Join for FREE
It only takes a minute!
More discoveries. NEW: Zeiss Victory SF 32

Welcome to BirdForum.
BirdForum is the net's largest birding community, dedicated to wild birds and birding, and is absolutely FREE! You are most welcome to register for an account, which allows you to take part in lively discussions in the forum, post your pictures in the gallery and more.

How is the COVID virus affecting you?

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 3 votes, 3.67 average.
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 07:10   #151
Troubador
Moderator
 
Troubador's Avatar

 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 10,048
Quote:
Originally Posted by tenex View Post
My, you get so easily into this state that you must really enjoy it. Others are less likely to.

It's good news when people are infected without severe complications. Surely you're aware that the virus is expected to spread to the majority of the population; by declaring it awful that these individuals should have it, do you mean you had others in mind? (Are you really thinking at all?) By what supernatural means are you convinced that herd immunity can't be the solution? Where do you get the idea that "coronavirus antibodies have potentially a very short shelf life"? It seems to be estimated somewhere between 2 years for MERS and 10 for SARS, which would suffice. Most importantly, infection rates aren't the problem; hospitalization is. The two aren't in a fixed ratio, and one without the other is in the long run a good thing. The variability must lie in how some people's immune systems get overwhelmed sending them to the hospital when the vast majority simply cope with mild or no symptoms, which is likely due to the magnitude of the initial viral exposure (or to immunodeficiency) as with many other viruses. Even the much-discussed elderly can have only a mild case.

Predictions about the outcome for any individual, based on what happens on-average for others, wouldn't have foreseen that in the UK we have had a 21 and 37 year-old die from the virus without any underlying medical problem.

I don't believe this virus is going to go away. It seems more likely that it will follow something like the pattern of influenza with outbreaks in the colder months, but that is just my speculation. My point is that 'normal' in the future is unlikely to look like 'normal' in the past and will be 'normal+Covid-19'.

Seen from this perspective, anyone who is infected now and survives is likely to be in a better position to deal with a future infection, so this could indeed be good news for them. But note the words 'likely' and 'could', used here because maybe Coronavirus will mutate in the same way as influenza and present a different challenge each year.

Seen from my perspective being diabetic and having a lung disease, infection poses a very serious threat and wouldn't be good news at all.

Lee
__________________
"You are never alone, with a sheep"
Troubador is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 07:14   #152
Chosun Juan
Given to Fly
 
Chosun Juan's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Central West NSW, Australia
Posts: 7,245
Unhappy

Quote:
Originally Posted by tenex View Post
..... I don't really expect coherent responses ...
Unfortunately for the majority of the forum, the one bloke eminently proficient in statistical analysis (and also adept at placing it in a coherent logical and psychological framework) has lost interest in participating in the forum due to various actions (some brought about by the usual suspects and their behaviour).

What we're left with is what we have seen widely on display lately - magnified as it is by uncertainty and fear ....





Chosun
Chosun Juan is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2016 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 07:39   #153
Chosun Juan
Given to Fly
 
Chosun Juan's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Central West NSW, Australia
Posts: 7,245
Arrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Troubador View Post
..... with outbreaks in the colder months, but that is just my speculation. ....
Lee, I was looking at the latest country data this morning, since despite our absolutely woeful virus spread prevention strategies and testing protocols, we are exhibiting a death rate many many times lower than some countries (notably Italy, Spain, etc). Our case rate has been taking off exponentially (though nobody it seems can outdo the US in that regard since they have lit the afterburners and gone vertical) and seems to have thankfully disconnected from the death rate - even considering time delay factors.

Our government though has proved far more proficient at destroying economic activity and the wealth of the ordinary citizen (on the global SF Index we are currently sitting at 4750 and heading north ! in-line with our plummeting dollar ! )

Even filtering for Italy's older demographics and intergenerational social proclivity, it occurred to me that all the higher death rate countries are Northern Hemisphere based and thus just emerging from winter.

