Corona virus threat to birding (1 Viewer)

Oldnintheway · Mar 17, 2020

fugl said:
C'mon, man, be fair. IMPOTUS just “gave himself a perfect 10 out of 10 when asked how he would grade his response to the coronavirus pandemic” going on to say in his infantile phraseology: "It seems to me that if we do a really good job, we'll not only hold the death down to a level that is much lower than the other way, had we not done a good job. . .”. So, cool your jets, everything’s under control.

3

Difficult to comprehend how that got elected President.
We're all shut here also. I'm just across the Sound from Seattle. But shit's really gettin' serious in San Fran!
https://www.latimes.com/california/...bay-area-counties-ordered-to-shelter-in-place

Jeff Hopkins · Mar 17, 2020

Oldnintheway said:
3 Difficult to comprehend how that got elected President.

Racism and Putin. Same way Brexit happened.

Chosun Juan · Mar 17, 2020

Jeff hopkins said:
Racism and Putin. Same way Brexit happened.

Chuck in a fair amount of hubris and incompetence from the other side too ..... actually, the fact that you have 'sides' is the biggest problem (but there's a whole thread dedicated to ignoring insights like that

Besides, surely people have to take some responsibility for their own levels of intellegence ..... ?

Chosun :gh:

Chosun Juan · Mar 17, 2020

Latest WHO situation report 16th March 2020
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0316-sitrep-56-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9fda7db2_2

Can anyone point me to where I can see a decent source (constantly updated currently) new case wrt time graph for all countries ?
The ones I have seen show the US exponentially increasing at a greater rate than other countries (largely tracking the same shaped line), with a couple of countries showing better control and flatter curves ......

Chosun :gh:

Chosun Juan · Mar 17, 2020

QUESTION:

What % of people exposed to the virus actually contract it?
Is it 100%, 50%, 25%, 10%, 1%, 0.1%, or what ? :cat:
Any official data sources ?

Chosun :gh:

viator · Mar 17, 2020

Chosun Juan said:
QUESTION:

What % of people exposed to the virus actually contract it?
Is it 100%, 50%, 25%, 10%, 1%, 0.1%, or what ? :cat:
Any official data sources ?

Chosun :gh:

Since no one can say how many people have been exposed (other than via best guess models extrapolating from the number of people who show symptoms and test positive) any answer would be a guess.

viator · Mar 17, 2020

Chosun Juan said:
Latest WHO situation report 16th March 2020
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0316-sitrep-56-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9fda7db2_2

Can anyone point me to where I can see a decent source (constantly updated currently) new case wrt time graph for all countries ?
The ones I have seen show the US exponentially increasing at a greater rate than other countries (largely tracking the same shaped line), with a couple of countries showing better control and flatter curves ......

Chosun :gh:

Best I know of is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

You have constantly updated case numbers (daily and total) for cases, deaths and recovered. Cumulative graphs for the world plus graphs for some countries on time basis.

Andy Adcock · Mar 17, 2020

Jeff hopkins said:
Racism and Putin. Same way Brexit happened.

Be careful, you'll set me off!

Andy Adcock · Mar 17, 2020

Chosun Juan said:
Latest WHO situation report 16th March 2020
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0316-sitrep-56-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9fda7db2_2

Can anyone point me to where I can see a decent source (constantly updated currently) new case wrt time graph for all countries ?
The ones I have seen show the US exponentially increasing at a greater rate than other countries (largely tracking the same shaped line), with a couple of countries showing better control and flatter curves .....

Chosun :gh:

I think this is up to date

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sorry, same link as Viator

Andy Adcock · Mar 17, 2020

I wonder why Germany with over 7000 infections, has so few deaths, 17. Compare that to the UK with 1500 infections and 55 deaths?

viator · Mar 17, 2020

andyadcock said:
I wonder why Germany with over 7000 infections, has so few deaths, 17. Compare that to the UK with 1500 infections and 55 deaths?

Its not just the death rate, the numbers in critical condition also differ significantly (2 vs 20)

rosbifs · Mar 17, 2020

It also depends, although not exclusively, how many people have been tested and the ages of those infected....

Chosun Juan · Mar 17, 2020

viator said:
Best I know of is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

You have constantly updated case numbers (daily and total) for cases, deaths and recovered. Cumulative graphs for the world plus graphs for some countries on time basis.

andyadcock said:
I think this is up to date

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Sorry, same link as Viator

Yep, I've been onto that site already :t:

What I'm looking at is more the source data and up to date tracking of the case curves for each country all graphed on the one sheet - something like this: (scroll down)
https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracking-coronavirus-countries-and-without-travel-bans

This way you can compare the shape of each countrie's curves relative to each other and compare management strategies.

