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How to cope with coronavirus

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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 08:41   #176
Deb Burhinus
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I am pretty sure the idea isn't to simply to delay the peak, it is to spread the cases out over a longer period of time so that the peak is lower and the load on health services at any one time is reduced

Lee
TBH I don’t think Opisska was saying that it was - for the same reason you state (check his earlier posts - there’s a lot of cross-purpose conversation!) It seems to me he’s arguing (as I was earlier in this thread) against a strategy of just ‘isolating’ the elderly while the rest of society gets a ‘mild’ bout of the virus (for herd immunity) which is what some people have been advocating/suggesting (for economic reasons mainly) and quite strongly in some cases (although not Andy). However, I see Opisska is agreeing the elderly should be self-isolating, but also other restrictions should remain along with testing etc etc as part of an overall strategy to protect the health care services and get on top of the outbreak - Andy isn’t saying anything vastly different from what I can make out. (Nor are you!) It is always harder when English isn’t the first language - while grammar can be fine, construction of sentences can face a language barrier and therefore true comprehension can sometimes be difficult to achieve.

I’m sure I will be corrected if I’ve misrepresented the arguments!
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 08:53   #177
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I am pretty sure the idea isn't to simply to delay the peak, it is to spread the cases out over a longer period of time so that the peak is lower and the load on health services at any one time is reduced.

The fact that this should also delay the peak until a warmer part of the year should also lower the peak if this virus reduces in activity in response to higher temperatures in the same way as influenza.

While we may well find out preparations have been far from perfect this strategy seems sensible and practical to me.

Lee
Exactly.
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 08:57   #178
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...A delay in the peak will allow much more preparation to be put in place, the aquisition of ventilators and provision of extra beds amnnd staff among other.
exactly

My understanding is ‘delaying the peak’ would mean keeping everyone in complete lockdown until you don’t and then there would be a high resurgence (peak) that has just moved in timing. Spreading the peak however, requires moderating restrictions in tandem with the health services ability to cope - not just preparation and staff - but also in response to rising cases/hospitalisations.
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 09:50   #179
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I was reacting to ideas like this:

Quote:

Given that, I think a third or 'middle way' would have been far better all round. This would have been (and possibly still could be) - (iii) Immediate lock down isolation for anyone say ~50-55 years or older (and those immuno-compromised or otherwise vulnerable) with strict hygiene standards and procedures in dealing with the 'outside' world (including one's own families) and services (including financial) focused in supporting that.

The rest of the world would be left to carry on normally (though hopefully with more care towards the environment and our fellow man). This would offer minimal risk of death (though infection would be rife) and rapidly achieve 'herd immunity'. Even cash seems an excellent way to transmit the virus - certain segments constantly exposed such as shopkeepers would need to take additional hygiene precautions (from what I have observed here this is already happening way ahead of official advice). I think this course of action would be better on all fronts.
"Lock down the elderly and let the others go on as usual". These ideas have been suggested in a varied amount of strength by several people in this thread. Andy, I am aware that it was not suggested by you specifically, but there are other people talking here!

This is based on the flawed idea of it being "rapid" and with "minimal risk of death". Even if we do the cut to the "young" population so that the death rate is only 0.2% in it (meaning quarantining almost half of the people!), that's still over 50 thousand deaths in the UK alone. Deaths of young people who had their whole lives in front of them. I simply do not wish to take a part in this Russian roulette unless any other option has been exhausted. And even then, is it clear that it would solve the situation of the elderly? Herd immunity just pushes the circulation to very low level, but even a small amount of carriers can make it explode among the "protected" population. Would you have to isolate the elderly indefinitely?

The problem of "flattening the curve" has been explained to death in the second Pueyo's piece with an overwhelming amount of plots - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56 - the natural peak is so unfathomably tall above the ICU levels that to keep the hospitals from overflowing, you would need to flatten it to absurd levels. In Czech Republic, the leader of the taskforce has said that we can handle 30000 people infected at once. That amounts to some 15 years needed to get it through a majority of the population ... This is the scale people are missing.