I had read previously somewhere that the virus thrives at 8.8°C - where or how such a precise figure was derived I have no idea. Sunshine, fresh air, and warmth (the treatment protocol for many in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic where medicines were in short supply) are likely though, to do no harm at all !





Chosun
Chosun Juan is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2016 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 08:21   #154
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,507
Quote:
Originally Posted by Troubador View Post
Yesterday I cut Troubadoris's hair and she cut mine, but this is something we have done all our married lives (48 years last December).

Lee
Congratulations - on the longevity of your marriage and your joint barbering skills!

John
Farnboro John is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 09:50   #155
ClarkWGriswold
Carpe Carpum
BF Supporter 2020
 
ClarkWGriswold's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Caerbannog
Posts: 9,798
Blog Entries: 3
I’ve been re-reading old vacation reports. Really hoping to still get to the Outer Hebs next year. So OriginalPaulE’s, 3ItallianBirders’ etc. etc. All good stuff. Just need to find some good ones about Cornwall now.

Rich
__________________
"It's a million-to-one-chance, but it might just work" - Fred Colon, Carrot Ironfoundersson, Nobby Nobbs
ClarkWGriswold is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 09:51   #156
ClarkWGriswold
Carpe Carpum
BF Supporter 2020
 
ClarkWGriswold's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Caerbannog
Posts: 9,798
Blog Entries: 3
And there’s no way I’d let my OH anywhere near me with a scissors.
__________________
"It's a million-to-one-chance, but it might just work" - Fred Colon, Carrot Ironfoundersson, Nobby Nobbs
ClarkWGriswold is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 10:26   #157
Deb Burhinus
Registered User

 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 634
Quote:
Originally Posted by Troubador View Post
Predictions about the outcome for any individual, based on what happens on-average for others, wouldn't have foreseen that in the UK we have had a 21 and 37 year-old die from the virus without any underlying medical problem.

I don't believe this virus is going to go away. It seems more likely that it will follow something like the pattern of influenza with outbreaks in the colder months, but that is just my speculation. My point is that 'normal' in the future is unlikely to look like 'normal' in the past and will be 'normal+Covid-19'.

Seen from this perspective, anyone who is infected now and survives is likely to be in a better position to deal with a future infection, so this could indeed be good news for them. But note the words 'likely' and 'could', used here because maybe Coronavirus will mutate in the same way as influenza and present a different challenge each year.

Seen from my perspective being diabetic and having a lung disease, infection poses a very serious threat and wouldn't be good news at all.

Lee
Thanks Lee

Indeed, there is increasing evidence covid is hospitalising a significant percentage of those contracting the virus under the age of 50 who have no underlying illnesses. It doesn’t take a mathematical wizard to see how quickly NHS services would collapse if we were to have a policy of ‘allowing’ the spread of covic unchecked, in order that people can develop natural immunity - (eg. 18% of those hospitalised in Spain are under the age of 50) so isolating just the elderly, would not dramatically ease the burden of the health services as people in other categories are still clearly at risk of being hospitalised.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...e-severe-cases

I agree, its very possible that this might not just go away which brings us to the problem of how immune will people be and how long that immunity will last. There is no evidence as to whether the antibodies to covid19 will bring lasting immunity, or protect everyone who has had it mildly, from a more serious reinfection which would need to be the case for an effective ‘herd immunity’ Nor, indeed whether as you rightly say, if and how much seasonal mutatation is thrown into the mix.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...=1585391672993

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20M124

There’s still just too many unknowns out there.

Trying for a ‘Herd immunity’ approach comes with great risk not just for a percentage of younger people then or just the elderly but not such ‘good news’ either for the 15,000,000 people in the UK with chronic health conditions and consequently the ability of our health services to cope (creating further risk of additional fatalities for whatever reason)

good points raised her - it could take years for herd immunity to ‘work’

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/a...normal/608752/

meanwhile

15,000,000 people at higher risk of dying from complications arising from co-morbidity

and 8,769,122 elderly

http://www.agediscrimination.info/current-uk-population

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/project...ulti-morbidity

Clearly a significant proportion of the population for whom getting the virus is definitely not ‘good news’ and for whom a new vaccine (possibly annually) would hopefully protect them from having to find out.

