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The 6th mass extinction (1 Viewer)

One of the reports authors was Paul Erlich, the perpetual doom monger. who has been proved wildly wrong on every pronouncement he has ever made. So not a good start!

I do have a problem with comparing modern extinction rates with palaeo rates: for example a random bird book pulled of the shelf has 25 species Phylloscopus warbler, even if they successfully fossilised they would be undifferentiated in that form. Species counts in the past are unknown to level of modern species standards, one is simply not comparing like with like.
 
One of the reports authors was Paul Erlich, the perpetual doom monger. who has been proved wildly wrong on every pronouncement he has ever made. So not a good start!

I do have a problem with comparing modern extinction rates with palaeo rates: for example a random bird book pulled of the shelf has 25 species Phylloscopus warbler, even if they successfully fossilised they would be undifferentiated in that form. Species counts in the past are unknown to level of modern species standards, one is simply not comparing like with like.

So, you're saying we're not at the start of a great extinction?
 
I would say on balance it would firmly be in the not-proven camp. The rates of previous mass extinctions cannot be judged against modern events, for instance the date resolution of the Permian fossil record is greater than all human history.

The motivation of most of "The Sixth Extinction" hyperbole is firmly in the "We're all going to hell in handcart" school of environmentalism. The prediction record of that camp is frankly laughable, and the same often misanthropic tropes get dragged out each time.

There is another deeper question about why even should one care. Even if another extinction is in progress, so what? The timescales are immaterial to human civilisation, let alone an individual lifetime. Sure I love walking through a wildflower meadow and seeing birds and the beasts, but should my love for idea of untrammelled Amazon rainforest take precedence over a poor South American wanting a job or a US retiree whose pension fund is invested in palm oil futures? All things must pass, human civilisation will end, my nieces' and nephews' nieces and nephews will surely die. The world turns, the genes mutate and flow between their hosts and life goes on.

I often see it as a choice; to see the wonder and the beauty of the world and of human art, industry and inventiveness or to wallow in the venality of some and deplore the horror. It may all seem a bit Panglossian, but there is a rationality behind it all, historically the optimists are right more often than the pessimists.
 
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I would say on balance it would firmly be in the not-proven camp. The rates of previous mass extinctions cannot be judged against modern events, for instance the date resolution of the Permian fossil record is greater than all human history.

The motivation of most of "The Sixth Extinction" hyperbole is firmly in the "We're all going to hell in handcart" school of environmentalism. The prediction record of that camp is frankly laughable, and the same often misanthropic tropes get dragged out each time.

There is another deeper question about why even should one care. Even if another extinction is in progress, so what? The timescales are immaterial to human civilisation, let alone an individual lifetime. Sure I love walking through a wildflower meadow and seeing birds and the beasts, but should my love for idea of untrammelled Amazon rainforest take precedence over a poor South American wanting a job or a US retiree whose pension fund is invested in palm oil futures? All things must pass, human civilisation will end, my nieces' and nephews' nieces and nephews will surely die. The world turns, the genes mutate and flow between their hosts and life goes on.

I often see it as a choice; to see the wonder and the beauty of the world and of human art, industry and inventiveness or to wallow in the venality of some and deplore the horror. It may all seem a bit Panglossian, but there is a rationality behind it all, historically the optimists are right more often than the pessimists.

Well put! :t:

Ed
 
I would say on balance it would firmly be in the not-proven camp. The rates of previous mass extinctions cannot be judged against modern events, for instance the date resolution of the Permian fossil record is greater than all human history.

The motivation of most of "The Sixth Extinction" hyperbole is firmly in the "We're all going to hell in handcart" school of environmentalism. The prediction record of that camp is frankly laughable, and the same often misanthropic tropes get dragged out each time.

There is another deeper question about why even should one care. Even if another extinction is in progress, so what? The timescales are immaterial to human civilisation, let alone an individual lifetime. Sure I love walking through a wildflower meadow and seeing birds and the beasts, but should my love for idea of untrammelled Amazon rainforest take precedence over a poor South American wanting a job or a US retiree whose pension fund is invested in palm oil futures? All things must pass, human civilisation will end, my nieces' and nephews' nieces and nephews will surely die. The world turns, the genes mutate and flow between their hosts and life goes on.

I often see it as a choice; to see the wonder and the beauty of the world and of human art, industry and inventiveness or to wallow in the venality of some and deplore the horror. It may all seem a bit Panglossian, but there is a rationality behind it all, historically the optimists are right more often than the pessimists.

Thanks for the detailed reply. I'm afraid your kind of thoroughgoing fatalism is way beyond my capacity to emotionally disconnect from the near-term future, something true, I think, of most people--on whichever side of the present question they find themselves. And that, in my opinion, is a good thing, human nature on one of its better days.

"Kosmos makros, chronos paradoksos!"
 