The only way out of this is to beat the peak now with dramatic measures and in the meanwhile to construct an unprecedented new infrastructure of testing and tracing and to keep such infrastructure running possibly indefinitely or until reliable vaccination is implemented for everyone. This doesn't necessarily mean the destruction of the economy, a lot of business can go as usual, especially now that 15-minute RNA-based tests are appearing. What it does require though is commitment. It requires people to resolutely stop saying things like "we will all get it anyway" and to stop worshiping the false idol of herd immunity, which is mathematically unachievable without widespread death and suffering. It also requires a lot of money spent upfront which is notoriously difficult for politicians to commit to, even though it has every chance of being cheaper in the long run - especially because it's "something to do" and thus it actually powers up the economy.
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 10:15   #180
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And just to add to the above in agreement

There is increasing evidence Covid-19 is hospitalising a significant percentage of those contracting the virus [i]under the age of 50[/I ]who have no underlying illnesses. It doesn’t take a mathematical wizard to see how quickly health services would collapse if we were to have a policy of ‘allowing’ the spread of Covid unchecked, in order that people can develop ‘natural immunity’ - isolating just the elderly, would not dramatically ease the burden of the health services as people in other categories are still clearly at risk of being hospitalised and of dying.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...e-severe-cases

I agree, its very possible that this might not just go away which brings us to the problem of how immune will people be and how long that immunity will last. There is no evidence as to whether the antibodies to covid19 will bring lasting immunity, or protect everyone who has had it mildly, from a more serious reinfection which would need to be the case for an effective ‘herd immunity’ Nor, if and how much seasonal mutatation is thrown into the mix.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...=1585391672993

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20M124

There’s still just too many unknowns out there.

Trying for a ‘Herd immunity’ approach comes with great risk not just for a percentage of younger people then or just the elderly but not such ‘good news’ either for the 15,000,000 people in the UK with chronic health conditions and consequently the ability of our health services to cope.(creating further risk of additional fatalities for whatever reason)

it could take years for herd immunity to ‘work’

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/a...normal/608752/

meanwhile

15,000,000 people in the UK at higher risk of dying from complications arising from co-morbidity

and 8,769,122 elderly

http://www.agediscrimination.info/current-uk-population

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/project...ulti-morbidity

Short-term restrictions for everyone combined with extensive tracing, testing and antibody tests along with controlling the pace of community transmissions in order to not overwhelm health services is how I would see it. Its a good job none of us are in charge of the Country we live in!

PS I’m one of the ones that the person quoted above is saying should be subject to ‘immediate lockdown isolation (for years?) while that same person (presumably?) goes on with their life safe in the knowledge that I am isolated from the ‘outside world’ - how dare you? as Greta would say
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 11:25   #181
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I was reacting to ideas like this:

The problem of "flattening the curve" has been explained to death in the second Pueyo's piece with an overwhelming amount of plots - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56 -

The only way out of this is to beat the peak now with dramatic measures and in the meanwhile to construct an unprecedented new infrastructure of testing and tracing and to keep such infrastructure running possibly indefinitely or until reliable vaccination is implemented for everyone. This doesn't necessarily mean the destruction of the economy, a lot of business can go as usual, especially now that 15-minute RNA-based tests are appearing. What it does require though is commitment. It requires people to resolutely stop saying things like "we will all get it anyway" and to stop worshiping the false idol of herd immunity, which is mathematically unachievable without widespread death and suffering. It also requires a lot of money spent upfront which is notoriously difficult for politicians to commit to, even though it has every chance of being cheaper in the long run - especially because it's "something to do" and thus it actually powers up the economy.

IMHO, flattening the curve is not important, we need to be ahead of the curve and be able to deal as best we can, with whatever is thrown at us. The besy way to do that is to protect the vulnerable and get the infrastucture in place for when it's needed because it looks like it definitely will be.

