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What's your guess? (1 Viewer)

dennis

Have binoculars. Will travel.
As you know, the Great Global Bird Count is underway. How many total species will be found by our forum members? Who is the best guesser? Maybe the forum will kick in a cap to the closest?

I'll start it out with a modest 950 total. Have a go!! Count compilers need not apply!

dennis
 
I'm not a compiler (unless compiling the rules counts me out), so I'll try, too:

Lessee, there are more than 8000 species world-wide. We have every continent except Antarctica represented, along with a very wide variety of habitats, from the Himalayan foothills in Nepal, to the saltpans of Western Australia, the North Sea, northern Canada and Alaska, the Arabian peninsula, northern and central Europe, South America, Mexico and El Salvador, the east and west coasts of the US and many spots between, and remarkable coverage of the UK (and that's just what I can remember right now). There's going to be coverage of some places with an amazing diversity of species, and most people are going to be looking hard.
Plus, early May is migration season in the Northern Hemisphere.

So, at a guess, I'll go with 1249.

And, while not intending to give our compilers any suggestions -- they have a huge job already (!!) with just compiling a grand total, would it be interesting to know which species were seen where? For example, Northern Cardinal will be seen by folks throughout the eastern and central US, but how far west? Mallard is probably the most globally common duck species: how many different locations will pick it up?

Assuming we repeat this count another time, it would be interesting to perhaps have someone take a look at our lists to come up with this kind of information.
 
Surely there are some other guesses out there! So far they range from 650 to 1425. I'm also curious as to how many people turn in reports.

dennis
 
Having read the perfectly logical description give by Beverly regarding the background of countries, max number of species in the world etc, I have written an algorithm and fed it into my computer along with all the other variables. The answer, I doubled and added a tenth just in case and it came out at 2.5? Thinking that this is a little on the low side I have decided to guess and go for.....hmmmmm.......thinks harder........hmmmmmm........1151.

Seriously, if we get 10 per cent of the worlds population of species we will have done well.

Colin

PS - yes, I agree with Dennis, it would be interesting to know how many reports were submitted.
 
Will we get 50% of Europe's Species?

Here are the approximate percentage distributions of the worlds bird species by continent (obviously there is some overlap!)

South America 33.0%
Asia 29.9%
Africa 23.7%
Central & North America 20.6%
Australasia 17.5%
Europe 10.3%
Antarctica 0.7%


If we get 50% of the European species, and 50% of the C&N American species - that might be 1500. But of course, if we only get 10% then that's only 300!

Anybody want to rethink their guess?
 
Well, this is as nuts as it gets! We got six continents covered, but by now many counters? I think I may be the only guy counting Japan. I know I had an average count for here at this season, 50+ species. Well, we have how many members now? 1500? And if, say 50% of us were sober and aware of the GGBC and willing to go outside, that would be 750 counters. And at least half of us live in the UK, so they're all counting the same species, if they can agree on what they saw... I don't have an algorithm, but I do have an abacus, giving me... wait for it...1999 species. You read it here.
 
I'll go for simple arithmetic. Suppose we have twenty five different people/teams registered and they find an average of 50 birds per team - wait, not enough fingers - 1250. Then subtract say - 65 overlaps - 1185. That'll do for my guess!
 
For the record, we had about 75 registrations (although it wasn't necessary to register to take part), and I reckon some people will have no overlaps (although, ALL of mine were!!!)
 
This'll be popular.
What is the point of this exercise? It certainly has no scientific or conservation value. It hasn't (and this is only a summation) converted significant numbers of people into being birdwatchers and therefore, it has little educational value. I guess that everyone who takes part will have been out birding anyway, so it can't possibly have increased their enjoyment of our hobby. Turn up at any 'decent' twitch and you can get 5 or 6 times the number of birders there than have registered and yet it is called The Great Global Bird Count, hahaha that's a joke. Sorry guys and gals, but it's a very silly, 'stunt'. Hope you have a nice time. Bah, humbug!
I wonder who will be first to have a go at me? 5, 4, 3, 2, 1..............
 
BOOM!!!!

What "exercise"? There was no exercise - it was a bit... I mean A LOT of fun.

If there had been a point to it, then it would have been exclusive (as in non-inclusive). If it had been an ornthological / scientific study, then many of us would not have had sufficient skills to take part!

It was an egalitarian experience - does it need to have a point?

What's the "point" of anything CJW???

What's the point of football, what's the point of Music?

Indeed, what's the "point" of birding?????

(Dismounts high horse, and puts hackles back down...)
 
Well CJW I had a lot of fun and I think I learnt a thing or two as well because I birded one morning with a really great guy who taught me a couple of quick ways of identifying certain birds in flight. Everything starts somewhere, and in a few years time this may well be the GREAT Global Bird Count! As more data is collected in years to come it may well come to have some scientific significance. I think it has, in fact, had the effect of raising enthusiasm - I bird, but I made a special effort for this and was really excited by the whole concept. I wouldn't 'have a go at you' as you put it - each of us has our own way of enjoying things, yours is different - have fun!
 
CJW,

GGBC wasn't promoted as being of scientific or educational value - it was, as birdman says, meant to be a lot of fun, which it obviously was if you read all the comments on the post-GGBC thread.

I wouldn't normally have been out birding that day, as we're decorating what seems like the whole house, but as I'd put my name down I decided to have a break and get some fresh air. As the day also had a purpose, i.e. to see as many birds as possible, I did go round with an increased sense of anticipation and enjoyment. I think, as a result, I maybe saw more birds myself rather than relying on others to spot them and point them out for me.

It was also an educational experience for some, as per Sal's comments. Maybe more people also learned a thing or two during the weekend.

As for calling any twitch 'decent' - this is a contradiction in terms. Any twitch that has 5 or 6 times the number of people on the GGBC is positively 'indecent' as regards disruption to the birds and the environment.

You carry on enjoying your twitching and let others enjoy what they enjoy. Your comments added very little of value to the thread, being merely full of opinionated remarks and very little, if any, fact. Maybe you were trying to stir up an argument on purpose!!
 
Ever since the days of cavemen, when a particularly unadventurous male took one look at a wheel and said: "It'll never work!" people have been putting down good ideas.

There was the manager who turned down The Beatles. There was the entrepreneur who decided that Bill Gates was a teenage nerd and wouldn't lend him any money to launch Microsoft. There are many more examples.

And so it is with the GGBC. Poor CJW seems to need a reason to do everything. This has been brilliant fun, it will produce a fantastic list of birds from round the world, and it has galvanised scores of people to bird like crazy.

And we think that GGBC is unique. It will certainly raise the profile of Bird Forum, and it has brought everyone together for a common purpose. As far as I can see, there simply isn’t a downside to this.
 
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