Nikon FF (and DX) Mirrorless rumours/ announcements (3 Viewers)

[dalethorn]

That would be my strategy as well. Making completely new design I suspect would be more costly, and they are to be used with a system that so far is still needing to prove itself regarding earnings power.
Niels

That's a real shame. People beat up on Leica because of their high prices and botique marketing, but they do occasionally make breakthrough products without concern for protecting other lines. Such as introducing the Q2 at 47mp when the SL remains at 24mp. Or when they introduced 3 new breakthrough cameras at once in Sept. 2009.

Nikon could have made the Z50 a real challenge to Fuji, but I suspect Fuji is breathing a sigh of relief right now.

 

[JPAC]

Hopefully faster computers will mean better and faster lens designs these days. I would expect Nikon to make a similar 200-600mm lens to Sony. Maybe f6.3 at the long end.

 

[Chosun Juan]

Hopefully faster computers will mean better and faster lens designs these days. I would expect Nikon to make a similar 200-600mm lens to Sony. Maybe f6.3 at the long end.

Maybe the design Sony used was purchased from a third party and perhaps it will also be available to Nikon?

However, I really hope it's f5.6 at the long end - it helps in all sorts of ways as light levels drop from peak.

I also hope they really concentrate on bringing it in at less than 2kg via some lightweight though weather sealed materials.

To match the small mirrorless bodies and grips it should also be as small and rearward weight balanced as possible, while delivering on that f5.6 long end. They should also also try to offer a level of sharpness above what the third party lenses already offer ......




Chosun :gh:

 

[nikonmike]

Not quite a Nikon 1 replacement but close

 

[Chosun Juan]

Not quite a Nikon 1 replacement but close

Looking at that comparison picture - can you Imagine! a Full Frame sensor in that little Z50 body with pancake and compact zoom lenses ?! (I'm sure Nikon can't unfortunately

As I was reading the details of the Z50 for the first time it did strike me that the whole concept was reminiscent of the 1 series, in that it seems to have some handicaps, and no knockout killer blows. It seems Nikon wants it in its place and only in it's place. I hope the whole thing is not deja vu ...... again !

I really wish Nikon would resurrect the 1 series and un-hobble it so that it could compete. If only Nikon had made the Z mount's FFL 17mm like the 1 series there would have been some compatibility potential across 3 formats ! Nikon just wasn't thinking !

This is DPReview's take on Nikon's APS-C strategy (Canon too).
https://m.dpreview.com/opinion/4178727265/what-the-z50-tells-us-about-nikon-s-aps-c-strategy

I have to say that if this is anywhere close to the mark, then I have grave concerns for Nikon's, and the Industry's future. It seems APS-C development will again take place at snails pace, and the potential hobbled (yet again). They will still be protecting their Full Frame market segments as the whole lot is carted off to the grave dug by billion$ of cellphones .......

So much lost opportunity ......





Chosun :gh:

 

[JPAC]

Maybe the design Sony used was purchased from a third party and perhaps it will also be available to Nikon?

However, I really hope it's f5.6 at the long end - it helps in all sorts of ways as light levels drop from peak.

I also hope they really concentrate on bringing it in at less than 2kg via some lightweight though weather sealed materials.

To match the small mirrorless bodies and grips it should also be as small and rearward weight balanced as possible, while delivering on that f5.6 long end. They should also also try to offer a level of sharpness above what the third party lenses already offer ......

Chosun :gh:

A small change of f (factor) stop in a long lens makes the lens so much bigger or smaller. Remember when the 400mm f2.8 came out, it was so much bigger than the f3.5 version. At 600mm it would be even greater. Most of the weight in telephotos is in the large front elements, so I can't think of how to put the weight in the back of the lens. 2kg is a big ask.

btw: I read your username as chosen swan for some reason. .

 

[Chosun Juan]

A small change of f (factor) stop in a long lens makes the lens so much bigger or smaller. Remember when the 400mm f2.8 came out, it was so much bigger than the f3.5 version. At 600mm it would be even greater. Most of the weight in telephotos is in the large front elements, so I can't think of how to put the weight in the back of the lens. 2kg is a big ask.

btw: I read your username as chosen swan for some reason. .

Yes, a sub 2kg 200-600 with f5.6 at the long end is a big ask for sure, but with some design effort I don't think impossible .....

Most of the long supertelephoto exotics (Nikon lagging) have now gone to a lightweight objective long optical train design with dense grouping at the rear of the lens.

