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Nikon FF (and DX) Mirrorless rumours/ announcements

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Old Thursday 4th July 2019, 01:43   #251
Chosun Juan
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We can lock in a DSLR D6. That should be announced at the end of the year, or first thing next year (though I think that's a bit late) , that leaves precious little time for the Pro's to familiarize themselves and mentally tick off the confidence box ready for the Olympics.

I think those total numbers figures per model in my couple above post are quite revealing. There must be a lot of Pro's still happily earning a living from their D4 that didn't feel the need (or could justify the cost benefit analysis) for a D5 upgrade. Will the D6 capture these folks? Maybe. I still think there are possible goodies that the D6 'could have' that it won't get at the initial release. I'm expecting evolution rather than revolution. They may save those goodies for ~3 odd years down the track for a mid-life and last hurrah D6S upgrade.

I suppose we will soon (in the next year or so) see whether the 'little brother' DSLR D500S (or whatever they call it) also follows on from the D6, just like the D5/D500 duo did. It will be interesting

I think this buys Nikon quite a bit of time to carefully and successfully design the Pro Mirrorless FF and DX offerings. Remember - no-one as of yet has come out with a Pro Mirrorless form factor ergonomics and size wise (Panasonic may argue that they jumped straight to it with their S1/S1R). Getting this and the UI right is going to be critical - look at all the flak the Sony a9 cops and the non-pro Canon R did too for its weird operating departure.

Also, Nikon needs the next generation lightweight long super telephotos in native Z mount - otherwise really what's the point? Adapted lens seem to work well for Nikon but they don't take full advantage of all of the benefits the Z mount offers in terms of better AF motor control and accuracy.

Also what's becoming another bit of a peeve for me, is that we are seeing some nice lens design advances and innovations and performance pickups at the Mirrorless wide end, but ..... Everything from say the 70-200 (Canon excepted) and longer seems to be merely just sticking a tube and built-in Mirrorless mount onto the end of existing lens designs. There are no inherent length or weight reduction benefits being offered. This is budget stuff - even for the supposedly 'Pro' glass. This is not really going to convert the Smartphone hordes to the field of dreams (excellent PF and DO lenses notwithstanding - assuming they also get some nice native Mirrorless mount versions).


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Originally Posted by marcsantacurz View Post
I do wonder what Nikon will do for a DX mirrorless lens. Will it still be a Z mount? I assume so. But will they make DX Z while trying to catch up on full frame. Or will they do a DX mirrorless with F mount for the existing DX lens lineup?

Marc
Well DX Mirrorless for Nikon (and to a lesser extent Canon) is the biggie isn't it ! What to do, what to do, what to do ...... ??

People go DX for 2, possibly 3 reasons:-
1. Reach.
No substitute, Nikon will need the Z mount to offer native compatibility with the long FF super telephotos. Any such future 'Mirrorless D500' would need to be Z mount.
A very nice system could be made with some nicely purpose designed DX Mirrorless Z lenses, such as a version of the excellent 16-80 f2.8-f4, and offering some 'S line' DX very fast (I'm thinking f1.4) wide primes - say a 16mm and a 24mm. Longer than that just use the excellent FF Z glass. There's the FF f4 14-30mm which would give eq 21-45mm, and they would only need a DX dedicated fast ultra wide zoom of say f2.8 (f2?) 8-20, or 8-24, or even 8-28, giving from eq 12mm up.

2. Light weight /smaller size.
This is where the Canon EOS-M is winning. It allows the design of compact, lightweight, well performing systems. Even though there is no real compatibility with the full frame R, I still think it is not the drawback many make it out to be at the entry-consumer level.
Sony trumpets their single mount solution - but is it just an all round compromise ? Sales of EOS-M say Canon has got it right.
The big question is does Nikon follow suit ?? or forge it's own unique path?
* Does it merely make the entry/consumer level DX Mirror less with a built-in F mount allowing instantaneous kits up and running? but without fully capitalizing on the size reduction (mirror box elimination) benefits .....?
** Does it use the large Z mount and cop a slight size and weight penalty, but offering excellent wide angle design possibilities, and complete compatibility and migration between DX and FF. There's a pretty good case for this I think.
*** Or does Nikon do something completely out of the box with a completely new DX Mirrorless mount - though a very very clever one (ie slightly smaller throat diameter AND slightly shorter FFL [if this is possible] - this would allow Z mount FF lenses to be adapted via an ultrathin fully functional adapter plate - Techart style).

