Corona virus threat to birding (3 Viewers)

Andy Adcock · Mar 13, 2020

opisska said:
What do you Andy think about the possibility that Johnson is not acting in the interests of the general public, but monetary interests of the rich? Is that really that far-fetched, especially from a Conservative (or how do you call them in the UK)? Also, isn't it a bit absurd when one country decides to act completely orthogonally to its neighbors? If this goes on and Europe contains is to some level while the UK lets it run loose, does the UK understand the consequences of being cut off from the rest of the continents possibly for years?

The scientists have adamantly backed their view very publicly and stated their reasons, I don't believe this to be financial or political.

Put the boot on the other foot, what if we control it and Europe is still grossly afflicted? Of more concern should be the US where they can't even test for it adequately.

opisska · Mar 13, 2020

andyadcock said:
The scientists have adamantly backed their view very publicly and stated their reasons, I don't believe this to be financial or political.

Put the boot on the other foot, what if we control it and Europe is still grossly afflicted?

I am just curious why are the views of the scientists so different, because in Czech Republic the scientists are all openly and strictly for maximal containment and social distancing, like it's not even a question. As (somewhat of?) a scientist myself (even if from a completely unrelated field), I would like to propose a theory that this science is highly uncertain and nobody can really predict much - honestly we have the same problem in particle physics even though we know the basic rules, some - even seemingly simple - systems are completely unpredictable from first principles.

But yep, you've got the point to some extend with the switched position. The only difference is that the side that contains can always give up, while the other one can't magically decide to contain.

etudiant · Mar 13, 2020

Not sure that this is a seasonal virus.
It seems to be a year round player, given that it has no trouble infecting people in Thailand and Singapore, which are pretty summery climes.

Andy Adcock · Mar 13, 2020

opisska said:
I am just curious why are the views of the scientists so different, because in Czech Republic the scientists are all openly and strictly for maximal containment and social distancing, like it's not even a question. As (somewhat of?) a scientist myself (even if from a completely unrelated field), I would like to propose a theory that this science is highly uncertain and nobody can really predict much - honestly we have the same problem in particle physics even though we know the basic rules, some - even seemingly simple - systems are completely unpredictable from first principles.

But yep, you've got the point to some extend with the switched position. The only difference is that the side that contains can always give up, while the other one can't magically decide to contain.

It's not the rich that will suffer most with the shutdown of schools etc which is the only policy area to differ fron Europe. Ordinary people who have to take time off for those kids, nursery workers whose jobs and businesses will be lost and personel lost to industry which could affect supply chains in all areas, it's a far more complicated picture than anyone imagined at the start.

Ultimately, if the UK plan is effective we win, if it's not, we'll end up like Italy but there will be a climax and end to it one way or another which will end with the so called 'herd immunity' being acquired whichever way we achieve it, it won't go on for years and end up with the UK being cast out.

dantheman · Mar 13, 2020

opisska said:
I am just curious why are the views of the scientists so different, because in Czech Republic the scientists are all openly and strictly for maximal containment and social distancing, like it's not even a question.

Can't quite recall which point this answers, but looking at this link again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

and the number of cases expressed as cases per million population, the UK is an order of magnitude or so lower than most of its European neighbours. It would seem that the UK was doing something right.

However, the numbers are changing, and if everyone else is shutting down and instigating mass containment, then the policy will I'm sure be continually reviewed ...

Andy Adcock · Mar 13, 2020

dantheman said:
Can't quite recall which point this answers, but looking at this link again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

and the number of cases expressed as cases per million population, the UK is an order of magnitude or so lower than most of its European neighbours. It would seem that the UK was doing something right.

However, the numbers are changing, and if everyone else is shutting down and instigating mass containment, then the policy will I'm sure be continually reviewed ...

Correct, look how quickly the US overtook us after being late to the game.

Also notable at that link is the fact that the 'closed' cases now outnumber those currently infected.

I can't understand how it rampaged through Italy so quickly?

Dave Ball · Mar 13, 2020

temmie said:
What makes you think the health care in China was on average worse?

Only because of the large numbers overwhelming resources, at least in Wuhan. Once they got past initial denial, their response has probably been better than most countries, though South Korea and Singapore have probably done best.

At the moment I don’t think the UK or USA are looking as good. At least we have done a fair amount of testing, the US not so much so far, but looking at the Italian amount of kissing and hugging going on in the winners enclosure, not cancelling Cheltenham might have been a mistake.

Good points also from Jeff on the initial lack of treatment on the Empire Princess.

opisska · Mar 13, 2020

dantheman said:
Can't quite recall which point this answers, but looking at this link again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

and the number of cases expressed as cases per million population, the UK is an order of magnitude or so lower than most of its European neighbours. It would seem that the UK was doing something right.

However, the numbers are changing, and if everyone else is shutting down and instigating mass containment, then the policy will I'm sure be continually reviewed ...

UK has about as many cases per person as the Czech Republic, which is basically freaking out now. I would say that you are just simply behind in the time-line of the spread, which seems to be consistent with being further from Italy (in the same vein Poland is much better off than the Czech Republic right now).

However these measurements have no immediate effect. Let's talk in two weeks ... The current numbers mostly reflect actions 2-3 weeks ago, which was a time when basically nobody did anything, so there is not much to compare, is it?

To get a bit on track, I would like to say that if either of the scenarios we discussed with Andy and thus a long-term quarantine between the EU and the UK would occur, I'd be pretty bummed birding-wise. The UK is consistently a great birding destination for us WP listers! I was kinda thinking of stopping by for a longer weekend this March, but that has been out of the question for a while now, as I basically expected exactly this kind of border lockout.

dantheman · Mar 13, 2020

andyadcock said:
Correct, look how quickly the US overtook us after being late to the game.

