Ten Spoonbills fledge at Holkham NNR (1 Viewer)

Stop destroying habitats full stop, as far as I'm concerned. It's amazing how so many people cannot see the link between buggering up the world and their own very existance. As for biofuels I think the biggest failing is that of driving up the price of those crops ( usually staples like maize ) to such an extent that large areas of the world could be heading towards economically induced famine. That includes such places as Mexico ( right across the border from the US - think about it! ) and sub-saharan Africa.
Chris

Just to satisfy those of you who like to think locally rather than globally from now on I will refer to global warming as

Global warming including the U.K. which for now is warmer than it has been in the recent past but if something happens to Atlantic currents may lose the warming effect of the gulf stream (this is the term I understand although technically it appears that it should be called the North Atlantic Drift Current) and on average becomes colder than it is now unless by that time that happens the overall effects of global warming means that even places like Hudson's Bay which are on the same line of latitude as the U.K. and still warmer now than it has been in the recent past but is colder currently than the U.K. has become significantly warmer than it is now so that overall the average temperatures in the U.K. remain higher than they did at the start of the 20th century and therefore it would still be possible to claim that the U.K. is warmer due to global warming although not as warm as it would have been because the gulf stream stopped. Although it is possible though I haven't seen this suggested that the overall effects of warming up the oceans despite the cooling effects of melt water mean that a range of new currents are set up that bring up warm water from the south maintaining the overall warming oceanic effects that means that western Britain has had a more temperate climate than continental Europe in which case despite places like Hudson Bay being warmer than they used to be they are still not as warm as the U.k. (on average).

John o'Sullivan said:

Global warming including the U.K. which for now is warmer than it has been in the recent past but if something happens to Atlantic currents may lose the warming effect of the gulf stream (this is the term I understand although technically it appears that it should be called the North Atlantic Drift Current) and on average becomes colder than it is now unless by that time that happens the overall effects of global warming means that even places like Hudson's Bay which are on the same line of latitude as the U.K. and still warmer now than it has been in the recent past but is colder currently than the U.K. has become significantly warmer than it is now so that overall the average temperatures in the U.K. remain higher than they did at the start of the 20th century and therefore it would still be possible to claim that the U.K. is warmer due to global warming although not as warm as it would have been because the gulf stream stopped. Although it is possible though I haven't seen this suggested that the overall effects of warming up the oceans despite the cooling effects of melt water mean that a range of new currents are set up that bring up warm water from the south maintaining the overall warming oceanic effects that means that western Britain has had a more temperate climate than continental Europe in which case despite places like Hudson Bay being warmer than they used to be they are still not as warm as the U.k. (on average).

Click to expand...

Can we refer to this as something a bit shorter, say 'Global climate change' ...?

I know that freak weather events have always happened (hence they aren't really freak), isn't the evidence mounting that actually these extreme events are becoming more widespread and regular, or is it just more reporting in this day and age?

(And yes, Spoonbills are nice lol )

Amarillo

Been looking at BBR breeding birds for 2006. For the first time the following three species were considered. A Black Kite paired with a Red Kite M. milvus fledged two young in Highland, and a hooting male Scops Owl took up residence in Oxfordshire. There were two well-separated male Iberian Chiffchaffs on territory, in Devon and Lothian, but
no evidence of females at either site.

So there we are the first of the Black kites.

More Ib chiffs this year as well. It is not pure co-incidence and probably quite a lot to do with global warming (see post 42 for full definition of this term) that all these traditional southern species have increased in numbers over the last 20 years whilst at the same time numbers of redwings, fieldfares, common scoter, whimbrel etc have declined.

John o'Sullivan said:

Thanks to global warming the Russians aren't exporting any wheat this year. One of the countries they used to export to is Egypt.

Click to expand...

One year previous, Russia produced its highest grain crop for 20 years and Ukraine its largest crop on record. I think 'used to export' is out of place here - they have merely had a bad crop this one year.

John o'Sullivan said:

Amarillo

Been looking at BBR breeding birds for 2006. For the first time the following three species were considered. A Black Kite paired with a Red Kite M. milvus fledged two young in Highland, and a hooting male Scops Owl took up residence in Oxfordshire. There were two well-separated male Iberian Chiffchaffs on territory, in Devon and Lothian, but
no evidence of females at either site.

So there we are the first of the Black kites.

More Ib chiffs this year as well. It is not pure co-incidence and probably quite a lot to do with global warming (see post 42 for full definition of this term) that all these traditional southern species have increased in numbers over the last 20 years whilst at the same time numbers of redwings, fieldfares, common scoter, whimbrel etc have declined.

Click to expand...

I struggle to see how a handful of overshoot migrants makes much of anything. The Black Kite has been around years in Scotland in a mixed pairing and there has been no sign in the RBBP reports of further inroads by this species. On the flip side Ospreys and White-tailed Eagles are penetrating south. Does this mean that its getting colder up north?

