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How to cope with coronavirus

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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 10:33   #151
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If you let them wander around unchecked, they'll probably have no future and no one, is locking them up, it's an advisory in both their own and the public good.

I have a neighbour who's in an 'at risk' group and he's happily self isolating for three months with the support of neighbours.
There are literally posts in this thread that advocate for isolating the elderly and letting the disease run loose among the rest. In such a case, the elderly have no choice - and many of the "healthy" will suffer and die anyway That's what I am speaking against.
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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 10:40   #152
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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 10:42   #153
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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 12:22   #154
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I think perhaps ‘what to do with the ‘elderly’ and ‘high risk’ groups is all a bit of a moot point now isn’t it - the lockdown and restrictions applies to everyone since deaths rates will inevitably be further compounded by a lack of heath care equipment/beds even amongst those that would have otherwise had a good survival rate if you ‘just let the disease run loose’.

The whole point of any of these restrictions is to prevent the health service from completely buckling, so that, in addition to high risk groups, otherwise young fit healthy people dont loose their lives as a result of coronavirus or any other disease/accidents. People that advocate the idea that just isolating the elderly and high risk, while life and business/schools etc continue uncurtailed, don’t seem to understand that the hospitals will still be overrun with other groups requiring hospital care/IC for coronavirus in addition to the inevitable ‘usual’ cases of accidents and unrelated health emergencies.

Elderly and high risk people are voluntarily self-isolating -(I include myself in the latter group) but I do feel sad for elderly people especially especially if they have no garden to sit in. However, there’s a tremendous of amount of voluntary community support springing up in the UK (and I hope in other countries) underpinned by Gvt provisions to provide health care support volunteers to the million and half people that have very serious underlying conditions. Churches and voluntary groups and certainly families are rallying together to support high risk people in their own homes. So there’s still some ‘warm and fuzzy’ in all of this
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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 12:43   #155
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But we are the West. It's the core of the discussion, what we, as the West, should do now. And I am saying that proposing that we put our desire to not be infringed on our civil rights ahead of the future of the elderly is immoral, that's really all.
You could say that is immoral - but is it less immoral than having the elderly die en masse in overwhelmed hospital systems? This is not about "our desire" to not be infringed on "our civil" rights - if you read my post, and it's sure as heck not just about the West. If the economy is st*ffed permanently, if a mass transfer of wealth and destruction of economic value takes place - all to working age people whose health would it seems be largely unaffected - then the elderly and vulnerable will be adversely impacted economically anyway, which will definitely negatively impact their standard of living, care, and health.

Really - health wise - what is the alternative ? I think it is too optimistic (naive even) to think this will be over quickly with the current strategy. My bet is that elderly people will have their normal freedoms curtailed every bit as long, or even longer under the current strategy, compared to any 'middle way'. They will also be massively poorer. Prices of essentials here (food, cleaning materials etc) have gone up by 25% minimum. Toilet paper can sell for $3 a roll. Any investment income received and portfolio values have dropped by 1/3 minimum. Pensioners are mostly excluded here from any additional financial assistance being rolled out.

Does anyone honestly think the world can track every infected person? - when a good portion of them are completely asymptomatic, or have easily ignored mild symptoms. I have heard of cases of testing kits out of China that were only 30% accurate, and the amount of testing is woefully inadequate and flawed. We are going to see wave after wave in the so called ongoing 'rollercoaster'. 'Herd immunity' among largely unaffected people will take longer with the current strategy. I even read today that attempts are being made to make some sort of serums or something from recovered people.

Scotty from Marketing (our excuse for a PM) let thousands and thousands of US travellers into the country days before travel was restricted, he also let several thousand people disembark from a cruise ship even though some were under test - now over ~50 or whatever of those people have tested positive and the thousands they were in contact with have been moving freely about the community.

I just don't see any alternative to quarantining the elderly. Look what is happening in Italy even with quite stringent distancing and lockdown. This does not mean 'isolation' socially. In some cultures (many Indigenous ones) - elders are revered even moreso than the multigenerational cultures (Italian, Indian, etc) , let alone the West. They are the living font of knowledge, lore, and wisdom, and as such are culturally irreplaceable (not that anyone's elderly relatives aren't) .....

We really need to consider the wider picture here.




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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 13:01   #156
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You could say that is immoral - but is it less immoral than having the elderly die en masse in overwhelmed hospital systems? This is not about "our desire" to not be infringed on "our civil" rights - if you read my post, and it's sure as heck not just about the West. If the economy is st*ffed permanently, if a mass transfer of wealth and destruction of economic value takes place - all to working age people whose health would it seems be largely unaffected - then the elderly and vulnerable will be adversely impacted economically anyway, which will definitely negatively impact their standard of living, care, and health.

