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Corona virus threat to birding (1 Viewer)

But the hope has to be that we are better armed to deal with it (despite being a unqualified sceptic on most things). Now to pop out. Birds await. I may find a quiet spot to watch some House Sparrows.

All the best

My understanding is that it's not a question of buying time to be better armed to deal with it (although this is obviously to be hoped), but to prevent a single large spike in the number of people that overwhelms critical care services. By imposing and then relaxing controls in cycles, the idea is to spread the incidence of infections over a long period at a level that can be dealt with.
 
My understanding is that the research group has zero expectation of keeping the current measures in place continuously for a full year, but rather lower the infection/new case rate to a certain threshhold, relax restrictions, and potentially add them back in should rates go beyond those levels.

I guess the question is what actual measures will be relaxed. Will travel bans still be in effect even is restaurants reopen?

I can't understand why it wouldn't come back as soon as the restrictions are relaxed? It's still going to be hiding somewhere in the world.
Absolutely it will.
I have heard it described as an ongoing 'Rollercoaster' for the next year or more, rather than a once off flattening of the curve. This seems to be current government strategy. ie. the same lax restrictions that allowed this to spread will be in place once the infected numbers ramp up again, and then the global economic and lifestyle clamps will come down again - and on and on on this Rollercoaster we will go .....

We now have the over the top situation of Bondi beach being closed because it had more than 500 people on it during some lovely sunny weather the other day. Elsewhere (indoors!) the 4sqm per person advice is in place. I also saw an official social media announcement from Ducati asking people not to ride their bikes. Abject madness.

The OP was concerned with travel for one, and the travel, tourism and hospitality industries have (and will take further) massive hits. Banks though will be happy to have you further indebted, and/or take your assets. Governments are likewise happy to further enslave the masses with their 'relief' and 'stimulus' packages.

How quickly the world has rolled over ........ :-C




Chosun :gh:
 
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My understanding is that it's not a question of buying time to be better armed to deal with it (although this is obviously to be hoped), but to prevent a single large spike in the number of people that overwhelms critical care services. By imposing and then relaxing controls in cycles, the idea is to spread the incidence of infections over a long period at a level that can be dealt with.

Yep...and potentially if you can drop the infection rate low enough, you can do a better job of tracking down sources and isolating them. I believe that is what South Korea has been doing. Granted, I don't think either the US or UK is currently doing nearly as good a job as that country, and I think things are going to be getting a lot worse before they get better.
 
But the hope has to be that we are better armed to deal with it (despite being a unqualified sceptic on most things). Now to pop out. Birds await. I may find a quiet spot to watch some House Sparrows.

I was deliberately imprecise. For me, 'better armed' to deal with it encompassed many things:-
(i) more understanding and treatment approaches as well as more ventilators;
(ii) more testing capability so the ability to isolate more quickly and accurately; &
(iii) tackling it at a time with less additional capacity demands.

The vaccine 'magic bullet' seems a long way off.

Our usual weekend local café is doing takeaways and we always sat outside in any event so good to catch up with two friends. Two other self-isolating over seventies friends were only available with moth news over WhatsApp. I did visit a couple of House Sparrow colonies but the highlight was a first-summer Red Kite (pale greater covert tips and sub-terminal tail band) which was a patch year tick. Picked up from the car and then intercepted closer further along the road.

After 15 hours working at home on the computer on Wednesday with 237 steps, I am intending to walk to work next week - a circular route to and from my house. A couple of friends have done the same cycling to work this week.

Keep safe & as cheerful as possible

Paul
 

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I can't understand why it wouldn't come back as soon as the restrictions are relaxed? It's still going to be hiding somewhere in the world.

The virus will die out once all the carriers are isolated until they recover or die. That's what happened with the first SARS and apparently what seems to have happened in China.

The roller coaster occurs if the restrictions are lifted before the virus is extinguished.

However, if the Chinese continue with the exotic meat markets, it or another similar virus is likely to arise again, just like ebola.
 
My understanding is that we are long long long past the point where we can quarantine and extinguish the virus. The current measures are more to keep the infections rates at a level that hospitals can keep up with them.
 
My understanding is that we are long long long past the point where we can quarantine and extinguish the virus. The current measures are more to keep the infections rates at a level that hospitals can keep up with them.

This is a very common misconception, fueled by the short-sighted lack of commitment of many governments to extensive contact tracing and testing efforts - short-sighted because any other solution will be more expensive in the long run. The idea of hospitals keeping up simply doesn't work mathematically even in the most prepared countries.

This realization has been circulating for a long time, but there is now a really coherent text about it - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

The takeway is that the later you start realizing that just "flattening the curve" doesn't really do enough, the more expensive it will be.
 
My understanding is that we are long long long past the point where we can quarantine and extinguish the virus. The current measures are more to keep the infections rates at a level that hospitals can keep up with them.

The current measures are definitely for the purpose you state.

Whether the virus will extinguish after rampaging through the population is still uncertain. It depends on whether people are still infectious after recovering from the virus or not. We don't know that for certain yet, but based on China, they may not be.
 