The f5.6 objective at 600mm would be 107mm diameter (the same as a 300mm f2.8). This would have a 26.5% bigger area than the 600/f6.3 objective of 95mm, so careful attention must be paid to the optical design to minimize weight at the front end. Thin aspherical elements and very high spec ED glass (synthetic fluorite equivalent) would be required along with lightweight chassis materials.

Using CFRP, Whisker Titanium Graphite, and Magnesium Metal Matrix Composites (either Carbon Fibre or Titanium reinforcement) should get the job done. The amount of these materials used is fairly minimal, and given that Sony wants about $2K for its 200-600, I think economically viable at that market point.

Manufacturers really need to realize that light weight is where it's at and get with the program. We already have sub 2kg Third Party 150-600 supertelephoto zooms of f6.3 aperture at the long end. The last thing we need is more duplication in the market ...... we need advancement !

For comparison, here are the lens construction schematics of some current lens offerings:

Nikon 200-500 f5.6 2300grms 268mm long 19 elements /12 groups


Sony 200-600 f5-f6.3 2115grms 318mm long 24 elements /17 groups


Tamron G2 150-600 f5-f6.3 1990grms 258mm long 21 elements /13 groups


Canon 600 f4L IS III 3050grms 448mm long 17 elements /13 groups






Chosun :gh:

 

[nikonmike]

Looking at that comparison picture - can you Imagine! a Full Frame sensor in that little Z50 body with pancake and compact zoom lenses ?! (I'm sure Nikon can't unfortunately

As I was reading the details of the Z50 for the first time it did strike me that the whole concept was reminiscent of the 1 series, in that it seems to have some handicaps, and no knockout killer blows. It seems Nikon wants it in its place and only in it's place. I hope the whole thing is not deja vu ...... again !

I really wish Nikon would resurrect the 1 series and un-hobble it so that it could compete. If only Nikon had made the Z mount's FFL 17mm like the 1 series there would have been some compatibility potential across 3 formats ! Nikon just wasn't thinking !

This is DPReview's take on Nikon's APS-C strategy (Canon too).
https://m.dpreview.com/opinion/4178727265/what-the-z50-tells-us-about-nikon-s-aps-c-strategy

I have to say that if this is anywhere close to the mark, then I have grave concerns for Nikon's, and the Industry's future. It seems APS-C development will again take place at snails pace, and the potential hobbled (yet again). They will still be protecting their Full Frame market segments as the whole lot is carted off to the grave dug by billion$ of cellphones .......

So much lost opportunity ......





Chosun :gh:

Its just a well-planned sop to keep us quiet as far as crop mirrorless go, although i see its shortcomings i ordered the twin pack purely because i need to consider a CX replacement, making it work should be a fun/challange though

 

[marcsantacurz]

Yes, a sub 2kg 200-600 with f5.6 at the long end is a big ask for sure, but with some design effort I don't think impossible .....

Most of the long supertelephoto exotics (Nikon lagging) have now gone to a lightweight objective long optical train design with dense grouping at the rear of the lens.

The f5.6 objective at 600mm would be 107mm diameter (the same as a 300mm f2.8). This would have a 26.5% bigger area than the 600/f6.3 objective of 95mm, so careful attention must be paid to the optical design to minimize weight at the front end. Thin aspherical elements and very high spec ED glass (synthetic fluorite equivalent) would be required along with lightweight chassis materials.

Using CFRP, Whisker Titanium Graphite, and Magnesium Metal Matrix Composites (either Carbon Fibre or Titanium reinforcement) should get the job done. The amount of these materials used is fairly minimal, and given that Sony wants about $2K for its 200-600, I think economically viable at that market point.

Manufacturers really need to realize that light weight is where it's at and get with the program. We already have sub 2kg Third Party 150-600 supertelephoto zooms of f6.3 aperture at the long end. The last thing we need is more duplication in the market ...... we need advancement !

For comparison, here are the lens construction schematics of some current lens offerings:

Nikon 200-500 f5.6 2300grms 268mm long 19 elements /12 groups
View attachment 707369

Sony 200-600 f5-f6.3 2115grms 318mm long 24 elements /17 groups
View attachment 707370

Tamron G2 150-600 f5-f6.3 1990grms 258mm long 21 elements /13 groups
View attachment 707371

Canon 600 f4L IS III 3050grms 448mm long 17 elements /13 groups
View attachment 707372

That's a great post!

I'm pretty fed up with Nikon lagging a generation behind Sony/Canon in long tele weight. I could get a Canon 600mm f/4 IS II used for about $6k at 8.6 lb or a Nikon 600mm f/4e for maybe $10k used (if you can find one) at 8.4 lb. And the Nikon f/4G is maybe $5k used but 11.2 lb. Similar story for the 400/2.8.