Two things with Ibe Chiffchaff 1)its elavation to specific status has led to increased interest in it and thus more people are aware that a funny sounding chiffer may well be Iberian & 2) the status of its range isnt well established, especially in western France. A handful of overshoots surely should be expected each year and increased awareness can only increase the number observed. I tend to think that they are a likely indicator of climate change but the lack of complete data set makes them a difficult example.

Scops Owl has held territory a couple of times before the Oxon example. Cant think that a lone migrant 200 miles north of its range indicates a lot.

Your examples of northern breeding species are more interesting although with regard the thrushes they have always been sporadic in nature of their breeding distribution with Redwing breeding from Kent to northern Scotland, both species peaked in the 1970s. Despite this they have both fallen away dramaticly. I dont know enough about the reasons for range retreat in Common Scoter or Whimbrel but both seem likely candidates for range depletion due to climate change although habitat developmetn may well play some part. Strangely other northern waders are faring better at the moment eg Wood & Green Sandpiper. Other tenuous northern waders seem to be hanging on after appearing in the 1970s - Purple Sandpiper & Temminck's Stint. Snow Bunting have increased. So a story of losses and gains.

Isurus said:

moved north due to global warming? correlation does not equal causation; don't forget spoonbill were uk residents up to the 1600s when they were hunted out.

Click to expand...

Well put!..totaly agree.:t:

It is about overall trends not individual bits of data.

The example of the Russian drought and consequent fires and loss of harvest this year has to be looked at in comparison with the droughts and other evidence elsewhere in the world. The defra report is very aware of the possible effects of global warming (see post 42 for a full explanation of this term) on the security of world food sources.

Overall in the last few decades there has been very significant changes in the distribution of rarer breeding birds in the u.k. Study the reports from the BBRC, the data is very clear. Some of the rarer species are now not rare at all.

Some of the birds with a more southern/central distribution are pouring north and their numbers are increasing massively. Firecrests, LRP, Cettis warbler etc etc etc. Keep going through the data and the picture is very clear.

And Firecrests and LRP's are recent arrivals too.

We also have the establishing most recent new arrivals and the beginning of the next wave which are the changing patterns of overshoots and occasional breeding records.

Some of the northern species are hanging on, but none of them are expanding in the way the southern species are.

It is evolution in action. Some species succeeding some failing (check out the data for Ruff)

If we look at your example of Ospreys they are a more Central/northern European species and the situation with White tailed eagles is complicated by the fact they are re-introduced rather than expanding under their own steam.

The authors of the reports also are very clear making regular comments about next arrival from the south such as

"There was a long gap between the nesting by three pairs of
European Bee-eaters in Sussex in 1955 (Brown & Grice 2005) and the breeding attempts in Durham
and Yorkshire in 2002 (Ogilvie et al. 2004). A third recent attempt, in Herefordshire in 2005 (Holling et
al. 2008), and now this record in 2006, suggests that breeding Bee-eaters may become more frequent".

I know I've made this comment before but like with DDT birds are an obvious indicator of change. Going back 50 odd years and looking at the changing patterns it is frankly irrefutable to claim there is not a northern shift in population distribution.

Even if we accept the argument that

"correlation does not equal causation; don't forget spoonbill were uk residents up to the 1600s when they were hunted out". (or left due to hunting and the effects of the medieval cold spell)

Why are they returning now? Why is the European population expanding to the extent that it is spilling over into Britain? Why is this happening at the same time as global warming (see post 42 for full explanation of this term).

Climatalogical conditions are evolutionary vital (in combination with a number of other factors) to a species success or not.

As I believe in data not impressions/opinion/firmly held belief I've had a quick look at 1955 to see if there was any correlation between climate and the past attempt by Bee-eaters to breed.

The highest number of sunshine hours recorded in Wales was set that year,

I got this from a review of a Bill patterson book

In this magical extract, he vividly describes the dusty, scorching hot summer of 1955

and I also saw a discussion page from a Chicago internet forum discussing which was the most unpleasant the extremely hot summer of 1955 or the one in 1988.

It seems like it was hot,hot,hot.

spoonbills did not leave britain in the 1600s. They were extirpated. Nothing to do with climate, just henry viii's dinner table. Birds britannica is guite good on this.

John o'Sullivan said:

... the situation with White tailed eagles is complicated by the fact they are re-introduced rather than expanding under their own steam...

Click to expand...

Only in the British context. There is massive and rapid southerly/westerly unaided expansion of this species on the European continent, to a large part reoccupying former haunts.

Hotspur said:

spoonbills did not leave britain in the 1600s. They were extirpated. Nothing to do with climate, just henry viii's dinner table. Birds britannica is guite good on this.

Click to expand...

