Oh courtesy and the internet, don't get me started!
Hope you'll find the discussion engaging and I'm keen to hear any points or criticisms you want to raise.
How did you possum-exorcism go? I'm visiting OZ for the first time in June and can't wait for all the new birds!
J
Joost, still! dealing with possums and repairs among other things, so the replies may come slowly ....
Ed nicely articulated my concerns about the assumptions previously, the main ones triggered were in relation to landscape interactions, etc.
Thanks for your offer of further information. I am independent, genuinely interested, and open one way or the other. Apolitical, I can't be pigeonholed as a this or that, which may not suit some!
It may help to gain an understanding of where I'm coming from.
I have previously asked various people with expertise on this forum for a simple pie or line chart of ALL the factors involved and quanta (even rough ranges), but was told it was too complex! and the science hadn't been done yet. I realize that this may be no small task given the unknown (apart from reconstructions) pre-history temperature, solar, etc records, some unknown variable starting conditions and rates, and even some chaotic (in the mathematical sense) interactions which may defy reliable modeling.
I am interested in the big picture rather than the minute of numerical analysis, and I'm of the view that correlation doesn't necessarily indicate causation. My biggest question would be what are ALL the factors that caused the climate to change in the past, and what are those ramifications for the future.
My interest in the whole (A)GW thing is mostly passing because of this and ranges from an ecological point of view (temperature, rainfall, stability, frequency, migration, adaptability), to a change management/sociology/politics point of view.
As far as I understand it the entire Earth's existence and suitability for habitation is a mere happenstance. The collision of the Moon with a formative Earth, resultant tilting (and wobbling, yawing), and orbit of the moon, would provide much of the foundations of our weather. If I understand correctly, the moon is on and ever slightly increasing orbital distance from the Earth which will one distant day cause issues. All of these variables have an effect of whatever direction and magnitude.
Of course I have similar questions of the impacts of Earth's orbit around the sun, and solar activity, and even questions of the effects of the Earth's internal radioactive decay, and continental plate drift, volcanic activity, natural CO2e emissions, etc.
I have witnessed catastrophic damage to this landscape since White Settlement a mere 200-odd years ago. Complete destruction of wetlands, hydrological, soil formation, and fertility cycles, massive drying of the land and deforestation/devegetation, and some areas destroyed through rampant salinity. Just about every creek, every river incised and eroded. Every road replete with insidious culverts - blasting precious soil away to eventually end up in the ocean (I wonder what the effect of this is on sea levels?!).
All of this happened prior to significant fossil fuel use, and I think is mirrored globally. Agriculture historically leading to desertification. The magnitude of these carbon movements is over 10 fold the magnitude of fossil fuel emissions. Some of our soils are down around ~1% carbon, when they should be 4%, and could possibly be double that.
There's the urban heat island effect to consider, and a few other things. (Is there any info on the effects of oilfields being set alight during war etc?). I should say that I'm also rather wary of government's demonstrated (particularly economically illiterate left leaning ones as we experienced) ability to effectively manage any meaningful change or even choose the correct problem to solve.
My understanding of this country's climate is that it is significantly influenced by the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), and some longer term cyclicals, one of which is on a ~600 year cycle and ended certain South American cultures last time it hit (floods). Any factual information on those more obscure longer cycles would be welcome.
So that's the guts of my thinking, and I would be interested in any comment or research progress in these areas, and anything else I have left out.
I would also be very interested in any comment or insight you have on our recent record summer temperatures AND the significant gap to previous records (for December) = 148 years (pre any A in AGW - so just what caused it?) as I detailed in post#76
http://www.birdforum.net/showpost.php?p=3538652&postcount=76
Below are some links to some latest landscape/hydrology/vegetation research you may find interesting:
https://eos.org/opinions/global-sig...s&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EosBuzz032417
http://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?t=342128
Chosun :gh: