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Old Monday 3rd April 2017, 08:13   #151
elkcub
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Sorry, that was an inside joke. :)

I'd be more than delighted to see that area fleshed out.

Ed
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Old Monday 3rd April 2017, 16:36   #152
Chosun Juan
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Characters in a sitcom, or so Mr. Google informs me. Hmmm. . .. Nicely dodged, but the question still stands. Now, c'mon, fess up, do you have any scientific background at all, however humble? [I know Ed does as he's often said so in this and other threads but he's been so stingy with the details that I have no idea where exactly his expertise lies. Maybe he'll tell us now, maybe he won't. Whatever. . .. Same with you of course.].
Hardly a dodge - you were the one that led in with the haha! after all ......
A bit of digging would have seen you turn up Mr Wolowitz's M.Eng., and Ms Fowler's Doctorate in Neuroscience, and while I have worked with some 'r-e-a-l' 'space cadets' I have never been to space. .... my M.Eng majors were in Renewable Energy, Sustainable Building Design, and Heat Transfer. I also have an MBA and DBA majoring in Strategic Analysis, Managerial, Change and Organisational Psychology, Leadership, and Motivation, as well as a following Director's Diploma.

I have worked formerly as an Air-Conditioning and Ventilation Design Engineer, Managed a Sustainability and Building Design firm, but largely for a decade as a Director of a Global Leading Multi-National Company while doing all the Business Administration studies. Way too young, but semi-retired anyhow, my main interests are landscape whispering and metaphysics. Occasionally I will still take on projects in any of these or former areas in either the Commercial or NGO realms.


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Old Monday 3rd April 2017, 16:51   #153
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Hardly a dodge - you were the one that led in with the haha! after all ......
A bit of digging would have seen you turn up Mr Wolowitz's M.Eng., and Ms Fowler's Doctorate in Neuroscience, and while I have worked with some 'r-e-a-l' 'space cadets' I have never been to space. .... my M.Eng majors were in Renewable Energy, Sustainable Building Design, and Heat Transfer. I also have an MBA and DBA majoring in Strategic Analysis, Managerial, Change and Organisational Psychology, Leadership, and Motivation, as well as a following Director's Diploma.

I have worked formerly as an Air-Conditioning and Ventilation Design Engineer, Managed a Sustainability and Building Design firm, but largely for a decade as a Director of a Global Leading Multi-National Company while doing all the Business Administration studies. Way too young, but semi-retired anyhow, my main interests are landscape whispering and metaphysics. Occasionally I will still take on projects in any of these or former areas in either the Commercial or NGO realms.
Yes, I assumed your background was in business or some such practical sphere where pie charts abound.

Metaphysics? Really? I wonder if we understand the same thing by that word?
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Old Monday 3rd April 2017, 16:58   #154
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Originally Posted by elkcub View Post
Here is post #61.


Nope. Not a word (or thought) was said about "conspiracy," "sleazy politicians," or "pseudo-scientists*" and it's very consistent with what I said in 2015, which described the academic-political mechanism that gives rise to an insular and polarized situation. For some reason you're trying to fit me into a niche like "liberal" or "conservative," and then apply attributes like "conspiracist" or "denier" to demonize everyone in the niche.

Hopefully, the Liberal party of the future will be liberal- or open-minded as well, and Govt. will go out of its way to fund both sides of any important scientific debate that has strong policy consequences. (The Conservative party should be similarly open-minded.) That is not easy to do because every agency has a political appointee sitting at the top (as we are learning), and NASA/NOAA are executive agencies, i.e., they report to the President. So it is important to have bi-partisan legislation that puts such a policy into effect for all Govt. science organizations, because science should be apolitical.

However it my sound to you Fugl, I do know what I'm trying to say, and I accept responsibility for not expressing it clearly. Believe what you wish, but there is no conspiracy lurking behind anything I've said. Let's hear something more constructive from you than simply a check-list of accusations.

Ed
* In 2015 I said:
Ed,

No such apology is necessary at all. Your salient and insightful points are well, and clearly, made. Crystal clear.

In lay terms it may be (simplistically) understood as "Group think", and probably best not to even get me started on the well established implicit gender bias either https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/0...nferences.html


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Old Monday 3rd April 2017, 19:43   #155
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Oh courtesy and the internet, don't get me started!
Hope you'll find the discussion engaging and I'm keen to hear any points or criticisms you want to raise.
How did you possum-exorcism go? I'm visiting OZ for the first time in June and can't wait for all the new birds!

J
Joost, still! dealing with possums and repairs among other things, so the replies may come slowly ....

Ed nicely articulated my concerns about the assumptions previously, the main ones triggered were in relation to landscape interactions, etc.

