for a longer period. Alternatively, ideal free theory states that foragers should distribute themselves across the landscape so as to equalise their intake rate, which declines as forager density increases. Patches with high food availability will provide a higher intake rate for a given density, and so should support higher forager density than patches with lower food availability.

The important thing to bear in mind in both cases is that the rules still hold when poorer quality patches provide a more than adequate food supply, so aggregation of foragers in food rich patches doesn’t mean that they would suffer any detriment if those patches were removed. However studies showing that birds are attracted to improved habitat is constantly spun as evidence for general food shortage, as in the above press release. It’s either ignorant or dishonest – probably a bit of both.
And totally ignores other BTO research (sorry, cannot cite where) showing that foragers flock up, presumably as defence against predators, even when the "optimum" feeding strategy would be for them to disperse. That also suggests that both those theorems do not apply to granivorous passerines in winter in general.

It also suggests that the patches of wild bird cover may be offering birds better feeding conditions even when adequate food is distributed thinly across the countryside. Why ? because the birds benefit from being flocked up as a defence against predators.

As a farmer (and committed conservationist) I have been very critical of the RSPB over the years. However, I have always respected the fact that they are trying to _do_ something which is apparently far beyond the imagination of so many. I am also aware that I have made many of the same mistakes as RSPB, have learnt and adapted and I have seen the RSPB doing the same. In particular, I too started (25 years ago) with a species centred approach. I have moved on gradually from that to the state where I am today - with a general principle of generating as much diversity of habitat and opportunity for all different types of wildlife and letting that wildlife exploit the opportunities. The RSPB are quite clearly moving in the same direction - and earning my respect in the process even though I wish they could move faster, achieve more. We should help them. I am not saying criticism is out - but we should accept the limitations such a large organization faces.

My criticisms of the RSPB have centred like CP Bell on the "upper" management being too focussed on fund generation rather than actually doing the conservation work. I would be quick to say that I think that RSPB staff in general do an excellent job despite poor pay (typical of rural workers !) though you will find exceptions in any generalization. However, it must be difficult, in senior RSPB management, not to become obsessed with money. Imagine the furore if they failed to keep the funds rolling in. It is not inconceivable that they could end up in prison for mis-managing such a flagship charity if things went wrong. Consider - how many bread-winners are torn between their urge to keep the bread on the table and the need to spend time with their family ? It is not a dissimilar position, and has the same difficulty in trying to see the bigger picture from inside the situation.

I haven't been aware of the BTO being too focussed on fund raising.

As for agri-environment schemes failing. Yes, there has been a study done in Scotland comparing farms in schemes and farms outside schemes. It found, basically, that schemes achieved little, that some farms were good and some were poor regardless of whether they were in schemes or not. I can't remember but I think they pointed to farmer attitude. This did not surprise me as I and any similar minded farmers would be classified as "not in scheme" and all organic farmers, who are generally only in it for financial reasons, were classified as "in scheme". When you set targets (in the latter case financial) you tend to focus on them and achieve them, everything else tends to get forgotten.

In that sense I am lucky. My business, like any other, has to make money. However, to achieve that I use a contract farmer who concentrates on farming profitably (with considerable backup from me) freeing me to focus more effort on conservation, especially now that I have lost my outside job !

So, I would accept that agri-environment schemes are not doing well - though I would question whether we have good enough information to say they have achieved nothing. For instance, the education information put out to farmers has probably affected many farmers thinking even if they are not in schemes - perhaps the good farmers found by the Scottish study have done better because they know what is being advised under these schemes. I almost certainly fall into that category.

I believe that agri-environment schemes could work, probably already have, and that continuing them is not "flogging a dead horse". However, to justify the amount of money put in, they need to change, we need to up our game.

What do I think schemes need to do to perform better ?

They need to become part of the profit picture for farmers. Remember the farmers maxim - "live for today, farm as if you will be farming for 1000 years". Many. probably most, farmers do dream of passing on their businesses to future generation ad infinitum, and to do that the business must be financially sound. If farmers generally are focussing on making profit, conservation is always going to take last priority if it is perceived as a loss leader.

Is conservation a loss leader ? In immediate financial terms, most definitely. EU policy is that direct agri-environment scheme payments should not cover more than 75% of costs. So, a 25% loss guaranteed, in the bureaucrats eyes. To the farmer things are much worse - because scheme rules value the farmer's time at £0. Yep - we are slaves. Add to that the high rate of inflation we are experiencing (well above RPI for critical inputs such as energy) and that 75% of costs becomes a joke.