I actually think this strategy has some legs that could offer the best of all possible worlds and cover entry/consumer/prosumer levels. It could be a real winner. DX customers using fully functional FF Z glass via full benefit Mirrorless adapter, could use that glass natively on any future FF Z body. Nikon could do a lot of busine$$$$$$.

The only real drawback would be the amount of time to fully flesh out the lens range, though Nikon could get up and running immediately with a range of no drawback adapters (as the FTZ seems to be - mostly positive press there). Bundling these essential adapters free or via promotion would also be critical.

If I'm Nikon CEO this is the sort of move I think I would make. It would allow third party lens designers to natively supply with very minor modification to existing designs. It could also offer unmatched competitive advantages. Will they do it - who knows? :)

3. Cost.
The third reason people go DX is cost. Pure and simple. It's why the D3xxx and D5xxx have been such winners. Such Cost advantages could be retained no matter which DX design option Nikon goes with. Profitability should increase too given the lower Mirrorless Bill of Materials cost base.

The question ultimately becomes - which field of dreams does Nikon build so that the most paying fans come? I hope they go the 'clever' solution ...... that would shake the industry a bit - all the advantages of Canon's EOS-M yet at the same time all the 'effective' compatibility and format mobility of the Sony FE. Win-win.

Interesting times !




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Old Thursday 4th July 2019, 10:34   #252
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Talking Lol !

Some folks on the interwebs seem to be taking news of Nikon not renewing their best DSLR APS-C camera the D500 very hard ...... as it's very hard to understand at this stage. I hope those rumours are wrong - or Nikon makes a Slayer Mirrorless version in the blink of an eye with a full set of native light weight super telephotos (does not seem likely).

This is just too funny not to post: Reggie Cofera (day ago)

"Dear Nikon,

When I die will you please send 6 of your top executives to my funeral to lower my casket? That way I can rest peacefully knowing it will be the last time you will ever let me down."







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Old Thursday 4th July 2019, 18:58   #253
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On the no DSLR d500 successor. It could be Nikon looks at it like this: there will be no dslr competition for the d500, even it it ages another few years. Canon's not doing it, unless the 90d turns out much better than some fear. Sony's mirrorless. So the d500 will stay tops DX even if they do nothing.

For the DX mirrorless, I think doing them with a F mount makes the most sense, at least in the beginning. I'm sure Nikon could find a way to auto-negotiate the F-mount communications to make it go faster, if they really needed to, but for the majority of DX shooters (price & weight folks), it won't matter.

Whatever they do, Nikon need to give certainty that it's a good investment. There's too many choices and people know that some will die out or be dead ends and hesitate. Personally, I have the 24-70 f/4 S with the Z7, as I didn't have that zoom range on F mount. But I'm not buying any more Z lenses until I know Nikon can make sports and action work better.
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Old Thursday 4th July 2019, 23:10   #254
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Originally Posted by marcsantacurz View Post
On the no DSLR d500 successor. It could be Nikon looks at it like this: there will be no dslr competition for the d500, even it it ages another few years. Canon's not doing it, unless the 90d turns out much better than some fear. Sony's mirrorless. So the d500 will stay tops DX even if they do nothing.

For the DX mirrorless, I think doing them with a F mount makes the most sense, at least in the beginning. I'm sure Nikon could find a way to auto-negotiate the F-mount communications to make it go faster, if they really needed to, but for the majority of DX shooters (price & weight folks), it won't matter.

