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Evidence for the Survival of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker (1 Viewer)

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Plenty of examples of aberrant Pileateds

timeshadowed said:
Why have they not released THEIR freak pileated photos??
TimeShadowed

You should be asking Cornell. TWO team members have now admitted there were aberrant Pileated Woodpeckers in the study area. In this Arkansas Times article, it says the following:

Arkansas State University professor of wildlife ecology Jim Bednarz has seen several pileated woodpeckers with an abnormal amount of white wing feathers in the Cache River refuge. With Team Elvis, he pursued three birds that showed a flash of white in flight and white on their backs as they were perched. All were pileated.

Also, I remind you that in this Birder's World article it says the following:

A questioner asked Rosenberg (who admitted that he was hoping to time his talk so as not to have to take questions) if members of the search team had observed any Pileated Woodpeckers with aberrant plumage. Rosenberg said that there were reports of such birds, and that he had seen a photograph of a Pileated that was missing upper-wing coverts. The missing feathers exposed more white than usual on the bird’s wing.

Again CORNELL says they have a photo, and TWO team members say there were "freak" Pileated Woodpeckers IN THE STUDY AREA.

Another example of an aberrant Pileated Woodpecker is posted in Tom Nelson's Ivory-bill Skeptics Blog and is from Noel Snyder's book The Carolina Parakeet

Surely, mistakes in identification are sometimes made even by highly competent observers. Two examples from my own experience illustrate the risks clearly. One was a sighting of my own of an apparent Ivory-billed Woodpecker in central Florida in 1979. This was a bird that I flushed from a log in working through a hammock east of the Archbold Biological Station. The bird flew up to the vertical trunk of a pine only a few yards distant, and I could plainly see that it was a very large woodpecker with distinct large white secondary triangles on its folded wings, the most diagnostic field mark of the ivory-bill in distinguishing it from the somewhat similar Pileated Woodpecker.

Had the bird flown on immediately after I detected it, I would have been forever sure that I had seen a living Ivory-bill. But the bird remained perched on the pine trunk, giving me time to examine it more closely with binoculars. I soon determined that the white triangles on the bird's wings were in fact cream in color, not pure white, and in fact there were two black feathers intermixed with the cream-colored secondaries on the bird's left wing. Further, the bird lacked the huge white bill of an ivory-bill and instead had the much smaller black bill typical of a Pileated Woodpecker.


Since Pileated Woodpeckers have been mistaken for Ivory-bills hundreds of times in the past, and since the team was LOOKING for Ivory-bills, and since there were Pileated Woodpeckers IN THE AREA with more white than usual on their wings, and since the trailing white on the wings was the ONLY field mark most of the observers noted, doesn't it seem like a rather huge coincidence?

The video is EXTREMELY poor, and the top ivory-bill expert in the world, and several other top ornithologists, say the video shows a PILEATED woodpecker.

On this thread, it seems the most popular debating point is the credentials of the skeptics. All of the following people are skeptics. Again, I think few if any of the skeptics are saying the survival if the IB is impossible, just that it hasn't yet been proven.

1. David Sibley, bird book author
2. Kenn Kaufman, bird book author
3. Jerome Jackson, "world's foremost expert on the ivory-billed woodpecker"
4. Richard Prum, ornithologist, Yale University
5. Mark Robbins, ornithologist, University of Kansas
6. Gary Graves, the Smithsonian Institution's curator of birds
7. Michael Patten, ornithologist, University of Oklahoma

I challenge the believers to make a similar list of credentialed experts who have ACCEPTED Cornell's "proof."
 
surey not a difficult task...

you could start at BirdLife International, Go through the WCMC, take in the IUCN etc,

and the top two wouldn't be writers of field guides - I've got mates that have done that! The evidence provided by the team seems excellent to me.

Tim
 
Tim Allwood said:
surey not a difficult task...

...and the top two wouldn't be writers of field guides - I've got mates that have done that!

Tim

If you are saying that Sibley and Kaufman aren't among the most recognized and respected experts in North American birding, you're not going to find many people to agree with you.

And if you can find an Ivory-bill expert with better credentials than Jerome Jackson, I'm waiting breathlessly to see who it is.

And if you can put together a more impressive list of experts who have publicly accepted Cornell's "proof," lets see it.
 
buck3m said:
And if you can put together a more impressive list of experts who have publicly accepted Cornell's "proof," lets see it.

yes i can

several of those people wouldn't want me putting their names in a thread/forum like this though.

i find myself arguing with anti global warmers, people who know better than all the experts in every field etc. This place is getting seriously weird.