They also used to eat Great Bustards.

Why is no-one quoting this to me.

The report, A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds, maps potential change in distribution of all the continent's regularly occurring nesting birds against a temperature rise of 3C.

The RSPB today called for urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions to avoid a 'calamitous' impact on birds.

A new report published today by the conservation charity shows that if climate change is not slowed down, the potential distribution of average bird species by the end of this century will shift nearly 342 miles (550km) to the north-east – equivalent to the distance from Plymouth to Newcastle.

The report, A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds, maps potential change in distribution of all the continent's regularly occurring nesting birds against a temperature rise of 3C.

It shows that the average European bird's distribution will be reduced in size by 20%, and its future range will overlap its current by only 40%. Three-quarters of all Europe's nesting birds are likely to suffer declines in range, according to the report, published as a partnership between the RSPB, Durham and Cambridge universities, Lynx, BirdLife International and the European Bird Census council.

Some species, including the black-throated diver, snow bunting, capercaillie and dotterel, could be left with few areas of suitable climate in the UK.

Without action to protect populations now and ensure that they can find suitable habitats in future, this could significantly increase their risk of extinction, the report warns. Efforts must be increased to maintain existing protected areas and to extend their coverage in the future to accommodate changes in potential distributions.

Follow this link for the full article

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Climate+change+threatening+bird+species,+RSPB+says-a01611523126

I haven't read the report only the article.

John o'Sullivan said:

Why is no-one quoting this to me.

Click to expand...

Because its irrelevant

The report outlines predictions for what might happen if temperatures warm by 3 degrees

Temperatures haven't risen by 3 degrees and spoonbills aren't a species requiring a rise of 3 degrees!

Furthermore a lot of environmental research is pretty dodgy. I remember when at Uni many moons ago being told by a visiting speaker that an influential research article written about deforestation in Nepal in the mid '80s described supposed deforestation rates in the country that would have left it, as he put it "bald as a coot" within just a few years. Whilst deforestation is clearly an issue there, it is equally clear that 25 years on, the country still has forests.

Here in Aus, highly influential environmentalists repeatedly describe the Koala as an endangered species. It isn't. It is increasing it's range and it's numbers and as a species eating itself out of house and home.

I take all environmental research articles with a pinch of salt as many are clearly biased or just simply bad research (as is much nursing research, some of which is awful.... I'm a nurse btw). There is excellent research going on as well of course, but separating it from the dross can be tricky at times.

just to calrify

"the projections are based on the effects of a likely 3C increase in average global temperatures above pre-industrial levels"

So we are already warmer than pre-industrial levels (any body able to enlighten me as to how much warmer) and already we are able to see the effects this is having on the distribution of bird species.

Amarillo is correct "Temperatures haven't risen by 3 degrees and spoonbills aren't a species requiring a rise of 3 degrees!"

It appears they and many other species only need the rise that we have already experienced to change/begin to change distribution.

Of course as global warming continues and temperatures continue to rise, then more species will change distribution broadly in line with the esteemed authors and supporters of the report.

I found this on uk.gov

The 1990s was the warmest decade in central England since records began in the
1660s. Summer heatwaves are now happening more frequently and in winter there are fewer frosts.

Globally, over the past century, the average temperature of the atmosphere near the earth’s surface has risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius. Eleven of the 12 hottest years on record occurred between 1995 and 2006.

So there we 2.26 degrees to go. Very small change in average global temperatures very big changes in species distribution.

John o'Sullivan said:

just to calrify

It appears they and many other species only need the rise that we have already experienced to change/begin to change distribution.

Click to expand...

No. No it doesn't. Again you're implying a correlation = causation. For the reasons already elucidated (growing dutch population, increase habitat, irrelevance of temperature on past/other spoonbill populations) we cannot attribute the growth to temperature change.

John o'Sullivan said:

Summer heatwaves are now happening more frequently and in winter there are fewer frosts.

Click to expand...

Yippee, better suntans all round, fewer cold toes :t:

John o'Sullivan said:

I found this on uk.gov

The 1990s was the warmest decade in central England since records began in the
1660s. Summer heatwaves are now happening more frequently and in winter there are fewer frosts.

Globally, over the past century, the average temperature of the atmosphere near the earth’s surface has risen by 0.74 degrees Celsius. Eleven of the 12 hottest years on record occurred between 1995 and 2006.

So there we 2.26 degrees to go. Very small change in average global temperatures very big changes in species distribution.

Click to expand...

John I hate to say it but you have a VERY tenuous arguement about a BRITISH BIRD* being an indicator of global warming and using someone who reads the independent ot predict the future is pretty dodgy. If i remember right did that report not suggets thats Scotsbill are going to move to iceland? And an increase of 3 degrees is a big change, not something we have experienced.

*bred in britain in historical times extensively.