First Purple Finches began invading the mid-Atlantic states in unusually large numbers. Just yesterday, a Pine Siskin flight was noted along Long Island's barrier beaches. A saw-whet owl seen at a confidential location was mentioned due to unusual daytime behavior. All these were mentioned as being likely candidates for irruption this year (the crossbills aren't scheduled to head south though).
In case you haven't seen it, here's highlights from it (I deleted accounts of birds not scheduled to irrupt, or are of little interest), as it's too long to post....
WINTER FINCH FORECAST 2007-2008
This winter's theme is "finches going in three directions" depending
on the species. Some finches have gone east and west or both, while
others will come south. Most coniferous and deciduous trees have very
poor seed crops in much of Ontario and western Quebec. The exception
is northwestern Ontario such as Quetico Provincial Park, Dryden and
Lake of the Woods, where there are good crops on some species.
However, north of a line from the top of Lake Nipigon to Manitoba the
crops are generally low in the boreal forest. This will be a quiet
winter for most (not all) winter finches in Algonquin Provincial
Park, in contrast to last winter's bumper seed crops and abundance of
finches. Most of last winter's White-winged Crossbills and Pine
Siskins departed Ontario this past summer. They probably went either
to eastern or western Canada or both where there are bumper cone
crops. Type 3 Red Crossbills, which were abundant in Ontario last
winter, have probably returned to their core range in western North
America. White-winged and Red Crossbills and Pine Siskins will not be
irrupting south out of Ontario as they do in some flight years,
because most have already gone east and/or west. However, other
winter finches such as Pine Grosbeaks, Evening Grosbeaks, Purple
Finches and redpolls are irrupting or will irrupt southward out of
northern Ontario.
INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS
Pine Grosbeak: This grosbeak will irrupt south of the breeding range
because crops on native mountain-ashes (rowan berries) are generally
poor in northeastern Ontario and across the boreal forest. However,
crops are good in northwestern Ontario west of Lake Superior. Pine
Grosbeaks should wander south to Lake Ontario and perhaps farther in
search of crabapples and planted European mountain-ash berries, which
have average crops in southern Ontario. Watch for them at feeders
where they prefer sunflower seeds. After irruptions, Pine Grosbeaks
return north earlier than other northern finches. Most are gone by
late March. Buds form a larger part of their winter diet when
mountain-ash crops are poor.
The last big Pine Grosbeak year was the winter of 2001-02, which occurred after
the last widespread "bumper" cone crop of 2000-01. We are primed for a flight
here in Central NY. Look for juveniles and females with perhaps a few adult
males making it south into Central NY. More adult males will be present in
Adirondacks and other parts of Northeast. Again, we are primed to see this
rarest northern visitor here in Central NY.
Purple Finch:
Look for very few Purple Finches in NY and the Northeast this year with the
exception of perhaps small numbers occurring downstate south of the Catskills
to Long Island. Good numbers should be present southward into Mid-Atlantic
States, Appalachians and the Carolinas.
Red Crossbill:
Look for a few Red Crossbills to again persist in Chenango County(Central NY)
where Red Crossbills have been present since at least winter 2004!! Last winter
and spring Red Crossbill types nested in small to moderate numbers throughout NY excluding south of Catskills and extreme Western NY. They were more widespread than White-winged Crossbills in NY last year, but the opposite was true for the rest of the Northeast.
White-winged Crossbill: This crossbill moves back and forth across
northern coniferous forests searching for new cone crops. Most
White-winged Crossbills left Ontario this past summer. They will be
scarce or absent in Ontario this winter. They presumably went either
west to bumper spruce and fir cone crops in Alberta and British
Columbia, and/or to Atlantic Canada, which has large cone crops on
spruce and balsam fir, particularly in Newfoundland and Cape Breton
Island in Nova Scotia. White-winged Crossbills are currently common
in Newfoundland and western Canada.
After last year's Adirondack and Northeastern nesting event, look for a
scattered flock or two of White-winged Crossbills in Adirondacks, but like the
forecast predicts they will be generally scarce or absent in NY and much of the
Northeast this winter.