Really - health wise - what is the alternative ? I think it is too optimistic (naive even) to think this will be over quickly with the current strategy. My bet is that elderly people will have their normal freedoms curtailed every bit as long, or even longer under the current strategy, compared to any 'middle way'. They will also be massively poorer. Prices of essentials here (food, cleaning materials etc) have gone up by 25% minimum. Toilet paper can sell for $3 a roll. Any investment income received and portfolio values have dropped by 1/3 minimum. Pensioners are mostly excluded here from any additional financial assistance being rolled out.

Does anyone honestly think the world can track every infected person? - when a good portion of them are completely asymptomatic, or have easily ignored mild symptoms. I have heard of cases of testing kits out of China that were only 30% accurate, and the amount of testing is woefully inadequate and flawed. We are going to see wave after wave in the so called ongoing 'rollercoaster'. 'Herd immunity' among largely unaffected people will take longer with the current strategy. I even read today that attempts are being made to make some sort of serums or something from recovered people.

Scotty from Marketing (our excuse for a PM) let thousands and thousands of US travellers into the country days before travel was restricted, he also let several thousand people disembark from a cruise ship even though some were under test - now over ~50 or whatever of those people have tested positive and the thousands they were in contact with have been moving freely about the community.

I just don't see any alternative to quarantining the elderly. Look what is happening in Italy even with quite stringent distancing and lockdown. This does not mean 'isolation' socially. In some cultures (many Indigenous ones) - elders are revered even moreso than the multigenerational cultures (Italian, Indian, etc) , let alone the West. They are the living font of knowledge, lore, and wisdom, and as such are culturally irreplaceable (not that anyone's elderly relatives aren't) .....

We really need to consider the wider picture here.




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Honestly, I would not have imagined it to be possible to track everyone.

Then South Korea basically did it. In one of the most crowded countries of the world (they don't have such a big population density if you just look at the numbers, but a lot of the country is impenetrable forest and any where people live is completely packed, with high-rise buildings even in small towns).

They haven't eradicated the virus, but they have pushed it down to dozens of new cases per day, so it seems that it requires an ongoing effort. The fact that people don't show symptoms doesn't make it impossible - you don't test people based on symptoms, but based on their contact with someone who got tested positive and eventually you trace out the whole tree of spread. The endgame is then to make the testing infrastructure so extensive that you basically comb out all the cases from the population.

I don't understand why people don't see that this is a proven option. If letting a lot of people get infected was the only option and the discussion was how to manage that exactly, I would (somewhat unusually :)) agree with you. But it isn't! It just requires to rethink our priorities and for everyone to submit to global surveillance. I know people don't like that, but any other alternative is extremely dire.
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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 13:25   #157
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the fact that people are jumping to quarantining the elderly rather than try to follow South Korea's lead might have more to say about there confidence in the abilities of our leaders and governments than anything else.

Something that keeps getting lost here...Some people seem to be thinking that Coronavirus only affects those 70+. However heightened risk I believe starts in the 50's and 60's, and given my countries high rate of obesity, diabetes, various other health issues, you would have to quarantine a far far higher percentage of the population, and some of those vulnerable folks are major parts of the economy. I just don't know how this is a viable option.
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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 16:12   #158
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Very interesting, indeed, thanks for the excerpts. What do you/he see as the public policy implications of all this?
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That sounds like the rationale for a variant of the 'lets develop herd immunity' policy, infect everybody just a little bit.
It is. At first there might have been other options. At this point, that's the sound science, ever since someone figured out smallpox inoculation (possibly in China!) centuries ago. It's happening anyway, much more widespread already than most realize. I think there's no point in undoing ourselves to fight it, just trying to avoid serious infections leading to hospitalization, which seem likely to arise in (1) healthcare workers, (2) the immunocompromised etc, and equally worrisome, (3) in the home just where everyone is now trying to stay.

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I have bought into the idea that accidental exposure is better than household one, it seems well supported. That's why I am doing the once-weekly shopping, not my wife, despite me being a higher risk group. We live on 17 sq. meters, there is no way to prevent transmission between us. it's geometrically impossible for us to stay 2 meters from each other and both have access to the toilet...
I agree. I've thought a lot about this since it first occurred to me. The reasonable thing to do seems to be for my partner and I to monitor our temperatures, as even a mild infection should elevate them measurably.

