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COVID: lies, damn lies, and statistics

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Old Monday 25th May 2020, 22:45   #376
Elkhornsun
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when the Washington state teachers were on strike they were protesting their having to teach children to pass a federal test. The head of the union said that they needed to instead be teaching critical thinking to children and this struck home. Most people I have encountered and certainly some of our past presidents and the current clown lack this ability. When the president recommends injecting disinfectant or swallowing a UV light to treat the coronavirus it is clear that he does not have even a basic understanding of the human body.

In the USA the CDC is purposely merging numbers for those tested and show as currently being positive for the virus with numbers for those who showed having antibodies based on a different test. As a result the CDC numbers are meaningless and being doctored to support the Republicans who want to quickly reopen businesses at any cost. People like Mitch and Donald have never given any thought much less shown any concern for people outside their immediate family or campaign donors. Why would anyone expect rational ethical behavior from these people? The mistake is to assume that these men and women actually care about other people and are honest and honorable and want to do the right thing.

My wife and I feel like we were among the lucky passengers who although we are not rich we still managed to get into one of the lifeboats and now with the Titanic sinking and people are dying. But not to worry as those drowning are working class stiffs of no real importance.

In the USA to be an essential worker means you are an expendible worker.
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Old Yesterday, 05:49   #377
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Quote:
Originally Posted by opisska View Post
...
Also, let me just say that reading a paper that says "we use Bayesian inference" is funny on a significant amount of levels (for reasons I am not willing to venture into - but it's not a criticism of their results).
Does this mean you think Bayesian inference is a joke?

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Old Yesterday, 06:26   #378
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Just keep taking it Mr President

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52799120
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Old Yesterday, 11:21   #379
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Exclamation The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

Could measures to prevent the spread of the virus among the unaffected part of the population have unintended consequences ? Studies of 'normal' flu .....

https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.co...41-7015-10-162







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Old Yesterday, 11:33   #380
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Could measures to prevent the spread of the virus among the unaffected part of the population have unintended consequences ? Studies of 'normal' flu .....

https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.co...41-7015-10-162

Chosun
Although this study is based on influenza, which is known to be a rapidly mutating virus. Coronaviruses generally don't mutate as much, so the same pattern may not occur with this current pandemic.
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Old Yesterday, 23:23   #381
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For those who still believe lockdowns have no effect (and the earth is flat):

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb9789
The Meunier paper cited previously did not analyze Germany in detail but the general trend seemed similar to the other countries it focused on (UK, France, Italy, Spain), showing no discontinuity in reproduction number etc. I presume you are in no position to explain the disagreement in results? Any country would of course like to see this magical reduction in spreading rate during the first week of lockdown, but it hasn't been obvious elsewhere.

Moreover this study's illustration of inadequacy of milder measures that were not actually employed long enough to find out is pure statistical inference, modeled guesses from the sort of experts who told us the US would see over two million deaths and NYC would need 30,000 ventilators. For a more convincing result we would have to examine actual outcomes for a wider variety of countries and policies, like Sweden, and Brazil as Rafael keeps suggesting. The important question is, what degree will suffice. Some distancing must have begun voluntarily even before any restrictions were imposed -- and we see no effect of that in this study, do we? Just an instant decline beginning at day zero, complete in one week. How very neat.

And if you believe that, you had better stop sniping about "who believes the earth is flat"...

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Is there really anyone believing that beyond that one guy who keeps posting badly interpreted graphs?
I thought the fact that they were badly interpreted interesting and worth posting. Incidentally, our state health department has just (under pressure) started distinguishing deaths "with" and "from" COVID, reducing reported fatalities by 25-30%, so you can adjust those graphs accordingly.

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We should really not take the bait of "lockdowns don't work" and focus on the actual questions
"What level is needed" has been the question here all along; no one has advocated none. (This straw man has been around since the notorious Imperial College paper and just won't die, as it makes dismissing opposition so easy.) And the goal isn't merely avoiding COVID casualties but the welfare of society as a whole, including the economic and other costs of home confinement, shutting down "inessential" businesses, etc. (Yes I do tire of having to keep saying that, even as those costs keep rising beyond the imagination of those imposing them.)

Last edited by tenex : Today at 00:49.
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Old Today, 03:00   #382
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Quote:
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... The important question is, what degree will suffice.
-> and who ....

Quote:
Originally Posted by tenex View Post
I thought the fact that they were badly interpreted interesting and worth posting.


Quote:
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"What level is needed" has been the question here all along ....
-> and who ....





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Old Today, 06:46   #383
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Quote:
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For those who still believe lockdowns have no effect (and the earth is flat):

https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb9789

Hermann
Hermann,

I've found this to be a remarkably good study.

Ed
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Old Today, 08:17   #384
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Large parts of Germany weren't under lockdown. The very strict measures in Italy, Spain, France, Bavaria and the UK had a similar effect as the more moderate measures in Northrhine-Westphalia and the Netherlands.
So it is obvious that you MUST act, the question is how tough your acting must be.

Of course, all this was entirely unclear 2 months ago.

It would appear that allowing movement, but stopping large congregations (especially indoors, but also in stadiums/demonstrations) is enough to lead to a (slow!) return to low levels. Singing, shouting and sweating should be avoided at all cost: therefore churches, pubs, discos and gyms must remain closed.
People should actually be allowed to be out of their houses as much as possible: sitting indoors together increases the risk of infection.

Schools have reopened in various countries without leading to new outbreaks (for some reason, the Germans refuse to look across the border (Denmark, the Netherlands) to see what is going on there).
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Old Today, 08:21   #385
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People should actually be allowed to be out of their houses as much as possible: sitting indoors together increases the risk of infection.
Tell that to ... almost any government, where shit hit the fan. Because the obsession with people not going outside has been really universal. The talk of hygienists about being terrified from seeing people pass each other on the street.

How did this even happen? Why do we seem to have all the high posts in national epidemiology filled with people who have no idea what's important for the spread of the disease? To me it seems like the classic case "the person who worries the most gets to make the rules because they seem the most careful".
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Old Today, 09:03   #386
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Tell that to ... almost any government, where shit hit the fan. Because the obsession with people not going outside has been really universal.
Yes I fully agree, but see my caveat "Of course, all this was entirely unclear 2 months ago."
Also look at the discussions about returning to twitching elsewhere. But getting together in a big group is also a bad idea outside!
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Old Today, 09:42   #387
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Originally Posted by opisska View Post
Tell that to ... almost any government, where shit hit the fan. Because the obsession with people not going outside has been really universal. The talk of hygienists about being terrified from seeing people pass each other on the street.

How did this even happen? Why do we seem to have all the high posts in national epidemiology filled with people who have no idea what's important for the spread of the disease? To me it seems like the classic case "the person who worries the most gets to make the rules because they seem the most careful".
1. Going outside is of course the healthiest option but only where social distancing can be achieved and maintained, not big, sweaty crowds on beaches.

2. Isn't that sensible? Surely it's better to over rather than under react and end up with thousands more dead than there should have been.

I don't get all this criticism of over reaction at all, surely we should be prepared for the worst case scenario, if that doesn't happen, all good.
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