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Birds and Weather - 2018

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Old Monday 1st October 2018, 10:06   #176
johnraven
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A grand total of 5 Red-breasted Flys reported on RBA in September, all in the first 8 days of the month - must be some kind of record
Wow. That really shows just how bad this Autumn is turning out to be, and the weather forecast shows no sign of improvement.
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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 09:04   #177
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Longer range forecasts now seem to be looking a bit more interesting from about the middle of next week onwards. High pressure building from Russia with more of an easterly flow. There potentially might be a 'battle' between the high and some Atlantic fronts towards the end of next week. A lot could change between now and then but at least it makes me feel that the autumn might not be a complete write-off.
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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 10:21   #178
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Is this the worst autumn (for megas) in modern birding history (so far)? I don't have access to any stats but the number of Eastern or Yank megas does seem to be dismal so far...
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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 10:26   #179
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Is this the worst autumn (for megas) in modern birding history (so far)? I don't have access to any stats but the number of Eastern or Yank megas does seem to be dismal so far...
Almost certainly - but don't forget that there are still some good birds around - River Warbler, Brown Shrike, WW Scoter - those birds were megas in the 1980s..

That said, we are right in the zone now date wise - two weeks to save the autumn?

cheers, alan
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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 11:00   #180
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That said, we are right in the zone now date wise - two weeks to save the autumn?
Nope, 2 months - autumn is getting later and later. Global warming.
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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 11:37   #181
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Most of my favourite rares of the last 10+ years have been November birds. We shouldn't despair.
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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 12:44   #182
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Nope, 2 months - autumn is getting later and later. Global warming.
nope. Aggregated data on my spreadsheet for those megas I need shows a very substantial peak from about 23rd sept to 16th October even when I exclude the commoner species; after that the drop off is very rapid. The November mega is always a possibility but for top listers only materlialises every ten years, eg Long-billed Murrelet.

cheers, alan
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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 13:25   #183
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Almost certainly - but don't forget that there are still some good birds around - River Warbler, Brown Shrike, WW Scoter - those birds were megas in the 1980s..
cheers, alan
Plus Yellow breasted Bunting, Lanceolated Warbler, White crowned Sparrow, White throated Sparrow and Pechora Pipit. All bar one found on the Shetland where a lot of ex Scilly regulars now spend their Autumn break. Okay, the R.E. Video was discovered on mainland Cornwall through being trapped. It's a sign of the times that rares and rarity seekers/ finders have moved North but an Easterly mega could still be on the cards as soon as the winds swing round.
Crikey - Unst produces another good bird, Eastern Yellow Wagtail. Whoever's on there is birding it hard.

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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 20:27   #184
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Most of my favourite rares of the last 10+ years have been November birds. We shouldn't despair.
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nope. Aggregated data on my spreadsheet for those megas I need shows a very substantial peak from about 23rd sept to 16th October even when I exclude the commoner species; after that the drop off is very rapid. The November mega is always a possibility but for top listers only materlialises every ten years, eg Long-billed Murrelet.

cheers, alan

Opinions will differ!
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Old Wednesday 3rd October 2018, 21:08   #185
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nope. Aggregated data on my spreadsheet for those megas I need shows a very substantial peak from about 23rd sept to 16th October even when I exclude the commoner species; after that the drop off is very rapid. The November mega is always a possibility but for top listers only materlialises every ten years, eg Long-billed Murrelet.

cheers, alan
But the dates in your spreadsheet are for previous occurrences. If autumns are getting later, then the likely dates for any future occurrences of those birds would tend to get a little later too wouldn't it?

That cape may warbler on Unst was 23rd Oct, not quite November but a week after your key period. Guess you don't need that one any more now though.
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Old Friday 5th October 2018, 07:16   #186
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Couldn't see any easterlies in the UK 7 day forecast last night......
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Old Friday 5th October 2018, 07:46   #187
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Couldn't see any easterlies in the UK 7 day forecast last night......
light ne this pm in east anglia? also strong NE on Saturday?

cheers, alan
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Old Friday 5th October 2018, 13:42   #188
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Localised easterlies this weekend for East Anglia and surrounding region. May not be great but a very definite improvement.