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Old Friday 27th March 2020, 22:00   #159
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I don’t know if the link to this article has already been posted in one or other of the coronavirus threads. If so, my apologies. In any case it’s a very interesting one which explores various “timelines” for the restoration of “normalcy”.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/a...normal/608752/
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 02:03   #160
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I don’t know if the link to this article has already been posted in one or other of the coronavirus threads. If so, my apologies. In any case it’s a very interesting one which explores various “timelines” for the restoration of “normalcy”.
Thank you, but I've had enough of Neil-Fergusonian 18-month timelines of doom and so on. It could take a year or two to achieve herd immunity? A new Oxford study is indicating that half the British population has already had the virus. It's happening much faster than predicted, with many fewer serious complications -- which is exactly what one would expect, having vastly underestimated the spread due to inadequate testing, and inflated the mortality. In fact everything is happening much faster than our understanding or planning can cope with, which could have been absolutely disastrous, but I think it won't be. One dangerous wave of hospitalizations, and then nothing remotely like that again. The shorter timeline considered "unlikely" in this article, because by testing only symptomatic individuals, enough attention isn't being paid to what the virus is actually doing in the rest of the population.

So there has been this horrible dilemma put with varying degrees of tact, whether the West should commit cultural suicide or let the vulnerable die. I did take a position on that (destroying ourselves to defend one of our values sacrifices the rest of them and is therefore not noble), but now I'm going to weasel out of it by expecting that the choice won't be necessary after all. I do hope everyone will be happy with that outcome.

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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 04:32   #161
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A new Oxford study is indicating that half the British population has already had the virus.
Have you got a link for that, please? A figure I heard for Australia was that 60% would eventually get it after a year or so.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 04:41   #162
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. . .So there has been this horrible dilemma put with varying degrees of tact, whether the West should commit cultural suicide or let the vulnerable die. I did take a position on that, but now I'm going to weasel out of it by expecting that the choice won't be necessary after all. I do hope everyone will be happy with that.
No need to worry. Nobody here—or anywhere else, I imagine—gives 2 hoots about your “position” one way or the other.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 07:16   #163
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Have you got a link for that, please? A figure I heard for Australia was that 60% would eventually get it after a year or so.
https://reaction.life/oxford-study-5...ected-already/

there is a link to it. It was mentioned on another thread too.
The thing is, if 50% have been infected by the virus and we detected 12,000 cases, then when the uk has detected 24k cases, that equates to 100% of uk having it.

Or the 50% claim is incorrect.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 08:42   #164
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No need to worry. Nobody here—or anywhere else, I imagine—gives 2 hoots about your “position” one way or the other.
You misunderstood me. I meant I hope everyone will be happy with that more positive outcome instead of defending their choice of evils, not happy with what I said. (I don't care about that either.)
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 10:16   #165
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https://reaction.life/oxford-study-5...ected-already/

there is a link to it. It was mentioned on another thread too.
The thing is, if 50% have been infected by the virus and we detected 12,000 cases, then when the uk has detected 24k cases, that equates to 100% of uk having it.

Or the 50% claim is incorrect.
In the article, it links to another one which doesn't mention 50%. I don't know where they got it from.

Seems like wishful thinking to me. It would require very different behaviour of the virus compared to China and Italy.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 10:31   #166
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The thing is, if 50% have been infected by the virus and we detected 12,000 cases, then when the uk has detected 24k cases, that equates to 100% of uk having it.

Or the 50% claim is incorrect.
I suspect this study is based on false premises and the conclusions are therefore utter nonsense. In Germany large scale testing started a lot earlier than in the UK, and all the leading German virologists and epideomologists like Christian Drosten and Alexander Kekule as well as the RKI agree it will take a year (or longer) until 60-70% of the population will have had the virus.

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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 10:36   #167
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No need to worry. Nobody here—or anywhere else, I imagine—gives 2 hoots about your “position” one way or the other.
Thanks for posting the article Fugl - I for one found it interesting and well balanced especially with regard to the possible fallacies surrounding her immunity.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 11:15   #168
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There are literally posts in this thread that advocate for isolating the elderly and letting the disease run loose among the rest. In such a case, the elderly have no choice - and many of the "healthy" will suffer and die anyway That's what I am speaking against.
Russia has it right, they told pensioners in Moscow to self isolate in their own best interests and in a move which would have been lambasted in the West, to contain them further, their bus and underground passes have been disabled for the week.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 11:26   #169
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Russia has it right, they told pensioners in Moscow to self isolate in their own best interests and in a move which would have been lambasted in the West, to contain them further, their bus and underground passes have been disabled for the week.
I am not saying that it's a great idea for the elderly to be running around right now, just that "isolate the elderly and let all the others catch it" is not a reasonable strategy in the long run, for many reasons that I have already explained (including, but not limited to, the fact that it would still kill a tragic number of the "young" as well as the elderly in the process). This is an important distinction.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 11:52   #170
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I am not saying that it's a great idea for the elderly to be running around right now, just that "isolate the elderly and let all the others catch it" is not a reasonable strategy in the long run, for many reasons that I have already explained (including, but not limited to, the fact that it would still kill a tragic number of the "young" as well as the elderly in the process). This is an important distinction.
Are you still not understanding that it's a move to try and prevent the health service being overwhelmed? A delay in the peak will allow much more preparation to be put in place, the aquisition of ventilators and provision of extra beds amnnd staff among other things.