My suggestion is that agri-environment payments should be set at a level which gives a decent profit to the farmer. There are already excellent, excessive, bureaucratic controls in place to make sure that work gets done properly. Where does the money to pay farmers come from ? Reduce direct payments, so called Pillar 1 or Single Farm Payments to fund this. To her credit Caroline Spellman publicly supported similar moves, though without the profit for agri-environment work. Unfortunately in the face of blind panic amongst the industry lobby (fear of the unknown amongst subsidy junkies), she backed down.

What can you all do ?

Criticism is good. Criticise the agri-environment schemes for under performing. We might get some improvements eventually, even if not what I would consider the best ones ... but then I am a farmer ! Oh, and please keep your criticisms calm and to the point. Anything else tends to be dismissed out of hand as ignorant bluster from "those with an agenda" ;)

Mike.
 
And totally ignores other BTO research (sorry, cannot cite where) showing that foragers flock up, presumably as defence against predators, even when the "optimum" feeding strategy would be for them to disperse. That also suggests that both those theorems do not apply to granivorous passerines in winter in general.

Theoretical models only ever work perfectly in the lab, where all confounding variables can be controlled. In the field a whole range of additional trade-offs come into play, and it’s easy to show departures from predictions and then build ever more complex models to explain them. Such is the stuff of scientific empire building. However this doesn’t affect the soundness or applicability of the general principle, which is that birds (or flocks of birds) are attracted to the most profitable patches, even if less profitable patches are more than adequate.

The fact that the hungry gap idea was co-opted by conservationists is instructive. It has intuitive appeal as many people are still aware of the seasonal cycle of local agricultural production. However, this is just another plausible ‘just-so’ story. Remember that birds are highly mobile, and most seedeaters are partial migrants. If a ‘hungry gap’ had suddenly appeared because of changes in agriculture, this would have tipped demography in favour of more migratory individuals, and so populations would not have declined, but simply become more migratory.

My issue with the upper echelons of the RSPB and big-business conservation in general is not so much their concentration on the bottom line as the extent to which this is prioritised over the mission. Agro-conservation policy is one thing, but from my perspective the politicisation of ecological science is particularly disturbing. My experience is that it’s practically impossible to do objective science on bird ecology in the UK, since opportunity, funding and publication is determined by what’s good for the ‘industry’.

In the end, this boils down to grandiose, top-down schemes that demand a vast bureaucratic apparatus, at the top of which sit the all-knowing technocrats, pushing down blame and pulling up credit. At this stage, the role of the professional scientist is to generate evidence that supports the underlying manifesto, so what they do ceases to be science in any meaningful sense of the word.

Oh, and I agree about calm and to the point, but sweet reason on its own can be a bit dry, so you need to leaven it with a bit of bluster now and again, so long as you keep it low on the Mark Avery scale.

http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur
 
In terms of propaganda you appear to have found a niche when it comes to anti-RSPB rhetoric. I fail to see why this suggestion could be considered a bad thing and how if included within Environmental Stewardship Schemes it would 'increase the RSPB's power and influence' other than ensuring the knoll they are conspiring dominance from is a slightly more grassy one than current.

Food such as seed declines as winter progresses, the provision of additional food if it helps secure the survival of some individuals that would otherwise have perished must surely be positive in the face of recent declines?

There is nothing in the RSPB press release that suggests they are trying to prove any theory regarding the decline in Farmland Birds, simply trying to create something positive to counter what they see as a factor.

As far as 'demonising' is concerned MA's comments in the linked article seemed to be particularly aimed at the NFU who do appear (to me) to have been fairly negative, slow and unresponsive to environmental concerns and proposals at times when compared to other farming organisations such as the CLA.

Look on the bright side, at least there'll be a little more food for the Sparrowhawks and somebody like Songbird Survival might commission more research from you so they can perpetuate the myth they need to be controlled.

A thoroughly intelligent response from someone who obviously knows what they are talking about.

For a big business operation with a £100m turnover the RSPB do get a bit of a free ride when it comes to criticism, especially considering the catastrophic declines in bird populations that have happened on their watch.

