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Birds and Weather - 2018

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Old Tuesday 25th September 2018, 20:32   #151
Britseye
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Originally Posted by Steve Arlow View Post
Forecast for Northern Isles is westerlies up until the 8th October at least, and they are really coming from anywhere that would give us a glimmer of getting a yank.

Its looking depressingly poor for the rest of the autumn
If it's any consolation, Steve, the opposite end of the country (i.e. Scilly) is liable to be excruciating for the same period. We can only hope for an unexpected miracle to occur - or the best period of the year, last ten days of September, first two weeks of October might end up being a candidate for an historical worst-ever!
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Old Tuesday 25th September 2018, 21:39   #152
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Yep a moderate breeze forecast of 15mph should bring in a drift migrant ot two. Should be a Yellow browed warbler or two and offshore those skuas moving along the coast. Good luck.
More than just along the coast too, I suspect. Helpful conditions for overland skua movement between the Wash and the Bristol Channel. Might be worth inland patch watchers keeping an eye out.

Predicted winds stronger for N Kent so could be another good day there and along the Thames flyway/London reservoirs.

Small mercies, perhaps, but better than nothing.
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Old Wednesday 26th September 2018, 07:50   #153
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The forecast is for a brief period of decent NE winds, just on Friday for the SE & S coast
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Old Thursday 27th September 2018, 09:21   #154
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It is clearly nuts to look this far ahead, but the long term forecast is for a high over Scandinavia and a decent easterly airflow, from 10 Oct
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Old Thursday 27th September 2018, 13:56   #155
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Maybe the next few days of sunny, blue skies and light winds will brew up some big thermals over the continent and give some soaring birds a chance to hop the Channel? Eagles, kites, vultures, pelicans, storks, cranes?
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Old Thursday 27th September 2018, 14:37   #156
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Friday looks good. Brisk NE wind. You'll have a fab time
Friday 28 Sep? Forecast is for W / NW winds, not NE! Or are you meaning Friday a week later?
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Old Thursday 27th September 2018, 15:20   #157
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Nutcracker - for the SE & S coast only, it could be very good. Tomorrow & the weekend
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Old Thursday 27th September 2018, 15:33   #158
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Nutcracker - for the SE & S coast only, it could be very good. Tomorrow & the weekend
It was in response to a query about the east coast

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So if you had to spend a day on the east coast of england this week, which day you you pick,hoping for skuas/shearwaters
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Old Friday 28th September 2018, 13:11   #159
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It was in response to a query about the east coast
Hope tonyfenn got out to the Norfolk coast today as suggested with the Northeasterlies........"soft plumage petrel?" reported past Blakeney Point, per RBA.
And winds have been onshore from the N.E. all morning.

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Old Friday 28th September 2018, 18:48   #160
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Yes I did, had to settle for red/th divers (lots),bonxie, sooty,manxs, auks ( to far out for id) and plenty of gannets. Throw in wheatears and hen harrier for bonuses.
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Old Friday 28th September 2018, 19:00   #161
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It is clearly nuts to look this far ahead, but the long term forecast is for a high over Scandinavia and a decent easterly airflow, from 10 Oct
Sounds about right just as I go to Brazil.
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Old Friday 28th September 2018, 19:02   #162
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Sounds about right just as I go to Brazil.
Brazil will always be better than here. Fact!
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Old Friday 28th September 2018, 22:38   #163
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Brazil will always be better than here. Fact!
Done lots of global birding including Brazil. My weeks in Shetland in autumn looking for rare birds are the most enjoyable birding Ive ever done.
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Old Saturday 29th September 2018, 11:56   #164
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Agree, it's all down to different experiences. I saw more Asian species in numbers on one Beidaihe trip than I would see in a lifetime of birding Shetland and the U.K. East coast, but that doesn't diminish the thrill of seeing a vagrant here at home. Horses for courses.
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Old Saturday 29th September 2018, 12:35   #165
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A little less weather a little more bird action, please!