The economy cannot just stop indefinitely and it won't be allowed to. Rich people need to make money and poorer people need to eat and pay their rent etc. Walking on my highstreet (only when essential of course) sees nine out ten business closed, even the Turkish 'chippy' has closed due to a drop in footfall and a fear among their staff of getting infected, they could have stayed open. Oddy, the hardware / building supplies store is still open, is that essential?

The experts are saying that until we have a vaccine, up to 80% of people will get the virus, I can't argue this one way or another.
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 11:58   #182
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I read Boris's letter. Is it just his incompetence that makes him say, without qualification: "its all right to go to work"?

I thought we'd reached the stage, sensibly, of saying only key workers - including those in the food supply business - should be going to work. Is that not correct?

I thought the idea of the letter was to bring extra clarity but I'm less clear now than I was yesterday (or thought I was)!

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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 12:16   #183
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I thought the idea of the letter was to bring extra clarity but I'm less clear now than I was yesterday (or thought I was)!

John
Is this the same letter that’s supposed to be going out to 30 million households?
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 12:19   #184
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Is this the same letter that’s supposed to be going out to 30 million households?
Yes!

Personally I think if you gave him a brewery and a guest list he'd have no idea what to do, but this is a new low in competence even for him.

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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 12:21   #185
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ok here’s a link so we can all see it! (it can be cut and pasted in if link doesn’t work for non uk’ers)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rnment-advice/

Wasn’t there also a list somewhere of other businesses that could stay open?

ie. non- keyworkers?

Supermarkets/food
Bike shops
Petrol stations
Chemists
etc

Hmm ... well it’s good to know we all going to survive because the “Great British Spirit” is going to beat the virus.
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 14:02   #186
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Oddy, the hardware / building supplies store is still open, is that essential?
Hardware stores deemed essential here in Italy. Don't know about anywhere else.
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 14:03   #187
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Oddy, the hardware / building supplies store is still open, is that essential?
These are considered essential, because if your plumbing breaks, electricity goes out, or any other random household/car issues may happen, you need to be able to buy the tools and material to address those concerns
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 14:38   #188
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Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
I read Boris's letter. Is it just his incompetence that makes him say, without qualification: "its all right to go to work"?

I thought we'd reached the stage, sensibly, of saying only key workers - including those in the food supply business - should be going to work. Is that not correct?

I thought the idea of the letter was to bring extra clarity but I'm less clear now than I was yesterday (or thought I was)!

John
In this country 'essential' work is defined as anyone having a job that they can perform whilst complying with restrictions (currently 4sqm per person, and limits to gatherings of 10 or less indoors as of tonight. [it has become derigeur for shops to display the number of people permitted in the shop at any one time according to it's floorspace, on notices at the entry to the premises. Some have even taped 'X's all over the floor to indicate the required spacing]. Many sporting codes have had to abandon the season - even lawn bowls ! Pubs and clubs have been closed down, and many retailers - fashion etc are finding it unviable to trade with the much reduced custom). Restaurants/Food outlets are limited to providing takeaways/deliveries.

One of my favorite local previously thriving cafe/takeaway food outlets has tonight closed indefinitely as the owners cannot continue to trade with the reduced custom, uncertainty, and need to balance perishable stocks. They are lovely people, hard-working, running a small family owned business. This is a tragedy that really hits home the amount of economic destruction being perpetrated.

I will have to search far and wide to avoid giving my hard earned to the big supermarkets who are profiting hand over fist with their vanishing discounts, creeping prices, and what must be deliberate stock shortages.

The management of the situation has been an absolute joke. Thousands of people have been let off cruise ships containing infected people and allowed to freely roam the general population. Testing protocols are likewise laughable - greatly skewing the figures to make the numbers seem more of a problem than they actually are.

