Jeff Hopkins
Just another...observer
According to The Guardian, quite possibly it's due to earlier and more extensive testing.
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Corona virus threat to birding (2 Viewers)
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Andy Adcock
Worst person on Birdforum
Sorry to hear this, I feel for you, what are the French government doing to help you.
I'm no BoJo fan at all but I have been surprised by the genersosity of this government in doing what they are to support people and small businesses. I think we're lucky to live in the UK at a time like this.
I know if we'd still been in Russia, anyone losing their job would be totally on their own and I suspect some of the less wealthy nations e.g Greece, will not be able to support their people in the same way.
Deb Burhinus
Used to be well known! 😎
I posted this on another thread too - if people are in any doubt that sitting in a bird hide or birding with buddies/in busy places makes you safe because you are outside, please watch this video, read the article and keep your distance!
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smar...just-how-big-sneeze-clouds-can-get-180960257/
Xenospiza
Distracted
The ornitho sighting portals have also started an action #StayHomeAndWatchOut where you can enter sightings from the confines of your home. For those that are locked down (in Italy, France and the Basque Country, for example), or just not going out.
I have no time to watch birds when I'm working at home! Only added Large Tortoiseshell to the balcony list.
rosbifs
PutAin STOP
I get nothing from the government because as well as my job I’m also ‘self employed’. I’m a guide touristic which means I can act as a bird guide. My groups this June are almost certainly going to cancel...
If I wasn’t self employed as well I would get 100% from the French government so very generous and way beyond other nations.
My girlfriend was supply teaching. She had applied for full time but they now have to wait to see what happens and when.
Anyway, the bit I will miss the most as I return to France is contact. Either through work or my groups in June. I basically go into solitary....
On the positive side I may get some interesting flyovers and within the 2km allowed ‘exercising’ radius I have a middle spotted woodpecker and scops owl nest to find....
dantheman
Bah humbug
Cool. The above is just intended as a fun BF thing like the Jan 1st Joint list, although sure anyone can post anything. Imagine BTO and others will be starting or working on more things, such as garden surveys etc
Working from home ... I think that will mean different things to different people ...
Jeff Hopkins
Just another...observer
Wanted to share this Interesting Article
Andy Adcock
Worst person on Birdforum
There is a theory now (Guardian newspaper) that the Italian figure may be so high due to differences in recording methods.
Germany doesn't do post-mortem coronavirus testing so if you die at home of respiratory failure in Germany it will be logged as natural causes while in Italy they test you and log it. It has been suggested that many people who have died in Italy, succumbed to pre-existing conditions and simply had the virus as a double whammy. Bottom line, it may not have been the actual virus that killed many of these people?
DMW
Well-known member
I've seen 3 factors invoked to explain the low German morbidity rate - higher reported infections due to higher rates of testing, significantly lower average age of those infected compared to Italy, and lack of post-mortem testing, as you describe.
Mysticete
Well-known member
Anecdotally I have heard that parks near NYC and Seattle both having been having crowding issues, and a lot of folks who would otherwise NEVER step onto a hiking trail are going out. Beyond the fact that this will result in lack of social distancing and probably increase call to shut parks down to any use, I would imagine in some areas you might get increases in injuries for people going out and not being properly prepared.
Andy Adcock
Worst person on Birdforum
Some analysis of fatality % per country
'Recording the numbers of those who die with Coronavirus will inflate the CFR (confirmed fatality rates) as opposed to those that died from Coronavirus, which will reduce the CFR.'
San Marino 12.5%
Algeria 10.79%
Indonesia 9.34%
Italy 9.01
China 4.02
UK 4.78%
https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
'Italy
In Italy, there are several reasons why CFR might be higher: the age structure of the Italian population (2nd oldest population in the world); highest rates of antibiotic resistance deaths in Europe which might contribute to increased pneumonia deaths (Italy tops the EU for antibiotic-resistance deaths with nearly 1/3rd of the deaths in the EU). Smoking also seems to be a factor associated with poor survival – in Italy, 24% smoke, 28% men. In the UK, for instance, 15% are current smokers.'
'Recording the numbers of those who die with Coronavirus will inflate the CFR (confirmed fatality rates) as opposed to those that died from Coronavirus, which will reduce the CFR.'
San Marino 12.5%
Algeria 10.79%
Indonesia 9.34%
Italy 9.01
China 4.02
UK 4.78%
https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
'Italy
In Italy, there are several reasons why CFR might be higher: the age structure of the Italian population (2nd oldest population in the world); highest rates of antibiotic resistance deaths in Europe which might contribute to increased pneumonia deaths (Italy tops the EU for antibiotic-resistance deaths with nearly 1/3rd of the deaths in the EU). Smoking also seems to be a factor associated with poor survival – in Italy, 24% smoke, 28% men. In the UK, for instance, 15% are current smokers.'
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Chosun Juan
Given to Fly
I was watching a Q & A special tonight (1 studio guest, health professional professor's video links, Skyped audience questions) with no live audience (the usual format).
There were a few interesting snippets to note:
A returning traveller after a trip to NY was in a 14 day self isolation quarantine at home. He asked if he could go bushwalking or surfing by himself (both within close proximity to his home). He was told no. The reason being that quarantine is quarantine.
