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Are bird numbers falling in Greece? (1 Viewer)

Did you look at any of the articles I cite at the end of my paper? It may interest you know that the Engels paper, "Anthropogenic magnetic noise disrupts magnetic compass etc." was the cover story on Nature Magazine on 15th May 2015, that more than 500 newspapers reported it, as well as at least 20 radio stations, German and Danish TV, and it was discussed live on BBC World News on the 18th of May 2014. I think you will agree that Nature does not publish speculation.

I've been following this thread with interest, and agree with Jos's comments that it is an interesting area which requires further study.

I agree that Nature is a highly respected journal which does not publish unfounded speculation, although I don't think extensive press coverage (or a lack thereof) provides any additional support for its veracity.

I do wonder if you have read and understood it yourself? I'm not a physicist either, so I must admit they lost me a little when talking of quantum spin dynamics. However, they did regain my attention and comprehension with their conclusions, which stated 'The disruptive effects we observe cannot be attributed to power lines (16.7 Hz or 50 Hz fields) or to mobile phone signals (GHz frequencies) or to any other fields with frequencies below 2 kHz or above 5 MHz because outside this range the electromagnetic noise was of similar intensity in all conditions (Fig. 4, Extended Data Fig. 2). Electromagnetic noise in the frequency-band 2 kHz−5 MHz originates primarily from AM radio signals and from electronic equipment running in university buildings, businesses, and private houses. The effects of these weak electromagnetic fields generated by everyday human activity, however, are striking: they disrupt the function of an entire sensory system in a higher vertebrate.' (my emphasis)

So, this is an issue we should be concerned about, particularly with respect to possible effects on migratory birds, and surely demands further research. But unless I've misread it (and I'm happy for anyone with better knowledge of physics to correct me!), this paper does not offer any support for your hypothesis that 4G is a causative agent in declining bird populations.
 
Hi Diana,

If I change the sentence you object to it will not change my overall conclusion: less signal, more birds; strong signal, fewer birds. I don't need a physics degree to know that Samos is losing all its birds. You are nit-picking.

You don't need a physics degree, but a bit of college-level physics would help you understand why the sentence as originally phrased seriously compromises the credibility of your entire article.

I would assume that one can find good data on the bird population of Samos supporting your personal observations, but proving that any decrease is directly caused by electromagnetic radiation is taking the chain of evidence one very big step farther.

Did you look at any of the articles I cite at the end of my paper?

I looked at one of the articles cited in the US document you linked, briefly checked on the part that appeared most interesting, and found that it implied a causal relationship based on a correlation derived from a very limited sample.

While I haven't personally read it, I suspect this book could prove useful for you as it promises to point out some of the pitfalls to watch out for when assessing published claims:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_Science_(book)

The title might sound a bit harsh, but I'd expect that when you start off a campaign against a big industry, you'll probably going to find that they'll try to find and exploit any weakness in your arguments, and the studies that support those. So, it might be better to give them a good look beforehand ...

Regards,

Henning
 
Hi, Jos,
Unfortunately you are the only person on Birdforum to come up with any actual figures, so I haven't got much basis for comparison one way or another. I think I told you I heard from someone in Ireland on another forum--he's seen bird numbers fall, and populations change, since his tower went 4G a year ago. Someone else who writes how to find birds guides noticed a huge decline in bird numbers, and patterns like I am seeing, after Turkey went 4G, in 2014. I don't think I'm the only person who has noticed this connection by any means. Henning thinks I should learn more physics but he doesn't tell me why he is so sure wireless signals are not responsible for declining bird populations in Germany. It's very easy to dismiss evidence as "anecdotal" but that doesn't mean it's not evidence. "I saw X kill Y" is anecdotal evidence, yet perfectly acceptable in a court of law. I am currently pursuing other lines to try to get more information--if you have any ideas that can help me here, please tell me. I want to find out how resident bird populations are doing in the US National Quiet Zone (parts of Virginia, West Virginia and Southern Maryland) because there have never been any wireless signals there due to the space listening station in Green Bank. I also want o find out how bird populations are doing in Turkey, where it's been 4G for some time, 4.5G for the last year and a bit, and where 5G has been tested in various places around the country. Obviously one will have to take other factors into consideration, but it's a start. On Samos I started looking into wireless because I could definitely exclude other factors--pesticides, development, habitat loss, extreme climate variation in recent years. At the end of the day, even the people who say that more work needs to be done must allow time to do it. Europe recognizes the precautionary principle (Resolution 1815, Council of Europe), so why isn't it applying it? There's a lot of evidence that EMR is harmful to humans, too, yet we go on and on upgrading systems, racing to 5G, with a technology that some people argue has not been proved dangerous and I would argue has not been proved safe. What if I am right and 5G wipes out birds everywhere? If I'm wrong but meanwhile we've slowed down enough to be sure the technology is safe, at least no harm has been done.
 
