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Old Sunday 29th September 2019, 02:16   #724
fugl
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 15,432
Quote:
Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
My pay grade does not extend to trying to impose my views on others in matters of their national policies.
On AGW, it does not require huge technical expertise to understand that in science as in other matters, 'who pays my bread, his song I sing'. Eisenhower warned against this in his farewell address, to little benefit unfortunately. So science sings the song of its sponsor, the Federal Bureaucracy.
As is, I do not believe there is anything unusual to climate except the real impacts from the human misuse of the earth's surface. I think there is no doubt that this results in desertification and destruction of much of the biosphere that we depend on.
By contrast, I see sea level rise as a chimera, as evidenced by the lack of rise in places such as San Diego or Tarawa over the past 100 or 80 years. If one looks at a global sea level rise map, most of the increase is focused on places with the worst instrumentation, such as the Philipines, but it varies all over.
In the 1840s, a British Admiralty expedition carved a mean high sea level mark on an island off Tasmania, called the Isle of the Dead. That mark is still very much visible and actually above where the sea level now stands.
The island is not volcanic and has not been glaciated, so no isostatic rebound or similar explanations will be persuasive. Facts such as this are very compelling to me, enough so that it will take a lot more than an AAAS dictum to persuade me otherwise.
I also remember an interview with Mr Mann back in the 1990s where he forecast that the East River Drive, in my home town, NYC, would be under water by 2020. It was briefly, during Hurricane Sandy, but the drive is not different today from then. In retrospect, these were clearly alarmist projections. They left me deeply skeptical of anything that relates to the AGW narrative, especially the catastrophic variety.
Eisenhower warned against the “military-industrial” complex, not the “deep state” (i.e., the “federal bureaucracy”). Today, the military worries about the effects of AGW on its bases and other installations; “Industry” divides along predictable lines, fossil fuel adamantly “against”, alternative energy “for”; and the “federal bureaucracy”, in spite of your assertions to the contrary, doesn’t have a dog in this hunt and just follows the evidence.

It’s not a case of telling other countries what to do but of entering into binding international agreements for the common good. Or, maybe, you think of the modern nation state as a fundamental unit of polity, inviolable and eternal, incapable of further development? I don’t and would be very surprised if it survives the century in anything like its present form.

Sea levels, ice melting and the rest. The following summary should put your doubts to rest about the reality of accelerating sea level rises in recent years (though I’d be amazed if it did ).

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Our political opinions and our views on what constitutes convincing evidence are so divergent that I think further discussion would be a waste of time. You’re more than welcome to the last word if you want it.
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". . .Let them be left, O let them be left, wildness and wet;
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Last edited by fugl : Sunday 29th September 2019 at 19:48.
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