Jon Turner
Well-known member
It took Noah 22 days to reach the 500 mark, so yes a very speedy start!
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2016 - World Yearlist Record Attempt (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter John Cantelo
- Start date
It took Noah 22 days to reach the 500 mark, so yes a very speedy start!
Captain_of_Crunch
YVdpep_re64
If he keeps up the current pace of >40 new species per day, he is likely to see more than 16,000 species by the end of the year. I mean, was Noah even trying!
George Kappus
Member
Because Noah spent his first eight days visiting relatively species poor Antarctica and the Falklands, a more interesting comparison of his and Arjan's comparative pace would be how long it took Noah to reach 500 more than his at sea total after he came ashore on South America. He ended his time at sea on 1/8 with 54 species. He reached 554 in 17 days on 1/25. Arjan's is still ticking faster, but the contrast is less stark
Andrew Verrall
Active member
The greatest start, makes you wonder how many by end of January. Just worked out to get the 366 year total 6,500 would need 17.7 sp average and to get 7,000 would need 19.1 so anything is possible.
Andrew
Richard Klim
-------------------------
Btw, just two remaining conflicts with IOC taxonomy in Arjan's list...
- Bewick's Swan Cygnus bewickii should be Tundra Swan C columbianus (not split by IOC)
- Brown-throated Martin Riparia paludicola should be Grey-throated Martin R chinensis (split by IOC)
DanielDoer
Well-known member
This is my first message in this forum so first of all I have to say a great thank you for all the interesting discussions and statistics. I used to follow Noahs blog almost the whole year 2015 and am even more interested in Arjans attempt (f.e. because he started with a Big Day in the Netherlands a quite well known neighboring country of mine - have never been to Antarctica though!).
I think that the pace of Arjan at the beginning of his big year is even more impressive when compared to Noahs progress in the mainland of South America. I think that South America should be much more species rich in summer than India in winter, or what do you think? Very impressive indeed the beginning of Arjans Biggest Year (impressive title as well by the way 😊)...
All the best for him and his Indian crew for the next weeks!
Southern most South America is probably a little like birding Norway in summer, not really great going. Day 14, Noah reached Entre Rios in Argentina, that was when the really high score for a day first happened.
Niels
Paul Chapman
Well-known member
He remains in India until 31st January so it will be interesting to see what his final total is for India:-
http://ebird.org/ebird/top100?locInfo.regionCode=IN&year=AAAA
What will interest me is the extent to which he has continued to record species that Noah did not record. It was 32 at last count. Getting ahead of the game provides him with an opportunity to use that time later in the year.
I get the feeling that he is birding locations harder ie covering more ground.
He recorded:-
Netherlands - 122 species (1 day)
UAE - 103 species (2 days)
Sri Lanka - 182 species (5 days)
India - 127 species (09.01.15)
Anyone able to compare the distance travelled by Noah and Arjan in the first 9 days?
All the best
http://ebird.org/ebird/top100?locInfo.regionCode=IN&year=AAAA
What will interest me is the extent to which he has continued to record species that Noah did not record. It was 32 at last count. Getting ahead of the game provides him with an opportunity to use that time later in the year.
I get the feeling that he is birding locations harder ie covering more ground.
He recorded:-
Netherlands - 122 species (1 day)
UAE - 103 species (2 days)
Sri Lanka - 182 species (5 days)
India - 127 species (09.01.15)
Anyone able to compare the distance travelled by Noah and Arjan in the first 9 days?
All the best
nikothomsen
Well-known member
Not really sure what the fuzz is about, regarding Arjan's beginning. He has visited three COMPLETELY different areas of the world (Netherlands, UAE, Indian subcontinent). Noah just did southern SA (and antarctica, but that is hardly worth counting in this comparison) for this period of time. Like Niels is saying, Noah spent this time of year in a relatively low-species area, one that Arjan likely will spend time on later this year.
I completely agree with Paul in that the only reasonable way of comparing at this stage is what birds they each saw in locations they've both been to.
Who knows though, maybe the approx. week Noah spent in Antarctica will cost him the record due to the low amount of species he has seen there that Arjan won't (assuming he's not going to Antarctica).
I completely agree with Paul in that the only reasonable way of comparing at this stage is what birds they each saw in locations they've both been to.
Who knows though, maybe the approx. week Noah spent in Antarctica will cost him the record due to the low amount of species he has seen there that Arjan won't (assuming he's not going to Antarctica).
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Paul Chapman
Well-known member
Best guess (I reckon) - Netherlands to UAE to Sri Lanka to Delhi is about 10,000 km in comparison to Trinity Island to Buenos Aires Airport is about 2,000 km.
All the best
All the best
dalat
...
Impressive start!