"On their watch" Are you seriously saying it's the fault of the RSPB? Did they have a presence when the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957 and do they contribute to the policy making of the Common Agricultural Policy?
 
Theoretical models only ever work perfectly in the lab, where all confounding variables can be controlled.

I think it was you that started introducing scientific theories...


If a ‘hungry gap’ had suddenly appeared because of changes in agriculture, this would have tipped demography in favour of more migratory individuals, and so populations would not have declined, but simply become more migratory.

There was no claim in the original PR you were attacking that a hungry gap had suddenly appeared. Given the relative pace of change in agriculture over a very short period of time in evolutionary terms surely adaptations of this nature are highly unlikely to be able to keep pace?

My issue with the upper echelons of the RSPB and big-business conservation in general is not so much their concentration on the bottom line as the extent to which this is prioritised over the mission.

I've never worked for the RSPB and I have no first hand knowledge of the balance of their spend between fund-raising and conservation. I have however worked in business in senior management and your comments regarding 'the bottom line' are fairly frequent, sometimes true for some organisations, but in many other instances borne out of ignorance and an inability to see longer term and strategic rather than short term aims.

Chunks of what you write and say in your videos display a bitterness towards these organisations (RSPB/BTO)and whilst you regularly claim to be seeking the truth, something you probably believe, it is a truth that seems to be driven by a belief that 'they are wrong and I am right' that just appears a little blinkered at times.
The RSPB/BTO are not above criticism and if you trawl through my personal blog you'll find the odd piece doing just that but where it's done it's done in a positive and hopefully constructive way without an undercurrent of something personal.
 
If decline by a half of birds on farmland and by a third in woodland doesn’t constitute evidence of failure, I find it difficult to imagine what would.

You miss the point. Where's the control UK without conservation intervention? You have all sorts of synergisms at play here, maybe without the RSPB the declines would have been more severe?

I grant the RSPB’s success in preserving small and for the most part globally irrelevant populations of species on the edge of their breeding ranges in the British Isles. It makes good commercial sense through serving the public’s interest in novelty, but let’s not pretend it amounts to a hill of beans in the scheme of things.

And the population of globally even more common farmland birds matters even more? And House Sparrows, give me a break? We all know the British Isles is a shifted baseline. Were there millions of pairs of Corn Bunting in the UK when it was a wildwood? We are legally obliged to do conservation at home, unfortunately what we have is only marginally worth conserving. Our national parks are sterile upland areas. Maybe though, with ideas like the Great Fen Project we can start to recreate lost biodiverse ecosystems...

What about Roseate Terns, or other globally rare taxa? Of course most UK biodiversity is not important on a global scale, that's why the RSPB has fingers in more important pies.

Above all CPB - what would YOU do?

Z
 
Given the relative pace of change in agriculture over a very short period of time in evolutionary terms surely adaptations of this nature are highly unlikely to be able to keep pace?

On the contrary, migratory behaviour is very likely to be able to keep pace. Selective breeding of members of a partial migrant population can produce 100% migrants or non-migrants in 3-6 generations. See figure 1 here.

Chunks of what you write and say in your videos display a bitterness towards these organisations (RSPB/BTO)and whilst you regularly claim to be seeking the truth, something you probably believe, it is a truth that seems to be driven by a belief that 'they are wrong and I am right' that just appears a little blinkered at times.

Psychoanalyse me as much as you like. My motivation is supremely irrelevant, and both sides to any dispute think they are right. What matters is how they justify their belief. RSPB/BTO expend vast resources accumulating evidence that appears to favour theories that strengthen their respective business models. However science does the opposite – it devises falsifiable hypotheses and looks for evidence that they are false. This is what I did in my house sparrow study, but I can’t do any more because RSPB/BTO stand in the way. Real science is much too dangerous when you have a business to run, since you can’t predict what the outcome will be.

And the population of globally even more common farmland birds matters even more? And House Sparrows, give me a break?

I think most people would rather have their House Sparrows back than worry about a few hundred Cirl Buntings in south Devon or a few hundred Corncrakes in the Outer Hebrides. If you disagree, fine. Keep paying your RSPB subscriptions and supporting their work, but don’t ask the taxpayer to subsidise it or demand that farmers implement their ineffectual schemes.

http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur
 
I think most people would rather have their House Sparrows back than worry about a few hundred Cirl Buntings in south Devon or a few hundred Corncrakes in the Outer Hebrides. If you disagree, fine. Keep paying your RSPB subscriptions and supporting their work, but don’t ask the taxpayer to subsidise it or demand that farmers implement their ineffectual schemes.