Hi, Henning,
Please see my reply to Jos, above. I can certainly change the sentence we are arguing about and take out the words "As a result". In any case I think more birds at Kerkini primarily results from the fact that Kerkini is still 3G, and I think I made clear that even so, I feel that the number of new towers has reduced the number of birds at Kerkini compared with previous years. You find fault with my arguments, and think I may be coming to the wrong conclusions from my observations. Fair enough. But what evidence do you have that wireless radiation is safe for birds? Or for humans? I think if you look you will find that the majority of studies that say wireless radiation is safe are industry-sponsored, versus the majority of studies that are not industry-sponsored saying wireless radiation is not safe. And it is not always easy to work out, since industry funds work at universities and places which ought to be independent. As far as I can tell no one has any vision of the future that does not involve fast wireless connections, IOT, 5G and so on. So if it does prove to be dangerous, you will see major stock market crashes, turmoil etc. All our eggs are in one basket, and that is never a good idea. That also means there is too much riding on a single plan for the future--no plan B, unless you count stifling dissent as a plan. The elephant in the room is that, even when you've got 5G and driverless cars and the Internet of Things and all that goes with it you still aren't going to fix the world's economy--you need jobs for that. I think we may end up killing the birds for another dot-com bubble, and if we do it will be immensely, immeasurably sad.
 
To KB57,

You are right, and I didn't cite the article specifically to prove that 4G is causing birds to disappear. But what it does show is that man-made frequencies are disrupting birds' ability to migrate. If you are interested in this topic, look at www.emf-portal.org and do a search, e.g. birds + migration + EMF. There are some interesting studies of other migratory creatures, including krill.

I think I've said what I want to in the two responses above. I really really think we shouldn't be pushing on with a potentially unsafe technology which may cause damage we can never undo unless independent research demonstrates that it is safe for us and nature. I know I'm in over my head but I truly miss waking up to birdsong, and where I live there has not been any for over a year.
 
Hi, Jos,
Unfortunately you are the only person on Birdforum to come up with any actual figures, so I haven't got much basis for comparison one way or another.

I would recommend perhaps results of CBC or the annual garden bird counts in the UK - these go back over decades and tracks changes in abundance of all the common small birds, certainly to the period prior to any mobile phones (I used to do a CBC in Britain long before mobile phones were around). Perhaps you may find something there.
 
Hi Diana,

Henning thinks I should learn more physics but he doesn't tell me why he is so sure wireless signals are not responsible for declining bird populations in Germany.

Actually, you're misrepresenting my position there. I left open whether wireless signals have a negative impact, but I highlighted that the negative development is mainly driven by well-known negative factors.

Other than that, just have a look at the "Atlas der Brutvögel Deutschlands" for a thorough, methodical, quantified, long-term overview of bird populations in Germany if you'd like to learn more about the topic.

Or try to find out whether there are similar methodical bird monitoring programs in Greece, if you prefer something that might directly correlate with your observations. I can't imagine Greece as uncharted territory, ornithology-wise.

I can certainly change the sentence we are arguing about and take out the words "As a result".

I don't think it's a good idea to change anything just to do me a favour. Use your own judgement to the best of your ability - if you're fine with that sentence, just leave it as it is.

Regards,

Henning
 
I would recommend perhaps results of CBC or the annual garden bird counts in the UK - these go back over decades and tracks changes in abundance of all the common small birds, certainly to the period prior to any mobile phones (I used to do a CBC in Britain long before mobile phones were around). Perhaps you may find something there.

As I said way back the BTO Garden birdwatch stats and Birdtrack both have lots of data and trends going back before mobile phones in the UK. The data is analysed annually by the BTO and the short medium and long-term trends discussed - none of which if I recall correctly mention the potential impact of EMR. As has been written elsewhere the trends in the UK are all over the place dependent on species and whether resident/migratory. Some species have recovered really well in the past few years.

I for one am not doubting:

1. Bird numbers in Samos have been severely affected by something
2. EMR can impact animal (and human) health and well being - the effect being dependent on signal strength, exposure duration and frequency.

but I am seeing nothing other than speculative conjecture that links the two. There is a famous graph of two lines that follow each other almost exactly over a 20 year period, and one would immediately suspect a link - until you learn one is WTI crude oil price at Cushing Oklahoma and the other is heavy rock album sales (or something equally bizarre). It's technically called a 'spurious correlation causation', and demonstrating it's absence is a key part of any scientific study. See as an example:

https://www.angelo.edu/faculty/ljones/gov3301/block9/objective7.htm

Until you can find some way to link the two (and suggest why the same phenomenon is not being repeated wherever 4G exists) then I doubt you will get any useful traction or action from anyone. Currently the world (aided by the Internet for sure) is drowning in people demonstrating 'correlation' between trends and expecting others to listen and act, but they rarely demonstrate 'causation'.
Sadly those that DO demonstrate causation (climate change, coral reef bleaching, sea level rising) can then get trashed and ignored because of this background.

