Is there not a third possibility which, whilst reflevting these two points, is subtly different from either? That is Baillon's Crake have always visited the UK, but it took the exceptional amount of spring rain to incline them to stay around for long enough to be found.
Thanks for the comment John. Yes, completely agree with you. I think we had lumped your thought under option a) but perhaps didn't explore it enough. As you say, how many suitable sites would have the appropriate water levels in June in a normal year if Baillon's turned up. This could apply to Spotted Crake also, which few people deliberately manage for. I think we could manage for, and attract, more crakes with a little effort.