All of which points are irrelevant to what I have just said:

1) House Sparrows - shifted baseline and a dirty commensal. We'll get them back once natural selection kicks in for more risk adverse foraging though right? I buy your Sparrowhawk story, you'd sell it better if you were less defensive. Predators impact prey populations, sh*t it happens. Competition happens too, does anyone think we should resume commercial whaling operations in Antarctica because a resurgent whale population is driving down penguin populations because there is only a finite amount of primary productivity to divide up? We are talking about additive mortality here.

2) Global population of Corncrake = 1.815-3.24 million so yeah common, but this species was considered globally threatened until recently: cf: http://www.corncrake.net/index_e.html In a western European context Scottish populations are important.

3) Please either concede or offer a rebuttal to my previous points. If you expect everyone else not to cherrypick.... How can we know that conservation interventions brought about by UK NGOs have demonstrably not worked? Without a 'national' control?

what is your conservation manifesto?

Z
 
Theoretical models only ever work perfectly in the lab, where all confounding variables can be controlled. In the field a whole range of additional trade-offs come into play, and it’s easy to show departures from predictions and then build ever more complex models to explain them. Such is the stuff of scientific empire building. However this doesn’t affect the soundness or applicability of the general principle, which is that birds (or flocks of birds) are attracted to the most profitable patches, even if less profitable patches are more than adequate.
Yes but ... the theoretical models you pointed too may have nothing to do with the mechanism by which this happens at all !


The fact that the hungry gap idea was co-opted by conservationists is instructive. It has intuitive appeal as many people are still aware of the seasonal cycle of local agricultural production. However, this is just another plausible ‘just-so’ story. Remember that birds are highly mobile, and most seedeaters are partial migrants. If a ‘hungry gap’ had suddenly appeared because of changes in agriculture, this would have tipped demography in favour of more migratory individuals, and so populations would not have declined, but simply become more migratory.
I have read your bit about how this can happen quite quickly. Maybe, in partial migrant species. In highly sedentary species such as house sparrows and yellowhammers I cannot see how this could happen quickly if at all because there probably would be no individuals with advantageous behaviour to start the change. In general it is insectivores that migrate, not seed eaters, and it is the seed eaters that are being bitten by the hungry gap.

OK, some seed eaters are partial migrants. Redpoll and siskin are doing OK - but they feed on trees. Linnets are doing OK - on the back of rising areas of oil seed crops. Chaffinch are doing well, but they are generalists, not farmland birds. I'm not aware of any other partial migrants doing reasonably. I guess they are only locally migratory but goldfinches are doing very well - because they have learnt to use garden feeders and then co-operated with the bird seed industry in persuading people to provide plenty nyger seed. Another partial migrant, twite, are doing rubbish but their strategy was to exploit better seed availability in arable areas - and it isn't better anymore. And then there are buntings, skylark, grey partridge ...

Another barrier to increasing migrant behaviour is the extent over which these agricultural changes are taking place. It isn't just a matter of moving a bit further and finding things as they were. the migrant would have to move much further _and_ have to change foraging behaviour _and_ food source.

Ironically the hungry gap is getting less of an issue for farmers due to better transport and storage. There are still issues with forage for ruminants in some years but we tend to manage resources much "better". At the same time it is probably getting worse for birds where farmers have not taken steps to mitigate for changes in practice. What changes ? Machinery, combines, are much more efficient now. We simply do not leave so much spilt grain in the field. Herbicides are much better, and crop competition far more effective at inhibiting "weeds". Far fewer seed producing plants survive. Set aside has gone, which was an important source of seed. Winter cropping (i.e. sowing in autumn) is increasing, so less stubble is left into the winter, let alone through to the spring when the birds need the feed. Specialization of farms mean livestock areas are losing cereal cropping almost completely.

My issue with the upper echelons of the RSPB and big-business conservation in general is not so much their concentration on the bottom line as the extent to which this is prioritised over the mission. Agro-conservation policy is one thing, but from my perspective the politicisation of ecological science is particularly disturbing.
I have already explained this. Have you ever managed a big budget where the buck stops with you, where the responsibility really is serious ? There is only so much one can focus on, and you do tend to prioritize and delegate. Look deeper in the RSPB and lots of staff are focussed on the mission. Don't expect everybody to do everything, you are far too idealistic !

