[Highway Man]

Due to the dark nights and general boredom I took it upon myself to work out which areas fared the best during October. The not so exciting results can be viewed here

Mark

[garry1366]

If south mainland is heaving next yr with scilly types Mark you've only yourself to blame for telling them all! At least I know they won't be on Foula.

G

[Andrew Clarke]

Hello Highway/pieman

Thanks for all the hard work - certainly gives me something to think about before the coming months of gulls, more gulls, hybrid wildfowl and - judging from your local patch - Jack Snipe.

Just noticed two gaps a) all that suppressed Cornish stuff b) I was just wondering if you remembered the rares in that place called Wales (you know, the er, country) as it's misssing from the graph. I know we had some nice birds as I saw (even found) some of them.

Or maybe you're just on a retainer from the Shetland Tourist Board?

Andrew

[Highway Man]

Originally Posted by Andrew Clarke

Just noticed two gaps a) all that suppressed Cornish stuff b) I was just wondering if you remembered the rares in that place called Wales (you know, the er, country) as it's misssing from the graph. I know we had some nice birds as I saw (even found) some of them.

Or maybe you're just on a retainer from the Shetland Tourist Board?

Andrew

Hi Andrew. I lumped Wales with the Northwest to save both parties the embarrasment!

Supression in Cornwall - never.

[lewis20126]

Originally Posted by Highway Man

Due to the dark nights and general boredom I took it upon myself to work out which areas fared the best during October. The not so exciting results can be viewed here

Mark

Good stuff -any graphs available for the string? It would be interesting to see if string is correlated with observer density or observer desperation (no real rarities!).

Cheers,a

[Andrew Clarke]

Oh dear - lumping the land of song with the NW of England - I can feel a few complaints coming from my countrymen... fair point about masking the results though, despite some goodies even the Welsh islands were below standard this October !!!

[chris butterworth]

Originally Posted by lewis20126

observer density

Is that the number of observers or ......
Chris

[Highway Man]

Originally Posted by Andrew Clarke

Oh dear - lumping the land of song with the NW of England - I can feel a few complaints coming from my countrymen... fair point about masking the results though, despite some goodies even the Welsh islands were below standard this October !!!

In view of this and as so not to offend my very distant Welsh cousins I have now ammended it to show Welsh totals.

[Andrew Clarke]

Originally Posted by Highway Man

In view of this and as so not to offend my very distant Welsh cousins I have now ammended it to show Welsh totals.

Nice of you to actually graphically demonstrate just how poor we are at finding rarities down here - diolch yn fawr as they say around here: thanks a lot....

[Gastronaut]

So would you say this proves that Shetland is now better than Scilly for megas?

[Jos Stratford]

Originally Posted by Highway Man

Hi Andrew. I lumped Wales with the Northwest to save both parties the embarrasment!

For many an inhabitant of Wales, or ex-inhabitant, being lumped with the North-East is embarrasment in itself, before a bird is even mentioned. No doubt some in the North-West would feel similar ffor reverse reasons.

[Gavin Haig]

Originally Posted by Gastronaut

So would you say this proves that Shetland is now better than Scilly for megas?

This is a fascinating question, and probably one that hasn't been examined in great depth for at least 5 or 6 minutes....unless Rokermartin is at it right this second on another thread somewhere.

The usual conclusion is that Scilly has basically had it, while Shetland is the required destination for any birders who consider themselves even semi-serious about their art. Scilly is evidently packed with dudes, while Shetland is judiciously studded with rarity-finding machines.

Or so the conventional wisdom has it.

However, consider some numbers:

Shetland = 1,466 sq.km
Scilly = 16.03 sq.km

Shetland is bigger than Scilly by a factor of 91.6.

Shetland has had (if I am reading the bar chart correctly) 68 rarities of 22 species, and Scilly (according to Mark's comment on his blog) 4 rarities of 3 species.

However, by employing the 'correction' factor, we have to conclude either

(a) Scilly had the equivalent of 366.4 rarities of 274.8 species, or
(b) Shetland had, in reality, 0.74 rarities of 0.24 species

Personally I prefer (b), and I expect all those who visited Shetland and filled their greedy boots are now feeling duly deflated and wish they'd gone to Scilly.

This post should probably be liberally filled with assorted smilies and whatnot, but I'd rather presume intelligence...

[Highway Man]

Nice try Gavin But seeing as I merged Scilly and Cornwall in an attempt to draw a fair comparison between Shetland and Cornwall& Scilly your theory doesn't really hold any water.

[Gavin Haig]

Originally Posted by Highway Man

Nice try Gavin But seeing as I merged Scilly and Cornwall in an attempt to draw a fair comparison between Shetland and Cornwall& Scilly your theory doesn't really hold any water.

You're right, of course, and my arithmetic is not an attempt to cast aspersions on your worthy (and fascinating) bar chart. It's really a reply to the oft-asked Q posed mischievously by Gastronaut (and answered regularly - and dogmatically - by another well-known contributor) and is intended simply to draw attention to the 'looseness' of this question.

