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Upton Warren (15 Viewers)

My prediction for the return of the LRP would be the 9th March. based on Daves deviation never being standard. All I know is that this is more likley than the return of stolen tools or even the Cetti's.
 
My prediction for the return of the LRP would be the 9th March. based on Daves deviation never being standard. All I know is that this is more likley than the return of stolen tools or even the Cetti's.


ouch 8-P Trev
After a pretty depressing winter, No bitterns, no cettis, no hide, and now no tools, we are due a 'goodie' this spring.
I predict a southern European wader I wont elaborate but also a rare heron.
B :)John
 
Has anyone heard of any reports of Wildcat's in the vicinity of UW?. I know it sound silly but yesterday I watched a long thin cat hunting Mallard just behind the racks of canoe's at the sailing centre. I squeaked it to get a good look at it's face and it clearly had markings which I have never seen on the domestic variety. I googled Wildcats in Worcestershire and low and behold someone reported seeing same at UW but I cannot validate when the comment was posted on the internet. The pictures of wildcats on the internet tell me this was too close to dismiss it out of hand. I hadn't been drinking in case someone asks :)
 
Well I've never heard of a wildcat anywhere outside of their habitat, considering there are only c200 in the wild and that it is Britains rarest mammal I would be extremely surprised, however I would never say never :eek!:
 
My guess would be 15th March (the median date over the past 10 years). However, the standard deviation is 4.2 days and they are one of those species which has tended towards earlier arrival. Therefore, 95% confidence interval = 7th March - 23rd March.;)

Sy's guess of 14th March is also very likely and there is about a 1 in 2 chance of LRP arriving on or before that date (z= 0.23, Q=0.41).

Trust you Dave! All entries will go in my little black book so watch this space 8-P
 
My prediction for the LRP`S is 19th March.B :)
A couple of photo`s from last year.


Chris
 

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Has anyone heard of any reports of Wildcat's in the vicinity of UW?. I know it sound silly but yesterday I watched a long thin cat hunting Mallard just behind the racks of canoe's at the sailing centre. I squeaked it to get a good look at it's face and it clearly had markings which I have never seen on the domestic variety. I googled Wildcats in Worcestershire and low and behold someone reported seeing same at UW but I cannot validate when the comment was posted on the internet. The pictures of wildcats on the internet tell me this was too close to dismiss it out of hand. I hadn't been drinking in case someone asks :)

Hi
Have seen this cat a few times now coming out from behind cafe/ lorry park area it looks like a real pedigree to me, having been close to tame Wildcats in the past I think they would have him for breakfast!
Cheers Glenn
 
Hi
Have seen this cat a few times now coming out from behind cafe/ lorry park area it looks like a real pedigree to me, having been close to tame Wildcats in the past I think they would have him for breakfast!
Cheers Glenn

This bugger had a mallard in mind for it's breakfast so he must be a tough nut himself. Glad someone else has seen it then.
 
Today's highlights on the day the new hide was officially opened.

MOORS:
Shelduck (2)--------------------Pochard (12)
Teal (18)------------------------Tufted Duck (36)
Shoveler (25)-------------------G C Grebe (3)
Cormorant (21)---------------- Little Grebe
Snipe (8)------------------------Curlew (15)
Lapwing (c80)-------------------Coal Tit (calling at rear of east hide)

NORTH MOORS;
Teal (7 seen from new screens)

RIVER SALWARPE:
Lesser Redpoll (5)-----------------Treecreeper

SAILING POOL:
Oystercatcher (2) flew over-------G C Grebe (4)

FLASHES:
Teal (35)---------------------------Lapwing (c200)
Herring Gull (12) flew over.


Des.
 
I'm giving Trev the longest odds so far. The cumulative probability of LRP arriving on or before 9th March is about 0.076. Based on the data over the past 10 years, an arrival date that early should only happen once in the next 13 years.

LRP's are definitely getting earlier at UW, however, t(18) = 5.745, p <0.001 for the periods 1970- 1988 cf. 2002 - 2011. So this could be your year, Trev. B :)
 
These are images of the Curlew on the Moors on Sunday. I have posted the one that is just landing on the Trust's Facebook site as Numenius arquata however someone on the site has aked if it is N. orientalis rather than N. arquata. Has anybody got thoughts on this. Is it a possibilty that N.o. could be seen in this country. I think they are basing the id on the fact that this bird has 'very light flanks & all underwing coverts except upper coverts are white'.

Being a novice I have just assumed (yes I know the danger in that!) :) it's arquata not even realising there are Curlew variations!

Rob
 

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These are images of the Curlew on the Moors on Sunday. I have posted the one that is just landing on the Trust's Facebook site as Numenius arquata however someone on the site has aked if it is N. orientalis rather than N. arquata. Has anybody got thoughts on this. Is it a possibilty that N.o. could be seen in this country. I think they are basing the id on the fact that this bird has 'very light flanks & all underwing coverts except upper coverts are white'.

Being a novice I have just assumed (yes I know the danger in that!) :) it's arquata not even realising there are Curlew variations!

Rob

Lovely pics Rob. My view, for what its worth, is that orientalis is larger and the underwing is typically virtually unmarked white. This combined with a likelyhood of a lighter arquata individual probably means its an arquata.
 
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These are images of the Curlew on the Moors on Sunday. I have posted the one that is just landing on the Trust's Facebook site as Numenius arquata however someone on the site has aked if it is N. orientalis rather than N. arquata. Has anybody got thoughts on this. Is it a possibilty that N.o. could be seen in this country. I think they are basing the id on the fact that this bird has 'very light flanks & all underwing coverts except upper coverts are white'.

Being a novice I have just assumed (yes I know the danger in that!) :) it's arquata not even realising there are Curlew variations!

Rob

The far eastern subspecies of Curlew, Numenius arquata orientalis has on average paler ground colour cf. nominate eurasian subspecies Numenius arquata arquata, plus plumage variation and biometric differences that are often difficult to assess in the field. They are clinal with no sharp boundaries between forms. Add to this, the individual variations that exist within each subspecies and you get one very tough little cookie. Even with pin-sharp photos I'm guessing it would be very difficult to prove a geniuine orientalis form unless it was trapped. Maybe others know better.
 

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