Whatever they do, Nikon need to give certainty that it's a good investment. There's too many choices and people know that some will die out or be dead ends and hesitate. Personally, I have the 24-70 f/4 S with the Z7, as I didn't have that zoom range on F mount. But I'm not buying any more Z lenses until I know Nikon can make sports and action work better.
Yes Marc - that's an excellent point on the D500. It's top of the pops and has no DSLR competitor anywhere near, or even Mirrorless competition at the moment (arguably). So I could see Nikon just being quite lazy and blaise' about the whole thing and resting on their laurels.

With the rumoured changes to the D6 though (stacked BSI sensor? , new dual processors and better AF, IBIS, 4K60p video, with dual CFe card slots, etc) such a 'twinning' as happened with the D5/D500 release, could see an upgraded D500 (call it D500S or whatever) untouchable for many many years by anything. Arguably it would never need much further significant development, and a minor mid-life upgrade (maybe a hybrid OVF?, etc) could buy half a dozen years life in total - the last DSLR hurrah.

Importantly, this would give Nikon at least a clear 3 years from now to nail the development and performance down of the succeeding Mirrorless D500. I've already said that the Z mount chooses itself for a Pro DX model like that - it needs native access to the next generation light weight super telephotos.

Really, unless a Mirrorless version outperforms an upgraded DSLR like that, then what's the point? - it's just trends and fashion at this stage. I think Nikon will need every one of those 3 years to get high speed Pro level Mirrorless focus, and EVF performance etc up to snuff based on the development pace we have seen so far.

I will come back to the other DX Mirrorless points you raised later (I always thought that was the most interesting and uncertain part right when I started this thread - but most folks have been too gun shy to comment on that aspect ..... even Nikon ! :)

For now though it's hi-ho hi-ho, it's off to work I go ..... :)




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Old Thursday 18th July 2019, 11:54   #255
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Nikon needs to beat Sony A7R IV to stay in the camera business, IMO.
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Old Thursday 18th July 2019, 12:33   #256
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Nikon needs to beat Sony A7R IV to stay in the camera business, IMO.
Maybe. On the other hand, with the pixel size of this beast, you are going to be behind on high iso performance.

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Old Thursday 18th July 2019, 13:50   #257
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Nikon needs to beat Sony A7R IV to stay in the camera business, IMO.
I think it's 'possible', but Nikon is going to have to upgrade the processing with a new capable generation and improve the algorithms/AI if they are to jump the Sony AF bar.

They should be able to capitalize on their ergonomics, UI, fast card and nice Z lenses so far (if rather limited range) strengths.

One of the biggest issues for Nikon will be that Sony is likely to keep the 61MP BSI sensor and 5.76M dot EVF to themselves for about a year ........ this will allow the a7R IV to establish itself nicely in the market and maybe even win a few converts.

The other thing Nikon will have to do is seriously pull its finger out with some fast lightweight native Z mount supertelephotos ...... Sony has a market ready lead here now with the lightweight 100-400 f5.6 GM, the 400 f2.8 GM, 600 f4 GM, and 200-600 f5.6 - f6.3 G. Nikon is looking decidedly a generation or two behind now .....

Sony has left the video door open slightly (probably for the potential a7S III , though tackling that is probably a job for the Z6) so that's another opportunity for Nikon.

With Nikon's efforts focused on the flagship D6 (and D500S too? rather required now that this new a7R IV does everything the D500 can do and maybe a bit more), it will be at least 12 months before we could expect a 'Z8'

I'm more comfortable waiting now with a few possible options - the Sony a7R IV shows that they are fair dinkum as a company. Nikon, and especially Canon are on notice.

Neither of the big 3 seems to comprehend actual usability and ease of work flow, but Sony and Canon (EF) have some very nice glass that does things that smartphones just can't do, so at least part of their market is safe, though I note that Canon has taken another big hit ...... a perceived lack of innovation will do that. At least Sony is keeping up the development pace and not (really) hobbling its products with artificial marketing niche protectionism (the worst of American smoke and mirrors management [and political leadership too for however long that will last] ).