Marc

 

[Chosun Juan]

Z50 design considerations ....

An interview with some managerial level insiders provides some interesting revelations that the Z50 didn't include IBIS or a Vari-angle Touchscreen due to space and form factor reasons.
"I think users at this level don’t expect to see IBIS in an enthusiast-level product, especially at this price point."
https://www.amateurphotographer.co....have-to-sacrifice-size-and-form-factor-131940

Can't say that I agree with that last statement - that seems a serious underestimation ........ :cat:

2 other important takeaways are that:
"our strategy hasn’t changed in that we’re focusing closely on mid to high end product development."
and .....
"Q/: What are Nikon’s plans for its DX-format DSLR range now the Z 50 has arrived?"
A/: Our strategy is to run both systems (DSLR & Mirrorless) alongside each other. There are advantages of each and there are still users who prefer using an optical viewfinder and having the longer battery life you get with a DSLR camera. A lot of people are moving to mirrorless for video functionality and the size of the product. Our strategy is to absolutely run both products alongside each other."

As far as any future DX Z mount lenses beyond those announced on the road map goes - it seems Nikon has learnt nothing from the previous decade of disappointing DX customers, and it seems if you still have those high expectations, you can pretty much go fly a kite ! :eek!:





Chosun :gh:

 

[nikonmike]

An interview with some managerial level insiders provides some interesting revelations that the Z50 didn't include IBIS or a Vari-angle Touchscreen due to space and form factor reasons.
"I think users at this level don’t expect to see IBIS in an enthusiast-level product, especially at this price point."
https://www.amateurphotographer.co....have-to-sacrifice-size-and-form-factor-131940

Can't say that I agree with that last statement - that seems a serious underestimation ........ :cat:

2 other important takeaways are that:
"our strategy hasn’t changed in that we’re focusing closely on mid to high end product development."
and .....
"Q/: What are Nikon’s plans for its DX-format DSLR range now the Z 50 has arrived?"
A/: Our strategy is to run both systems (DSLR & Mirrorless) alongside each other. There are advantages of each and there are still users who prefer using an optical viewfinder and having the longer battery life you get with a DSLR camera. A lot of people are moving to mirrorless for video functionality and the size of the product. Our strategy is to absolutely run both products alongside each other."

As far as any future DX Z mount lenses beyond those announced on the road map goes - it seems Nikon has learnt nothing from the previous decade of disappointing DX customers, and it seems if you still have those high expectations, you can pretty much go fly a kite ! :eek!:





Chosun :gh:

After all the years i have been a Nikon user i know to allow for there devious/childish marketing strategies, the Z 50 was designed to push most Nikon wannabes up a model or two.
The lenses launched will cover me and if not i will use Sigma, Nikons loss.

 

[Chosun Juan]

Not content with the Canon CEO's predictions of a halving of the camera market, Thom has OD'd on doom and gloom predicting an overall market drop to ~4 Million units ! :eek!:
https://www.dslrbodies.com/newsview...2019-nikon-canon/whats-the-market-bottom.html

I can't say that I would agree with this. The big manufacturers would have to be totally asleep at the wheel for that to happen. Up until now they have been solidly dozing as the ground shifts beneath their feet. The upcoming DSLR PRO flagships due in 2020 show that at least they are addressing some of these concerns - (processing, HEIF, data transfer etc) , and the Nikon Z50 is also half a toe in the water at addressing some of these things.

This is also Thom's predictions for rationalized CaNikon upcoming lineups:
https://www.dslrbodies.com/newsview...2019-nikon-canon/the-canonnikon-solution.html

I would be disappointed if the Z8 didn't make an appearance before a similarly sensored upgraded D860.

Also Thom seems to have written off any D500 /7D II successors. This is a big miss as there is a glaring need for upgraded PRO APS-C offerings (especially as Fujifilm is sitting there with a 26MP sensor). I'm not sure that CaNikon has nailed the Mirrorless AF tech necessary to debut as PRO APS-C Mirrorless 'flagships' yet, and so I think a D500S and 7D III can be parlayed out of the D6 /1DX III due next year. This would buy an essential couple of years to perfect the Mirrorless AF (by which such models will live and die)





Chosun :gh:

 

[Chosun Juan]

Yikes !!!

Nikon forecasts almost the complete ! evaporation of Non-(Hobbyist/Professional) Revenue (some ~200 Billion ¥ !) :eek!: over the Mid/Long-term (whatever that means) ........... Yikes !
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/11/07/nikons-q2-financial-results-are-out-2.aspx/





Chosun

 

[etudiant]

Nikon forecasts almost the complete ! evaporation of Non-(Hobbyist/Professional) Revenue (some ~200 Billion ¥ !) :eek!: over the Mid/Long-term (whatever that means) ........... Yikes !
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/11/07/nikons-q2-financial-results-are-out-2.aspx/

Chosun

Yikes is the right word!
Profit is evaporating even faster than the sales, off 84.7% for imaging products.

