2017 Atlantic hurricane season (1 Viewer)

locustella · Sep 8, 2017

2017 Atlantic hurricane season seems to be very intense. Especially due to ongoing unusually strong and larger than Florida hurricane Irma, which in days will reach that state.. This is very boring, but perhaps that can have something to do with global warming ? There were also very heavy winds in some countries. High frequency of such unusual events is suspicious.

Sometimes hurricanes and earthquakes occur at the same time. It is difficult to believe that the atmospheric pressure can move continental plates, but correlation is visible sometimes. There was the strongest in recent 100 years earthquake in Mexico yesterday or few days ago. Close to the Irma and simultaneously with it. Several years ago a rare earthquake in USA took place, along with a strong hurricane too, just after it.
Or maybe the same hypothetical factor is affecting both - hurricanes and the earth's crust. But it is difficult to believe that light atmosphere could have such strength.

Moreover North Korea is testing its nuclear weapons one after one, recently the thermonuclear bomb. But during cold war some countries were testing much more powerful bombs and nothing happened. So this factor rather doesn't influence earthquakes, but it is better to keep eye on it, just in case.

Nohatch · Sep 8, 2017

The link between hurricane intensity and sea surface temperatures is not straightforward. For example Michaels et al (2007) in Geophysical Research Letters:
Whereas there is a significant relationship between overall sea-surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone intensity, the relationship is much less clear in the upper range of SST normally associated with these storms. There, we find a step-like, rather than a continuous, influence of SST on cyclone strength, suggesting that there exists a SST threshold that must be exceeded before tropical cyclones develop into major hurricanes. Further, we show that the SST influence varies markedly over time, thereby indicating that other aspects of the tropical environment are also critically important for tropical cyclone intensification. These findings highlight the complex nature of hurricane development and weaken the notion of a simple cause-and-effect relationship between rising SST and stronger Atlantic hurricanes.

Therefore it is too simplistic to say global warming is directly responsible for the strength of Irma.

Vecchi & Soden in Nature (2007):
The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is widely debated. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures provide a more favourable environment for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones, but cyclone genesis and intensity are also affected by the vertical thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere. Here we use climate models and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone ‘potential intensity’—a measure that provides an upper bound on cyclone intensity and can also reflect the likelihood of cyclone development. We find that changes in local sea surface temperature are inadequate for characterizing even the sign of changes in potential intensity, but that long-term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa.

I think this Miami Herald article sums it up pretty well:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article171632462.html

About your suggested link between the atmosphere and the geosphere, I'm afraid that's nonsense sorry.

locustella · Sep 9, 2017

Global warming is not only about the sea temperature.
And global warming is spoiled climate, lets say #1. Unusually frequent and strong hurricanes are spoiled climate too (#2).
Maybe spoiled climate #1 is the same as spoiled climate #2 whatever they are ? There is high probability, that #1 = #2. Because otherwise we would deal with two separate severe climate changes:
- global warming
- other than global warming climate change, unknown to the science, causing hurricanes

Nohatch said:
About your suggested link between the atmosphere and the geosphere, I'm afraid that's nonsense sorry.

Perhaps nobody calculated that. The diameter of the Irma hurricane is equal to the length of Florida:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/09...-it-larger-than-the-state-of-florida-is-long/
The wind can move the sailboat on the water, maybe a hurricane can move slightly a tectonic plate if it is on the verge of breaking through some step. Tectonic plates do not move smoothly. It looks a little like stress generation, breaking something and leap, or going through difficult and easier steps, what causes the earthquake. And if hurricane appears just before such leap or easier step, perhaps it can come faster ? But probably hurricanes are too weak.

elkcub · Sep 9, 2017

Some reference data from Wiki.

Ed

locustella · Sep 9, 2017

People are prepared or evacuated, Irma won't be very deadly, but perhaps one of strongest on record if does not get weaker. We are talking about the number of hurricanes and their strength and size, not impact. Impact can be changed by people and is not relevant.

litebeam · Sep 9, 2017

The fact is that if we were enduring more hurricanes it would be reported as the direct result of AGW; we've seen this in the past.. Fewer hurricanes? AGW. More intense? AGW. Less intense? AGW.

These people will bend and twist anything to fit their AGW narrative. And those that question and demand proof are outcast as loons and deniers. It's no wonder that climate loons have zero credibility.

locustella · Sep 9, 2017

Someone writes here:
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...the-atlantic-whats-the-role-of-climate-change
that very strong hurricane seasons were in years 2005 and 2010 and ocean temperature was high those years. The same situation is in 20017.
Another article supporting the view, that global warming makes hurricanes stronger:
http://time.com/4933743/hurricane-irma-climate-change-global-warming/

elkcub · Sep 9, 2017

locustella said:
People are prepared or evacuated, Irma won't be very deadly, but perhaps one of strongest on record if does not get weaker. We are talking about the number of hurricanes and their strength and size, not impact. Impact can be changed by people and is not relevant.

Who are the 'we' you're talking about? Factually, the chart shows:

Dates active
Category
Wind speed
Pressure
Areas affected
Damage USD
Deaths

Of the 20 events listed between 1870 and the present, eleven were Cat 4-5. Of those, four were Cat 5 and six were Cat 4. The so-called "largest/strongest on record" refers to those with satellite images, which were taken after NASA's TIROS-1 in 1960. Nowadays, one would have to paleo-reconstruct Cat 4/5 hurricanes in the latter 19th and early 20th centuries, probably using the other variables listed on the chart.

As for the highlighted sentence, the available databases do not suggest increasing hurricanes, strength, or size. Don't confuse models with reality; or conjecture with empirical fact (as in your references above).

