I received this on my Ohio bird listserv:
Three scientists have a paper in the works at the Public Library of Science
challenging the report in Science. No details have been released, but there are
other signs of doubt.
David Allen Sibley, the prominent American birder and the author of popular
field guides, said Thursday that he had concluded that in the Science paper,
"the evidence they've presented falls short of proof."
Mr. Sibley said he decided this independently of the three scientists who wrote
the rebuttal, although he had been in contact with them.
Kenn Kaufman, another major birding author, also said in an interview that he
was not satisfied with the evidence. Although he said he believed the sighting
was real, he did not think the re-discoverers had proved their case.
Mr. Harrison said that he could not comment on an unpublished paper, but that
he was confident in the finding, and welcomed a scientific discussion.
"I'm surprised it didn't happen sooner," Mr. Harrison said.
Nor do the critics question his integrity or that of Mr. Gallagher or of the
other authors of the Science paper.
"The people who originally announced this thoroughly believe they got an
ivory-billed woodpecker," said Mark B. Robbins of the University of Kansas, one
of the three scientists preparing the challenge to the Science report. "They
believe one thing, we believe another. This is how science plays out, the
fabric of science getting at the truth."
Except that with the ivory bill, nothing is ever business as usual. Even when
it was common, the bird had a certain majesty and mystery. For the last 50
years it has been a symbol of loss, and of human failure. Most people were
afraid to hope.
So the report in Science, reviewed by other researchers, with multiple
sightings over the course of a year by respected observers, and a blurry
videotape that was exhaustively analyzed, was greeted with almost religious
fervor.
Mr. Kaufman described the initial reaction as: "The bird is back from the
grave. Eureka! We're saved."
Pete Dunne, vice president of the New Jersey Audubon Society and a prolific
author on birds, said he was one of many who thought the ivory bill was gone
for good.
"If someone had said to me, what was more likely, the rediscovery of the
ivory-billed woodpecker or the Second Coming, unhesitantly I would have gone to
the latter."
He is now a firm believer. "The credentials of the people who saw this are
stellar," he said.
Usually, scientists and birders are skeptical. In fact, Mr. Kaufman said, "I've
actually been shocked that virtually everyone has been embracing this."
He added, "I do in fact believe that there was a bird there last year, but it
hasn't been proven and we could have a more honest discussion if people accept
the fact that we don't have proof."
Mr. Sibley is unconvinced. At first, he, too, was elated, and went down to
Arkansas for 10 days to look for the ivory bill without success.
It was only when he returned, he said, that he began to think critically about
the Science report. "It's really crushing to come to the conclusion that it
might not be true, that there is room for some reasonable doubt."
He has been reluctant to speak publicly about his doubts, and described
doubters as being treated as "heretics" in online discussions.
The reason he is speaking out now, he said, is that he worried that money might
be diverted from other conservation efforts.
What he said he wanted, for proof, was "redundancy. Repeated sightings by
independent observers of birds really well seen."
This is what Mr. Harrison wants, more than anything. And he understands the
skeptics, because he has been one. But this time, he and his colleagues are
following in the long tradition of Mr. Dennis and the late Dr. Lowery. "I know
the bird is there," he said.
Mike