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Well put! :t:

Ed

Agreed. Well put, Mono.

One has to wonder how some of these doom-sayers even function living under such pressure.
I spotted a Western Tanager on our ranch today; it was whistling on a willow branch unaware of my presence. I tried in vain to get a photo but failed.
Was about moved to tears by such an amazing sight. Absolute beauty.
 
I agree with the pessimists. Many species (e.g. insects) occur in very restricted areas. Most of them are poorly known or not even discovered. But when these areas (e.g. Indonesia, Mata Atlantica) will be destroyed these species are in danger to go extinct. But that what makes me most angry is the increasing rate of poaching and trafficking in Africa and Asia.
 
I agree with the pessimists. Many species (e.g. insects) occur in very restricted areas. Most of them are poorly known or not even discovered. But when these areas (e.g. Indonesia, Mata Atlantica) will be destroyed these species are in danger to go extinct. But that what makes me most angry is the increasing rate of poaching and trafficking in Africa and Asia.

Have to agree. Whether or not we're technically in a "great extinction", the losses to our flora and fauna are likely to be terrific in the coming decades. Everything points to this: exploding human populations, feckless political leadership, weak (and weakening) supra-national environmental regulatory controls, unfettered capitalism involving huge corporations with assets exceeding those of many nation-stares. To shrug all this off and smell the roses strikes me as totally irresponsible.
 
I agree with the pessimists. Many species (e.g. insects) occur in very restricted areas. Most of them are poorly known or not even discovered. But when these areas (e.g. Indonesia, Mata Atlantica) will be destroyed these species are in danger to go extinct. But that what makes me most angry is the increasing rate of poaching and trafficking in Africa and Asia.

If anything will facilitate the mass killing of insects, it is that the massive chem-trail out there. Some of us have harped on the rampant use of pesticides and herbicides for a long time.
As it relates to humans, only now are we finally seeing an outcry about the cancerous effects of glyphosate in Monsanto's Roundup.

It is amazing the toxic lengths people will go to for a lush, green lawn.
I'll live knee deep in weeds and bugs before I'd apply any such product to my property.
 
If anything will facilitate the mass killing of insects, it is that the massive chem-trail out there. Some of us have harped on the rampant use of pesticides and herbicides for a long time.
As it relates to humans, only now are we finally seeing an outcry about the cancerous effects of glyphosate in Monsanto's Roundup.

It is amazing the toxic lengths people will go to for a lush, green lawn.
I'll live knee deep in weeds and bugs before I'd apply any such product to my property.

I take it you're talking about dear leader's golf courses? ;)

Ed
 
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As a paleontologist, let me chime in that we are quite aware of time averaging effects and the vagaries of the fossil record, and analyses of extinction events can account for these in numerous ways, including:

Looking at generic level instead of species level (which removes at least some uncertainty for certain groups)
rarification and other statistical methods that provide a degree of "averaging" across time slices with inequal preservation

The other thing to keep in mind is when you put the "date" of the 6th extinction. We see a massive wave of extinctions across the globe synchronous with human arrival (and for the most part not synchronous with climatic events, and usually preceding major habitat changes). The 6th extinction isn't something that started yesterday, but has been preceding for thousands of years. Extinction estimates for the South Pacific put 3,000 bird species as going extinct for instance due to Polynesian arrivals. Multiple species of elephant were present on practically every continent with the exception of Antarctica and Australia: Now we have just 3 species, all endangered and suffering from habitat loss and hunting.
 
As a paleontologist, let me chime in that we are quite aware of time averaging effects and the vagaries of the fossil record, and analyses of extinction events can account for these in numerous ways, including:

Looking at generic level instead of species level (which removes at least some uncertainty for certain groups)
rarification and other statistical methods that provide a degree of "averaging" across time slices with inequal preservation

The other thing to keep in mind is when you put the "date" of the 6th extinction. We see a massive wave of extinctions across the globe synchronous with human arrival (and for the most part not synchronous with climatic events, and usually preceding major habitat changes). The 6th extinction isn't something that started yesterday, but has been preceding for thousands of years. Extinction estimates for the South Pacific put 3,000 bird species as going extinct for instance due to Polynesian arrivals. Multiple species of elephant were present on practically every continent with the exception of Antarctica and Australia: Now we have just 3 species, all endangered and suffering from habitat loss and hunting.

Indeed, as you say, a great extinction can play out over a very extended period of time (by everyday human standards) and once initiated needn't proceed at a uniform rate but can move in fits and starts. And right now, it seems to me, we're in the throes of one hell of a "fit". Whether mankind, as a collectivity of competing nation-states, will develop the will and capability to significantly mitigate the disaster, I don't know, but I'm unwilling to give up the effort quite yet, particularly at the national and local levels. [At the level of my own particular nation-state, an important first-step would be getting the current incumbent out of the White House tout suite!]
 
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