What Michael Mann and the other circulation modelers have to say is completely predictable, which is to say there is no information content.

Ed

locustella · Sep 9, 2017

You don't understand. I said that attached by the user elkcub .pdf file with human casualties (impact) is not relevant to global warming, because impact can be changed by people.

By the way. one looking at this image:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/3dd6938c073daa006c5cef97e572f2a0.png
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records
could get impression, than number of storms and even hurricanes is increasing. I wouldn't reject the hypothesis, that global warming influences hurricanes. Because this may be true. Such possibility exists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Miscellaneous_records
Highest forward speed - most of the fastest hurricanes are since 1970.
Similarly number of tornadoes spawned by hurricanes seems to be largest since 2000s.
Most severe landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in the United States unfortunately (in a way) are not necessarily the recent ones.
Similarly most intense Atlantic hurricanes. But if data were collected regularly, they started actually since 1969.

elkcub · Sep 10, 2017

...I wouldn't reject the hypothesis, that global warming influences hurricanes.

Unfortunately, the phrase "global warming" is not specific, and the word "influences" is also vague and unmeasurable.

These would have to be operationalized before any 'hypothesis' could be tested. So, there is currently no basis for accepting or rejecting anything.

I would not argue the fact that the earth has been warning since the last ice age, and that there probably is a dynamic influence on observable phenomena we call hurricanes. However, concern about 'global warming' nowadays usually means anthropogenic global warming, which would be a much more difficult sub-hypothesis to formalize and validate.

Ed

litebeam · Sep 10, 2017

elkcub said:
Unfortunately, the phrase "global warming" is not specific, and the word "influences" is also vague and unmeasurable.

These would have to be operationalized before any 'hypothesis' could be tested. So, there is currently no basis for accepting or rejecting anything.

I would not argue the fact that the earth has been warning since the last ice age, and that there probably is a dynamic influence on observable phenomena we call hurricanes. However, concern about 'global warming' nowadays usually means anthropogenic global warming, which would be a much more difficult sub-hypothesis to formalize and validate.

Ed

Well stated.

Nohatch · Sep 11, 2017

elkcub said:
So, there is currently no basis for accepting or rejecting anything.

I agree with Ed on this one; whilst in theory some of the effects of a warmer climate 'should' lead to changes in hurricane intensity, frequency, behaviour etc. our existing record is too short to confirm this, yet. That's what I was trying to say by quoting those two studies in my earlier response.

Whilst emerging internet memes like "Trump doesn't believe in climate change and the planet goes...hold my beer" (over a picture of Irma) are mildly amusing they are also incorrect or at least premature.

Also please do not conflate increased greenhouse gas levels with air pollution as per your 'spoiled climate' comment. The earth has seen periods of high greenhouse gas levels (and consequent warm global climate) in the geological past, for example during the Mesozoic and more recently Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. We as a species are currently in the process of replicating the latter event by actively influencing the global carbon cycle (i.e. removing it from long-term storage in the geosphere and giving it an active role in the bio-, hydro- and atmosphere). In a basic sense climate cannot be 'spoilt', which isn't to say it cannot be altered with plenty of negative effects for many species on our planet.

Nohatch · Sep 11, 2017

locustella said:
The wind can move the sailboat on the water, maybe a hurricane can move slightly a tectonic plate if it is on the verge of breaking through some step. Tectonic plates do not move smoothly. It looks a little like stress generation, breaking something and leap, or going through difficult and easier steps, what causes the earthquake. And if hurricane appears just before such leap or easier step, perhaps it can come faster ? But probably hurricanes are too weak.

I'm afraid the atmosphere simply isn't strong enough to do that (not enough mass and energy). The hydrosphere can if you have enough ice (see geostatic rebound).
Also, the earthquake was off the Pacific coast of Chiapas, about a thousand km away from where Katia made landfall.

Nohatch · Sep 11, 2017

litebeam said:
It's no wonder that climate loons have zero credibility.

That is a minority view, even within the US: http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2016/

And it's 'Divers' in more civilised parts 8-P

Joost

locustella · Sep 11, 2017

Nohatch said:
the earthquake was off the Pacific coast of Chiapas, about a thousand km away from where Katia made landfall.

The atmosphere is probably not strong enough, but the earthquake took place simply on the verge of plates, what means nothing. The verge of plates is part of the same plate, over which the hurricane was moving. Like other part of the same lever.

locustella · Sep 15, 2017

NPS (National Park Service) Hurricane and Severe Weather Response
https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/news/severe-weather-response.htm

They don't link these ongoing natural disasters across the USA (hurricanes, wildfires) to the global warming, but they considered them as something very unusual, since they created such a site.

Jon Turner · Sep 15, 2017

The track of Jose is now looking more favourable, heading up the eastern seaboard - admittedly quite a way offshore.

KC Foggin · Sep 15, 2017

Thankfully, we should just get some strong waves and riptide and a bit of wind with Jose.

dcw · Sep 16, 2017

Hopefully Irma did not cause the extinction of any species. Some areas with endemics were deeply impacted such as the Cuban cayes, Andros Island in Bahamas with the rare Bahamas Oriole, Inugua with a hummingbird, Montserrat with its Oriole and especially Barbuda with was hit especially hard and has a endemic warbler.

Mark B Bartosik · Sep 17, 2017

locustella said:
This is very boring, but perhaps that can have something to do with global warming ? There were also very heavy winds in some countries. High frequency of such unusual events is suspicious.

So what is your (and others as well) opinion of these presentations? Just curious..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdTlXuTwvEQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dk60CUkf3Kw

2017 Atlantic hurricane season (1 Viewer)

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