The only thing being done with any proficiency is the theft of everybody's wealth. Oh yeah, and the Government unilaterally suspended Parliament for 5 months, and installed a privately appointed Committee (NCCC). If this was a Latin American country the world would be jumping up and down screaming Coup !

The youngest person of the 16 to die in this country (0.4% of 3969 total cases) was a 68 year old man. Here are the ages of all 16. Some of these are in a nursing home cluster.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp....ss-the-country

Of the 3969 officially listed cases, 23 are in a serious or critical condition (0.6%). The number of actual cases is many times higher than this - nobody knows the real number - is it 3x?, 10x?, 100x?, 1000x? or more? The first recorded case in this country was Jan 24 - over 2 months ago. The cat is well and truly out of the bag with uncontrolled and untraced transmission (and subsequent recovery too) in the general population.







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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 15:04   #189
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These are considered essential, because if your plumbing breaks, electricity goes out, or any other random household/car issues may happen, you need to be able to buy the tools and material to address those concerns
Concur, although tbh hiring a reputable artisan is less likely than DIY to put extra pressure on the health service as a result.

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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 15:14   #190
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In this country 'essential' work is defined as anyone having a job that they can perform whilst complying with restrictions (currently 4sqm per person, and limits to gatherings of 10 or less indoors as of tonight). [it has become derigeur for shops to display the number of people permitted in the shop at any one time according to it's floorspace, on notices at the entry to the premises. Some have even taped 'X's all over the floor to indicate the required spacing]. Many sporting codes have had to abandon the season - even lawn bowls ! Pubs and clubs have been closed down, and many retailers - fashion etc are finding it unviable to trade with the much reduced custom). Restaurants/Food outlets are limited to providing takeaways/deliveries.

One of my favorite local previously thriving cafe/takeaway food outlets has tonight closed indefinitely as the owners cannot continue to trade with the reduced custom, uncertainty, and need to balance perishable stocks. They are lovely people, hard-working, running a small family owned business. This is a tragedy that really hits home the amount of economic destruction being perpetrated.

I will have to search far and wide to avoid giving my hard earned to the big supermarkets who are profiting hand over fist with their vanishing discounts, creeping prices, and what must be deliberate stock shortages.

The management of the situation has been an absolute joke. Thousands of people have been let off cruise ships containing infected people and allowed to freely roam the general population. Testing protocols are likewise laughable - greatly skewing the figures to make the numbers seem more of a problem than they actually are.

The only thing being done with any proficiency is the theft of everybody's wealth. Oh yeah, and the Government unilaterally suspended Parliament for 5 months, and installed a privately appointed Committee (NCCC). If this was a Latin American country the world would be jumping up and down screaming Coup !

The youngest person of the 16 to die in this country (0.4% of 3969 total cases) was a 68 year old man. Here are the ages of all 16. Some of these are in a nursing home cluster.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp....ss-the-country

Of the 3969 officially listed cases, 23 are in a serious or critical condition (0.6%). The number of actual cases is many times higher than this - nobody knows the real number - is it 3x?, 10x?, 100x?, 1000x? or more? The first recorded case in this country was Jan 24 - over 2 months ago. The cat is well and truly out of the bag with uncontrolled and untraced transmission (and subsequent recovery too) in the general population.







Chosun

So you claim that simultaneously "protocols are skewed to make it seem more of a problem" and there are many more cases than listed. How exactly does that work?

The amount of death so far in Australia is small, but that's an irrelevant number for the future development. At this moment Australia is "behind" in the timeline, but that doesn't mean it won't end up the same as any other country when it gets to that point. Only when you already have so many bodies that you call for the army to help you bury them, then it's too late to do anything.
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 15:41   #191
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So you claim that simultaneously "protocols are skewed to make it seem more of a problem" and there are many more cases than listed. How exactly does that work?

