James Emerson
Norwich Birder
As you say, there are three options, however they are not all as likely - it is twice as likely that there will be a male and a female than 2 males or two females.
-
Welcome to BirdForum, the internet's largest birding community with thousands of members from all over the world. The forums are dedicated to wild birds, birding, binoculars and equipment and all that goes with it.
Please register for an account to take part in the discussions in the forum, post your pictures in the gallery and more.
Might Waxwings breed? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Andy1979
- Start date
dantheman
Bah humbug
:-O
It should be the same as with coins, which I've since remembered -
Flip 2 coins (or the same coin once, then again);
chance of 2 heads - 25%
chance of 2 tails - 25%
chance of head, then tail - 25%
chance of tail, then head - 25%
All eventualities covered, an odd pairing (any combination of a head and a tail) being 25+25 =50%
(Which is basically what James Emerson said in post #14)
Flipping Waxwings, would be more fun though!
Just as long as you don't get red wine on your best jeans ...
It should be the same as with coins, which I've since remembered -
Flip 2 coins (or the same coin once, then again);
chance of 2 heads - 25%
chance of 2 tails - 25%
chance of head, then tail - 25%
chance of tail, then head - 25%
All eventualities covered, an odd pairing (any combination of a head and a tail) being 25+25 =50%
(Which is basically what James Emerson said in post #14)
Flipping Waxwings, would be more fun though!
Indeed, Dan! Sorry, too much red wine today...
And to think my daughter got a maths PhD. It's definitely not in the genes...
Just as long as you don't get red wine on your best jeans ...
Phil Carter
Well-known member
Isn't that dependent on knowing the ratio of males to females in the population?
This hangover is starting early.
Phil
Richard Klim
-------------------------
I think I should get some of those French breathalyzer thingies, and always use one before posting on BirdForum.
PS. I'd probably still post, but I could include a qualifying footnote stating whether I was pissed or not. B
Last edited:
Brian2
Well-known member
I'm with Phil
option one / two males
option two / two females
option three / a pair
so a one in three chance they are a couple so 33%
but I do get the increased odds of is the male that bird or the other adding to the odds
be great to think they had hung around to breed though whatever the odds.
B
option one / two males
option two / two females
option three / a pair
so a one in three chance they are a couple so 33%
but I do get the increased odds of is the male that bird or the other adding to the odds
be great to think they had hung around to breed though whatever the odds.
B
Richard Klim
-------------------------
No! Dan and James are right...
- ♂♂
- ♂♀
- ♀♂
- ♀♀
Brian2
Well-known member
surely that only applies if you are bothered about which one is the male and which one is the female? if you are only interested in them being a pair then it has to be 1/3but then again perhaps you're right and I'm drunk? B
Mark Lew1s
My real name is Mark Lewis
I'm with Phil
option one / two males
option two / two females
option three / a pair
so a one in three chance they are a couple so 33%
but I do get the increased odds of is the male that bird or the other adding to the odds
be great to think they had hung around to breed though whatever the odds.
B
Dan is right a few posts up - it's definitely a 50% chance of being a pair. There are 4 options:
2 males
2 females
A male and a female
A female and a male
All of which have the same probability. Two of the options make a pair though, so the chance of 2 birds being a pair are 50/50, barring getting complicated with sex ratios and pre breeding behaviour.
Cheshire Birder
Well-known member
Aside from the probabilities of them being a pair (which is 50%), according to what i've read they could be in potential breeding habitat.
CB
CB
Mark Lew1s
My real name is Mark Lewis
Have you ever seen a minging waxwing?
Trystan
Well-known member
Not being a waxwing myself, I don't feel I'm in a position to judge.
MJB
Well-known member
Samuel Perfect
Well-known member
Brian2
Well-known member
3
I still only see a third in it as I wouldn't care which is male and which is female therefore only three situations
both male
both female
a pair
so a one in three chance of them being a pair.....33% if you like
the 50% only kicks in if you start to think male and female bird or female and male bird but all we need to know is are they a pair.
still I'm not losing any sleep over it and I do seem to be the only person here who's going with the 33% option so perhaps I'm wrong but regardless it would still be good to think there was a pair and they could find some way of breeding in the UK but don't take any gambling advise from me as I'm clearly not good at working out the odds. :smoke:
I still only see a third in it as I wouldn't care which is male and which is female therefore only three situations
both male
both female
a pair
so a one in three chance of them being a pair.....33% if you like
the 50% only kicks in if you start to think male and female bird or female and male bird but all we need to know is are they a pair.
still I'm not losing any sleep over it and I do seem to be the only person here who's going with the 33% option so perhaps I'm wrong but regardless it would still be good to think there was a pair and they could find some way of breeding in the UK but don't take any gambling advise from me as I'm clearly not good at working out the odds. :smoke:
bongofury
Well-known member
Take one Waxwing. That bird has to be a male or a female. In this example, say it is a male.
Take another Waxwing. It is 50% chance it is a female, therefore 50 % chance of a pair.
And just for those on the wine (still), let's assume the first bird is a female. Now we come to the second bird; there is a 50% chance of this being a male and so the theory holds true again.
Take another Waxwing. It is 50% chance it is a female, therefore 50 % chance of a pair.
And just for those on the wine (still), let's assume the first bird is a female. Now we come to the second bird; there is a 50% chance of this being a male and so the theory holds true again.
dantheman
Bah humbug
You are.
You should.
Go and get 2 coins. Decide that heads are male and tails are female (or perhaps the other way around if you're a feminist). Flip them both, and write down the outcome (heads or tails OR male and female if you like).
Do this a hundred times.
Report back on here how many times you had -
a) 2 heads
b) 2 tails
c) a head and a tail
Don't have too much fun.
:t:
(Edit: Waxwings don't like being flipped (they tend to fly away or worse), so you have to use something else, like coins, even if they are unlikely to actually produce offspring etc).
Last edited:
Phil Carter
Well-known member
Although with coins you know that there are exactly the same number of heads as tails. Unless we know that there exactly the same number of males as females in the waxwing population as a whole then surely that analogy doesn't stand up.
Phil
Phil
Brian2
Well-known member
Similar threads
