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Will Brexit affect optics prices?

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Old Friday 1st February 2019, 20:29   #1
gambirder
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Will Brexit affect optics prices?

Can anyone fill me in? Looking to upgrade and want to know if I should strike quickly...

Thanks!
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Old Friday 1st February 2019, 22:30   #2
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Anybody having any certainty about this should be advising the government. ;-)
The most obvious variables:
(1) Brexit with agreement (i.e; longer under EU rules) or without?
(2) will the UK replace the EU import tariffs and duties with a higher or lower number?
(3) inflation? recession? future exchange rates?
(4) any quick trade agreements in the works? The EU-Japan trade deal effective today took more than five years to negotiate (and it doesn't cover binoculars); the one with Canada took seven years. Almost certainly the UK will be quicker.
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 02:17   #3
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It really is anyone's guess. The way things look at the moment I'm betting on Article 50 being suspended to allow for more time for... well... God knows. But banking on that might be costly. It's probably just as likely that we'll crash out with a hard Brexit and then customs duties will kick in. If there's one certainty other than death and taxes it's that, given half a chance, businesses will take punters for mugs. When the UK currency changed from 240 pence per pound to 100 it was obvious that prices would have to be rounded up or down. No prizes for guessing which way they all went. That's a typical example. If there is a hard Brexit, I don't know that there are set import duties all ready to apply at the flick of a switch, so prices might not go up immediately. But I guess it's possible that customs red tape, which no one is geared up to handle, could result in supply problems. If it were me I'd buy now.
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 07:31   #4
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Thanks chaps. Looks like there's a risk - as yet unquantified - of price increases. Might have to get a move on with my buying!
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 07:35   #5
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As others have suggested it's one for the crystal ball but if Brexit doesn't go smoothly (and the signs are not promising) then many are suggesting that the value of the against other currencies will drop. If so the price of imported optics (that's all of them!) will rise although, hopefully, not until retailers have sold their current stock.
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 09:34   #6
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I guess the optics retailers with the best cash flow and business planning for the future will stockpile wherever possible, the best selling products so that they can then offer them at a good price or the new prices after Brexit.
Of course prices will go up, but no one yet knows by how much or when. Nothing comes down unless it doesn't sell.
So answer to the question is Yes.
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 10:35   #7
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There will be no more migrants and most resident birds will relocate, so no need for binoculars anyway.
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 10:44   #8
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There will be no more migrants and most resident birds will relocate, so no need for binoculars anyway.
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 11:04   #9
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Exchange rates will mostly likely determine the change in prices, though tariffs and red tape might have some minor influence. Unless we throw article 50 away I don’t think that we’ll be seeing much in the way of a stronger pound (depends on currency gamblers and business mood). If you can afford now then go and buy, if not then keep saving and see what you can afford then or look to get second hand. There are plenty of good quality options out there.

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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 11:29   #10
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If the UK went to WTO rules and adopted a system of tariffs similar to Canada then binos might have a duty ranging from 0-6%. This after looking at several bewildering spreadsheets published on-line by WTO. Since the UK doesn't have a domestic bino-producing industry to protect then zero or a very low duty might be expected. Possibly.

If anybody with greater familiarity with HS Product Codes and tariffs disagrees I would welcome being corrected.

Lee
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 21:23   #11
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If the pound exchange rate goes down again not only imported binos should become more pricey shouldn't they?
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Old Saturday 2nd February 2019, 22:20   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Cantelo View Post
As others have suggested it's one for the crystal ball but if Brexit doesn't go smoothly (and the signs are not promising) then many are suggesting that the value of the against other currencies will drop. If so the price of imported optics (that's all of them!) will rise although, hopefully, not until retailers have sold their current stock.

They will increase prices as soon as they get an idea of an increase, retailers work off replacement cost. If the price to replace a product jumps 50% then they havent made enough money off existing stock to replace it.


To the OP, life's short, You may not be around to see a price increase so, if you are able to afford them, why not enjoy them now.
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Old Sunday 3rd February 2019, 00:57   #13
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Yes - if you're European it might be worth keeping an eye out for good deals at UK optics retailers the next time the pound wobbles!
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Old Sunday 3rd February 2019, 13:31   #14
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Or maybe even before the pound wobbles (just ordered another bino from UK dealer First Light Optics - as a pessimist, I believe prices will always go up, never down, come Brexit or Brexink)
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Old Monday 4th February 2019, 02:14   #15
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How is Brexit working out so far ?

Jerry
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Old Monday 4th February 2019, 02:25   #16
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How is Brexit working out so far ?

Jerry
That would be quite a funny question if it wasn't so tragic. The answer is very, very badly - from whichever angle you look at it. Never in living memory has a British government shown itself to be so utterly incompetent as our current one. They have had two years to plan for our country's future, but have wasted it with bickering and in-fighting to the extent that it looks like we will crash out of Europe on 29 March with hardly any proper plans in place. I think I had better stop there before I blow a gasket.
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Old Monday 4th February 2019, 16:01   #17
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Originally Posted by Jack Dawe View Post
That would be quite a funny question if it wasn't so tragic. The answer is very, very badly - from whichever angle you look at it. Never in living memory has a British government shown itself to be so utterly incompetent as our current one. They have had two years to plan for our country's future, but have wasted it with bickering and in-fighting to the extent that it looks like we will crash out of Europe on 29 March with hardly any proper plans in place. I think I had better stop there before I blow a gasket.
Excuse me for going OT, but I just stumbled over this, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcis...ality_disorder, which I think applies to many leading politicians and national leaders throughout the world. Many lack the basic knowledge or intellectual ability to understand the problems that confront them, let alone find solutions.
Once saw a documentary on this guy, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Mujica, who was a notable exception.