I really wouldn’t want to wish this on anyone, there’s too many unknowns and hope anyone at this time diagnosed makes a speedy recovery and their families are staying safe, including our PM and Carrie
__________________
___________________________
ORNITHOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF THE MIDDLE EAST
THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
http://www.osme.org

Last edited by Deb Burhinus : Saturday 28th March 2020 at 10:46.
Deb Burhinus is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 10:27   #158
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 17,869
We have two friends in France who have both been diagnosed with the virus but have subsequently recovered.
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 10:46   #159
Deb Burhinus
Registered User

 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 634
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
We have two friends in France who have both been diagnosed with the virus but have subsequently recovered.
now that’s good news
__________________
___________________________
ORNITHOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF THE MIDDLE EAST
THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
http://www.osme.org
Deb Burhinus is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 10:57   #160
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 17,869
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkWGriswold View Post
I’ve been re-reading old vacation reports. Really hoping to still get to the Outer Hebs next year. So OriginalPaulE’s, 3ItallianBirders’ etc. etc. All good stuff. Just need to find some good ones about Cornwall now.

Rich
Must be the times we're living because I read 'vaccination'..........
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 12:45   #161
Troubador
Moderator
 
Troubador's Avatar

 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 10,048
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
Congratulations - on the longevity of your marriage and your joint barbering skills!

John
Thanks John although I suspected your response might have been 'congratulations on your marriage surviving 48 years despite your mutual hairdressing'

Lee
__________________
"You are never alone, with a sheep"
Troubador is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 12:46   #162
Troubador
Moderator
 
Troubador's Avatar

 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 10,048
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkWGriswold View Post
And there’s no way I’d let my OH anywhere near me with a scissors.
Providing its just your hair she wants to cut off, what is your problem?
Oh.
Its not just your hair


Lee
__________________
"You are never alone, with a sheep"
Troubador is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 12:48   #163
Troubador
Moderator
 
Troubador's Avatar

 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 10,048
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
Lee, I was looking at the latest country data this morning, since despite our absolutely woeful virus spread prevention strategies and testing protocols, we are exhibiting a death rate many many times lower than some countries (notably Italy, Spain, etc). Our case rate has been taking off exponentially (though nobody it seems can outdo the US in that regard since they have lit the afterburners and gone vertical) and seems to have thankfully disconnected from the death rate - even considering time delay factors.

Our government though has proved far more proficient at destroying economic activity and the wealth of the ordinary citizen (on the global SF Index we are currently sitting at 4750 and heading north ! in-line with our plummeting dollar ! )

Even filtering for Italy's older demographics and intergenerational social proclivity, it occurred to me that all the higher death rate countries are Northern Hemisphere based and thus just emerging from winter.

I had read previously somewhere that the virus thrives at 8.8°C - where or how such a precise figure was derived I have no idea. Sunshine, fresh air, and warmth (the treatment protocol for many in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic where medicines were in short supply) are likely though, to do no harm at all !

Chosun
Thanks for this CJ.

Lee
__________________
"You are never alone, with a sheep"
Troubador is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 13:24   #164
ClarkWGriswold
Carpe Carpum
BF Supporter 2020
 
ClarkWGriswold's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Caerbannog
Posts: 9,798
Blog Entries: 3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Troubador View Post
Providing its just your hair she wants to cut off, what is your problem?
Oh.
Its not just your hair


Lee
That just brought a tear to my eyes.
__________________
"It's a million-to-one-chance, but it might just work" - Fred Colon, Carrot Ironfoundersson, Nobby Nobbs
ClarkWGriswold is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 14:04   #165
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 17,869
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post

Our government though has proved far more proficient at destroying economic activity and the wealth of the ordinary citizen (on the global SF Index we are currently sitting at 4750 and heading north ! in-line with our plummeting dollar ! )

Chosun
The Aussie economy has has it good for a very long time, perhaps more people will be able to afford a visit if this continues. I've spent months in Indonesia and despite being just a 3hr flight away for a great deal of that time, the silly cost of living in Aus has always put me off a visit, that and the prohibitive car hire rules.
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 15:53   #166
Steve Lister
World Birder, ex-County Recorder, Garden Moth-er

 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Loughborough, Leicestershire
Posts: 4,586
I have been out today for the first time since last Saturday. Went out to Tesco at 0610, both times.