Common and Hoary Redpolls: There will be a big flight of redpolls
into southern Ontario and bordering United States. Seed crops on
white birch, yellow birch and alder are very poor in most of Ontario.
Expect redpolls at bird feeders this winter. Far northwestern Ontario
has a good white birch crop so redpolls may be common there.
There hasn't been a "big" redpoll flight in Central NY south of Adirondacks
since 2003-2004 and that occurred fairly late in the season in late January and
February. There were modest redpoll flights in the Adirondacks in 2004-2005 and 2005-2006. We are primed for a big flight in the Northeast, the Adirondacks AND south of the Adirondacks here in Central NY. Look for small numbers perhaps even on Long Island and northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Pine Siskin: Similar to the White-winged Crossbill, most Pine Siskins
departed Ontario this past summer, presumably attracted to huge
spruce and fir cone crops in Alberta and British Columbia and/or to
big spruce and balsam fir cone crops in Newfoundland and Cape Breton
Island and probably elsewhere in the Atlantic Provinces. Some of the
very few siskins that remained in Ontario are now wandering south
with sightings of usually only ones and twos in southern Ontario.
Large southward irruptions occur when cone crop failures span much of
Canada. Very few siskins will visit feeders this winter in southern Ontario.
There were nearly zero fall or spring migrating Pine Siskins in New York last
year. Unlike the other finch species, excluding Purple Finch, there is almost
always a fall and spring Pine Siskin pulse (push of migrating birds through
NY). Look for the "pulse" to happen this year. In fact, I would not be
surprised given the amount of feeders in the Adirondacks (and perhaps more
populated wooded areas of Northeast) and Central NY that small numbers (a few here and there) persist here in Central NY and perhaps Southern NY at feeders mixed in with redpoll and goldfinch flocks.. with Goldfinch flocks earlier in season and redpoll flocks later in the season. There is evidence that Pine
Siskins are starting to build in small numbers again in the Adirondacks. There
have been recent sightings of a few to 50 in parts of Northern NY. Pine Siskins
have been nearly continuously persistent in parts of the Adirondacks since 2001
when they bred in very large numbers throughout much of the state. They again
bred last year in the Adirondacks in small numbers. Good evidence exists to
support the idea that Pine Siskins have nested in small numbers in the state
every year since 2001!
Evening Grosbeak: Expect Evening Grosbeaks at bird feeders in southern Ontario and northern United States, but not in
the large numbers seen during the 1970s.
OTHER IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES
Bohemian Waxwing: The poor crop of native mountain-ash (rowan
berries) in much of northern Ontario will cause Bohemians Waxwings to
wander south and east this winter. Watch for them eating buckthorn
berries and crabapples in southern Ontario. The mountain-ash crop is
better west of Lake Superior with a big crop around Kenora at Lake of
the Woods.
Look for Bohemian Waxwings at their usual haunts ...crabapple trees and other
fruiting trees from Northern NY (particularly the St. Lawrence and Champlain
Lake Plains) northward throughout parts of Northeast. Birds should become more common as we get into late December and early January and look for smaller flocks to make their way into Central NY and perhaps Southern NY come
February-April.
NORTHERN OWLS
Small mammal populations were abundant this summer in northern
Ontario, presumably increasing after the big seed/berry/fruit crops
in 2006. However, crops this year are very poor in much of the north,
partly caused by cold weather and snow in late spring that froze the
buds and flowers of many plants. In early August, Ontario Ministry of
Natural Resources biologists on aerial surveys noted many raptors
near James Bay including 15-20 Great Gray Owls, Short-eared Owls
(common), Northern Harriers (common) and scattered Rough-legged
Hawks. If small mammal populations crash this fall, then Great Gray
Owls, Northern Hawk Owls and Boreal Owls will move, possibly
southward into areas accessible by birders. Northern Saw-whet Owl
numbers are linked to red-backed voles (a forest vole) in Ontario.
There is the possibility that this vole could decline soon because it
often cycles with deer mice. The huge population of deer mice in
central Ontario is declining rapidly now because of poor seed crops
this summer, particularly sugar maple samaras, which they store for
the winter. If red-backed vole numbers decline as they often do in
association with deer mice, there will be a strong flight of Northern
Saw-whet Owls this fall.