Scotty from Marketing (our PM) had given permission for a cruise ship (Ruby Princess I think) carrying nearly ~4000 people to dock, even though several passengers were awaiting test results. There was no temperature checking, symptom screening, or any other form of testing carried out before disembarkment, nor any isolation or quarantine requirements. Since then ~35 ~50 or whatever the figure is now, people who had been freely circulating in the general population have tested positive for COVID-19. You couldn't write a better st*ff up !
Any testing carried out in this country so far has been totally inadequate. I know of many people who were symptomatic and had presented at Dr.'s and we're not tested - thus not listed as cases, and no contact tracing done. Asymptomatic people have not been tested, and a not insignificant number of people were in this category - they have potentially spreading the disease for weeks and weeks.
We had circa a ~50% increase in cases today (over 500), and even though the death rate is extremely low (7, aged 77 and up, average age 86) , our case load trajectory ('the hockeystick') is on as poor a trajectory as an country in the world.
There have been reports of some young people having 'corona' parties .....
Shutdowns of increasing parts of the economy continue, now encompassing all sports (even lawn bowls !) , and aquatic centre's etc. Birdwatching still available ......
Chosun :gh:
Xenospiza
Distracted
Dutch beaches and forests were also full. It was "normal" where I went in Germany. But with not much else to do, people will go walking. I chose not to go to places where I knew keeping distance was impossible - such as various places with boardwalks.
For people like us at BF, who "always" go out, staying home while/because others go out is difficult to swallow!
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DMW
Well-known member
This was specifically ruled out in the referenced article as a reason for Germany's unusually low morbidity rate, as most European health services haven't yet been overwhelmed (Italy and presumably Spain being exceptions). It is likely to be a factor as the rate of infection peaks.
Mysticete
Well-known member
well, our governor today issue a stay at home "order" (mostly a request). All non essential businesses closed, and people should only be leaving there home for groceries and doctors appointments. Walking your dog or getting an exercise walk is fine, but my assumption is that this means no longer distance travel to birding sites, which due to my location is most of my birding. I guess I will have to hope I get lucky on my drive for groceries, or content myself with house sparrows and the occasional gull flyby from my 4th floor apartment
Jeff Hopkins
Just another...observer
I've started planning my outings based on 1) avoiding public parks and heading to more isolated state game lands and 2) getting out earlier in the AM and getting home before the "nice spring afternoon" crowds show up. That said, there certainly are fewer people out and about here in general.
And so far, things seem under control here. Testing is definitely ramping up. Of a county population of 350,000, as of yesterday there were only 25 confirmed cases and only one death.
FWIW, an Israel scientist noted that the way to track the outbreak isn't the number of cases. It's the number of deaths. Increasing numbers of cases is most likely an indication of increased testing rates. It's good from defining the spread and mortality percentages, but not an adequate indication of whether the outbreak is slowing. The rate of deaths gives a better indication of the rate of expansion or contraction of the outbreak.
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Jeff Hopkins
Just another...observer
well, our governor today issue a stay at home "order" (mostly a request). All non essential businesses closed, and people should only be leaving there home for groceries and doctors appointments. Walking your dog or getting an exercise walk is fine, but my assumption is that this means no longer distance travel to birding sites, which due to my location is most of my birding. I guess I will have to hope I get lucky on my drive for groceries, or content myself with house sparrows and the occasional gull flyby from my 4th floor apartment
If PA is any indication, the enforcement effort will be on making sure non-essential businesses stay closed and crowds don't form. It's unlikely they'll have the bandwidth to deal with individuals.
I'm not suggesting you flaunt the rules, but if you start going stir-crazy...
tenex
reality-based
OK, "rubbish" was a bit strong but I was trying to make a point about the need to trust reputable sources in a crisis. Not everything in that blog post is entirely false, but he's no expert on either viruses or public policy, and it's not worth my time (and I don't want to give it another click) to go back and dissect.You obviously don't like it then?
Is there anything correct, interesting or relevant in there in your opinion, or would it be safe to say that it is all rubbish.
Then again, the real problem here is that you can't "trust" the experts either, not the way people are thinking of trust, to tell us what to do. This is unlike familiar situations such as the need for universal vaccination against common diseases -- which of course has no downside for any significant number of people, as only ignorant laypeople imagine. Ask an epidemiologist how to stop the spread of this virus, and they'll tell you. But what the socioeconomic costs of doing that will be, isn't their department. We're dealing with a disease with a very low death rate, especially compared to a pandemic like Spanish Flu. (It's still potentially a lot of deaths, but not nearly as many as some claim.) Somebody has to exercise common sense in balancing those deaths vs other costs to enormous numbers of people, indeed entire countries. And I say that as a potential victim myself. Life is full of risks we can't afford to eliminate; the situation is what it is, and one takes one's chances.
Absolutely right. Or cannot keep stopping again and again for the next year and a half, as the medical experts have recommended. One round is going to be destructive enough; few will tolerate more.
The weird thing about this is that when I look around, all the professionals I would have said I respect are blindly recommending socioeconomic suicide, and the rest of those expressing doubts like mine (this early on anyway) are, well, not really my kind of people. Trump, for example, who just said we can't let the cure be worse than the disease -- though that may change, as it often does. But there's a dangerous herd mentality here, and hearing any doubt at a governmental level is very reassuring.