Thanks for your offer of further information. I am independent, genuinely interested, and open one way or the other. Apolitical, I can't be pigeonholed as a this or that, which may not suit some!

It may help to gain an understanding of where I'm coming from.

I have previously asked various people with expertise on this forum for a simple pie or line chart of ALL the factors involved and quanta (even rough ranges), but was told it was too complex! and the science hadn't been done yet. I realize that this may be no small task given the unknown (apart from reconstructions) pre-history temperature, solar, etc records, some unknown variable starting conditions and rates, and even some chaotic (in the mathematical sense) interactions which may defy reliable modeling.

I am interested in the big picture rather than the minute of numerical analysis, and I'm of the view that correlation doesn't necessarily indicate causation. My biggest question would be what are ALL the factors that caused the climate to change in the past, and what are those ramifications for the future.

My interest in the whole (A)GW thing is mostly passing because of this and ranges from an ecological point of view (temperature, rainfall, stability, frequency, migration, adaptability), to a change management/sociology/politics point of view.

As far as I understand it the entire Earth's existence and suitability for habitation is a mere happenstance. The collision of the Moon with a formative Earth, resultant tilting (and wobbling, yawing), and orbit of the moon, would provide much of the foundations of our weather. If I understand correctly, the moon is on and ever slightly increasing orbital distance from the Earth which will one distant day cause issues. All of these variables have an effect of whatever direction and magnitude.

Of course I have similar questions of the impacts of Earth's orbit around the sun, and solar activity, and even questions of the effects of the Earth's internal radioactive decay, and continental plate drift, volcanic activity, natural CO2e emissions, etc.

I have witnessed catastrophic damage to this landscape since White Settlement a mere 200-odd years ago. Complete destruction of wetlands, hydrological, soil formation, and fertility cycles, massive drying of the land and deforestation/devegetation, and some areas destroyed through rampant salinity. Just about every creek, every river incised and eroded. Every road replete with insidious culverts - blasting precious soil away to eventually end up in the ocean (I wonder what the effect of this is on sea levels?!).

All of this happened prior to significant fossil fuel use, and I think is mirrored globally. Agriculture historically leading to desertification. The magnitude of these carbon movements is over 10 fold the magnitude of fossil fuel emissions. Some of our soils are down around ~1% carbon, when they should be 4%, and could possibly be double that.

There's the urban heat island effect to consider, and a few other things. (Is there any info on the effects of oilfields being set alight during war etc?). I should say that I'm also rather wary of government's demonstrated (particularly economically illiterate left leaning ones as we experienced) ability to effectively manage any meaningful change or even choose the correct problem to solve.

My understanding of this country's climate is that it is significantly influenced by the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), and some longer term cyclicals, one of which is on a ~600 year cycle and ended certain South American cultures last time it hit (floods). Any factual information on those more obscure longer cycles would be welcome.

So that's the guts of my thinking, and I would be interested in any comment or research progress in these areas, and anything else I have left out.

I would also be very interested in any comment or insight you have on our recent record summer temperatures AND the significant gap to previous records (for December) = 148 years (pre any A in AGW - so just what caused it?) as I detailed in post#76 http://www.birdforum.net/showpost.ph...2&postcount=76

Below are some links to some latest landscape/hydrology/vegetation research you may find interesting:
https://eos.org/opinions/global-sign...=EosBuzz032417

http://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?t=342128


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Old Monday 3rd April 2017, 20:07   #156
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....Metaphysics? Really? I wonder if we understand the same thing by that word?
Perhaps? Perhaps not

More spiritual metaphysics and quantum mechanics.

It's been a long time since I've had anything resembling an existential conundrum, and very early on I scooted past the more dour academic epistemological elements of philosophy. I had a healthy curiosity of the scientific method, knowledge/wisdom traditions and the common spiritual thread among the world's religions. Increasing visions led me into the more esoteric and mystical realms where I went straight to the back of the book for the answer.


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Old Monday 3rd April 2017, 20:16   #157
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Quantum mechanics? I'm absolutely certain we don't understand the same thing by those words!
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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 00:48   #158
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Which begs the question: What do you understand?

The existential conundrum is expressed here:
Quote:
"The majority of people have no understanding of the things with which they daily meet, nor, when instructed, do they have any right knowledge of them, although to themselves they seem to have." - Heraclitus
The way around the conundrum is to become knowledgeable and think for yourself, i.e., to resist "belief" in what others say just because they said it.

Not sure if that's what you meant, Chosun, but that's my take.

Ed
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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 01:58   #159
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Which begs the question: What do you understand?
I'm not sure if that's directed to me or to Chosun but I'll answer it anyway. My understanding of "quantum mechanics" is the common one: the scientific study of how things work in the physical universe at the subatomic level. My guess is that Chosun is using the term very differently, in a vague new agey sense comparable to that in which she's just admitted she uses "metaphysics". Nothing wrong with this, of course (though not my cup of tea), and I'm sure she'll correct me if I've misrepresented her views.

