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Old Tuesday 8th August 2017, 12:25   #201
fugl
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Be interesting to see how Dumbo reacts--

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/07/c...ore-ipad-share
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Old Wednesday 9th August 2017, 14:17   #202
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A no-brainer, I'm afraid--

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/u...ore-ipad-share
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Old Wednesday 9th August 2017, 14:29   #203
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Afaik, the NYT released the latest draft of the USG Climate Change Special Report, which is still in process.

The previous draft, dated December and posted in March, is here:
https://archive.org/details/CSSRTODALL

It will be interesting to see what changes, if any, are made from the earlier version.
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Old Wednesday 9th August 2017, 23:10   #204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Afaik, the NYT released the latest draft of the USG Climate Change Special Report, which is still in process.

The previous draft, dated December and posted in March, is here:
https://archive.org/details/CSSRTODALL

It will be interesting to see what changes, if any, are made from the earlier version.
The latest draft has increased from 413 to 673 pages, or 63% no doubt reflecting the ever-growing consensus of those contributing to the report.

Ed
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Old Wednesday 9th August 2017, 23:33   #205
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The latest draft has increased from 413 to 673 pages, or 63% no doubt reflecting the ever-growing consensus of those contributing to the report.
Not so much that, I would think, than a reflection of the ever-accumulating and increasingly convincing evidence in support of AGW. . ..
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Old Thursday 10th August 2017, 04:53   #206
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Lies, damn lies and statistics...

You mean THIS NYT??
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...f0a0f#comments

It's laughable.
And one can't help but notice how the Australian temperature manipulation scandal has been AVOIDED here at the BF by AGW 'peer review' worshipers.
Inconvenient truths.
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Old Thursday 10th August 2017, 21:05   #207
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
Afaik, the NYT released the latest draft of the USG Climate Change Special Report, which is still in process.

The previous draft, dated December and posted in March, is here:
https://archive.org/details/CSSRTODALL

It will be interesting to see what changes, if any, are made from the earlier version.
etudiant,

I ran across the attached article that addresses your question and is well worth reading. It takes a bit of head scratching, but that's the challenge in understanding how experts lie with statistics. The report is convoluted, indeed.

Overall, the report presents "Key Findings" with descriptions of subjective confidence ratings and outcome likelihoods. The aggregation methodology is presented on pg. 8, with a table of confidence rating categories and likelihood ranges on pg. 14. (see attachment) It is basically an extension of the IPCC methodology fabricated years ago out of whole cloth.

Leaving domain content aside (i.e., the underlying climate research materials), the much-debated methods for aggregating probabilistic data fall under the rubric of mathematical decision theory, which is a subset of quantitative psychology and related fields, e.g., econometrics, and in this case specifically Bayesian inference. Such expertise does not appear to be represented among the authors.

From that perspective, my own appraisal is that the opinion blending methodology underlying the report is basically a cruel joke. It may appear to be sophisticated and correct to the lay reader, but unfortunately that's what shams are all about.

Ed
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Old Thursday 10th August 2017, 21:36   #208
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Of conspiracy theories (and the accompanying unscholarly language) there's no end! AGWers aren't just wrong, they're liars and scammers in service of some vaguely (if at all) specified "political" agenda.

Homewood, for God's sake, there's a source for you!!
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Old Friday 11th August 2017, 02:23   #209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fugl View Post
Of conspiracy theories (and the accompanying unscholarly language) there's no end! AGWers aren't just wrong, they're liars and scammers in service of some vaguely (if at all) specified "political" agenda.

Homewood, for God's sake, there's a source for you!!
Fugl, that's unworthy of you.
Ad hominem in an argument is not the way.

Elkcub objected to the methodology used, not the data.
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Old Friday 11th August 2017, 02:55   #210
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Fugl, that's unworthy of you.
Ad hominem in an argument is not the way.

Elkcub objected to the methodology used, not the data.
I'm at a loss to understand the relevance of your comment to what I've said in my post. What in it strikes you as "ad hominem" (not the reference to Homewood, surely, but if so I plead guilty!) and, for that matter, what are the conspiracy theories branding the entire AGW "community" with self-interested motives (which elkcub has done more than once in his posts), but the argumentum ad hominem writ large?
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Old Friday 11th August 2017, 17:50   #211
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I'm at a loss to understand the relevance of your comment to what I've said in my post. What in it strikes you as "ad hominem" (not the reference to Homewood, surely, but if so I plead guilty!) and, for that matter, what are the conspiracy theories branding the entire AGW "community" with self-interested motives (which elkcub has done more than once in his posts), but the argumentum ad hominem writ large?
Don't you see that starting with the statement 'Of conspiracy theories...' and then mocking Homewood, presumably one of the references, might be seen as an Ad hominem attack rather than a measured response?

I saw nothing in Elkcub's posting about conspiracy, at most a claim that the document expressed conclusions not clearly supported by the actual evidence.
Having participated in some of these advisory group processes, that does not surprise in the least. Indeed, it is the default course for committees, to support the existing theme.
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Old Friday 11th August 2017, 19:03   #212
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Don't you see that starting with the statement 'Of conspiracy theories...' and then mocking Homewood, presumably one of the references, might be seen as an Ad hominem attack rather than a measured response?

I saw nothing in Elkcub's posting about conspiracy, at most a claim that the document expressed conclusions not clearly supported by the actual evidence.
Having participated in some of these advisory group processes, that does not surprise in the least. Indeed, it is the default course for committees, to support the existing theme.
Here's how Homewood concludes his article, the only source cited by Elkcub (other than a short excerpt on statistical matters from the draft report).

"It was imperative therefore that this information be suppressed.

This new piece of evidence proves beyond doubt that the purpose of this latest climate report is a purely political one, designed to get across a particular message, regardless of the actual facts."

If that isn't a conspiracy theory, I don't know what is! And one that Elkcub isn't entirely unsympathetic to as you would see for yourself if you took the trouble to read through his earlier postings to this long and contentious thread.

[All this being said, I have respect for Elkcub--though we disagree on a lot of things--and would be uncomfortable with further discussion of his views when he's here to defend them himself (if he so wishes, of course).]
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Old Friday 11th August 2017, 20:35   #213
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The Axis of Climate Evil. . ..

"What becomes clear to anyone following the climate debate, however, is that hardly any climate skeptics are in fact trying to get at the truth. . ..I can’t think of a single prominent climate skeptic who isn’t obviously arguing in bad faith."
--Paul Krugman

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/11/o...ore-ipad-share
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Old Friday 11th August 2017, 22:20   #214
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More "politicalization", from the no-nothing right as always--

http://politi.co/2uyfRd7
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Old Saturday 12th August 2017, 04:16   #215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fugl View Post
..
--Paul Krugman
All one needs to read....

This 'economist' proclaimed that the stock market would immediately implode with the election of DJT....
Most of us know how that is going....the markets have been astronomical. The economy is breaking records right now.

Sounds about right, Krugman is a loony fave of the progressive left. BFF with Fugs.

And babbling about 'skeptics arguing in bad faith' is rich indeed.

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Old Yesterday, 21:50   #216
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Fortunately, the chances of major infra-structure work occurring on Dumbo's watch are virtually nil--

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...limate-change/
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