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Corona virus threat to birding

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Old Thursday 12th March 2020, 20:01   #151
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In light of the UK predictions of peak in 8-12 weeks, worst case scenario of 80% infection rate & 1% fatality rate together with how that fatality rate is made up from a demographic perspective, I suspect the disruption is a minimum 4+ months and Birdfair would be in danger. I do need to sit through the briefing again really. The sobering thought is comparing the infection predictions with the fatality demographics.

Keep safe all.
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Old Thursday 12th March 2020, 20:07   #152
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In light of the UK predictions of peak in 8-12 weeks, worst case scenario of 80% infection rate & 1% fatality rate together with how that fatality rate is made up from a demographic perspective, I suspect the disruption is a minimum 4+ months and Birdfair would be in danger. I do need to sit through the briefing again really. The sobering thought is comparing the infection predictions with the fatality demographics.

Keep safe all.
As the parent of a toddler, I find some solace in this, if not from a personal perspective!

Also to be understood is that even the elderly that succumb, most are poorly with other issues which have already weakened them and most healthy 70 year olds should be ok, even if they contract the virus.

Italy has an astonishingly high death rate?
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Old Thursday 12th March 2020, 21:23   #153
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As the parent of a toddler, I find some solace in this, if not from a personal perspective!

Also to be understood is that even the elderly that succumb, most are poorly with other issues which have already weakened them and most healthy 70 year olds should be ok, even if they contract the virus.

Italy has an astonishingly high death rate?
Difficult to assess fatality rates with differential testing rates. I sat through a rather statistics heavy webinar at lunchtime that I will probably revisit.

All the best
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Old Thursday 12th March 2020, 21:39   #154
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Difficult to assess fatality rates with differential testing rates. I sat through a rather statistics heavy webinar at lunchtime that I will probably revisit.

All the best
15000 positive tests with 1000 deaths, c7%?
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Old Thursday 12th March 2020, 21:46   #155
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15000 positive tests with 1000 deaths, c7%?
There was a question on the point at the Government briefing. I cannot remember precisely the response so I wouldn't attempt to repeat it until I have listened to it again.

Edit - just recapped. The Webinar I watched earlier gave 5% for Italy with the suggestion that the age of the population was a significant factor. Contrast 4/4.5% Hubei Province & 0.7% South Korea with the suggestion that South Korea mass tested to establish a far higher proportion of positive cases that would otherwise have been missed.

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Old Thursday 12th March 2020, 23:49   #156
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The most quantified stats are probably those for the Diamond Princess cruise liner in Japan.

This page of Japanese stats quotes 3,618 tested, 696 positive, 410 no symptoms on March 6th and 4,061 tested, 705 positive, 392 no symptoms on March 2nd (so slight discrepancy there probably due to some cases having been moved away and problems reconciling cases).

It states that the 696 positives include 552 passengers, with the remaining 144 being crew.

This site lists all cases worldwide. It agrees with 696 total cases and gives total deaths as 7 on the Diamond Princess with a further 32 serious or critical, and 325 recovered (so less than the 410 ‘no symptoms‘ on the other page).

The deaths and ‘serious or critical’ figures have not changed for several days, before which there had been one extra death and a few less ‘serious or critical’, while the ‘recovered’ had increased by 70. Unfortunately historical figures don’t seem to be available on this site to track trends, but even if all the ‘serious or critical’ cases end in deaths, which seems highly unlikely, that gives a death rate of only 5.6%. It seems likely that the final figure will be much nearer 1%, and as the bulk of the 552 passengers are likely to have been elderly and many with underlying health issues, this gives a much better picture than some of the higher percentages that have been quoted for older age groups. Presumably these higher figures are due to only more serious cases being detected ‘in the wild’, though of course, as early cases, the cruise liner passengers will have received better care on average than has happened in China or Italy. However, the low death rates in South Korea, which has tested far more thoroughly, do tend to agree.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 01:10   #157
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The most quantified stats are probably those for the Diamond Princess cruise liner in Japan.

