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Nikon Nikkor 600mm f/5.6 PF Lens: Rumoured Coming This Summer??

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Old Friday 31st May 2019, 08:09   #1
Chosun Juan
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Question Nikon Nikkor 600mm f/5.6 PF Lens: Rumoured Coming This Summer??

I think this is the lens everybody is interested in !

Recent changes in the industry with declining overall numbers, a rationalization of existing DSLR lines and R&D, and a transition to Mirrorless with (so far) a FF weighting, among other developments, make the arrival? of this lens interesting.

Specifically, recent rumours seem to confirm the death of the Canon 7D (see the 7D MkIII thread). It seems that Pro DX DSLR product for Canon will be merged with upper end APS-C models to make the rumoured 90D DSLR. This places absolutely zero pressure on Nikon to upgrade their class leading D500.

I am less hopeful now that an upgraded D500S will follow the upcoming Pro FF DSLR flagship D6 to market in the same way that the D500 followed the D5. In fact, Nikon may merge the upper end Pro DX DSLR models in the same fashion that it seems Canon will do, in the form of a higher MP D7600 ???

I have no doubt that Pro DX cameras will re-emerge down the track in Mirrorless guise ...... but that could be years away when the supertelephotos finally migrate to native Mirrorless mounts.

So where does this leave the PF 600 f5.6 ??

We know from commentary that the demand for this lens would be reasonably strong. The 500mm version seems to offer great performance and just about everyone that has one is very happy. Nikon seems to have underestimated the demand for the 500mm version. That, and the 7 month lead time it takes to process the Phase Fresnel element, limited production capacity, along with rumoured glass quality supply problems is what has caused the massive delay and backlog for those who have placed orders for the PF 500 f5.6

Undoubtedly some customers waiting for the 600 have jumped ship to the 500, and I have an inkling that some of those in the 500 queue may very well jump back to the 600 if it were officially announced.

It seems like the optical design layout will be exactly the same. Therefore I would expect a 600mm version to just about point, handle and certainly perform as well as the 500. We know from the patent that the 600mm version will be 33cm long physically (to the image plane), and have a front element diameter of 107mm. As such it should only weigh about ~300g more. A ~1.75kg 600mm f5.6 would be a great unrivalled addition to the market :) With demand running strong for the USD3597 500mm version, I expect Nikon will push the cost of the PF 600mm f5.6 to USD4499 !

This rumour rehashes an anecdotal report from 3 months ago.
https://nikonrumors.com/2019/05/28/n...s-summer.aspx/
Rather than the next few months, I think we could easily add another year to the arrival of the 600 .....

I suppose the question then becomes will Nikon ditch the F mount for the 600 and just go straight to the Z mount ?? Most Z mount (and R mount for that matter) native designs seem to be mere rehashes of existing DSLR designs with virtual extension tubes added in-built to the lens body.

Please post any rumours, field tested prototype sightings, info from a friend of a friend, or just come along to shoot the breeze while we all wait !





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Old Wednesday 5th June 2019, 14:19   #2
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I seriously doubt they would release this summer. With them already unable to keep up with demand for the 500mm it would be stupid to release a 600mm to add to their already failing workforce.

It seems the only source of this being true is -some guy who's friend has it on good "authority" that they will announce it sometime this summer. Sounds like BS to me.
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Old Wednesday 5th June 2019, 16:50   #3
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I seriously doubt they would release this summer. With them already unable to keep up with demand for the 500mm it would be stupid to release a 600mm to add to their already failing workforce.

It seems the only source of this being true is -some guy who's friend has it on good "authority" that they will announce it sometime this summer. Sounds like BS to me.
Yes, I doubt this Summer too (which just started ! :)

The demand is readily there.
It's a business and manufacturing issue.

I think the returns are there to justify the infrastructure /process /personnel costs - it's a matter of how Nikon allocates scarce capital resources in a contracting market overall.

Of course, if they don't build it (desirable product) - no one's coming anyway ....

It pretty much means doubling the investment in PF production capability. The biggest bottleneck seems to be the PF element itself. 7 months lead time is a heck of a constraint to try and accommodate into the process. It also offers very little flexibility around movements in quantity. Hopefully they've learnt some good lessons from the 500mm experience.

I'd be very interested to compare this to a Tammy G2, and also a 600 f4. It really would address an area where Nikon now lags Canon - light weight superteles .....




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Old Thursday 6th June 2019, 01:31   #4
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I think Nikon has a much larger weight problem in the long lenses. The only two places they are competitive is the 500mm f/4e as Canon hasn't done their III version yet and the 500 f/5.6e vs Canon 400 f/4 DO II. In 400/2.8 and 600/4 Nikon is overweight by 1 kg. I guess they are also in the ballpark with the 800/5.6, being about the same weight as the Canon.

I would imagine that a Nikon 600/5.6e PF would be a cut above the Tammy 150-600g2 and slightly behind the 600/4. f/4 just has a lot of advantages over f/5.6, especially when used with a 1.4x TC. Number and placement of focus point, focus speed, 2x more light, etc.

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Old Thursday 6th June 2019, 08:44   #5
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I think Nikon has a much larger weight problem in the long lenses. The only two places they are competitive is the 500mm f/4e as Canon hasn't done their III version yet and the 500 f/5.6e vs Canon 400 f/4 DO II. In 400/2.8 and 600/4 Nikon is overweight by 1 kg. I guess they are also in the ballpark with the 800/5.6, being about the same weight as the Canon.

I would imagine that a Nikon 600/5.6e PF would be a cut above the Tammy 150-600g2 and slightly behind the 600/4. f/4 just has a lot of advantages over f/5.6, especially when used with a 1.4x TC. Number and placement of focus point, focus speed, 2x more light, etc.