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Old Thursday 18th July 2019, 23:18   #258
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It would be helpful to have a map of the corporate relationships in Japan, probably built around the banking networks involved.
Unfortunately, business in Japan is still very determined by these relationships, even though logic would suggest that Nikon should cozy up to TSMC or Samsung to fill the obvious gaps in their technology palette.
Similarly, it boggles the mind that Canon, which really should know better, still has no world class semiconductor partner. Does METI have no clue?
Photography is obviously melding increasingly with digital processing and software. Why is the entire Japanese industry, with the possible exception of Sony, in denial of the obvious?
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Old Friday 19th July 2019, 01:57   #259
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There are several Japanese corporations with photo/video portfolio you did not mention. These are not at this time the world leaders in volume, but are they exceptions to your complaint?

Niels
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Old Friday 19th July 2019, 04:24   #260
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Super high MP is not necessarily a desirable thing. You will see edge blurring from minor shakes unless you have good posture, high shutter speed, or good IBIS. No one really needs more than 24-ish MP unless you want really big enlargements or a lot of cropping. With the d850 (45MP), shot at 1/2500 or faster, I can get 4x-6x crops and still shoot at ISO 2000 - 6400. I'm not sure if a 61MP sensor will be that much better. It's a sqrt() relationship between MP and crop. a 4x crop on 45MP is 2.8MP, on 61MP it is 3.8MP. I don't think that's much difference.

We'll need to see how the AF and dynamic range come out.

Personally, I'm not rushing to order the A7rIV. I'll wait to see what all the Sony announcements are, and what Nikon might offer up in the next 3-4 months. I think the A4rIV is more for landscape & portrait, we'll see what their sports-oriented announcements are.

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Old Friday 19th July 2019, 04:49   #261
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Super high MP is not necessarily a desirable thing. You will see edge blurring from minor shakes unless you have good posture, high shutter speed, or good IBIS. No one really needs more than 24-ish MP unless you want really big enlargements or a lot of cropping. With the d850 (45MP), shot at 1/2500 or faster, I can get 4x-6x crops and still shoot at ISO 2000 - 6400. I'm not sure if a 61MP sensor will be that much better. It's a sqrt() relationship between MP and crop. a 4x crop on 45MP is 2.8MP, on 61MP it is 3.8MP. I don't think that's much difference.

We'll need to see how the AF and dynamic range come out.

Personally, I'm not rushing to order the A7rIV. I'll wait to see what all the Sony announcements are, and what Nikon might offer up in the next 3-4 months. I think the A4rIV is more for landscape & portrait, we'll see what their sports-oriented announcements are.

Marc
Marc, agree with what you've said in some cases, but with the high MP it has the makings of a great all-rounder, especially with the multiple formats (3:2, 16:9, 4:3, 1:1) offered. Birders always seem to be able to use more crop.

In APS-C crop mode it will be 26.2MP and offer a 3x bigger buffer - so ~200 compressed RAW, or ~100 uncompressed RAW shots ..... good enough for about 10 seconds of blazing away at 10fps. You also get virtually full AF point coverage across the crop frame. All that, and a pixel shift landscape, or small sized low light /walkaround camera too.

This gives me great hope that the Nikon 'Z8' (my feeling is at least 12 months away - after the Olympics) which would use the same sensor and essentially be the same thing will be the one. I really like the ready info accessibility of a top plate LCD display, so I will wait to see how each of these feel in the hand .... and also what lenses filter through ....

Exciting times for photographers !




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Old Friday 19th July 2019, 05:04   #262
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In APS-C crop mode it will be 26.2MP and offer a 3x bigger buffer - so ~200 compressed RAW, or ~100 uncompressed RAW shots ..... good enough for about 10 seconds of blazing away at 10fps. You also get virtually full AF point coverage across the crop frame. All that, and a pixel shift landscape, or small sized low light /walkaround camera too.
Those numbers start getting into the realm of 'do not care' for me. 200 frame buffer? It is rare that I shoot more than 10 at a time. Maybe if they had XQD instead of SD, they wouldn't need such a buffer.

With slow lenses (5.6 - 6.3), I think better ISO performance is more important than MP for crop. I suspect that unless you are shooting at low ISO, you will lose the high MP benefit.