The amount of death so far in Australia is small, but that's an irrelevant number for the future development. At this moment Australia is "behind" in the timeline, but that doesn't mean it won't end up the same as any other country when it gets to that point. Only when you already have so many bodies that you call for the army to help you bury them, then it's too late to do anything.
All of this has been explained before, but is basically down to the testing protocols here (a somewhat shifting line now) , but initially it was testing ONLY for:-
Self reported symptomatic people returning from overseas (from defined countries too at one stage) or who had been in contact with an officially diagnosed and known case.

People presenting to Dr.'s or even hospitals with symptoms (the big 3 are: fever, dry cough, and chest infection - pretty unusual and unmistakable) who did not fit this criteria were denied testing.
People entering the country with symptoms were subject to no testing.
Asymptomatic people anywhere were not tested.
People who have recovered from the virus are not tested for antibodies.

That's more than enough.

I posted the date of the first case here. Combine this with the unrecorded cases and unchecked transmission, and our death rates (largely unchanged in % terms over the last fortnight) then have relevance.

There are other testing protocol anomalies in other countries too - some of which have been mentioned (some not). I will let others dig those up.






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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 15:54   #192
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Concur, although tbh hiring a reputable artisan is less likely than DIY to put extra pressure on the health service as a result.

John
Absolutely! but artisans need to buy tools/stuff/spares too, thus the need for hardware shops.
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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 22:27   #193
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Exclamation

We have had a jump of 513 new cases since yesterday (14.1%) to 4148 cases. The number of deaths remains at 16 (still 0.4% of total official cases, rounded up to 1 decimal place), and the number of serious /critical is still 23 (still 0.6% also when rounded up to 1 decimal place).

This from the government health department's website just now ...

Quote:
Testing

Your doctor will tell you if you should be tested. They will arrange for the test.

You will only be tested if your doctor decides you meet the criteria:

You have returned from overseas in the past 14 days and you develop respiratory illness with or without fever.
You have been in close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case in the past 14 days and you develop respiratory illness with or without fever.
You have severe community-acquired pneumonia and there is no clear cause.
You are a healthcare worker who works directly with patients and you have a respiratory illness and a fever.

There is a global shortage of the test kits that pathologists use to diagnose COVID-19. This is why we are doing targeted testing instead of widespread testing.

After testing

It may take a few days for the test results to come back.

If you have serious symptoms you will be kept in hospital and isolated from other patients to prevent the virus spreading.

If your doctor says you are well enough to go home while you wait for your test results, you should:

self-isolate at home and do not attend work or school.
protect yourself and others.

...................

Treatment

There is no treatment for COVID-19, but medical care can treat most of the symptoms.

Antibiotics do not work on viruses.

* While we are on the subject, I caught a snippet on an international news service about some lab work in some country or another, and wondered if people notice similar things that I did.??
Ask yourselves these questions next time you see some footage:-

Is there a diversity of people working there? age, nationalities, heights, weights, builds, attractiveness?
Are the people more attractive than average for that profession? is there anyone unattractive there?
Are the people moving with control, purpose, experience and efficiency? (ie. can they put glass vials on a bench without dropping them or knocking them over? can they pour liquids from one container to another proficiently?
Are they wearing the proper protective equipment at the appropriate times? would it work in the situation and tasks they are currently performing?
Do the steps they are taking seem logical? what are they doing?

Do you have any experience yourself with actors, performers, or any form of video production? ...... take careful notice.

!! During the blanket coverage of the COVID-19 situation, the NSW government has quietly approved mining under our Sydney water catchment reservoirs, which supply the daily drinking water for ~5 million people .......
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp....29-p54eyd.html







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Old Sunday 29th March 2020, 22:34   #194
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The results to date from this outbreak are certainly confusing.
The CDC maintains weekly US mortality statistics.
Through the week ending March 7, the most recent period available, the 2020 death totals are way under the average, about 48,000 for the Mar 7 week versus about 55,000 in prior years. See:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/2y2gvh2q7a...ences.pdf?dl=0