This page of Japanese stats quotes 3,618 tested, 696 positive, 410 no symptoms on March 6th and 4,061 tested, 705 positive, 392 no symptoms on March 2nd (so slight discrepancy there probably due to some cases having been moved away and problems reconciling cases).

It states that the 696 positives include 552 passengers, with the remaining 144 being crew.

This site lists all cases worldwide. It agrees with 696 total cases and gives total deaths as 7 on the Diamond Princess with a further 32 serious or critical, and 325 recovered (so less than the 410 ‘no symptoms‘ on the other page).

The deaths and ‘serious or critical’ figures have not changed for several days, before which there had been one extra death and a few less ‘serious or critical’, while the ‘recovered’ had increased by 70. Unfortunately historical figures don’t seem to be available on this site to track trends, but even if all the ‘serious or critical’ cases end in deaths, which seems highly unlikely, that gives a death rate of only 5.6%. It seems likely that the final figure will be much nearer 1%, and as the bulk of the 552 passengers are likely to have been elderly and many with underlying health issues, this gives a much better picture than some of the higher percentages that have been quoted for older age groups. Presumably these higher figures are due to only more serious cases being detected ‘in the wild’, though of course, as early cases, the cruise liner passengers will have received better care on average than has happened in China or Italy. However, the low death rates in South Korea, which has tested far more thoroughly, do tend to agree.
The other things about the cruise ship is that there was no treatment for a significant period, only isolation. So that allowed for an extended incubation period.

Additionally, because of the closed nature of the cruise ship, there were likely multiple repeated infections, so the rate of transmission is probably higher too.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 08:23   #158
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Cheers both & Dave many thanks in particular for your link.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 08:33   #159
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Presumably these higher figures are due to only more serious cases being detected ‘in the wild’, though of course, as early cases, the cruise liner passengers will have received better care on average than has happened in China or Italy. However, the low death rates in South Korea, which has tested far more thoroughly, do tend to agree.
What makes you think the health care in China was on average worse?
I actually think China got a grip on the whole situation thanks to its ability to establish a lot of the necessary infrastructure, while Italy was flooded with patients in hospitals without the necessary intensive care equipment to treat all in the best way.

A good read with a lot of interesting numbers, graphs and the interpretation behind death rates and what is to come:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...XQCoOvK6bUzvD0
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 09:34   #160
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The question of undetected cases is interesting and highly contentious. There is this study from China that days that 97 percent of positive patients shows symptoms eventually, yet there is this super low death rate in the super-testing Korea and these are pretty hard to reconcile. I have seen multiple statements from Korea of "we detect it early so we can treat it early and it's not so deadly" but how does that work since there isn't really a cure? Do thy deploy antivirals widely? This is simply not easy to find out right now. For me the moral is that no single source paints a complete picture - as is rayyher expected for research pertaining to a new phenomenon.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 11:34   #161
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No entry to foreigners to Slovakia and now also to Czech Republic, so don't plan on any birding there. Also no travel out of the countries for citizens and residents. I am still not sure whether blocking movement across arbitrary lines is such a useful target - to me it seems like everyone in V4 has been hoping for an excuse to shut down borders for years now and this is just the point when one appeared conveniently. In other news, my life appears to be headed for an absolute disaster, because in times like these, nobody thinks about people whose life arrangements do not fall into the broad standard categories. Not sure if my ending up living on a street in a yet-to-be decided country helps the spread of the pandemics though.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 12:08   #162
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From the BBC

'Argentina said it would suspend for 30 days flights from all European countries, as well the US, China, Iran, Japan and South Korea, which have also been impacted by the virus.

Peru has suspended for an unspecified period of time all flights from Europe and Asia while Paraguay is cancelling all direct flights to and from Europe until 26 March.

Venezuela had already suspended all flights from Europe for a month.'