Nobody is saying 'let everyone else catch it, it's just that older patients are far more likely to end up needing a bed in the ICU than younger people. The argument about personal freedom and principles, has to be put to one side in the common interest.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 12:46   #171
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Are you still not understanding that it's a move to try and prevent the health service being overwhelmed? A delay in the peak will allow much more preparation to be put in place, the aquisition of ventilators and provision of extra beds amnnd staff among other things.

Nobody is saying 'let everyone else catch it, it's just that older patients are far more likely to end up needing a bed in the ICU than younger people. The argument about personal freedom and principles, has to be put to one side in the common interest.
You are still not understanding that just delaying the peak is vastly insufficient no matter how much preparation you do. The health system won't be overwhelmed by a factor of 2, but by orders of magnitude. Even if you procured an endless heap of supplies, you will not train 10 times the amount of personnel in a few months. Moreover, the medicine is not the end-all solution here, many people still die despite best efforts. In the WHO study from China, roughly a half of people needing ventilator dies anyway. Even if you accept these loses (which I do not), having it run through the "young" population on a level that does not overwhelm the medical system would still take years and many of the locked up vulnerables will die, be it from lack of care, depression causing suicide or deterioration or simply of old age while spending their final years in a prison of their own home.

Yet we still have people arguing that we lock up the vulnerable for a time sufficient for the others to create "herd immunity". No, we must protect the vulnerable, but we must also protect anyone else. Tracing and testing, with the goal of keeping the infection on a basal level (as done in South Korea) is the only humane solution, even if it will mean vast intrusions into civil liberties. So yes, let's quarantine the elderly for now, by all means, but only for the time needed to get the infection under control. But that's not what has been proposed here, there were literal suggestions of removing all restrictions in the rest of the population for the sake of a healthy economy and letting the disease run its course while the elderly are "safe" and I insist that that's not a good idea.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 14:08   #172
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[b]

Yet we still have people arguing that we lock up the vulnerable for a time sufficient for the others to create "herd immunity". No, we must protect the vulnerable, but we must also protect anyone else. Tracing and testing, with the goal of keeping the infection on a basal level (as done in South Korea) is the only humane solution, even if it will mean vast intrusions into civil liberties. So yes, let's quarantine the elderly for now, by all means, but only for the time needed to get the infection under control. But that's not what has been proposed here, there were literal suggestions of removing all restrictions in the rest of the population for the sake of a healthy economy and letting the disease run its course while the elderly are "safe" and I insist that that's not a good idea.
Why do you continue to use this emotive term, NOBODY, is being locked up, they're being 'advised' to stay home for their own good.
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Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 14:13   #173
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You are still not understanding that just delaying the peak is vastly insufficient no matter how much preparation you do. The health system won't be overwhelmed by a factor of 2, but by orders of magnitude. Even if you procured an endless heap of supplies, you will not train 10 times the amount of personnel in a few months. Moreover, the medicine is not the end-all solution here, many people still die despite best efforts.

. So yes, let's quarantine the elderly for now, by all means, but only for the time needed to get the infection under control. But that's not what has been proposed here, there were literal suggestions of removing all restrictions in the rest of the population for the sake of a healthy economy and letting the disease run its course while the elderly are "safe" and I insist that that's not a good idea.
1. This statement is totally contradicted by 2.

2. You just argued in favour of something you stated won't work in point 1 there because that is exactly why they're doing it?!

Nobody has seriously suggested removing all restrictions on the rest of society, some people have discussed it, no more than that and it has not been seriously looked at or proposed by any government or anyone within government, certainly not in the UK.

What would you do then Jan, ruin the World economy for at least the next generation to save a few thousand lives 'on principal', would you let the whole World 'go dark' because that's where this could end if the economy isn't restarted soon.

Those espousing principles, tend not to be those who are struggling to feed, clothe and house their children
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 04:33   #174
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Exclamation Morrison abandons democracy; installs junta to cope with COVID-19

Scotty from Marketing has now outsourced the government function to his 'mates'. An interesting article on the undemocratic coup in Australia filled with lots of big words that some will revel in ......

https://theaimn.com/morrison-abandon...iPyafy-yJlfQaE






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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 08:09   #175
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You are still not understanding that just delaying the peak is vastly insufficient no matter how much preparation you do.
I am pretty sure the idea isn't to simply to delay the peak, it is to spread the cases out over a longer period of time so that the peak is lower and the load on health services at any one time is reduced.

The fact that this should also delay the peak until a warmer part of the year should also lower the peak if this virus reduces in activity in response to higher temperatures in the same way as influenza.

While we may well find out preparations have been far from perfect this strategy seems sensible and practical to me.

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