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More data analysis: Shetland rarities (1 Viewer)

J

johnraven

Well-known member
My boredom reaches new depths, leading me to analyse Shetland rarity timing as well as the Scillies. Might be of interest to someone.

Same routine as before, this time Asian vagrants on Shetland. The chart shows bird days, so a bird that turns up on 28th Sep and leaves 30th Sep is recorded for each of the days 28-30th - the purpose of this is to see when's best to be there. I've looked at Pipits (excluding Olive Backed Pipit - too many records), Thrushes, Warblers and Buntings.

Most of the records are for Fair Isle (56%). Foula (7%), Out Skerries (6%), Mainland etc (30%). Average bird stays 3.1 days (under half the time for the Scillies).

The peak is not as distinct as with American Vagrants on Scillies. 13th Sept to 6th Oct seems to be the peak period, although plenty still in early Sept and late Oct.
 
Seems to be an earlier peak for Buntings than for Pipits. Can't quite tell for the others, but they seem rather better spread out. Quite fancy a Shetland holiday next year, and on the basis of this second half of September looks about right.

James
 
Once I am rich and idle, the conclusion of all this is clear - spend the second half of September and the first week of October on Shetland and then spend the rest of October on the Scillies.
 
In terms of trends over time, the results are exactly as I expected.
The number of rare bird finds has increased over time but this growth is entirely due to finds off Fair Isle.

Number of rare bird finds

Fair Isle
1980s: 73
1990s: 77
2000s: 70 (40 adjusted up for number of years)

Other Shetland
1980s: 19
1990s: 67
2000s: 107 (64 adjusted up for number of years)
 
Well Shetland and Fair Isle is proving yet again they are the premier sites in the UK for rare birds,So far this autumn they have had,BUFF BELLIED PIPIT,PALLID HARRIER,SIBERIAN THRUSH,SWAINSON'S THRUSH,PALLAS'S GROPPER,Pechora Pipit,Citrine Wagtails,Lanceolated Warblers,Thrush Nightingale,Sardinian Warbler,Arctic Warbler,Spotted Sandpipers,Bairds Sandpiper.
 
rokermartin said:
Well Shetland and Fair Isle is proving yet again they are the premier sites in the UK for rare birds,So far this autumn they have had,BUFF BELLIED PIPIT,PALLID HARRIER,SIBERIAN THRUSH,SWAINSON'S THRUSH,PALLAS'S GROPPER,Pechora Pipit,Citrine Wagtails,Lanceolated Warblers,Thrush Nightingale,Sardinian Warbler,Arctic Warbler,Spotted Sandpipers,Bairds Sandpiper.
Click to expand...

You d know its not like the football league, you dont get relegated from being a migrant hotspot on rarity difference?
 
Another rarity for Shetland WHITE'S THRUSH found dead on Fair Isle ,and yesterday another Blyth's Reed Warbler on mainland Shetland,also Buff breasted and White rumped Sand on Fair Isle today.
 
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What happens if you put in a cut-off to exclude the northern specialities and concentrate on higher status rarities? The Fair Isle warden was suggesting a year or two ago that the peak period for megas had shifted from end Sep into Oct, does the data support this?

John
 
Got to had another PALLAS'S GROPPER to the list ,one on Outer Skerries yesterday.Looking back at the last few autumns most of the mega rarities have turned up in October on Shetland and Fair Isle ,such as Chestnut eared Bunting ,Sib Rubythroats, Brown Shrikes and Rufous tailed Robin.
 
Farnboro John said:
What happens if you put in a cut-off to exclude the northern specialities and concentrate on higher status rarities? The Fair Isle warden was suggesting a year or two ago that the peak period for megas had shifted from end Sep into Oct, does the data support this?

John
Click to expand...


Sorry John, I finished my job last friday and have stopped doing data analysis. Been nonstop twitching + birding instead, my job-ending timing seems to have been rather good! I can send you my data if you're bored like I was...

John
 
Another mega for Shetland today on Foula a male SIBERIAN RUBYTHROAT,also on Foula 3 Blyth's Reed Warbler, 4 Oliver backed Pipit ,and yesterday another Pechora Pipit.
 
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Hi,

I suggest studying weather patterns in previous days (e.g. wind speed and direction in big cities - this is easy to get and essentially same as nearby land).

I made several unsuccesful trips to vagrant localities "in peak days". It turned to be succesful only when I stopped going in "peak days" and started after good strong winds.
 
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