 

[njlarsen]

Well, the above made me go to the nikon camera page in DP review. in 2015 there were many different nikon coolpix models announced, but in 2017 it was one, in 2018 two, and in 2019 three (most of these are long zoom models, the type of coolpix that phone cameras have the greatest difficulty imitating). That is the consequence of the lack of revenue that I would have expected, so good to see what they have done.

Niels

 

[Chosun Juan]

(*) Pull Up ! Pull Up !! Pull Up !!!

Watching the Camera Industry's response to current and looming challenges reminds me of that excellent TV show "Air Crash Investigations".

Similar to the incidents on that show, what should be a straight forward routine exercise (I want my flights completely absent of all drama ! ) , seemingly quickly gets out of control through a series of errors and missteps resulting in terminal confusion and the inevitable crash :eek!:

*NB despite the cheeky title of this post, the majority of these air incidents could have had happier endings if the pilots had pushed down to regain airflow over the control surfaces and allowed the plane to fly out of trouble (albeit probably shedding a few panels here and there as the aircraft undergoes maximum g maneuvers to recover back to the normal operational envelope). A lot of these unfortunate incidents see the stalled aircraft plummet from the sky as the disorientated pilots 'pull up' only exacerbating the problem. This is made worse with Boeing 737 Max type software and responsibility confusion. I hope the next plane I set foot on has a pilot who knows how to 'fly the plane' !

In an analogous way the Camera Industry needs to push through the difficulties to resume 'normal' (less stressful) growing business. In order to do this it needs to give customers a reason to buy. I'm not seeing this on a wide scale. Like the confused pilots they seem to be pulling the wrong levers and making the opposite inputs to those required.

What really made me spit my muesli out over breakfast was reading the rumoured specs of the D750 replacement. Underwhelmed and not compelled.
https://www.nikonrumors.co/nikon-d780-rumored-specs-announcement-ahead-of-ces-2020/

From time to time Thom Hogan says something sensible about the market. He and I are in complete disagreement about the number of models that Nikon needs going forward (I'm at double [if done properly] his range, which is nothing more than a planned self fulfilling prophecy of doom and probable company failure).

However reading this latest article I find Thom in agreeance with me (which means that there's a good chance he's got this one right ! . The Industry needs to address the real causes of contraction - not just push the same old buttons and pull the same old levers. They need to provide products so good that customers are COMPELLED to upgrade. They need to start offering the same backroom automation options and ease of use, and processing, and connectivity, in certain models that Smartphones offer.
http://dslrbodies.com/newsviews/nikon-2019-news/december-2019-nikon-canon/fighting-all-trends.html

Nikon has made great strides in reducing the weight and form factor whilst maintaining good ergonomics and improved IQ with the new Z mount models. I'd like to see that go further with more PF and other lightweight lens options.

Basically Nikon you need to deliver - smoke and mirrors ain't gonna cut it ...... :smoke:





Chosun :gh:

 

[Chosun Juan]

Fringer EF-NZ (FR-NZ1) ....... Canon EF Lens to Nikon Z mount adapter

Well this makes things interesting ! :cat:
Any Canon EF or EF-S lens adapted to Nikon Z mount Mirrorless cameras !

https://www.fringeradapter.com/canon-ef-to-nikon-z

Sub 3 kilo 400/f2.8 and 600/f4 supertelephotos for the 'masses' :t:





Chosun :gh:

 

[Hermann]

What really made me spit my muesli out over breakfast was reading the rumoured specs of the D750 replacement. Underwhelmed and not compelled.
https://www.nikonrumors.co/nikon-d780-rumored-specs-announcement-ahead-of-ces-2020/

Latest rumour is that the D780 will have the Z6's PDAF sensor, making it suitable for video.

Hermann

 

[Chosun Juan]

Latest rumour is that the D780 will have the Z6's PDAF sensor, making it suitable for video.

Hermann

That's interesting - I hope it has the goodies to match.
Given that it doesn't have IBIS though - I'm still a bit puzzled as to why you would choose the D780 over a Z6 ..... ?? :cat: You would therefore be locked out of the Z lens system, and it doesn't seem like there will be any cost benefit at all .......
:brains:




Chosun :gh:

 

[njlarsen]

Because you are old fashioned enough that you think mirrors are better than mirrorless...

Niels