Lets see what the owls bring.. things could shape up nicely. We're also due for
a big Rough-leg flight, which also occurred the winter of 2001-02 the year
after the last bumper cone crop.
In case you haven't seen it, here's highlights from it (I deleted accounts of birds not scheduled to irrupt, or are of little interest), as it's too long to post....
WINTER FINCH FORECAST 2007-2008
This winter's theme is "finches going in three directions" depending
on the species. Some finches have gone east and west or both, while
others will come south. Most coniferous and deciduous trees have very
poor seed crops in much of Ontario and western Quebec. The exception
is northwestern Ontario such as Quetico Provincial Park, Dryden and
Lake of the Woods, where there are good crops on some species.
However, north of a line from the top of Lake Nipigon to Manitoba the
crops are generally low in the boreal forest. This will be a quiet
winter for most (not all) winter finches in Algonquin Provincial
Park, in contrast to last winter's bumper seed crops and abundance of
finches. Most of last winter's White-winged Crossbills and Pine
Siskins departed Ontario this past summer. They probably went either
to eastern or western Canada or both where there are bumper cone
crops. Type 3 Red Crossbills, which were abundant in Ontario last
winter, have probably returned to their core range in western North
America. White-winged and Red Crossbills and Pine Siskins will not be
irrupting south out of Ontario as they do in some flight years,
because most have already gone east and/or west. However, other
winter finches such as Pine Grosbeaks, Evening Grosbeaks, Purple
Finches and redpolls are irrupting or will irrupt southward out of
northern Ontario.
INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS
Pine Grosbeak: This grosbeak will irrupt south of the breeding range
because crops on native mountain-ashes (rowan berries) are generally
poor in northeastern Ontario and across the boreal forest. However,
crops are good in northwestern Ontario west of Lake Superior. Pine
Grosbeaks should wander south to Lake Ontario and perhaps farther in
search of crabapples and planted European mountain-ash berries, which
have average crops in southern Ontario. Watch for them at feeders
where they prefer sunflower seeds. After irruptions, Pine Grosbeaks
return north earlier than other northern finches. Most are gone by
late March. Buds form a larger part of their winter diet when
mountain-ash crops are poor.
The last big Pine Grosbeak year was the winter of 2001-02, which occurred after
the last widespread "bumper" cone crop of 2000-01. We are primed for a flight
here in Central NY. Look for juveniles and females with perhaps a few adult
males making it south into Central NY. More adult males will be present in
Adirondacks and other parts of Northeast. Again, we are primed to see this
rarest northern visitor here in Central NY.
Purple Finch:
Look for very few Purple Finches in NY and the Northeast this year with the
exception of perhaps small numbers occurring downstate south of the Catskills
to Long Island. Good numbers should be present southward into Mid-Atlantic
States, Appalachians and the Carolinas.
Red Crossbill:
Look for a few Red Crossbills to again persist in Chenango County(Central NY)
where Red Crossbills have been present since at least winter 2004!! Last winter
and spring Red Crossbill types nested in small to moderate numbers throughout NY excluding south of Catskills and extreme Western NY. They were more widespread than White-winged Crossbills in NY last year, but the opposite was true for the rest of the Northeast.
White-winged Crossbill: This crossbill moves back and forth across
northern coniferous forests searching for new cone crops. Most
White-winged Crossbills left Ontario this past summer. They will be
scarce or absent in Ontario this winter. They presumably went either
west to bumper spruce and fir cone crops in Alberta and British
Columbia, and/or to Atlantic Canada, which has large cone crops on
spruce and balsam fir, particularly in Newfoundland and Cape Breton
Island in Nova Scotia. White-winged Crossbills are currently common
in Newfoundland and western Canada.
After last year's Adirondack and Northeastern nesting event, look for a
scattered flock or two of White-winged Crossbills in Adirondacks, but like the
forecast predicts they will be generally scarce or absent in NY and much of the
Northeast this winter.
Common and Hoary Redpolls: There will be a big flight of redpolls
into southern Ontario and bordering United States. Seed crops on
white birch, yellow birch and alder are very poor in most of Ontario.
Expect redpolls at bird feeders this winter. Far northwestern Ontario
has a good white birch crop so redpolls may be common there.