This realization has been circulating for a long time, but there is now a really coherent text about it - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Who is this Tomas Pueyo, and why should we be listening to internet rubbish? Just a couple of egregious errors: the projected hospitalization and death rates are exaggerated by orders of magnitude because they're based only on cases that have tested positive, and testing has been hugely inadequate. And there is absolutely NO evidence that the mutations observed so far in C19 are sufficient to interfere with immune response, or any reason to believe that C19 will in the long term behave more like a flu virus than other coronaviruses like SARS, in fact the natural assumption would be quite the reverse. Or that new mutations will be more or equally deadly; the general tendency is the reverse. Fearmongering seems to be working very well for him.
 
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Who is this Tomas Pueyo, and why should we be listening to internet rubbish? Just a couple of egregious errors: the projected hospitalization and death rates are exaggerated by orders of magnitude because they're based only on cases that have tested positive, and testing has been hugely inadequate. And there is absolutely NO evidence that the mutations observed so far in C19 are sufficient to interfere with immune response, or any reason to believe that C19 will in the long term behave more like a flu virus than other coronaviruses like SARS, in fact the natural assumption would be quite the reverse. Or that new mutations will be more or equally deadly; the general tendency is the reverse. Fearmongering seems to be working very well for him.

You obviously don't like it then? ;)

Is there anything correct, interesting or relevant in there in your opinion, or would it be safe to say that it is all rubbish.
 
On topic, saw a nice flock of Fieldfare earlier today whilst closing up some hides for the foreseeable future.


.
 
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It took a long time to read the article and even longer the comments.

It compares figures, percentages and examples across continents but there seems to not be a constant between these countries. There are some interesting points though and some validity in the overall picture.

It is clear that the health services, collectively, are not in a position to deal with the virus in its current form and rate of acceleration. So at what point do you become selective? The risk of racism, ageism, elitism, corruption and lots of other ism’s is huge. If you have a 90 year old on a ventilator and a 20 year old needs it who decides who dies?

I know my granny would have given up her bed....
 
So at what point do you become selective? The risk of racism, ageism, elitism, corruption and lots of other ism’s is huge. If you have a 90 year old on a ventilator and a 20 year old needs it who decides who dies?

I know my granny would have given up her bed....

Listening to an A&E consultant on the radio a few days ago the point at which you become selective is when you have too few ventilators or sufficient trained staff and too many critical patients. That point is rapidly approaching in the UK. He was distraught at the idea that at some point he was going to be forced, against all of his professional instincts & training, to make that decision. You're right to be concerned about potential risk of corruption or prejudice. Ethically, it must be done on the basis of the likelihood of survival, more brutally on potential lifespan remaining and whether there are any young dependants. At approaching 70 I've already told my daughters that if such a cruel eventuality happens then the priority should be to give someone with c50 years to live than me with c15. That way I'll relieve any harrassed doctor of responsibility and hopefully mitigate my children's anger.

It's cruel scenarios such as this that behoves we birders to pursue our hobby in ways that will not risk spreading this contagion. Yet only yesterday I saw photos of groups of birders unnecessarily crowded together. I much prefer sociable birding but it's going to have to be solo birding for the foreseeable future & using mobiles to chat & exchange news if I see friends in the field (my increasing deafness means when standing well apart I struggle to follow conversations).
 
It took a long time to read the article and even longer the comments.

It compares figures, percentages and examples across continents but there seems to not be a constant between these countries. There are some interesting points though and some validity in the overall picture.

It is clear that the health services, collectively, are not in a position to deal with the virus in its current form and rate of acceleration. So at what point do you become selective? The risk of racism, ageism, elitism, corruption and lots of other ism’s is huge. If you have a 90 year old on a ventilator and a 20 year old needs it who decides who dies?

I know my granny would have given up her bed....

I have said previously that the World cannot just stop, indefinitely. There may have to come a time when politicians have to make the brutal choice of restarting the World economy and coming to terms with 'acceptable losses'?
 
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I have said previously that the World cannot just stop, indefinitely. There may have to come a time when politicians have to make the brutal choice of restarting the World economy and coming to terms with 'acceptable losses'?

Putting the economy into stasis will clearly increase poverty and we know that more poverty will mean an increase in death rates and shortening life expectancy. The hard part is knowing how to balance visible, countable deaths now against theoretical unknowable ones in the future. I don't pretend to know the answers only that we as birders need to reflect on how we pursue our hobby and in what circumstances, if any, it's now responsible to broadcast news of rare birds.
 
I think we in the UK will be locked down next week

But nobody knows what that means. It has meant different things in different countries at different times.

As a word, it has no precise definition and all of the financial measures are designed to keep a continuity of commercial activities by getting businesses to survive.

I am informed by a friend employed by a company with an Italian component that commercial activity in Italy is being put on hold next week save for defined exceptions in heightened measures.

All the best
 
But nobody knows what that means. It has meant different things in different countries at different times.

As a word, it has no precise definition and all of the financial measures are designed to keep a continuity of commercial activities by getting businesses to survive.

I am informed by a friend employed by a company with an Italian component that commercial activity in Italy is being put on hold next week save for defined exceptions in heightened measures.

All the best

In Italy 'Under the new rules announced late on Saturday, sport and physical activity outside, even individually, is banned. Using vending machines is forbidden.'

The blasé attitude of some young people is aggravating, whilst they themselves may well skate through an infection, should they pass it on to a parent or grandparent, it could well kill them and for what, a night on the piss!

Foolishness

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

We'll all end up locked in, eating each other, Boris could feed two or three for a week I think
 
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