John (housebound by storm in birdless Shetland)
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Old Saturday 29th September 2018, 14:28   #166
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On the whole, the way I see it, for the time of year, it's just about the worst of possible weather scenarios right across the country at least for the forseeable. There may be a few local details here and there, that are good for somebody, but for the places I know best Shetland, Scilly, N-E Coast it's not too promising. It occurs to me with regards birds and weather, that roughly fifty percent is predictable and roughly fifty percent is random. I don't really know if anybody has attempted to do models for Yanks arriving in the Northern and Western Isles? I wonder if it's more random, than Scilly for example. Assuming for the moment it is, then my best guesses for the week would be a random Yank somewhere up there, or another eastern mega (as well as the unexpected Yellow-breasted Bunting) if the westerlies lessen in strength for a few hours. There could still be a Yank lurking on Scilly when this wind finally drops tomorrow, but with high pressure moving in ominously, giving an initial hit of south-easterlies (and sunshine ) I'm going to take a leaf out of Gastronaut's book and go for a wild card Arctic Warbler as my tip for the south-west
Agree that it looks like a bag of rubbish for the whole country this week, but some of us did predict a good Sibe on Shetland last week, i just got the species and exact location wrong... ;-)

In my experience, the Yanks on Shetland turn up in easterly quarter winds. Whether that's just a coincidence of them popping up after a few days of rest or they do actually arrive in easterlies, who knows. Personally i think they are birds that have hit Norway and then get drifted back. Basically, this week is not looking good
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Old Saturday 29th September 2018, 14:39   #167
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Still a week away so likely to change but could this be a glimmer of hope for birders in the northern isles.

South East winds banking to East winds for Saturday 6th October. Granted its off a low from out of the west but it catches southern Norway where there appears to be a little light wind and that could be good news; similar a few years ago and here on Fair Isle at least we got a few decent eastern birds including a PGTips.

Straws and the clutching of....
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Old Saturday 29th September 2018, 17:37   #168
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I was due to arrive on Shetland tomorrow for a week but after looking at the weather forecast Ive postponed to arrive on 11th. Could be genius ...... or?
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Old Sunday 30th September 2018, 16:18   #169
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Out of nowhere how does a Brown Shrike turn up on mainland England? As Britseye said, 50% trying to put together an outlook using weather patterns, trends and historical records and 50% luck.
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Old Sunday 30th September 2018, 16:58   #170
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On Strong Westerlies a Brown shrike in Cornwall for 2nd day (apparently),that flies in the face of logic (pun intended)...
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Old Sunday 30th September 2018, 17:00   #171
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Out of nowhere how does a Brown Shrike turn up on mainland England? As Britseye said, 50% trying to put together an outlook using weather patterns, trends and historical records and 50% luck.
You must of posted as i did
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Old Sunday 30th September 2018, 20:47   #172
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On Strong Westerlies a Brown shrike in Cornwall for 2nd day (apparently),that flies in the face of logic (pun intended)...
Been easterly most of the week and this bird is a real skulker. Could have been there for days without being found, it's a seldom covered area.
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Old Sunday 30th September 2018, 21:48   #173
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Out of nowhere how does a Brown Shrike turn up on mainland England? As Britseye said, 50% trying to put together an outlook using weather patterns, trends and historical records and 50% luck.
Been high pressure coming and going over the English mainland and near continent for a while, its actually surprising there hasn't been a bit more. No real sign of things changing for the better further north sadly
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Old Sunday 30th September 2018, 23:46   #174
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A grand total of 5 Red-breasted Flys reported on RBA in September, all in the first 8 days of the month - must be some kind of record
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Old Monday 1st October 2018, 10:03   #175
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Well, there's a NE breeze briefly running down Norway Tue/Wed this week. I guess some birds might sneak across the water to Shetland ...

This weather pattern is well & truly locked in, as was the hot early summer. Presumably both are consequences of the N polar ice cap melting

PS - keep an eye on the bottom left of the Met Office SPC - there's an odd tropical storm "Leslie" brewing that could accelerate this way mid next week

Last edited by John Watson : Monday 1st October 2018 at 10:07.
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