But I'm certain of one thing and that's that your understanding of the phrase "begs the question" differs most profoundly from mine. . ..
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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 04:56   #160
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Which begs the question: What do you understand?
Quote:
"Begging the question" is a form of logical fallacy in which a statement or claim is assumed to be true without evidence other than the statement or claim itself.
First you said that you are absolutely certain you don't understand the same thing as Chosun with regard to quantum mechanics, — which is a claim assumed to be true without evidence.

Then you said that "[my] understanding of the phrase "begs the question" differs most profoundly from [yours]," — which is another claim assumed to be true without evidence.

Who knows what your "understanding" is unless you answer the question: What do you understand?

Ed
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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 06:07   #161
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First you said that you are absolutely certain you don't understand the same thing as Chosun with regard to quantum mechanics, — which is a claim assumed to be true without evidence.

Then you said that "[my] understanding of the phrase "begs the question" differs most profoundly from [yours]," — which is another claim assumed to be true without evidence.

Who knows what your "understanding" is unless you answer the question: What do you understand?

These endless word games are boring, Fugl. Based on the evidence my understanding is that they are intended to aggravate.
Yes, very very boring and on your part increasingly incoherent. All that goofy logic-chopping, sheesh! C'mon, so you misused "begging the question"; nothing to be ashamed of, many people do so nowadays in everyday speech, so why not just forget it and move on? You really need to lighten up, you know,and stop trying to "win" every trifling little exchange. Well, whatever, I've definitely had it with this one, so farewell. The last word is yours if you care to take it.
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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 08:35   #162
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Wow guys a lot to respond to - let me mull this over and get back to you!
Shame about the spats by the way, can we continue without the little digs and barbs please?

J
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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 09:12   #163
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Yes, very very boring and on your part increasingly incoherent. All that goofy logic-chopping, sheesh! C'mon, so you misused "begging the question"; nothing to be ashamed of, many people do so nowadays in everyday speech, so why not just forget it and move on? You really need to lighten up, you know,and stop trying to "win" every trifling little exchange. Well, whatever, I've definitely had it with this one, so farewell. The last word is yours if you care to take it.
I try to avoid being wrong, but do appreciate being corrected. In this case I may well have slipped into "everyday speech" as you put it, and will take note, but if it is everyday speech you should also have known what I was saying. Pedantry aside, in a discussion it's the thoughts that matter.

Yeah, delete 'begging the question' and insert 'raises the question.' I'm cool with that.

Anyway, I had deleted the last sentence of my post, but once again not quickly enough.

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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 09:29   #164
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Wow guys a lot to respond to - let me mull this over and get back to you!
Shame about the spats by the way, can we continue without the little digs and barbs please?

J
Certainly.

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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 15:36   #165
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I try to avoid being wrong, but do appreciate being corrected. In this case I may well have slipped into "everyday speech" as you put it, and will take note, but if it is everyday speech you should also have known what I was saying. Pedantry aside, in a discussion it's the thoughts that matter.

Yeah, delete 'begging the question' and insert 'raises the question.' I'm cool with that.

Anyway, I had deleted the last sentence of my post, but once again not quickly enough.
Fair enough, faults on both sides. Peace.
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Old Tuesday 4th April 2017, 23:03   #166
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Brave new world department--
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/04/b...ore-ipad-share
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Old Monday 10th April 2017, 20:57   #167
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Dumbo strikes again. NASA funding for basic climate research cut--
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/10/c...ore-ipad-share
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Old Tuesday 11th April 2017, 01:54   #168
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That's President Dumbo to you...

Your precious Obozo is long gone.
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Old Tuesday 18th April 2017, 20:24   #169
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That's the question, indeed!

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/m...ore-ipad-share
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Old Wednesday 26th April 2017, 17:46   #170
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The weatherman steps up to the plate--

https://apple.news/A5bkiQBVFTqCsJEi-7GmSFA
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Old Friday 28th April 2017, 05:16   #171
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AGW-deniers targeting school teachers. The Heartland Institute is a far-right "think tank" best known for "denying" the link between smoking and cancer.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/27/o...ore-ipad-share
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Old Friday 19th May 2017, 20:14   #172
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AGW and the greening of Antarctica. In our accelerating race backwards through time, we've zoomed past the Pleistocene interglacials and are now hellbent for the Pliocene. . ..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-to-turn-green
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Old Sunday 21st May 2017, 03:52   #173
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Lightbulb

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I'm not sure if that's directed to me or to Chosun but I'll answer it anyway. My understanding of "quantum mechanics" is the common one: the scientific study of how things work in the physical universe at the subatomic level. My guess is that Chosun is using the term very differently, in a vague new agey sense comparable to that in which she's just admitted she uses "metaphysics". Nothing wrong with this, of course (though not my cup of tea), and I'm sure she'll correct me if I've misrepresented her views.