Marc
At the moment - yes, Nikon is mostly (PF's notwithstanding) lagging Canon in the 1-800 Jenny stakes.

With changes in the industry, it will be interesting to see what happens here. Announcement of the Sony 600 f4 GM is imminent.

Rumours swirl that Canon will release the 500 f4, and 300 f2.8 in the Mirrorless 'R' mount. I wonder if it means these lightweight 'MkIII' versions debut here and never get updated for the EF mount?

While Nikon's 500 f4 for now weighs the same as Canon's version, I don't think that counts for very much of anything at all when Canon (and soon Sony) has a 600 f4 that is actually lighter and with more rearward weight bias.

Nikon's 300 f2.8 has been getting whooped for a loooong time weight wise, and there doesn't even seem to be rumours yet of a diet for the 5 & 600 f4's Ditto the 400 f2.8, and the very much needed 300 f2.8. We can only hope that changes with the prospect of the looming home turf Olympics next year

I could have lived with a Nikon 300 f2.8 + 2TC on a higher spec (D7200 and above) crop body, but not with the lens at just about ~3kg to start with !! Just over 2kg - yes - sign me up :)

I think the natural competitor to Canon's DO 400 f4 ISII lens is in fact the PF 600 f5.6 that is the subject of this thread. With a 1.4TC on the Canon you are looking at 560mm f5.6 v's 600 f5.6 ...... AND the Niki could be half a kilo or so lighter to boot - as well as cheaper :) I think they would sell like hotcakes !

The PF 500 f5.6 is said to compare very favorably with Nikon's 500 f4 supertele ...... I hope the 600mm versions are likewise hard to tell apart IQ-wise. That would be a handy step up over the Tammy G2, especially with a bit of a weight reduction thrown in. Shooting the PF 600 on a crop body would rarely need an added TC so it's likely win-win :)



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Old Thursday 6th June 2019, 17:28   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
Please post any rumours, field tested prototype sightings, info from a friend of a friend, or just come along to shoot the breeze while we all wait !
Reminds me of what a friend once told me, ages ago and long before the advent of the internet, with regard to rarities seen in Cornwall:

"Believe only half of what you see, and nothing of what you hear."

Seems like that applies to optics as well nowadays.

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Old Thursday 6th June 2019, 17:41   #7
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I do wonder how large the market is for this kind of gear.
The point and shoot crowd have been hived off by the small sensor superzooms, while the good but not great photo takers are happy with their larger sensor bridge cameras such as the Sony RX10IV.
The remainder are a mix of rich people with a photography hobby and a hard core of dedicated photographers. The latter generally are not rich....

So I'm skeptical of the prospects for this new 600mm PF. That said, this is Nikon, a firm that gave us the WX, a tour de force technically which addresses a minuscule market. As some French general once said about the charge of the Light Brigade: "C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre."

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Old Thursday 6th June 2019, 21:33   #8
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My understanding is Canon has done very well with the 400mm f/4 DO series, and that is around $7000. If Nikon can do the 600/5.6PF for $5k - $7k, I think it would sell well (if they can actually produce enough!). The $12k lenses (400/2.8, 500/4, 600/4) are getting out of the non-professional realm (who can depreciate the lens cost, at least in the US).

I doubt the P&S crowd has decreased the market size of these top-end lenses. Maybe some to the bridge shooters, but I'd like to see actual numbers on that. Sure, bridge eats away at the consumer and pro-sumer market, but I doubt much at the top-end. But I don't have any actual facts to back that up.

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Old Saturday 8th June 2019, 14:30   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marcsantacurz View Post
My understanding is Canon has done very well with the 400mm f/4 DO series, and that is around $7000. If Nikon can do the 600/5.6PF for $5k - $7k, I think it would sell well (if they can actually produce enough!). The $12k lenses (400/2.8, 500/4, 600/4) are getting out of the non-professional realm (who can depreciate the lens cost, at least in the US).

I doubt the P&S crowd has decreased the market size of these top-end lenses. Maybe some to the bridge shooters, but I'd like to see actual numbers on that. Sure, bridge eats away at the consumer and pro-sumer market, but I doubt much at the top-end. But I don't have any actual facts to back that up.

Marc
It is hard to get an accurate picture even for industry insiders with access to much more detailed pay for view raw data and reports. From what is publicly available it seems that the entry/mid level APS-C DSLR's (eg. Nikon D5600 and Canon equivalents) are still the volume leading sellers. Exactly the segment that is predicted to decline the most (though we have yet to see compelling superceding product in practice).

Canon has done much better with the MKII DO 400mm f4 even given it's relatively high cost.

If Nikon came in at ~$3999 - $4499 USD then I think they would do a roaring trade. This would represent fair extra materials and processing cost, and include a premium as well. It would still be ~3 the cost of near competitors - the Tammy G2 and the Niki 200-500. If it was priced higher (up around $5K-$7K) as you suggest, then that would be excessive profiteering that would kill demand.

That $5K-$7K level is where Nikon should be hurrying out the door a much needed lightweight (near 2 kilo) updated FL 300 f2.8 refractive lens.

With Sony about to dominate the press with the announcement of their 200-600 f?? and their papa bear halo 600mm f4 GM models, I sure do hope that Nikon brings this PF 600 f5.6 sooner rather than later ........




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Old Friday 14th June 2019, 05:23   #10
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Hoping your right about it being released this summer. That way I’ll be able to buy one by 2022.
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Old Friday 28th June 2019, 13:37   #11
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Unhappy

Summer (Nthn) is nearly half over, and ............ *crickets*






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