DMW
Well-known member
Sorry to hear that. We just lost the last part of our trip, so got off relatively lightly.
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Corona virus threat to birding (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter etudiant
- Start date
Sorry to hear that. We just lost the last part of our trip, so got off relatively lightly.
Andy Adcock
Worst person on Birdforum
I often ponder the thinking behind the idea that not washing ones hands after having a pee is terribly unhygienic whilst at the same time, we enthusiatically fasten our faces to each others genitalia at every opportunity, surely has to be deadly!
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rollingthunder
Well-known member
Thanks Steve for clarifying the Eilat situation and your scuppered plans:C
I have committed no funds whatsoever as i intended booking at the last minute, flying to TLV, then a coach down South perhaps booking the first 2 nights billet and taking it from there. I really don’t have much to moan about.....so i wont.
The whole situation is now out of our hands, washed or not, i will ‘Staycate’ until Batumi. Somebody with my small group of friends, tenuous social life and solitary birding means it is not a problem to self-isolate
Good birding -
Laurie:t:
I have committed no funds whatsoever as i intended booking at the last minute, flying to TLV, then a coach down South perhaps booking the first 2 nights billet and taking it from there. I really don’t have much to moan about.....so i wont.
The whole situation is now out of our hands, washed or not, i will ‘Staycate’ until Batumi. Somebody with my small group of friends, tenuous social life and solitary birding means it is not a problem to self-isolate
Good birding -
Laurie:t:
rollingthunder
Well-known member
Andy - i have just seen your previous post above mine - seek help:eek!:
Laurie
Laurie
opisska
rabid twitcher
I am now having trouble removing the image of a shoebill giving cunnilingus from my mind and the time to sleep is coming up. Thanks
PYRTLE
Old Berkshire Boy
I'm surprised that Birdfair 2020 hasn't yet cancelled. I appreciate it is nearly 5 months away but given the probable liklihood of the UK being severely affected for who knows how long, when will the organisers call it?
No update on their website, though obviously the situation is changing rapidly.
No update on their website, though obviously the situation is changing rapidly.
Steve Lister
Senior Birder, ex County Recorder, Garden Moths.
I know they are giving it a lot of thought - briefly talked with the manager last night while watching gulls. Difficult situation, but I can't see that things will be over in August.
LRWT, joint organisers of the Birdfair, have already cancelled a recorders' conference as a precaution.
Steve
Andy Adcock
Worst person on Birdforum
Mine was not intended as a schoolboy comment but a genuine observation on what seems a complete contradiction in attitudes toward matters of personal hygiene.
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Paul Chapman
Well-known member
In light of the UK predictions of peak in 8-12 weeks, worst case scenario of 80% infection rate & 1% fatality rate together with how that fatality rate is made up from a demographic perspective, I suspect the disruption is a minimum 4+ months and Birdfair would be in danger. I do need to sit through the briefing again really. The sobering thought is comparing the infection predictions with the fatality demographics.
Keep safe all.
Keep safe all.
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Andy Adcock
Worst person on Birdforum
As the parent of a toddler, I find some solace in this, if not from a personal perspective!
Also to be understood is that even the elderly that succumb, most are poorly with other issues which have already weakened them and most healthy 70 year olds should be ok, even if they contract the virus.
Italy has an astonishingly high death rate?
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Paul Chapman
Well-known member
Difficult to assess fatality rates with differential testing rates. I sat through a rather statistics heavy webinar at lunchtime that I will probably revisit.
All the best
Andy Adcock
Worst person on Birdforum
15000 positive tests with 1000 deaths, c7%?
Paul Chapman
Well-known member
There was a question on the point at the Government briefing. I cannot remember precisely the response so I wouldn't attempt to repeat it until I have listened to it again.
Edit - just recapped. The Webinar I watched earlier gave 5% for Italy with the suggestion that the age of the population was a significant factor. Contrast 4/4.5% Hubei Province & 0.7% South Korea with the suggestion that South Korea mass tested to establish a far higher proportion of positive cases that would otherwise have been missed.
All the best
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The most quantified stats are probably those for the Diamond Princess cruise liner in Japan.