Are people taking less risk or being more careful? It is hard to understand why a deadly virus would cause a decline in the death rate.
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Old Monday 30th March 2020, 04:30   #195
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We have had a jump of 513 new cases since yesterday (14.1%) to 4148 cases. The number of deaths remains at 16 (still 0.4% of total official cases, rounded up to 1 decimal place), and the number of serious /critical is still 23 (still 0.6% also when rounded up to 1 decimal place).
The death rates WILL rise. Deaths usually occur 3 to 4 weeks after infection. Leading German virologists/epidemologists believe the CFR of this pandemic will be about 0.7 to 0.8 % in Germany, even taking into account all those cases where people don't even realize they have/had the virus. These figures will become clearer once reliable antibody tests become widely available. It will thus be about 7-8 times higher than the CFR of a typical influenza epidemic.

The CFR will be higher in countries with a less developed health care system.

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Old Monday 30th March 2020, 06:49   #196
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The death rates WILL rise. Deaths usually occur 3 to 4 weeks after infection. Leading German virologists/epidemologists believe the CFR of this pandemic will be about 0.7 to 0.8 % in Germany, even taking into account all those cases where people don't even realize they have/had the virus. These figures will become clearer once reliable antibody tests become widely available. It will thus be about 7-8 times higher than the CFR of a typical influenza epidemic.

The CFR will be higher in countries with a less developed health care system.

Hermann
That's similar to here, though I don't think we are waiting for any big increase - it's been uncontrolled exposure here since the get go, and rates have held pretty steady. Our biggest issues have been the virus on cruise ships and in nursing homes.

It makes you wonder why your 'neighbours' Italy are an order of magnitude higher .... I still haven't seen a robust satisfactory explanation for that yet ......
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....114405536.html

We should learn lots from the US in the coming fortnight - month, as their new case load has gone 'near vertical' (flying analogy) and I can't see it coming back ......







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Old Monday 30th March 2020, 07:37   #197
Hermann
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It makes you wonder why your 'neighbours' Italy are an order of magnitude higher .... I still haven't seen a robust satisfactory explanation for that yet ...
Italy only discovered they had the virus when there were already *a lot* of cases. So there were/are many people around who had/have the virus but don't turn up in the statistics. We got the virus several weeks later than Italy, and cranked up the number of tests very quickly, simply because Germany had more time to prepare. At the moment they do about about 160,000 tests a week in Germany AFAIK, which is way higher than in the US and the UK, for instance. The fact that the current test used was developed by the team at the Charite in Berlin may have also been a factor.

And there's another factor in my opinion: In Italy the health service - that is excellent AFAIK - was apparently overwhelmed by the sheer number of cases, so patients possibly didn't/don't get the best possible care. The same applies to Spain. Case Fatality Rates in Germany will go up no doubt once the number of seriously sick people increases.

Disclaimer: I'm neither a virologist nor an epidemologist, so take these thoughts with a grain of salt.

Hermann
who's got to be very careful indeed as
he is in one of the groups at risk ...

Addendum: I just heard that testing capacity in Germany is now well higher than the figure I quoted. Christian Drosten of the Charite (Berlin) mentioned in today's podcast that testing capacity is more than 500.000 tests a week now.

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Old Monday 30th March 2020, 15:29   #198
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For a while this discussion seemed a useful inquiry and sharing of views. However, the most vocal and repetitive participants have obviously taken a firm position they intend to adhere to, which entirely defeats the point of asking further questions. So one begins to wonder what they're still doing here, performing some sort of vigilante idea-police patrol?

In most countries (certainly the USA) the spread is already out of control so unfortunately there is no point in arguing about testing, tracking and isolation of contacts, etc. At this point no one has or will have the resources to do that, except retrospectively (antibody tests which will eventually serve some confirmatory purpose). This would once have been an intelligent approach but has become completely irrelevant. The virus is too infectious. It doesn't matter whether you think wide spreading and herd immunity are a good idea. It's not what I would have chosen either. It's just what's happening.

