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Birds and Weather - 2018

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Old Sunday 5th August 2018, 21:29   #26
Farnboro John
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BBC weather for week ahead not quite got that far yet.
That's because they respect that damn butterfly in New York!

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Old Sunday 5th August 2018, 22:06   #27
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That's because they respect that damn butterfly in New York!

John
Is that why their monthly forecasts always say chance of sun, rain, warmth, cold, wind, no wind, high pressure or possibly low pressure etcetera
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Old Monday 6th August 2018, 02:45   #28
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Differing forecasts for different sites... MSW doesn't really show it as anything of significance whereas Windy suggests it'll be a decent sized low when it passes. The latter currently predicts a speedy passage of the low mostly overnight Friday, before and after could be OK if that forecast holds, but wouldn't say it looks amazing. Given how warm this summer has been I guess it's likely that sea temperatures might be a few degrees higher than normal, maybe there's some scope for something unusual to be further north than in your average year?
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Old Monday 6th August 2018, 05:34   #29
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There may be some decent westerlies for SW Ireland Mon-Tues this week, followed by a pause

Later this week (Fri-Sun), it's worth keeping an eye on the following Low - could be good for sea-watching anywhere in the SW

Elsewhere, the central Pacific is having a very windy time, with 4 sizeable storms currently in progress. Not relevant ? Well, I seem to remember (possibly inaccurately) that in previous years this is followed by a busy year in the N Atlantic (after a very slow start in 2018). Feel free to tell me I'm wrong ...
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Old Monday 6th August 2018, 22:03   #30
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PG looking good for Saturday.......hopefully!
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Old Wednesday 8th August 2018, 13:33   #31
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Hi Cliff. I'm on a slow Internet connection heading south-west and unable to see anything other than xcweather. I'd say Sunday has potential to be the better day if their prediction of loads of rain Saturday night holds true. They currently show due westerly winds in the aftermath of the precipitation, which is not ideal, but potentially reverting to south-westerlies later in the day.
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Old Wednesday 8th August 2018, 23:04   #32
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Saturday - SW Ireland
Sunday - Cornwall
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Old Thursday 9th August 2018, 12:59   #33
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Sunday it is, thanks Graham/john!
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Old Thursday 9th August 2018, 14:22   #34
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looks pretty thin to me - but hope I'm wrong

cheers, a
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Old Saturday 11th August 2018, 22:09   #35
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Glad you went down today Alan! by you getting on the bird so early it allowed all there to see it well, nice one mate!
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Old Tuesday 14th August 2018, 08:06   #36
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Might be worth looking out to sea Weds (SW Ireland), Thu (Cornwall) ? Depends on exact track of next Low to be pushed across by the Jet Stream
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Old Wednesday 15th August 2018, 14:10   #37
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According to the National Hurricane Center website, there's a Subtropical Depression named "Five" developing in the centre of the N Atlantic - forecast to accelerate NE, with its remnants arriving at SW Ireland Sunday with possibly 40 kt winds

The Met's Surface Chart currently doesn't feature it as strong as this - I suspect updates will show it as more forceful
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Old Saturday 25th August 2018, 01:48   #38
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Wouldn't describe it as absolutely spectacular but Porthgwarra definitely worth a look on Sunday (take your brolly) for anyone in the area. Should be a few large shears and these days it seems a Fea's goes by every time the wind blows from the SW...
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Old Saturday 25th August 2018, 15:22   #39
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Wouldn't describe it as absolutely spectacular but Porthgwarra definitely worth a look on Sunday (take your brolly) for anyone in the area. Should be a few large shears and these days it seems a Fea's goes by every time the wind blows from the SW...
Yes it seems inevitable, August bank holiday there will always be a SW and there will always be a Feas at PG
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Old Saturday 25th August 2018, 17:41   #40
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You'll need more than a brolly
Warm front then 2 cold fronts
Winds forecast S then SW then W as the Low passes by
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Old Saturday 25th August 2018, 18:10   #41
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You'll need more than a brolly
Warm front then 2 cold fronts
Winds forecast S then SW then W as the Low passes by
Yes, scuba gear required tomorrow at pg

Cheers
A
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Old Sunday 26th August 2018, 14:34   #42
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Inevitably... Feas off PG @ 14.20
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Old Monday 27th August 2018, 11:32   #43
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Inevitably... Feas off PG @ 14.20
Surely it is more accurately described as North Atlantic Pterodroma sp or the Petrel formerly known as Soft-plumaged

Cheers

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Old Thursday 30th August 2018, 22:50   #44
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Might be a little easterly drift developing through next week ... possibly of interest ?

PS, there's a tropical cyclone developing off the coast of Gambia - there's a chance it could develop substantially & head this way. ETA 15-19 days ? Or maybe it won't

Last edited by John Watson : Friday 31st August 2018 at 07:50.
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Old Wednesday 5th September 2018, 07:58   #45
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That tropical cyclone has developed much more than NHC originally forecast, and is now hurricane Florence heading NW at the moment. Given that the sea temp at mid latitudes is several degrees warmer than it should be, Florence could well persist for a couple of weeks. The NHC express uncertainty about intensity & direction, too. Florence should start to appear somewhere on the Met Office's SPC in about a week, hopefully heading this way ...
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Old Wednesday 5th September 2018, 21:20   #46
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Inevitably... Feas off PG @ 14.20
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Surely it is more accurately described as North Atlantic Pterodroma sp or the Petrel formerly known as Soft-plumaged
Needs a Feasibility study.


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Old Thursday 6th September 2018, 10:43   #47
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Predictions

Come on people, stick your necks out. What is going to show up where this weekend?

High over Scandinavia, low over North Sea - look out Northern Isles! The forecast hadn't sounded too promising (for Cornwall) till I looked at the charts. Now I can envisage/dream of displaced birds being forced over the top and then, sandwiched between fronts, heading down the Irish Sea coasts.

So my predictions are Booted Warbler on Shetland, Arctic Warbler on Scilly, but ideally I'd like both here on the Lizard where they'd be rhs rares.
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Old Thursday 6th September 2018, 11:16   #48
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Tomorrow looks like a good day to be at a migrant hotspot anywhere in that slot between Germany/Denmark/S. Sweden. How about Thick-billed Warbler on Heligoland perhaps?
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Old Thursday 6th September 2018, 11:44   #49
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As a birder under 50, hopefully Yellow-breasted Bunting dig out by Migfest at Spurn
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Old Thursday 6th September 2018, 12:41   #50
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As a birder under 50, hopefully Yellow-breasted Bunting dig out by Migfest at Spurn
Im under 50 and dont need Yellow Breasted Bunting
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