Probably a bit pointless to do comparisons at the moment indeed. Very different places visited, and although we can see which birds he saw and Noah missed, to be sure about Arjan's misses compared to Noah's, we will have to wait a year...
Anway, what will count in the end is how much he will manage to stay healthy and keep up the pace. Noah was very impressive in this regard, with no breaks, no fatigue and almost no health issues. Arjan has the advantage of Noah having set the bar, which will provide a lot of motivation to keep going. Noah had much less of such pressure, with the previous record broken early and Arjan's plan only being known towards the end of the year.
Exiting sport to watch :t:
Probably a bit pointless to do comparisons at the moment indeed. Very different places visited, and although we can see which birds he saw and Noah missed, to be sure about Arjan's misses compared to Noah's, we will have to wait a year...
Anway, what will count in the end is how much he will manage to stay healthy and keep up the pace. Noah was very impressive in this regard, with no breaks, no fatigue and almost no health issues. Arjan has the advantage of Noah having set the bar, which will provide a lot of motivation to keep going. Noah had much less of such pressure, with the previous record broken early and Arjan's plan only being known towards the end of the year.
Exiting sport to watch :t:
DanielDoer
Well-known member
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nikothomsen
Well-known member
So if the only legit way of comparing is the species Arjan saw in places they've both been this number is 32. Then we should deduct all the Malabar endemics from this number, since we know Arjan has no plan of visiting Western Ghats (he can of course return to India later, but such a reservation makes comparing useless, we must assume he's not going back).
Paul's analysis on p10 on this thread resulted in 26 birds no longer tickable by Arjan, making his number 6. I would say this is barely a lead.
Paul's analysis on p10 on this thread resulted in 26 birds no longer tickable by Arjan, making his number 6. I would say this is barely a lead.
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DanielDoer
Well-known member
If you count the new seen species of Arjan minus the endemics of Southern India you also have to calculate minus the 40 species Noah had seen exclusively in Antarctica (because Arjan won't go there). Then Noah is in front!
But that doesn't make sense in my opinion, because it doesn't reflect the possibilities for Arjan to go to sites Noah didn't visit in the time saved during not visiting Antarctica or Western Ghats.
The most reasonable comparison at the moment are the species Arjan saw exclusively in sites that Noah did visit as well. So if you delete the 11 species in the Netherlands (because Noah didn't visit NL as well as whole Europe in winter) you get Arjan to be in front by at least 22 species (as we don't know the species of the last two days in northern India that both visited).
Best wishes for good discussions here and - most of all - good observations for Arjan!
But that doesn't make sense in my opinion, because it doesn't reflect the possibilities for Arjan to go to sites Noah didn't visit in the time saved during not visiting Antarctica or Western Ghats.
The most reasonable comparison at the moment are the species Arjan saw exclusively in sites that Noah did visit as well. So if you delete the 11 species in the Netherlands (because Noah didn't visit NL as well as whole Europe in winter) you get Arjan to be in front by at least 22 species (as we don't know the species of the last two days in northern India that both visited).
Best wishes for good discussions here and - most of all - good observations for Arjan!
temmie
Well-known member
The easiest thing to do is to conclude that Arjan is having a schedule that can bring him around 15-16 species / day for the whole year, while Noah started with Antarctica which has 8-9 species / day.
So Arjan will always have 50-60 species advantage, potentially.
ps: I only make this conclusion to compare big years by numbers, not to give more value to one trip than to the other, because I am sure that the Antarctica experience, while rather species-poor, is hard to beat.
So Arjan will always have 50-60 species advantage, potentially.
ps: I only make this conclusion to compare big years by numbers, not to give more value to one trip than to the other, because I am sure that the Antarctica experience, while rather species-poor, is hard to beat.
nikothomsen
Well-known member
I disagree.
As Vincent (Arjan's back-office) has stated, there will be no time for South India this year. We must take this at face value and furthermore, he's already moving away from the area. As I mentioned before, these comparisons make little sense if we do not assume he will not be going there when he basically surpassed the chance.
Antarctica is not on Arjan's current itinerary, but I see no reason excluding places he has not had the chance of going to yet. For me, it is a very likely scenario that he will do well in Chile and Argentina and have some spare time, why not add Antarctica? Last minute cruises are readily available down there and this is often also the cheapest way of doing it.
All I'm saying is, let's not include places they both have not had the reasonable chance of visiting. Arjan has had the reasonable chance of visiting South India, and Noah had the reasonable chance of visiting NL.
I hope this made sense, enjoying the discussion here.
Nohatch
Mad scientist
Could be a reflection of their birding background (Oregon vs. Netherlands)? Here in the UK folks seem inappropriately obsessed with gulls
That aside, a reasonable comparison will be possible when Arjan finishes his Australasian leg - very handy he's split up his year into 3 sections.