My experience is that it’s practically impossible to do objective science on bird ecology in the UK, since opportunity, funding and publication is determined by what’s good for the ‘industry’.
Always the case, in all fields of academia, business, politics, the lot, and the "industry" needs people like you to stimulate wider thinking.

In the end, this boils down to grandiose, top-down schemes that demand a vast bureaucratic apparatus, at the top of which sit the all-knowing technocrats, pushing down blame and pulling up credit.
How can the RSPB or other conservation NGOs be held responsible for that ? That is the climate we work in, and it is set by Brussels. Believe me, nothing significant in conservation on farms happens outside the rule of Brussels remit. There are enthusiasts like me who do our own thing, but we are too few to be truly significant, and most of what we do is ideas that come from the mainstream. If the RSPB didn't play the game, they'd have no say in the deployment of resources far beyond their own - they'd be missing the opportunity to "gear up" their work. Worse, if they (and others like them) were not informing and lobbying UK and EU governments then conservation would fall off the agenda. Nobody would give a tuppenny bit. They would also be failing their members, their charter, their objectives.

It is all very well to criticize conservation organizations for being mainstream, but it will never change. What can change is what is mainstream, so get on with good research, get it published, find out how to implement it in practice, then it will become part of the main stream. I am not saying shut up, only self-publicists attract money nowadays. We can all benefit from positive messages, let's hear some - things we can do !

Mike.
 
3) Please either concede or offer a rebuttal to my previous points. If you expect everyone else not to cherrypick.... How can we know that conservation interventions brought about by UK NGOs have demonstrably not worked? Without a 'national' control?

what is your conservation manifesto?

Surely the burden of proof rests with those advocating the conservation interventions you refer to, given the level of public expenditure this involves? You seem to be saying this is impossible, since by your criterion of absence of a control, it can’t be determined whether they have any effect, positive or negative.

Your position is therefore that we should continue to spend billions even though we cannot possibly know whether it works, just in case it is working. If I had a conservation manifesto, it certainly wouldn’t be that. However, my objective is to understand nature rather than to monetize it, which is why I object to the kind of Lysenkoism promulgated by the RSPB et al.

Yes but ... the theoretical models you pointed too may have nothing to do with the mechanism by which this happens at all !
True, but they are generally quite robust when tested ‘in situ’. See for instance ‘ideal free ducks’.

Another barrier to increasing migrant behaviour is the extent over which these agricultural changes are taking place. It isn't just a matter of moving a bit further and finding things as they were. the migrant would have to move much further _and_ have to change foraging behaviour _and_ food source.

Partial migrants from the UK generally move down into France/Iberia, so it’s this section of the population that would gain advantage and expand relative to residents. No novel behaviour would be required.

At the same time it is probably getting worse for birds where farmers have not taken steps to mitigate for changes in practice. What changes ? Machinery, combines, are much more efficient now. We simply do not leave so much spilt grain in the field. Herbicides are much better, and crop competition far more effective at inhibiting "weeds". Far fewer seed producing plants survive. Set aside has gone, which was an important source of seed. Winter cropping (i.e. sowing in autumn) is increasing, so less stubble is left into the winter, let alone through to the spring when the birds need the feed. Specialization of farms mean livestock areas are losing cereal cropping almost completely.

These are well-rehearsed arguments but they don’t amount to evidence as I’ve argued here.

How can the RSPB or other conservation NGOs be held responsible for that ?

If you sup with the devil you need a long spoon. My point is that NGOs throw their weight behind whichever scientific theory does most to support ‘gearing up’. The problem arises when the theory happens not to be true, and leads to policy that doesn’t work, no matter how well funded.

http://www.cpbell.co.uk
http://www.youtube.com/CultoftheAmateur
 
Partial migrants from the UK generally move down into France/Iberia, so it’s this section of the population that would gain advantage and expand relative to residents. No novel behaviour would be required.
Firstly, examples please of farmland seed eaters which exhibit this pattern of migration ?

Second, France most definitely has suffered the same sort of changes. Perhaps these are less pronounced further south into Spain.

Mike.
 
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