So different this week. Only a quarter of the shoppers, extra staff, health precautions from entering to leaving, no queues, no big gaps on the shelves. Got everything I wanted.

And I had not realised how the price of fuel has tumbled - just £107.9 at Tesco, but still £119.9 at my local BP. Typical isn't it? When you don't need it for anything it is cheaper than for ages.

Keep safe everyone.

Steve
Steve Lister is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 16:29   #167
Richard Prior
Halfway up an Alp
 
Richard Prior's Avatar

 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: MANIGOD
Posts: 3,037
There you go Steve, instead of stockpiling toilet rolls, it’s time to get a 45gallon drum and fill it with cheap petrol
I also left the house and surrounds for the first time in a week yesterday but it was to get looked at by the doctor (trust me to get an infection on my neck in the middle of a pandemic), sitting in a surgery waiting room in these times was not something I was looking forward to, but they did some good social distancing and I managed to not get coughed or sneezed on. The stay at home rules in France have been renewed for at least another 15 days, another fortnight on top of that could mean that the mountain breeding birds hereabouts should have no disturbance this spring which could result in better breeding success
__________________
"Thought I saw an eagle
But it might have been a vulture
I never could decide" Leonard Cohen
Richard Prior is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 16:55   #168
JWN Andrewes
Poor Judge of Pasta.
 
JWN Andrewes's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Flintshire, UK
Posts: 4,641
For me, asthmatic as I am, I see this as an existential threat. It's had me rather worried for last few days, and I made my own decision to more or less follow the rules laid out by the Government about 24 hours before they were announced, based on some of the news coverage I was seeing. In simple terms, if I get this, I don't know if I will survive it. I have never felt quite like this before, it really is bizarre. Like living in a badly written movie, some of the conversations I've been having recently have basically been hammy dialogue delivering hyperbolic exposition.

My job requires people to physically turn up onsite, and really can't be mothballed, but fortunately I work for an exceptional organisation which is allowing those with underlying health conditions that render them vulnerable to not come in. This means I now feel guilty that the rest of my team is buckling down and getting on with things while I am loafing at home.

Also, with two sons of school age, I now find myself pressed into the in the role of teacher. Wasn't expecting that a couple of months back! Never know, might learn something myself!

In other news, yearlist is in the toilet. I was having a go at doing a North Wales yearlist this year, had nudged it up to 133 with a local Cattle Egret, and then cancelled my plans to head out on Monday to look for Wheatears on Great Orme and Osprey & Great Grey Shrike around Clocaenog when I saw Saturday's Snowdon-mania on telly. Just felt that in the context of that even my modest itinerary felt irresponsible. Blackcap from the garden and Linnet on my morning walk today have added a couple more, but it's going to die a death (I know, poor choice of words) over the next few weeks. This would have been my weekend for checking Penycloddiau for Ring Ouzel. Only just a few minutes up the road, but might as well be on the moon. Garden list it is then.

Stay safe boys and girls, play nice, and see you on the other side, out in the field where we belong!
__________________
Last Lifer - (2325) Eastern Black-eared Wheatear.
Last UK - (463) Eastern Yellow Wagtail.
Last North Wales - (253) Cattle Egret.
Last Garden - (95) Osprey.
JWN Andrewes is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 21:12   #169
Sancho
Registered User
BF Supporter 2020
 
Sancho's Avatar

 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Ireland
Posts: 9,191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Troubador View Post
Yesterday I cut Troubadoris's hair and she cut mine, but this is something we have done all our married lives (48 years last December).