Most of the shapes are the same - there are a few that have flattened out below the pack, and then there is the US who is on a trajectory to punch a hole vertically through the pack !

It is interesting that Russia has only 93 cases listed and no fatalities ....... :cat:

Chosun :gh:

dantheman · Mar 17, 2020

Chosun Juan said:
Besides, surely people have to take some responsibility for their own levels of intellegence ..... ?

Chosun Juan said:
What I'm looking at is more the source data and up to date tracking of the case curves for each country all graphed on the one sheet - something like this: (scroll down)
https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/tracking-coronavirus-countries-and-without-travel-bans

It is interesting that Russia has only 93 cases listed and no fatalities .......

Looks to be a major failing in that article in proving it's point in that infection wouldn't have come from China - but other places!

Russia does seem low. Apparently they're building a second emergency hospital though.

(Recall a story early on of a suspected coronavirus suspect in N Korea being shot dead whilst trying to avoid quarantine.)

Chosun Juan · Mar 17, 2020

dantheman said:
Looks to be a major failing in that article in proving it's point in that infection wouldn't have come from China - but other places!

Russia does seem low. Apparently they're building a second emergency hospital though.

(Recall a story early on of a suspected coronavirus suspect in N Korea being shot dead whilst trying to avoid quarantine.)

I didn't read the article initially - only posted that because that graph is of the form that I am after.

I only just quickly skimmed through it and didn't see where they are saying that. Only that the data was compiled from John Hopkins University and WHO. They seemed to be saying that there are legal limits as to what restrictions can be placed and why.

Obviously, once the transmission cat is out of the bag globally, vectors can come from anywhere, not just the initial source. :cat:

Chosun :gh:

dantheman · Mar 17, 2020

Chosun Juan said:
I didn't read the article initially - only posted that because that graph is of the form that I am after.

I only just quickly skimmed through it and didn't see where they are saying that. Only that the data was compiled from John Hopkins University and WHO. They seemed to be saying that there are legal limits as to what restrictions can be placed and why.

Obviously, once the transmission cat is out of the bag globally, vectors can come from anywhere, not just the initial source. :cat:

Haven't seen any such, sorry. And, yes, guessed you were only including it as an example - I'm assuming it was just some poor 'science/education' anti-China sentiment US website blah.

However this is pretty relevant -

https://twitter.com/amdar1ing/status/1237880129575157760

Jeff Hopkins · Mar 17, 2020

andyadcock said:
Be careful, you'll set me off!

After I wrote it, I thought "Andy deserves this with the way he's been dissing America." o

Tee hee.

Xenospiza · Mar 17, 2020

andyadcock said:
I wonder why Germany with over 7000 infections, has so few deaths, 17. Compare that to the UK with 1500 infections and 55 deaths?

There's been a lot of testing in Germany, as there were some big early outbreaks. So I guess at the moment Germany gives the best impression of how deadly it really is.

And indeed the ages involved may also play a role.
The early German outbreaks were linked to Carnival celebrations (where lots of mostly younger people come together to drink, dance and exchange bodily fluids).
In the Netherlands, about 40% of critically ill patients is under 50. Clearly linked to Carnival (the catholic south is hardest hit). Deaths have only occurred from 59 up thusfar.

Jeff Hopkins · Mar 17, 2020

An interesting article from a statistician's point of view here.

Science, not fear.

opisska · Mar 17, 2020

Xenospiza said:
There's been a lot of testing in Germany, as there were some big early outbreaks. So I guess at the moment Germany gives the best impression of how deadly it really is.

Several things here. First yes, the death rate might be heavily influenced by testing. It can however also be influenced by the slope of the exponential. And these things can interplay to all directions. Basically you have infections, then you have, with a lag, detections, then you have, with another lag, deaths. So if you were to know the amount of infected right now, the amount of deaths right now would grossly underestimate the lethality, because many of the people infected now haven't died yet and the people who have died got infected at a moment when there were much less infected people. However with the lag between infection and detection, this can compensate, or even overcompensate.

Also note that for small amount of deaths there can be a lot of random fluctuations. Even if everything else was perfectly controlled, then for any events of 10 or 20 occurrences, the Poissonian error is absolutely brutal (1 sigma is square root of N, so 20 deaths isn't even 5 sigma from zero). Poissonian errors are the reason why Diamond Princess will never be the ultimate source on mortality even if you could look aside from the weird age structure - the 7 deaths have a standard deviation of at least 2.5 just by pure chance. Then there are more fluctuations induced by different ages and medical conditions and whatnot...

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