Longer term forecast now giving a trend of high pressure over Scandinavia and easterlies for the northern isles. There could be a mid October flurry of arrivals up north, although it’s still too far away to have any confidence in.
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Old Friday 5th October 2018, 15:18   #189
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Longer term forecast now giving a trend of high pressure over Scandinavia and easterlies for the northern isles. There could be a mid October flurry of arrivals up north, although it’s still too far away to have any confidence in.[/quote]

Pleeeaaaasseeee !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old Saturday 6th October 2018, 14:04   #190
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nope. Aggregated data on my spreadsheet for those megas I need shows a very substantial peak from about 23rd sept to 16th October even when I exclude the commoner species; after that the drop off is very rapid. The November mega is always a possibility but for top listers only materlialises every ten years, eg Long-billed Murrelet.

cheers, alan
Of 65 species with c140 accepted records in Britain & Ireland that I still need, I get a more even distribution of first dates with around a third in September and October but Great Bustards account for quite a bit of the winter interest and Needle-tailed Swifts account for quite a bit of late May and June.

All the best

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Old Saturday 6th October 2018, 20:34   #191
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Of 65 species with c140 accepted records in Britain & Ireland that I still need, I get a more even distribution of first dates with around a third in September and October but Great Bustards account for quite a bit of the winter interest and Needle-tailed Swifts account for quite a bit of late May and June.

All the best

Paul
Nothing sums up the excitement, spontaneity and allure of twitching likes stats and a spreadsheet 🙄

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Old Saturday 6th October 2018, 20:45   #192
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an

Nothing sums up the excitement, spontaneity and allure of twitching likes stats and a spreadsheet 🙄

PS only a joke.
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Old Saturday 6th October 2018, 21:15   #193
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Magic Seaweed currently predicts a system coming off New Brunswick/Nova Scotia early next Wednesday (10th), intensifying and hitting western Ireland 48 hours later.

Ventusky is showing SE winds for south coast next Wednesday and consistent SE on to Shetland for several days from then, connecting with SE airflow coming all the way from Ukraine.

Could be interesting.
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Old Saturday 6th October 2018, 21:15   #194
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Record numbers of Yellow-browed Warblers today at the Belgian coast. Between Blankenberge and Heist (= a stretch of 9km) 61 birds were found today. How are the numbers in the UK at the moment?
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Old Saturday 6th October 2018, 21:28   #195
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I have just realised a significant failing in the analysis of past acceptance dates to predict the date of future ticks. Of my 30 ticks since 1st January 2011, over half have been either first occurrences or first acceptable records.

Any way enough of the meandering, can someone please predict a Siberian Blue or Rufous-tailed Robin or a Magnolia or Blackburnian Warbler?

All the best
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Old Saturday 6th October 2018, 22:33   #196
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Record numbers of Yellow-browed Warblers today at the Belgian coast. Between Blankenberge and Heist (= a stretch of 9km) 61 birds were found today. How are the numbers in the UK at the moment?
A small number in the southeast; hardly any further north.


That could all change soon, I hope!
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Old Saturday 6th October 2018, 23:03   #197
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Record numbers of Yellow-browed Warblers today at the Belgian coast. Between Blankenberge and Heist (= a stretch of 9km) 61 birds were found today. How are the numbers in the UK at the moment?
That's 10 birds per mile I'll be up early tomorrow!

Cheers Johan
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Old Sunday 7th October 2018, 09:26   #198
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That's 10 birds per mile I'll be up early tomorrow!

Cheers Johan
Did you bunk off school to go twitching when they taught maths?
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Old Sunday 7th October 2018, 09:45   #199
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Did you bunk off school to go twitching when they taught maths?
Harsh. 10.84 using 1.6km/mile.
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Old Sunday 7th October 2018, 10:03   #200
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Might only be a “small number in the southeast” but at least 11 YBW on a 20 mile stretch of the north-east Essex coast yesterday (with more in nearby south Suffolk) is pretty good for here! Loads of other birds also arrived in the rain from lunchtime so could have been many more as four of these YBW were either in or v close to birders gardens...
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