I'd better get out in the field for a few days...

Tim
 
Buck3m,

So, of the hundreds of ornithologists in the USA you can find only 9 that are skeptics? If I am not mistaken both Prum and Robbins have stated that based on the audio evidence they now believe that there are IBWOs in Arkansas.

Since you invoke science so much, I ask where are the papers challenging the Science article? Why don't you write one? Can your arguments convince referees, say of Science or Nature, to recommend publication of your paper?

The arguments of the Cornell people passed muster with the referees of the journal Science. Your ornithological skeptics withdrew their paper. What does that tell you about the solidity of their arguments?

Dalcio
 
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Tim Allwood said:
yes i can

several of those people wouldn't want me putting their names in a thread/forum like this though.

I'm going to specify that secret testimony of secret experts doesn't count.

Let's see your list of experts that WILL allow you to use their name. I'll predict in advance that you won't submit a list at all, and if you do it will be short and unimpressive.


dacol said:
So, of the hundreds of ornithologists in the USA you can find only 9 that are skeptics?

There are even less that have publicly accepted Cornell's report. There are 7 major names on that skeptics list first made by Tom Nelson. All have publicly expressed skepticism of the current evidence. I'm asking for a list of recognized experts of a similar caliber who have stated, publicly, that they accept the current evidence.


dacol said:
If I am not mistaken both Prum and Robbins have stated that based on the audio evidence they now believe that there are IBWOs in Arkansas.
You ARE mistaken. Prum and Robbins initially accepted the audio evidence but have since changed their minds. As quoted earlier in Nature:
On 1 August, as the journal PLoS Biology was close to publishing their critique of the Science article, Prum and Robbins withdrew the manuscript while Jackson was travelling...Even so, the three sceptics say that they withdrew their PLoS manuscript too hastily.

By the way, ethical scientists WILL change their minds if new evidence tips the balance one way or another.


dacol said:
I ask where are the papers challenging the Science article?

Based on the above quote, it seems likely they'll be resubmitting their paper. One way or another, I fully expect a challenge to the Cornell paper to be published in the coming months.

I'm even more confident that we'll be seeing a challenge published before we see a good Ivory-bill photo.
 
buck3m said:
On this thread, it seems the most popular debating point is the credentials of the skeptics.

Both buck3m and Tom Nelson are writing information in this thread and on the blog site in such a way as to make it appear that THEY are the ones who have first-hand knowledge of the "evidence" that is presented here. It is buck3m and Tom Nelson who are the skeptics in this thread, NOT the people that are listed in the post above.

It is NOT the credentials of the men listed in that above post that I question. The credentials that I question are those of buck3m and Tom Nelson.

TimeShadowed
 
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buck3m said:
There are even less that have publicly accepted Cornell's report.

There are no reasons for professional ornithologists that accept the conclusions of the Cornell team to appear in public.

The conservation measures taken so far to preserve IBWO habitat in Arkansas have not been derailed by the sideline sniping of the skeptics. The USFWS is moving full steam ahead with their recovery plans. The Big Woods partnership has been very successsful in raising funds for consertation too.

The presentations by the Cornell team were warmly and positively received at the AOU meeting in Santa Barbara.

The conclusions of the Science paper continue unchallenged in the published scientific literature.

[/QUOTE]By the way, ethical scientists WILL change their minds if new evidence tips the balance one way or another.[/QUOTE]


That is besides the point, I am not questioning their ethics. Their flip-flopping does indicate to me that they don't have much confidence in their own arguments and reasoning.

[/QUOTE]Based on the above quote, it seems likely they'll be resubmitting their paper. [/QUOTE]

Let us hope that this time they choose a jourrnal with a established scientific reputation, or better yet, conform to established scientific procedure and try to publish their refutation in the same journal where the original article appeared.

Of course, this will only be possible if their arguments have more objective and rational content than the ones presented by you and your brother. Those arguments of yours consist only of subjective impressions about the video, inuendos questioning the credibility and ability of the observers that saw the IBWO in Arkansas, and pathetic appeals to authority. Not enough to pass through a minimally competent referee.