But I'm certain of one thing and that's that your understanding of the phrase "begs the question" differs most profoundly from mine. . ..
I assure you that I am referring to Metaphysics, and Quantum Mechanics in the strictly defined sense, and indeed that we are talking about the same topics, though perhaps our understanding is at different levels (by definition with these topics being broad, open ended, and with infinite possibilities)

There is nothing "vague", or "new agey" (not that in pure essence there is anything wrong with that) about it. We are on the cusp of discovering a nexus between spiritual metaphysics and quantum mechanics within the parameters of the scientific method. Even though that will be a subset of the true nature of reality, it will be enough to silence the naysayers and usher in a more enlightened evolutionary phase ....

Until such time seekers and questers of the grail will have to forge a path in the time honoured way of the wisdom traditions .... not for the faint hearted for sure - but possible.

Unless one is part of a Tibetan Buddhism lineage, then probably the initiate best start along the lines of the Eastern Mystic traditions of Taoism, Buddhist Metaphysics, Zen Buddhism, or try and track down a Sufi (if the Islamic Fundamentalists haven't despatched them all). Allow at least as long a timeframe ranging from the snap of the fingers to a lifetime (or several), depending on the propensity of the student. Plenty of traps for young players on the way, and unless overly fond of chaos I'd steer clear of 'Gurus', occult and the like. Similarly Kundalini Yoga and the Entheogenics may be too much of a disruptive hurry up, and/or addictive .... The lure of the Claridad is strong .....

All of this is just a start, the student will find themselves down the road less travelled, off on a gravel track, then forging a path up a mountain ... When they get to the top, then the journey really starts - look for an Eagle soaring way up beyond the limits of ordinary sight. If the student has learnt well from Shamanism, and is ready, they can become the Eagle .... pay attention to it's gaze skyward, for there, is an esoteric realm, beyond the confines of accredited education, beyond books, beyond peer review, beyond teachers, and where a Doctoral Degree is viewed no more impressively than a toddler shaking a rattle. Therein, is the answer, the grail, excalibur ..... though don't expect to be able to prove it



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Old Sunday 21st May 2017, 03:54   #174
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Thumbs up

Joost, and others - this may be of interest, but is merely the tip of the iceberg ....
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/techan...JmHB?li=AA4Zor


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Old Yesterday, 02:33   #175
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Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
I assure you that I am referring to Metaphysics, and Quantum Mechanics in the strictly defined sense, and indeed that we are talking about the same topics, though perhaps our understanding is at different levels (by definition with these topics being broad, open ended, and with infinite possibilities)

There is nothing "vague", or "new agey" (not that in pure essence there is anything wrong with that) about it. We are on the cusp of discovering a nexus between spiritual metaphysics and quantum mechanics within the parameters of the scientific method. Even though that will be a subset of the true nature of reality, it will be enough to silence the naysayers and usher in a more enlightened evolutionary phase ....

Until such time seekers and questers of the grail will have to forge a path in the time honoured way of the wisdom traditions .... not for the faint hearted for sure - but possible.

Unless one is part of a Tibetan Buddhism lineage, then probably the initiate best start along the lines of the Eastern Mystic traditions of Taoism, Buddhist Metaphysics, Zen Buddhism, or try and track down a Sufi (if the Islamic Fundamentalists haven't despatched them all). Allow at least as long a timeframe ranging from the snap of the fingers to a lifetime (or several), depending on the propensity of the student. Plenty of traps for young players on the way, and unless overly fond of chaos I'd steer clear of 'Gurus', occult and the like. Similarly Kundalini Yoga and the Entheogenics may be too much of a disruptive hurry up, and/or addictive .... The lure of the Claridad is strong .....

All of this is just a start, the student will find themselves down the road less travelled, off on a gravel track, then forging a path up a mountain ... When they get to the top, then the journey really starts - look for an Eagle soaring way up beyond the limits of ordinary sight. If the student has learnt well from Shamanism, and is ready, they can become the Eagle .... pay attention to it's gaze skyward, for there, is an esoteric realm, beyond the confines of accredited education, beyond books, beyond peer review, beyond teachers, and where a Doctoral Degree is viewed no more impressively than a toddler shaking a rattle. Therein, is the answer, the grail, excalibur ..... though don't expect to be able to prove it
Wow, the whole New Age shebang, from soup to nuts, impressive in its eclecticism if in nothing else. Have you actually studied any of the various esoteric traditions you mention, by the way, or is what you've written just gleanings from the internet or from some pop book on "metaphysics"?
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