That all said, I think I'm wth Lloyd Chambers that Sony has won the MILC war. I'm just waiting to see what all the current round of offerings are over the next 6 months or so before deciding to jump ship (Nikon) to Sony.

I've been so close to pulling the A9 trigger over the last year, especially since they have had the $1000 off. But I ask myself, what is wrong with the d850, and the main answer is "it is not mirrorless" which really is not a reason. Sure, when I'm shooting tripod at lower SS, mirrorless would reduce vibration, or when I'm shooting the 800mm f/5.6 AI-s, mirrorless with IBIS makes a difference, but overall? Nope. Maybe the full-frame AF for BIF, but I get good enough results with 3D on the d850 to not sell all my Nikon gear and buy into Sony.

Come December, I might very well be a Sony boy and flood Craigslist or Ebay with Nikon gear.

Marc
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Old Friday 19th July 2019, 10:15   #263
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There are several Japanese corporations with photo/video portfolio you did not mention. These are not at this time the world leaders in volume, but are they exceptions to your complaint?

Niels
Sadly they are not, even Panasonic (Matsushita) is dependent on Tower Semiconductor, a scrappy small ($5B revenue) foundry. There is no Japanese semiconductor firm on par with Samsung or TSMC, even Sony is a niche player in that space. As optical imaging and computation are clearly becoming very intimately combined, this gap in capabilities is handicapping the entire industry.
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Old Saturday 3rd August 2019, 08:04   #264
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Z6/Z7 Firmware version 2.01 Released !

I don't know if this will put the Nikon Mirrorless AF in the Sony leagues overall, but should help a few situations:-
https://www.nikonrumors.co/nikon-z6-...2-01-released/




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Old Tuesday 6th August 2019, 14:30   #265
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Question Is This The Next Nikon Z APS-C Based Mirrorless Camera?

https://nikonrumors.com/2019/08/01/i...s-camera.aspx/

Looks good. This is the way I thought Nikon would proceed with the 'compact' body APS-C Mirrorless ...... basically the body is all mount with a grip tacked onto the side of it.

No drawbacks from going Z mount for APS-C then - it's all down to the lenses now.

I'd suggest the days of 18-55 and 55-200 lenses are gone. Who the heck wants to be changing kit level lenses out in the field. Just make a decent 16-200 f3.5-f5.6 lens. Make it sharp, compact, and light - CFRP is fine.




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Old Tuesday 6th August 2019, 14:53   #266
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I'd suggest the days of 18-55 and 55-200 lenses are gone. Who the heck wants to be changing kit level lenses out in the field. Just make a decent 16-200 f3.5-f5.6 lens. Make it sharp, compact, and light - CFRP is fine.


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The idea is spot on. Convenience really matters.
However, no one makes a sharp, compact and light zoom lens with even a 10x range, at least afaik. So 16-200 mm is asking a lot.
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Old Tuesday 6th August 2019, 22:04   #267
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Not trying to be argumentative but the 11.1x Nikon 18-200mm works really well with the D300, from handholdable fireworks in WDW to close bird shots and has done so for me for over ten years. A little barrel distortion at the wide end but still sharp. New designs should be even better now.
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Old Tuesday 6th August 2019, 23:45   #268
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Not trying to be argumentative but the 11.1x Nikon 18-200mm works really well with the D300, from handholdable fireworks in WDW to close bird shots and has done so for me for over ten years. A little barrel distortion at the wide end but still sharp. New designs should be even better now.
Excellent info.
I'm happy to stand corrected and hope that Nikon produces a worthy new successor design.
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Old Wednesday 7th August 2019, 13:54   #269
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I think there is a huge opportunity available to Nikon.

I think a Z mount 16-200mm f3.5-f5.6 should be able to be designed under 90mm length, and 450gms or under. That's around the size of the DX 55-200 f5.6 lens now. On Nikon's APS-C sensor this would give an improved equivalent focal range of 24mm - 300mm.

Important because cellphone schooled 'photographers' these days expect the wide end capabilities and would appreciate the top end zoom (which no smartphone is currently matching - topping out at 160mm).

Such a new standard kit lens would signify an important change.