Dalcio
 
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ha ha ha

Buck, you reckon i have nothing better to do than ring up people and ask them if i can put their names on here as 'believing' the Cornell researchers...?

give BirdLife International HQ in Cambridge, UK a ring tomorrow morning - there's quite a few experts there for a good start... don't know whether they'll indulge you though.

anyway, i would take it that if any 'expert' hasn't registered their scepticism that is a tacit acceptance of the claims...

and i can't wait to read that 'rebuttal' paper - if we ever see one in anything like Science or Nature

Tim
 
timeshadowed said:
It is NOT the credentials of the men listed in that above post that I question. The credentials that I question are those of buck3m and Tom Nelson.

TimeShadowed

TimeShadowed, your "debating" consists almost entirely of personal attacks. You've argued over and over that the skeptics are wrong because the skeptics have no credentials. I've shown you that some of the top birding experts in the world have publicly proclaimed themselves to be unconvinced. Your answer? Personal attacks.

An ad hominem fallacy consists of asserting that someone's argument is wrong and/or they are wrong to argue at all purely because of something discreditable/not-authoritative about the person or those persons cited by them rather than addressing the soundness of the argument itself.


dacol said:
Those arguments of yours consist only of subjective impressions about the video, inuendos questioning the credibility and ability of the observers that saw the IBWO in Arkansas, and pathetic appeals to authority. Not enough to pass through a minimally competent referee.

Dalcio

The trouble with the Cornell evidence is that it is so weak it is nearly all "subjective." We ALL know what an Ivory-bill looks like. In the best evidence, the video, some see an Ivory-bill, some see a Pileated, and some can't tell WHAT they're looking at. And that's the best evidence.

Eyewitnesses, especially those with preconceived notions, are notoriously undependable. This is doubly true in this case when there were several abnormally plumaged Pileateds in the search area and even more so with those brief glimpses.

A paper will be submitted, it will be accepted, and it will contain most of the arguments we have been making.
 
buck3m said:
A paper will be submitted, it will be accepted, and it will contain most of the arguments we have been making.

i hope your confidence is not misplaced

it's not easy to get a paper in Nature or Science

who's writing it anyway?

Tim
 
buck3m said:
TimeShadowed, your "debating" consists almost entirely of personal attacks.

I disagree. My comments in this thread have been based entirely on the information you and Tom Nelson have written in this thread. I have also disagreed with the 'style and manner' in which this information has been presented by you and Tom Nelson. That is NOT a 'personal attack'.

Name calling is considered a 'personal attack'. I have not ever done that on this forum.

Both you and Tom tend to 'pick and choose' by taking information out of its original context and only presenting such information that will support YOUR point of view, while ignoring information by the SAME author that will disagree with your viewpoint.

So, yes, I have been critical of your 'style and manner' in which this information has been presented by you and Tom Nelson, but THAT is not a 'personal attack'.

I have also pointed out that both of you have a double standard where 'proof' is concerned. You apply a lesser standard to the 'evidence' that supports your skeptic point of view (aberrant Pileated Woodpeckers) while at the same time demanding 'extraordinary proof' for 'evidence' that DOES NOT support your viewpoint. But THAT is NOT a 'personal attack' either.

To prove my point, why are you not calling for 'extraordinary proof' that these aberrant marked Pileated Woodpeckers exist? Why do you just accept that they exist because some claim that they do?

TimeShadowed
 
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timeshadowed said:
To prove my point, why are you not calling for 'extraordinary proof' that these aberrant marked Pileated Woodpeckers exist? Why do you just accept that they exist because some claim that they do?

TimeShadowed

Firstly, in a population of hundreds of thousands of Pileated Woodpeckers the odds say there will be some with aberrant plumage.

Secondly, TWO team members say that there were aberrantly plumaged Pileated Woodpeckers in the area of the study. If they are telling the truth, I've proved my point. If they are lying, the study is invalid. I don't think they're lying, do you?

And using the audio as an example, I don't need extraordinary proof that the calls were made by a blue jay, but the believers DO need extraordinary proof that they WERE made by Ivory-bills. In that sense, it's a double standard, but thats the way it should be.
 
curunir said:
So what is the simplest answer?
The simplest answer is that it does exist since it is nearly impossibly difficult to prove a negative.

(except in the case of Iraq's WMD - everyone the world over "proved" that negative when they weren't found within 2 hours of the invasion....)
 
Terry O'Nolley said:
The simplest answer is that it does exist since it is nearly impossibly difficult to prove a negative.

(except in the case of Iraq's WMD - everyone the world over "proved" that negative when they weren't found within 2 hours of the invasion....)

or er.... at any time since...

more chance of finding an IBW - as was proven... :'D

Tim
 
It is okay to accept if two qualified team members state that there are aberrant pileateds in the area.