John

PS:- Lee, if you delete this, I won't hold it against you .
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Old Monday 4th February 2019, 18:31   #18
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If buying in the UK and resident in the EU, no deal will mean you can reclaim VAT on exit from the UK, thus for these persons at least, potential price reduction.
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Old Tuesday 5th February 2019, 09:30   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Troubador View Post
If the UK went to WTO rules and adopted a system of tariffs similar to Canada then binos might have a duty ranging from 0-6%. This after looking at several bewildering spreadsheets published on-line by WTO. Since the UK doesn't have a domestic bino-producing industry to protect then zero or a very low duty might be expected. Possibly.

If anybody with greater familiarity with HS Product Codes and tariffs disagrees I would welcome being corrected.

Lee
The tariff code for binos (9005 1000) attracts 5% duty for non-EU origin goods so China and Japan sourced imports are already priced to account for that tariff. Assuming no deal then, in theory at least, optics supplied from e.g. Austria and Germany should see a 5% increase in landed cost but how soon that would be implemented...?

From our point of view, we have assumed (for the time being) that the money markets look further ahead, to some extent, than two months and have probably "priced in" some devaluation of sterling already. That said, I personally think a no deal result will put more pressure on sterling thus making exports even cheaper but imports more expensive - for Opticron the two would balance out for euro exports as they would be cheaper despite yen and dollar imports being more expensive. However, for UK customers that movement in yen and dollar would mean more upward pressure on sterling prices.

That said, we have been artificially holding our internal exchange rate "breath" above the market rate for some time now but we have finally had to breathe out and that means some minor price increases for UK consumers but a number of price reductions for our US customers during this quarter.

Pete
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Old Tuesday 5th February 2019, 10:20   #20
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I remember the dollar to pound rate going from 5 dollars to the pound, then 4 then 2.80.
I think that it was Harold Wilson with his 'Your pound in the pocket is still worth a pound' untruth still ringing in my ears.
The rate went from 2.80 to 2.40.
Then it was not linked and steadily went down with fluctuations to 1.03 dollars to the pound about.
It then went up.
I expect up to another 20% devaluation of the pound.

My main concern is not the value of the pound but the possibility of civil unrest.
I deliberately don't watch any news or read any newspapers. Life is for living, not for following the fear that journalists thrive on.
Some news does pop up, but I tend to ignore it.

We used to buy foreign currency 3 to 6 months on to pay for our imports.
I personally negotiated a 5% cut in price from our foreign suppliers when the pound was devalued from 2.80 to 2.40 dollars to the pound. I had to agree not to sell to other countries.

Whether one buys a binocular now or later is a personal thing that others really cannot advise.

There is a hidden constant devaluation of about 2.5% per year that somehow isn't recorded by officialdom.

The soap I get from I think Unilever went up from 1.00 per two pack to 1.10. However, the chemist stopped buying it and it has been 1.00 per pack for about two years. Unilever backed off, partly because Tesco told them where to go, and just stopped buying their products.
However, the soap pack just jumped from 1.00 to 1.29. I am happy to pay this. But it is a big jump.
The Man sized tissues, which after 65 years became Large sized tissues because of 'correctness' are still 1.99 but now have ten less tissues in a thinner box.

Generally prices have gone up in the last year or two or the size of the product has gone down.

Last edited by Binastro : Tuesday 5th February 2019 at 10:28.
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Old Tuesday 5th February 2019, 13:22   #21
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In the UK, for many years a consumer guide was the cost and size of a Mars Bar. They've always gone up in price but down in size and weight. I really dont think we'll see civil unrest along the lines of the "poll tax uprising and riots" under a certain Iron Lady.

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Old Tuesday 5th February 2019, 16:06   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pete_gamby View Post
The tariff code for binos (9005 1000) attracts 5% duty for non-EU origin goods so China and Japan sourced imports are already priced to account for that tariff. Assuming no deal then, in theory at least, optics supplied from e.g. Austria and Germany should see a 5% increase in landed cost but how soon that would be implemented...?

From our point of view, we have assumed (for the time being) that the money markets look further ahead, to some extent, than two months and have probably "priced in" some devaluation of sterling already. That said, I personally think a no deal result will put more pressure on sterling thus making exports even cheaper but imports more expensive - for Opticron the two would balance out for euro exports as they would be cheaper despite yen and dollar imports being more expensive. However, for UK customers that movement in yen and dollar would mean more upward pressure on sterling prices.

That said, we have been artificially holding our internal exchange rate "breath" above the market rate for some time now but we have finally had to breathe out and that means some minor price increases for UK consumers but a number of price reductions for our US customers during this quarter.

Pete
Many thanks for this explanation Pete.

Lee
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Old Tuesday 5th February 2019, 20:19   #23
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My usual teabags are now 3-29, used to be 1-50 for ages back in the not so long ago. Unlike other stuff they haven’t suffered from shrinkage (same price, smaller portion). May have to start drinking cheaper stuff.

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