So many factors are ignored when assessing where is 'best' for rarities: acreage, amount of cover, birder density, type of birder, etc etc. Even when it comes to finding rarities, I'll bet Scilly is still a player. This year aside perhaps (come on - it is the worst on record!), I'm sure a conscientious, hard-working birder has as good a chance on Scilly as on Shetland. Last October I can think of one visiting birder who found 2 yank passerines. I'm sure there are plenty of Shetland regulars who have several weeks under their belt, without a self-found rarity to show for it.

[Harry Hussey]

Hi Mark,
On looking at your analysis, and reading the thread title, I am confronted with an obvious question: where in the UK is this recording area referred to as 'Ireland' on your graph? Know Northern Ireland is in the UK (but NOT Britain...sorry for being pedantic), but I assume most of the BB rarities (albeit assessed by the IRBC) recorded in Ireland this autumn have been in the Republic...
Regards,
Harry

[username]

Originally Posted by chris butterworth

Is that the number of observers or ......
Chris

Super densities?...string theory?...[are the scilly isles forming a 'black hole' perhaps]..?

ps...eleanora's are proving to be as elusive as 'certain' particles....'phantom mechanics' n all that...

[Jos Stratford]

Originally Posted by Harry Hussey

Hi Mark,
On looking at your analysis, and reading the thread title, I am confronted with an obvious question: where in the UK is this recording area referred to as 'Ireland' on your graph? Know Northern Ireland is in the UK (but NOT Britain...sorry for being pedantic), but I assume most of the BB rarities (albeit assessed by the IRBC) recorded in Ireland this autumn have been in the Republic...

Cool, a single thread and both the Welsh and Irish have been insulted in barely twelve posts

[VATH 82]

Originally Posted by username

Super densities?...string theory?...[are the scilly isles forming a 'black hole' perhaps]..?

ps...eleanora's are proving to be as elusive as 'certain' particles....'phantom mechanics' n all that...

...Of course in a parallel Universe the Isles of scilly are still getting megas and Crewe Alexandra are top of the Premier League.

[timwootton]

Originally Posted by Jos Stratford

Cool, a single thread and both the Welsh and Irish have been insulted in barely twelve posts

Not to mention the implicit insult to Yorkshire . . . now we are talking serious ethnic minority bashing. Cruel, very cruel.

[username]

Originally Posted by VATH 82

...Of course in a parallel Universe the Isles of scilly are still getting megas and Crewe Alexandra are top of the Premier League.

Actually...that could..in 'theory'..be true..

ps...i wonder if Leicester City are top of the premiership with Martin O'Neill in yet 'another' parallel universe..? Chuckle..!

[Gastronaut]

Originally Posted by Gavin Haig

This is a fascinating question, and probably one that hasn't been examined in great depth for at least 5 or 6 minutes....unless Rokermartin is at it right this second on another thread somewhere.

The usual conclusion is that Scilly has basically had it, while Shetland is the required destination for any birders who consider themselves even semi-serious about their art. Scilly is evidently packed with dudes, while Shetland is judiciously studded with rarity-finding machines.

Or so the conventional wisdom has it.

However, consider some numbers:

Shetland = 1,466 sq.km
Scilly = 16.03 sq.km

Shetland is bigger than Scilly by a factor of 91.6.

Shetland has had (if I am reading the bar chart correctly) 68 rarities of 22 species, and Scilly (according to Mark's comment on his blog) 4 rarities of 3 species.

However, by employing the 'correction' factor, we have to conclude either

(a) Scilly had the equivalent of 366.4 rarities of 274.8 species, or
(b) Shetland had, in reality, 0.74 rarities of 0.24 species

Personally I prefer (b), and I expect all those who visited Shetland and filled their greedy boots are now feeling duly deflated and wish they'd gone to Scilly.

This post should probably be liberally filled with assorted smilies and whatnot, but I'd rather presume intelligence...

Fantastic analysis Gavin. Another factor not yet mentioned is the vegetation and other hiding places for rares. Shetland has none and all rare birds are stood out in the open all the time fluffing themselves up to look as big and noticeable as possible. Scilly on the other hand is a jungle. Some of those bulb fields could still harbour relict populations of dinosaur lurking amongst the Pittosporum and nobody would ever know. So in summary tripping over a rare bird on Shetland is about as difficult as falling down a hill whereas finding one on Scilly takes real skill and courage.

Cornwall is just a birdless hell so doesn't really affect the stats.

[Gavin Haig]

Originally Posted by Gastronaut

So in summary tripping over a rare bird on Shetland is about as difficult as falling down a hill whereas finding one on Scilly takes real skill and courage.

Just what I've always thought, but never dared say....

[McMadd]

Originally Posted by username

ps...i wonder if Leicester City are top of the premiership with Martin O'Neill in yet 'another' parallel universe..? Chuckle..!

Not sure there are quite that many parallel (or otherwise) universes 'name :0)

McMadd in the land of the snow (tonight at least...)

[CornishExile]

Originally Posted by Gastronaut

Cornwall is just a birdless hell so doesn't really affect the stats.

That's what we want you to believe...

ce

[username]

Originally Posted by McMadd

Not sure there are quite that many parallel (or otherwise) universes 'name :0)

McMadd in the land of the snow (tonight at least...)

Chuckle!

ps..there are more universes than you might think Mr.McMadd...i've counted at least '8'.......

'User' in the Leicester-land of cold drizzly rain...[just come out of pub]..!