So we're simply going to have to see how we get through it, how this coming wave of hospitalizations plays out in different countries, even regions of a large country. It will be different, for reasons the already-certain don't care to go into, reasons why certain (even young) people develop life-threatening cases while most others don't. Reasons that include demographics, population density, family size, lifestyle and so on -- many of which will boil down to whether people get mild or large initial exposures to the virus, and how, a vital question that has as yet received little attention. The peak should of course be mitigated by current distancing and shutdown measures -- some of which strike me as crude overkill, some more reasonable, but no one here has to my knowledge advocated "doing nothing", a straw-man opponent some find curiously satisfying.

However my own prediction would be that none of these opinions will actually change with further evidence, even after the next month or so. If the peak isn't nearly as bad as has been predicted (as likely given the doubtful assumptions and oversights of the models in question), those who advocate strict shutdown measures will claim that only those saved us from that disaster, and obviously must continue and be repeated for a year or more regardless of the consequences. If it does somehow turn out to be that bad, those people will argue that shutdown measures needed to be even harsher and enforced more strictly. To a hammer everything looks like a nail.

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Old Monday 30th March 2020, 15:48   #199
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However my own prediction would be that none of these opinions will actually change with further evidence, even after the next month or so. If the peak isn't nearly as bad as has been predicted (as likely given the doubtful assumptions and oversights of the models in question), those who advocate strict shutdown measures will claim that only those saved us from that disaster, and must continue and be repeated for a year or more regardless of the consequences. If it does somehow turn out to be that bad, those people will argue that shutdown measures needed to be even harsher and enforced more strictly.
There may actually be an answer to whether strict shutdown measures work of not. Norway has a strict shutdown policy, neighbouring Sweden doesn't. The Swedish policy is far more lenient at the moment, ski resorts are still open, as are bars and restaurants. Both countries have excellent health care systems.

It will be interesting to compare what happens in both countries.

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Old Monday 30th March 2020, 16:47   #200
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tenex View Post
For a while this discussion seemed a useful inquiry and sharing of views. However, the most vocal and repetitive participants have obviously taken a firm position they intend to adhere to, which entirely defeats the point of asking further questions. So one begins to wonder what they're still doing here, performing some sort of vigilante idea-police patrol?

In most countries (certainly the USA) the spread is already out of control so unfortunately there is no point in arguing about testing, tracking and isolation of contacts, etc. At this point no one has or will have the resources to do that, except retrospectively (antibody tests which will eventually serve some confirmatory purpose). This would once have been an intelligent approach but has become completely irrelevant. The virus is too infectious. It doesn't matter whether you think wide spreading and herd immunity are a good idea. It's not what I would have chosen either. It's just what's happening.

So we're simply going to have to see how we get through it, how this coming wave of hospitalizations plays out in different countries, even regions of a large country. It will be different, for reasons the already-certain don't care to go into, reasons why certain (even young) people develop life-threatening cases while most others don't. Reasons that include demographics, population density, family size, lifestyle and so on -- many of which will boil down to whether people get mild or large initial exposures to the virus, and how, a vital question that has as yet received little attention. The peak should of course be mitigated by current distancing and shutdown measures -- some of which strike me as crude overkill, some more reasonable, but no one here has to my knowledge advocated "doing nothing", a straw-man opponent some find curiously satisfying.

However my own prediction would be that none of these opinions will actually change with further evidence, even after the next month or so. If the peak isn't nearly as bad as has been predicted (as likely given the doubtful assumptions and oversights of the models in question), those who advocate strict shutdown measures will claim that only those saved us from that disaster, and obviously must continue and be repeated for a year or more regardless of the consequences. If it does somehow turn out to be that bad, those people will argue that shutdown measures needed to be even harsher and enforced more strictly. To a hammer everything looks like a nail.
Yoy have now literally complained about people being too firm in their opinions and stated your opinion as an irefutable fact in the span of two paragraphs.
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