[dwatsonbirder]

There is a lot of discussion on the next new birds for the UK, though a point which is barely discussed is the number of species (theoretically recorded if an observer was able to record from 18th Century until the collapse of the human species) which will eventually be recorded in the UK, given their current ecology and understanding of their movements.
Is there an endpoint for this figure, or given the time-scale would bird ecology evolve, with the outcome of sedentary species becoming migratory? I imagine that a baseline number could be given as the total number of species recorded in the WP, along with species which have yet to occur (yellow rumped flycatcher and eastern bluebird for example).

[Farnboro John]

You would have to include all seabirds except maybe penguins, and at least look at the Afrotropical given records such as Allen's Gallinule and European occurrences of e.g. Ruppell's Griffon.

I suspect it might be quite a long list.....

John

[O.Reville1989]

Originally Posted by dwatsonbirder

There is a lot of discussion on the next new birds for the UK, though a point which is barely discussed is the number of species (theoretically recorded if an observer was able to record from 18th Century until the collapse of the human species) which will eventually be recorded in the UK, given their current ecology and understanding of their movements.
Is there an endpoint for this figure, or given the time-scale would bird ecology evolve, with the outcome of sedentary species becoming migratory? I imagine that a baseline number could be given as the total number of species recorded in the WP, along with species which have yet to occur (yellow rumped flycatcher and eastern bluebird for example).

I would imagine the appearence of accidentals would be the limiting factor? I guess we could reach a point where species that could realistically turn up in the WP reaches a maximum, as certain species from outside the WP (Hummingbirds etc) lack the ability to reach the area.
So I suppose the end point would be when the WP has received all species that could realistically reach the area of their own accord.
Someone is going to ruin my theory and state that WP has had a hummingbird species now!

[James Lowther]

interesting question, no idea of the answer but i'm sure there are plenty of highly sedentary WP resident breeding species which would need to be subtracted as there is no realistic chance of them reaching britain
e.g. corsican nuthatch, rock partridge etc. etc.

would be interested what the result would be if you totted up all migratory holarctic breeders (minus nearctic species with no ability to make long sea crossings), all pelagic seabirds and all afrotropical species with a tendency to wander north of the sahara.....

1000?

1500?

cheers,
James

[dwatsonbirder]

My thinking was that it would be somewhere in 800-1000 species region. Of course this is all theoretical, especially as observer coverage means that species undoubtably pass through unrecorded (hate to think about that one...) and will continue to do so. In answer to you question Oliver, though I was sure there was a record of Ruby throated hummingbird from Iceland, it doesnt appear on the BUBO WP list.

[jurek]

You could make such a list!

[MJB]

Originally Posted by O.Reville1989

Someone is going to ruin my theory and state that WP has had a hummingbird species now!

If you had just said 'Palearctic' (I still prefer the 'Palæarctic' spelling because the use of the diphthong indicates the pronunciation), your theory indeed would have been ruined - at least one and arguably two species of hummingbird have reached the Chukotskiy Peninsula from Alaska, but as isolated vagrants...
MJB

[MJB]

Originally Posted by James Lowther

Interesting question, no idea of the answer but I'm sure there are plenty of highly sedentary WP resident breeding species which would need to be subtracted as there is no realistic chance of them reaching Britain. e.g. Corsican Nuthatch, Rock Partridge etc. etc.
cheers, James

James,
Yes and no, for UK has been an island for a relatively short time (see http://www.qpg.geog.cam.ac.uk/resear...nnelformation/), and so some sedentary species that are not primarily montane or Mediterranean island specialists could well have travelled here and then died out...
MJB
PS Sorry if the cited source offends anyone of creationist inclination...

[dantheman]

Nothing can be ruled out ... but with cagebirds and other escapes from zoos any number of 'exotics' which turn up on these shores over the next decades/centuries might have a hard time in being accepted as 'of wild provenance' ... Daurian Starling etc etc

I suspect the thoughts of future generations on splitting and lumping (eg cryptic species) might well have some major influence. A number of subspecies have occurred already which could conceivably be split. (Admittedly, documentation may be a little lacking for some earlier records, in part at least because people gave less importance to their occurrence).

And as the centuries roll on, whether mass extinctions as a result of man's influence on the planet happens remains to be seen. Global climate change/flipping of the earth's poles may also have a significant effect the other way.

And of course that Hastings guy may be re-instated as a good chap ...

[dantheman]

btw agree with the numbers of species that have occurred already/get missed, but not been recorded. In the times when good falls of American passerines (and other groups) occurred on the Scillies (80's/90's), a large number of yanks must have been scattered throughout the west side of the UK and Ireland, including a further range of species. And then there's the decades preceeding when there were no birders/twitchers ...

Don't know about the climate/weather patterns 500 years ago, but if summer/autumnal blows/hurricanes came across from the Americas back then (and centuries preceeding), I wouldn't be surprised if all the migratory eastern North American species (and a few from the west) have occurred in the Western P, and the UK too. Given the time scale and much higher populations of many species.

The Sahara won't always have been/will remain such a barrier either ...

[jurek]

Sure, weather patterns and vargancy changes within so little as several decades. Scilly is now much worse for Nearctic passerines than in 1970s, but southern raritites might become commoner in warming climate (if it is really getting warmer - last winters were freezing).

Several seabirds could be added if pelagics become regular in Britain. Herald Petrel and White-bellied Storm-Petrel already almosty made it.