It is NOT okay to accept 7 to 15 sightings of an IBWO in the same area by qualified members of same team.

Interesting.
 
gws said:
It is okay to accept if two qualified team members state that there are aberrant pileateds in the area.

It is NOT okay to accept 7 to 15 sightings of an IBWO in the same area by qualified members of same team.

Interesting.

Even more interesting is that they got at least one photo of the aberrant Pileated but none of their Ivory-bill sightings.

Also interesting is that the Ivory-bills all escaped after a brief glimpse, while, according to Jim Bednarz he has seen several pileated woodpeckers with an abnormal amount of white wing feathers in the Cache River refuge. With Team Elvis, he pursued three birds that showed a flash of white in flight and white on their backs as they were perched. All were pileated.

Some skeptics, including me, would point out that it looks like suspected Ivory-bills were Ivory-bills if they were only glimpsed briefly, but became Pileated Woodpeckers when observed closely or photographed.
 
Well, it is even more interesting that some of the sightings have apparently revealed no red on the head at all!

Man, these are some hellaciously freak pileateds. Oversized, too! :)
 
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buck3m said:
"Firstly, in a population of hundreds of thousands of Pileated Woodpeckers the odds say there will be some with aberrant plumage."



There have been numerous claimed sightings of IBWO's in the years between 1944 and now, so why just assume that the IBWO no longer exists and that it is extinct. It has NEVER been officially declared or listed AS EXTINCT.

Your continued demand for "extraordinary proof" that the bird still exits while your assumption that 'Elvis' was only "a leucistic Pileated, another abnormally plumaged Pileated, or normal Pileated woodpeckers honestly mis-IDed"
( http://www.birdforum.net/showpost.php?p=400562&postcount=102 ) is still using a double standard of proof. You can't prove or disprove that this is what the search team was or was not seeing. Yet you still demand "extraordinary proof" that they saw what they claimed to have seen, an IBWO.




buck3m said:
"Secondly, TWO team members say that there were aberrantly plumaged Pileated Woodpeckers in the area of the study. If they are telling the truth, I've proved my point. If they are lying, the study is invalid. I don't think they're lying, do you?"


No, you have NOT proved your point. Just because "TWO team members say that there were aberrantly plumaged Pileated Woodpeckers in the area of the study" does not mean that this is what 'Elvis' was. What it means is that you are ASSUMING that this is what 'Elvis' was!

Now here is the 'double standard' at work again.

THREE team members, Sparling, Gallagher & Harrison,(Science article, Apr. 28, 2005) claim to have seen an IBWO at the SAME time. Yet you refuse to accept their claim without "extraordinary proof".

Why do you accept the claim of "aberrantly plumaged Pileated Woodpeckers in the area of the study", yet reject the claim of Sparling, Gallagher & Harrison that they saw an IBWO??



buck3m said:
"And using the audio as an example, I don't need extraordinary proof that the calls were made by a blue jay, but the believers DO need extraordinary proof that they WERE made by Ivory-bills. In that sense, it's a double standard, but thats the way it should be."


Wrong!

Why should we accept YOUR assumptions over the claims of trained audio techs who have analyzed those tapes??

Did YOU have access to the ORIGINAL recordings?
Have you personally analyzed the original recordings?

What qualifies you to make the scientific claim that those calls were made by a blue jay and not an IBWO?

TimeShadowed
 
gws said:
Well, it is even more interesting that some of the sightings have apparently revealed no red on the head at all!

Or ivory-colored bills. Or the white dorsal stripes. Or the white neck stripe ending before the bill. Or the longitudinal black stripe on the white wing underside.

Look, in the study, NOBODY got ONE really good look. Not ONE look good enough so they could have made an accurate description of an ivory-bill if they didn't already know what one was supposed to look like.

There is another double standard in this debate, and that is that the believers CAN prove their case with good photos and videos. On the other hand, there is no evidence that skeptics can produce, nor are there any arguments logical enough, to convince the truly faithful believers that the case hasn't been proven yet either way.

And that IS a fact. |=)|

There is another really important point here that I think many in the "pro" camp don't understand. The skeptics are NOT trying to prove the Ivory-bill is extinct. Only time will prove that, and the decision will forever be subjective until when and if solid proof comes forward.

I for one don't think the search should end or reports be ignored. I'd like to see wilderness areas protected and more old growth forest.

I would be delighted to see video of a pair of adult ivory-bills and young. But I'm afraid I never will.
 
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