I can't understand how it rampaged through Italy so quickly?

They didn't realise it was there until too late? (Testing)

dantheman · Mar 13, 2020

opisska said:
UK has about as many cases per person as the Czech Republic, which is basically freaking out now. I would say that you are just simply behind in the time-line of the spread, which seems to be consistent with being further from Italy (in the same vein Poland is much better off than the Czech Republic right now).

However these measurements have no immediate effect. Let's talk in two weeks ... The current numbers mostly reflect actions 2-3 weeks ago, which was a time when basically nobody did anything, so there is not much to compare, is it?

Agree. And the UK is maybe starting to freak a bit too. A week ago I was thinking we were a week behind France, and 2-3 behind Italy.

Can natural social distancing work - that is the question? A lot of businesses are going towards working from home, events cancelled, sports cancelled etc not on official advice.

Dave Ball · Mar 13, 2020

andyadcock said:
Correct, look how quickly the US overtook us after being late to the game.

Undetected cases due to lack of testing.

I can't understand how it rampaged through Italy so quickly?

They never identified their ‘case 0’, allowing undetected initial spread. In comparison initial tracking and quarantine was very good in the UK.

dantheman · Mar 13, 2020

Can't recall where i saw it now, but the governor of Ohio, USA held a press conference where they said there could be 100.000 cases in the state by now. But they couldn't be sure because they weren't able to do the testing.

(Probably twitter, hopefully not fake news!)

etudiant · Mar 13, 2020

If the system is so fragile that a single undetected carrier can break it, it is obviously futile.
Meanwhile, well meaning but pointless government shutdown edicts are rendering large parts of the population idle and destitute.
This cure seems worse than the disease. It may be that just getting people to take social care would be much less damaging yet equally or more effective.

viator · Mar 13, 2020

etudiant said:
Not sure that this is a seasonal virus.
It seems to be a year round player, given that it has no trouble infecting people in Thailand and Singapore, which are pretty summery climes.

It's not - it's summer in Australia (and been a hot one at that even if coming to a close). Regular flu in most countries is driven by humidity more than temperature and this Australian summer has not been humid!

BTW regular flu isn't seasonal in the tropics either at least in the sense of winter/summer since they don't exist. Flu here just seems to come in waves at any time - maybe driven by travellers or simply the fact it's always humid?

Andy Adcock · Mar 13, 2020

Dave Ball said:
Undetected cases due to lack of testing.

They never identified their ‘case 0’, allowing undetected initial spread. In comparison initial tracking and quarantine was very good in the UK.

This is a very good point and possibly the reason that our strategy will prove effective?

opisska · Mar 13, 2020

etudiant said:
If the system is so fragile that a single undetected carrier can break it, it is obviously futile.
Meanwhile, well meaning but pointless government shutdown edicts are rendering large parts of the population idle and destitute.
This cure seems worse than the disease. It may be that just getting people to take social care would be much less damaging yet equally or more effective.

The problem is that we don't have enough hospital beds. In Italy it run for a short time and to only 10 thousand cases, which is a minute fraction of the huge populated areas affected where millions of people live and that has ALREADY caused hospital system overload and doctors having to let people die from lack of instruments.

dantheman · Mar 13, 2020

etudiant said:
If the system is so fragile that a single undetected carrier can break it, it is obviously futile.
Meanwhile, well meaning but pointless government shutdown edicts are rendering large parts of the population idle and destitute.
This cure seems worse than the disease. It may be that just getting people to take social care would be much less damaging yet equally or more effective.

The point with Italy was that they weren't trying. Most other countries are a lot more aware now.

There is definitely some sense to your second point. The hardships caused by mass lockdown over months, compared to getting the virus and maybe everyone will get it at some point anyway.

There was talk of developing a vaccine in a few months time, but assume that isn't happening (normally a year plus?)

DMW · Mar 13, 2020

I'm seeing comments about herd immunity, but is this actually likely with this virus? My understanding is that flu viruses (to which I believe Corona is related) mutate frequently, which is why new vaccines have to be developed every year. I've also read of individuals (notably doctors treating infected patients) being infected with Corona multiple times.

In the absence of a vaccine, surely herd immunity only works with diseases where exposure to the pathogen and consequent production of antibodies provides a level of long-term immunity?

3Italianbirders · Mar 13, 2020

etudiant said:
If the system is so fragile that a single undetected carrier can break it, it is obviously futile.
Meanwhile, well meaning but pointless government shutdown edicts are rendering large parts of the population idle and destitute.
This cure seems worse than the disease. It may be that just getting people to take social care would be much less damaging yet equally or more effective.

I disagree. Studies are being carried out as to why the virus spread so quickly in the first couple of days before lockdown in the affected areas. But one of the reasons may be that the contagion happened in an hospital, thus people there were presumably more vulnerable. The Italian Health Service is consistently rated among the best in the world, at least north of Rome.

And the shutdowns are not pointless, at least according to every health professional I have listened to, and also according to the WHO. That's the reason why China now has only a handful of new cases each day. Getting people to take social care is not very easy in a country of almost 60 million. The lockdown has really been effective in convincing people that this is serious and accordingly must be taken seriously. Yes, it will damage the economy, but lives will be saved.

See this article

opisska · Mar 13, 2020

Polish border closed. Don't come.

Corona virus threat to birding (3 Viewers)

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