Lee
Congratulations, Troub & Troubis. Obviously mutual grooming is therefore the key to a long and happy relationship. Don't Bonobos do something similar? I seem to remember a documentary on TV that showed Bonobos grooming each other in order to maintain pair-bonds or something. Today i cut Mme. Sancho's hair. This is not an easy task, being from the Middle Kingdom she has very thick, strong hair that challenges even the most robust hair-clippers from Curry's. And although in her sixth decade, not a white hair on her head. (Big problem here for lots of women apparently is that now we're on virtual lockdown, they can't go to the hairdresser's, so the roots are going to show). I then had to cut my own, an easy task because there's very little left. And skinhead has been cool here now since about 1980. Remember boys and girls...Babybliss or Remington is your friend!
Sancho is offline  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 07:36   #170
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,507
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sancho View Post
Congratulations, Troub & Troubis. Obviously mutual grooming is therefore the key to a long and happy relationship. Don't Bonobos do something similar? I seem to remember a documentary on TV that showed Bonobos grooming each other in order to maintain pair-bonds or something.
Yes, but Bonobos use sex for every other kind of social interaction - saying hello, reducing social tensions etc.

Not necessarily a model that will work in a human relationship, though some have tried it.

John
Farnboro John is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 07:54   #171
Troubador
Moderator
 
Troubador's Avatar

 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 10,048
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkWGriswold View Post
That just brought a tear to my eyes.
Was this caused by looking back nostalgically and emotionally at that time your OH actually did this??

Lee
__________________
"You are never alone, with a sheep"
Troubador is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 07:58   #172
Troubador
Moderator
 
Troubador's Avatar

 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 10,048
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
Yes, but Bonobos use sex for every other kind of social interaction - saying hello, reducing social tensions etc.

Not necessarily a model that will work in a human relationship, though some have tried it.

John
Absolutely right John and mixing sex with hair-cutting is definitely ill-advised as neither activity benefits from the other and the tidying-up afterwards takes longer. I would imagine.

Lee
__________________
"You are never alone, with a sheep"
Troubador is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 10:28   #173
Sancho
Registered User
BF Supporter 2020
 
Sancho's Avatar

 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Ireland
Posts: 9,191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
Yes, but Bonobos use sex for every other kind of social interaction - saying hello, reducing social tensions etc.


John
Good Lord, that sounds exhausting!
Sancho is offline  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 11:16   #174
ClarkWGriswold
Carpe Carpum
BF Supporter 2020
 
ClarkWGriswold's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Caerbannog
Posts: 9,798
Blog Entries: 3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Troubador View Post
Was this caused by looking back nostalgically and emotionally at that time your OH actually did this??

Lee
It’s evident I have trust issues
__________________
"It's a million-to-one-chance, but it might just work" - Fred Colon, Carrot Ironfoundersson, Nobby Nobbs
ClarkWGriswold is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 11:19   #175
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 17,869
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkWGriswold View Post
It’s evident I have trust issues
So do I, my parents didn't leave me one!
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Advertisement
Reply


Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Warning of Parasite affecting Hedgehogs Peewit Conservation 0 Sunday 12th August 2012 21:20
How is climate change affecting birds? (BTO) BF Newsroom Latest news from the BTO 0 Saturday 16th July 2011 14:35
Adverts affecting web speeds JTweedie Computers, Birding Software And The Internet 4 Thursday 20th January 2011 11:00
Oil spill in North Sea now affecting seabirds Julian Bell Live Bird News from around the World 3 Friday 21st December 2007 07:06
ED/HDF Glass affecting RBI/Twilight factor cassowary Spotting Scopes & tripod/heads 2 Thursday 20th April 2006 09:55

{googleads}

Fatbirder's Top 1000 Birding Websites

Help support BirdForum

Page generated in 0.16801095 seconds with 40 queries
All times are GMT. The time now is 18:30.