Paul Chapman
Well-known member
For me, it is too early to tell. By the end of Arjan's Asian/Australasian leg, if he has a net lead (ie he has seen more unique species than Noah's unique species from the same area), Arjan will be favourite because of his African and New World itineraries.
Of course, logistical or health problems will be the potential significant wild card.
(Edit - cross-posted and I agree with Nohatch.)
All the best
Of course, logistical or health problems will be the potential significant wild card.
(Edit - cross-posted and I agree with Nohatch.)
All the best
DMW
Well-known member
It’s interesting to consider the planning of a global big year, because it seems to require more or less the exact opposite approach to normal “world birding”. Most of us, when we visit a particular destination, have certain target species, and are prepared to devote a fair bit of time to seeing these.
How many of us wouldn’t sacrifice a couple of near-identical leaf warbler splits, or yet another spinetail or cisticola, for a view of a Giant Pitta or a ground cuckoo or Congo Peafowl?
Who would be just as satisfied hearing a distant tragopan as seeing an adult male? When planning an itinerary, it’s common to add extra insurance days at sites to maximise the chances of seeing the more difficult birds. This is a luxury you can’t afford on a big year like this. So what are the key factors to success? Assuming getting the longest list possible is the only goal, I would suggest:
1.Treat all birds as equal. Forget the game of strategising to see as many endemics as possible, or trying for key target species. Calculate your required run rate, and design an itinerary that can deliver this, even if it means missing out endemic-rich areas. Did Noah make a mistake visiting Antarctica? I think so. Did Arjan make a mistake missing-out the Western Ghats in India? Probably not – he would have required at least 2 days to see the majority of the endemics /unique species for his itinerary, and that’s not enough to meet his required run-rate.
2.Work out how many days you need at a given site and reduce that number by 1 or 2.
3.Keep moving. New sites give more new birds than working an area hard trying to squeeze-out the last few ticks – obviously allowing for the fact that the more you move, the more travel time eats into your birding time.
4.If you consider heard-only birds as tickable, don’t try to see things you’ve heard – move on. No extra points for seeing birds you have positively identified on voice.
5.Be prepared to sacrifice “unmissable” destinations if they won’t deliver the numbers. For example, is Madagascar worth visiting? Do the travel days lost + days in field yield the needed average number of species?
6.Don’t confuse a big bird list for a given site with easy pickings. Some of the Amazonian lodges have site lists around 600 species, but you can go for hours without encountering a bird. Open habitats / montane forests tend to provide easier birding than tropical lowland forest. For me, one of the biggest questions is how best to deal with lowland tropical forest: do you just dip in and out, or do you devote significant blocks of time to it?
7.Prioritise sites where there are top-notch local guides / birders willing to guide over similar sites where there aren’t. A good local guide will get you more birds more quickly than a DIY approach.
What else?
How many of us wouldn’t sacrifice a couple of near-identical leaf warbler splits, or yet another spinetail or cisticola, for a view of a Giant Pitta or a ground cuckoo or Congo Peafowl?
Who would be just as satisfied hearing a distant tragopan as seeing an adult male? When planning an itinerary, it’s common to add extra insurance days at sites to maximise the chances of seeing the more difficult birds. This is a luxury you can’t afford on a big year like this. So what are the key factors to success? Assuming getting the longest list possible is the only goal, I would suggest:
1.Treat all birds as equal. Forget the game of strategising to see as many endemics as possible, or trying for key target species. Calculate your required run rate, and design an itinerary that can deliver this, even if it means missing out endemic-rich areas. Did Noah make a mistake visiting Antarctica? I think so. Did Arjan make a mistake missing-out the Western Ghats in India? Probably not – he would have required at least 2 days to see the majority of the endemics /unique species for his itinerary, and that’s not enough to meet his required run-rate.
2.Work out how many days you need at a given site and reduce that number by 1 or 2.
3.Keep moving. New sites give more new birds than working an area hard trying to squeeze-out the last few ticks – obviously allowing for the fact that the more you move, the more travel time eats into your birding time.
4.If you consider heard-only birds as tickable, don’t try to see things you’ve heard – move on. No extra points for seeing birds you have positively identified on voice.
5.Be prepared to sacrifice “unmissable” destinations if they won’t deliver the numbers. For example, is Madagascar worth visiting? Do the travel days lost + days in field yield the needed average number of species?
6.Don’t confuse a big bird list for a given site with easy pickings. Some of the Amazonian lodges have site lists around 600 species, but you can go for hours without encountering a bird. Open habitats / montane forests tend to provide easier birding than tropical lowland forest. For me, one of the biggest questions is how best to deal with lowland tropical forest: do you just dip in and out, or do you devote significant blocks of time to it?
7.Prioritise sites where there are top-notch local guides / birders willing to guide over similar sites where there aren’t. A good local guide will get you more birds more quickly than a DIY approach.
What else?