Personally I'd try the Greek branch of Birdlife International and see what data they have for larger sections of Greece, and if they have any knowledge of studies into other potential causes.

Mick
 
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Hi Mick,

There is a famous graph of two lines that follow each other almost exactly over a 20 year period, and one would immediately suspect a link - until you learn one is WTI crude oil price at Cushing Oklahoma and the other is heavy rock album sales (or something equally bizarre). It's technically called a 'spurious correlation causation', and demonstrating it's absence is a key part of any scientific study.

Thanks a lot for the explanation!

Here's an ornithology-related example from a British scientist:

http://www.econ.queensu.ca/files/other/storks.pdf

Regards,

Henning
 
To KB57,

You are right, and I didn't cite the article specifically to prove that 4G is causing birds to disappear. But what it does show is that man-made frequencies are disrupting birds' ability to migrate. If you are interested in this topic, look at www.emf-portal.org and do a search, e.g. birds + migration + EMF. There are some interesting studies of other migratory creatures, including krill.

I've had a look at the portal - thanks, there is some interesting research there. I'm not trying to denigrate your argument, as there is clearly potentially a causal link, with the mechanism being disruption to the magnetic receptor in birds. It's not the same as the correlation with stork population and birth rate! But the Nature paper doesn't just fail to support your argument, it points the finger at other causative agents, in the form of lower frequency signals from AM radio etc. It is very easy to misinterpret a scientific paper - the press are expert at it (!), even Natural England published some guidelines on effects of solar farms which quoted a paper as evidence that bats may mistake the panels for water and fly into them - when I read the paper it said nothing of the sort.

A search of the EMF-portal does turn up some interesting papers, although what seems clear is that there is considerable debate within the scientific community about the links between EMR and human health / environmental effects - it still seems a controversial area. I knew a scientist some years ago who had researched effects of EMR from high-voltage powerlines on algae, with completely inconclusive results.

With respect to bird migration, I remember speculation back in the '70s when yellow-browed warblers started to turn up more frequently in UK, that their reverse migration was due to some sort of secret Soviet weapons testing. Maybe there is a grain of truth in this, but I'm guessing Siberia probably doesn't have great 4G coverage yet.

Clearly migrating birds have to navigate through a whole lot of human-induced electromagnetic clutter, as well as brightly lit cities, communication towers etc. Bright lights are known to disorient migrating birds with potentially fatal consequences (strangely, a fact recognised more in North America than Europe), so it will be difficult to disaggregate EMR effects from light pollution.

I think I've said what I want to in the two responses above. I really really think we shouldn't be pushing on with a potentially unsafe technology which may cause damage we can never undo unless independent research demonstrates that it is safe for us and nature. I know I'm in over my head but I truly miss waking up to birdsong, and where I live there has not been any for over a year.

I agree that we should be applying the precautionary principle where new technology is concerned, as prescribed in the Birds and Habitats Directives, and it is true that the whole communications technology thing appears outside of anyone's (national Govt., EU etc.) control. Given that we're willing to (possibly!) increase our cancer risk in order to play games on our mobiles, I don't think we're in control as individuals either...

I think the slight scepticism (mixed, I must say, with interest!) that your observations have engendered comes from the fact that they aren't shared by others, such as Jos in Lithuania. For my part, my village in NE England went from having virtually no mobile phone signal to 4G last year, and I have to say if anything the garden house sparrows have increased in number, I woke up to a singing blackcap throughout the spring. These - like yours - are not quantitative observations, and can't be used to say that 4G is harmless.

Your observations could perhaps be explained by other hypotheses - for example, the large scale illegal trapping of songbirds in the Eastern Mediterranean flyway. Overexploited populations don't always just gradually decline, they can seem OK for a while and then crash. So maybe you need to find some friendly academics to help.

As others have suggested, it would be necessary to look at quantitative bird data from sites before and after 4G implementation to find correlations, while keeping an open mind about causes. This is actually something that a GIS expert, ecologist and statistician should be able to look at quite easily on an international level, provided you are able to access spatial data from mobile phone companies or governments showing extent and date of introduction of 4G.
 
I agree with kb57's comments above, and is a slightly fuller statement of what I tried to say in post #28 above.
Mick
 
Hi Kb57,

I'm not trying to denigrate your argument, as there is clearly potentially a causal link, with the mechanism being disruption to the magnetic receptor in birds. It's not the same as the correlation with stork population and birth rate!

Diana seems to describe non-migratory species as being equally affected as migratory ones. From Berthold's "Vogelzug", birds also don't rely on a single sense for navigation. A potential causal link would have to be rather intricate to explain a uniform decline, and regardless of the plausibility, couldn't be proved from a correlation alone.

The stork example merely illustrates that a correlation doesn't prove a causal relationship.

Regards,

Henning
 
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