"I suspect"; "It's probably"; "I wouldn't be at all surprised"... yep, we can all make statements like that, but I would rather base my viewpoint on the thoughts of people who are actually studying a subject in a proper systematic way doing actual science with actual data sets, than people who aren't but who "suspect".
As for your I was right and everybody else was wrong story, sure, maybe. But how many thousands of "They were right and I was wrong" stories are there for every contrarian who was right? Basing an opinion on the lone voice of a person who has no grounding in a discipline seems a poor strategy compared to listening to the consensus opinion of those who do.
The whole point of the scientific process is that people who have contrarian views have a very real platform to present them, and if they can deliver the evidence then they become the accepted wisdom. As I said before, any climate scientist who can produce a convincing model and data set to demonstrate that it's volcanoes or sun-spots or farting cows that cause global warming is going to hit the jackpot.
Originally Posted by Chosun Juan
'Scientists' also collectively regularly trot out all sorts of stuff about 'Dark Matter' and 'Dark Energy' despite very few I suspect having any sort of grasp of it whatsoever. It's probably those less immersed who stand back, hitch up an eyebrow, and say - "hang on ....." , that represent our greatest hope ! I wouldn't be at all surprised if a 100 or so years from now, the whole thing is looked back upon with about as much credibility as "lumeniforous aether" !
I trust the scientific process to get it right ----- eventually, but jeez, there'll be a heck of a lot of 'silly walks' in between .....
This reminds me of an 'encounter' I had with my ex boss, who virtually implied that I was mad and was ripe for the funny farm, when I told him of an insight and position I held on some matter within our company. I will never forget his words and incredulity ..... "what! so you expect me to believe that 160 people including me are wrong, and you're the only one who's right?! That no-one else can see it, and every single one of them is wrong - and you're right?!? In hindsight my reply of "yep" only seemed to infuriate him more ........... funny thing was though, it turns out I was right, turns out I was the only one who was right, and 160 people got it completely wrong ..............