This page of Japanese stats quotes 3,618 tested, 696 positive, 410 no symptoms on March 6th and 4,061 tested, 705 positive, 392 no symptoms on March 2nd (so slight discrepancy there probably due to some cases having been moved away and problems reconciling cases).
It states that the 696 positives include 552 passengers, with the remaining 144 being crew.
This site lists all cases worldwide. It agrees with 696 total cases and gives total deaths as 7 on the Diamond Princess with a further 32 serious or critical, and 325 recovered (so less than the 410 ‘no symptoms‘ on the other page).
The deaths and ‘serious or critical’ figures have not changed for several days, before which there had been one extra death and a few less ‘serious or critical’, while the ‘recovered’ had increased by 70. Unfortunately historical figures don’t seem to be available on this site to track trends, but even if all the ‘serious or critical’ cases end in deaths, which seems highly unlikely, that gives a death rate of only 5.6%. It seems likely that the final figure will be much nearer 1%, and as the bulk of the 552 passengers are likely to have been elderly and many with underlying health issues, this gives a much better picture than some of the higher percentages that have been quoted for older age groups. Presumably these higher figures are due to only more serious cases being detected ‘in the wild’, though of course, as early cases, the cruise liner passengers will have received better care on average than has happened in China or Italy. However, the low death rates in South Korea, which has tested far more thoroughly, do tend to agree.
This page of Japanese stats quotes 3,618 tested, 696 positive, 410 no symptoms on March 6th and 4,061 tested, 705 positive, 392 no symptoms on March 2nd (so slight discrepancy there probably due to some cases having been moved away and problems reconciling cases).
It states that the 696 positives include 552 passengers, with the remaining 144 being crew.
This site lists all cases worldwide. It agrees with 696 total cases and gives total deaths as 7 on the Diamond Princess with a further 32 serious or critical, and 325 recovered (so less than the 410 ‘no symptoms‘ on the other page).
The deaths and ‘serious or critical’ figures have not changed for several days, before which there had been one extra death and a few less ‘serious or critical’, while the ‘recovered’ had increased by 70. Unfortunately historical figures don’t seem to be available on this site to track trends, but even if all the ‘serious or critical’ cases end in deaths, which seems highly unlikely, that gives a death rate of only 5.6%. It seems likely that the final figure will be much nearer 1%, and as the bulk of the 552 passengers are likely to have been elderly and many with underlying health issues, this gives a much better picture than some of the higher percentages that have been quoted for older age groups. Presumably these higher figures are due to only more serious cases being detected ‘in the wild’, though of course, as early cases, the cruise liner passengers will have received better care on average than has happened in China or Italy. However, the low death rates in South Korea, which has tested far more thoroughly, do tend to agree.
Jeff Hopkins
Just another...observer
The other things about the cruise ship is that there was no treatment for a significant period, only isolation. So that allowed for an extended incubation period.
Additionally, because of the closed nature of the cruise ship, there were likely multiple repeated infections, so the rate of transmission is probably higher too.
Paul Chapman
Well-known member
Cheers both & Dave many thanks in particular for your link.
temmie
Well-known member
What makes you think the health care in China was on average worse?
I actually think China got a grip on the whole situation thanks to its ability to establish a lot of the necessary infrastructure, while Italy was flooded with patients in hospitals without the necessary intensive care equipment to treat all in the best way.
A good read with a lot of interesting numbers, graphs and the interpretation behind death rates and what is to come:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coro...dZ5rDr8bZeyNYey7wvKzt9r7FmKI6H0XQCoOvK6bUzvD0
opisska
rabid twitcher
The question of undetected cases is interesting and highly contentious. There is this study from China that days that 97 percent of positive patients shows symptoms eventually, yet there is this super low death rate in the super-testing Korea and these are pretty hard to reconcile. I have seen multiple statements from Korea of "we detect it early so we can treat it early and it's not so deadly" but how does that work since there isn't really a cure? Do thy deploy antivirals widely? This is simply not easy to find out right now. For me the moral is that no single source paints a complete picture - as is rayyher expected for research pertaining to a new phenomenon.