There hasn't been a "big" redpoll flight in Central NY south of Adirondacks
since 2003-2004 and that occurred fairly late in the season in late January and
February. There were modest redpoll flights in the Adirondacks in 2004-2005 and 2005-2006. We are primed for a big flight in the Northeast, the Adirondacks AND south of the Adirondacks here in Central NY. Look for small numbers perhaps even on Long Island and northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Pine Siskin: Similar to the White-winged Crossbill, most Pine Siskins
departed Ontario this past summer, presumably attracted to huge
spruce and fir cone crops in Alberta and British Columbia and/or to
big spruce and balsam fir cone crops in Newfoundland and Cape Breton
Island and probably elsewhere in the Atlantic Provinces. Some of the
very few siskins that remained in Ontario are now wandering south
with sightings of usually only ones and twos in southern Ontario.
Large southward irruptions occur when cone crop failures span much of
Canada. Very few siskins will visit feeders this winter in southern Ontario.
There were nearly zero fall or spring migrating Pine Siskins in New York last
year. Unlike the other finch species, excluding Purple Finch, there is almost
always a fall and spring Pine Siskin pulse (push of migrating birds through
NY). Look for the "pulse" to happen this year. In fact, I would not be
surprised given the amount of feeders in the Adirondacks (and perhaps more
populated wooded areas of Northeast) and Central NY that small numbers (a few here and there) persist here in Central NY and perhaps Southern NY at feeders mixed in with redpoll and goldfinch flocks.. with Goldfinch flocks earlier in season and redpoll flocks later in the season. There is evidence that Pine
Siskins are starting to build in small numbers again in the Adirondacks. There
have been recent sightings of a few to 50 in parts of Northern NY. Pine Siskins
have been nearly continuously persistent in parts of the Adirondacks since 2001
when they bred in very large numbers throughout much of the state. They again
bred last year in the Adirondacks in small numbers. Good evidence exists to
support the idea that Pine Siskins have nested in small numbers in the state
every year since 2001!
Evening Grosbeak: Expect Evening Grosbeaks at bird feeders in southern Ontario and northern United States, but not in
the large numbers seen during the 1970s.
OTHER IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES
Bohemian Waxwing: The poor crop of native mountain-ash (rowan
berries) in much of northern Ontario will cause Bohemians Waxwings to
wander south and east this winter. Watch for them eating buckthorn
berries and crabapples in southern Ontario. The mountain-ash crop is
better west of Lake Superior with a big crop around Kenora at Lake of
the Woods.
Look for Bohemian Waxwings at their usual haunts ...crabapple trees and other
fruiting trees from Northern NY (particularly the St. Lawrence and Champlain
Lake Plains) northward throughout parts of Northeast. Birds should become more common as we get into late December and early January and look for smaller flocks to make their way into Central NY and perhaps Southern NY come
February-April.
NORTHERN OWLS
Small mammal populations were abundant this summer in northern
Ontario, presumably increasing after the big seed/berry/fruit crops
in 2006. However, crops this year are very poor in much of the north,
partly caused by cold weather and snow in late spring that froze the
buds and flowers of many plants. In early August, Ontario Ministry of
Natural Resources biologists on aerial surveys noted many raptors
near James Bay including 15-20 Great Gray Owls, Short-eared Owls
(common), Northern Harriers (common) and scattered Rough-legged
Hawks. If small mammal populations crash this fall, then Great Gray
Owls, Northern Hawk Owls and Boreal Owls will move, possibly
southward into areas accessible by birders. Northern Saw-whet Owl
numbers are linked to red-backed voles (a forest vole) in Ontario.
There is the possibility that this vole could decline soon because it
often cycles with deer mice. The huge population of deer mice in
central Ontario is declining rapidly now because of poor seed crops
this summer, particularly sugar maple samaras, which they store for
the winter. If red-backed vole numbers decline as they often do in
association with deer mice, there will be a strong flight of Northern
Saw-whet Owls this fall.
Lets see what the owls bring.. things could shape up nicely. We're also due for
a big Rough-leg flight, which also occurred the winter of 2001-02 the year
after the last bumper cone crop.