It would actually meet what the market wants. Convenience and performance.

The two lens 'kit' approach is an outdated marketing ploy - it was concocted so that the consumer could 'feel' like a professional with a 'bag' of multiple lenses. The reality is that changing lenses in the field is full of risk - dust /moisture / etc on sensors and lens elements. It also takes time, is inconvenient, and requires extra baggage to be carted around (even if it is in a large pocket).

The inherent Z mount benefits and aspherical elements should mean sharpness and brightness across the frame, and suitably specced glass should keep CA in check. Any residual distortion (barrel , pincushion) could be taken care of computationally as many editing software programs now do. These lenses need to be designed to accommodate the higher resolution sensors of the future, and maximize computational photography benefits.

Merely rehashing the past won't do, such a change is needed, as is more convenience in transferring /sharing , processing photos.

Nikon is investing in the future, but the current Financials are pretty punishing https://nikonrumors.com/2019/08/06/n...-are-out.aspx/





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Old Wednesday 7th August 2019, 14:18   #270
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For comparison, panasonic makes a 14-140 mm F3.5-5.6 with built in stabilizer which with m4/3 sensor has field of view corresponding to 28-280. This weighs in at 265 g (0.58 lb) and has a length of 75 mm (2.95″) (all data from DPReview). It is about as sharp as a kit lens can be expected to be, and has been sold as such. By this I mean that the images are OK but that a pro lens with shorter zoom can be made to be sharper.

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Old Tuesday 13th August 2019, 06:43   #271
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Lightbulb Nikon Z8 Rumored Coming in Late 2019 to Early 2020

Just like the Sony a7R IV ..... only better ?

https://www.nikonrumors.co/nikon-z8-...-422-external/

Looks like this may be a little earlier than I first expected. It will be interesting to see which makes an appearance first - the Z8 or D6
I like the Nikon top LCD display - I only hope they can match it or exceed Sony in the AF and Eye-Tracking stakes ......





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Old Wednesday 14th August 2019, 21:01   #272
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Why not just update the Nikon 1 series as a small format camera. There are existing lenses that are pretty good. Update the body and the software and it would cover the "small format" market for mirrorless. All the things you can do with a 4/3 sensor you can do with a Nikon 1. The 70-300 lens for the Nikon 1 system is quite good - and an equivalent 200-810mm focal length.

The Z mount seems to work against a DX camera. The mount opening is so large you'll have a relatively large lens even for DX. You might as well go with FX with a broad lineup of lenses. And there is no chance Nikon will deploy yet another mount because it won't generate enough volume to justify lens development. Nikon is committed to the Z mount. There is a point where small enough is fine in that format.
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Old Wednesday 14th August 2019, 21:29   #273
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Originally Posted by ericbowles View Post
Why not just update the Nikon 1 series as a small format camera. There are existing lenses that are pretty good. Update the body and the software and it would cover the "small format" market for mirrorless. All the things you can do with a 4/3 sensor you can do with a Nikon 1. The 70-300 lens for the Nikon 1 system is quite good - and an equivalent 200-810mm focal length.
Agree entirely, Nikon has limited resources and really should not throw existing assets such as their Nikon 1 lenses away.
Of course, the 1 series body does need modernization, but that should not cost the earth. Only issue imho is where does Nikon get an affordable but first class sensor for it other than from Sony?
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Old Wednesday 14th August 2019, 23:56   #274
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Agree entirely, Nikon has limited resources and really should not throw existing assets such as their Nikon 1 lenses away.
Of course, the 1 series body does need modernization, but that should not cost the earth. Only issue imho is where does Nikon get an affordable but first class sensor for it other than from Sony?
Doesn't that already apply to the Nikon full frame bodies, so what is the difference?

Question is: how much does Nikon earn from a "1" lens if it is not already in stock? Do they have production facilities for that format anymore? If not, that would amount to throwing good money after bad money ...

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Old Thursday 15th August 2019, 05:00   #275
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Is there much of a market for a small sensor ILC? It seems like it's 24-200 P&S or superzoom bridge cameras.
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