So bang go any planned tours there.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 12:13   #163
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'social distancing' - been practicing this way before the pandemic.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 12:32   #164
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'social distancing' - been practicing this way before the pandemic.
Most birders do....

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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 12:36   #165
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Just in: EU commission is against border closures within EU, claim that epidemiologists consider such measures ineffective. However I can't see the Czech government giving up easily, they have already blocked measures to redistribute refugees etc... the whole V4 is simply not that hot on EU integration. But there is some hope that this nationalist approach will be eventually turned around by the EU. In any case, I wouldn't count on crossing ANY borders in the near future. Poland has yet to move on this, but I think the possibility of it getting closed as well is high - and I know foreigners come here for spring birding relatively often - so don't make any such plans this year if you hold your money dear.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 12:46   #166
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Just in: EU commission is against border closures within EU, claim that epidemiologists consider such measures ineffective. However I can't see the Czech government giving up easily, they have already blocked measures to redistribute refugees etc... the whole V4 is simply not that hot on EU integration. But there is some hope that this nationalist approach will be eventually turned around by the EU. In any case, I wouldn't count on crossing ANY borders in the near future. Poland has yet to move on this, but I think the possibility of it getting closed as well is high - and I know foreigners come here for spring birding relatively often - so don't make any such plans this year if you hold your money dear.
Like it was in the UK you mean.....

What descretion do EU, Schengen signatory states have in unilaterally closing a border, there will be pushback from the EU I think?
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 12:57   #167
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Like it was in the UK you mean.....

What descretion do EU, Schengen signatory states have in unilaterally closing a border, there will be pushback from the EU I think?
Well there are two things: Schengen Treaty and EU free movement, these look interchangeable superficially but are not. Normally even countries that are not signatory to Schengen, but are EU member, are legally obliged to let an EU citizen in. Back in the day when UK was an EU member, there was simply no way for me to be denied entry, even though I had to submit to a border check - upon submitting valid documentation I was guaranteed entry (unlike a non-EU foreigner).

Now in Schengen Treaty, I know that there are provisions to reinstate border controls temporarily - this has happened repeatedly in the past mainly due to security reasons, such as the Pope's visit to Poland or some international summit attracting anti-globalist protesters etc. However this checks were still freely permeable to EU citizens unless they had outstanding warrants or some personal restrictions from a country (which was possible). I am completely in the dark when it comes to the next step of actually blocking EU citizens of crossing and I don't think this has ever happened. We'll see though.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 13:06   #168
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Eyes are a major entry point for Covid-19, so don't share your scopes and microscopes.

We just got word yesterday that my university will be shut down for the time being...no clue if it's 4 weeks or the entire semester.

On the birding from, the Wisconsin Ornithological Society has cancelled all field trip until the end of May, which scuttles one of my weekend plans. No word yet on what the local birding club might do, but I wouldn't be surprised if they cancel their meeting/trips.

I can't help but feel that the only reason the pandemic is happening is due to the fact I actually have an international birding trip in two months, and that I have just recently started seeing someone romantically. Literally, this pandemic could have come out at practically any point in the 5 years, and my normal social distancing self would have just shrugged and prepared to spend more time watching Netflix....
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 13:25   #169
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I think it's safe to say that with travel restrictions being applied by numerous countries daily at present that overseas birding will be off the table, at least for the next few months at least. I looked at back up plans to my failed Israel trip and each one of those on a very short list has been removed in a very short period of time.

Domestic birding can continue but I don't think it'll be long before locations such as Scilly, Shetland and other isolated communities introduce restrictions on travelling to/from them and that will lead to birding at prime sites at peak times off the table as well.

I'm due to go to Fair Isle in late May but it's not inconceivable that the island could become off limits to all visitors during all of this, the islanders wouldn't want someone bringing the virus to the island, the population being very small and with no medical facilities other than the nurse.

I think before to long many of us may struggle to get to even our local patches let alone to the other end of the country or the other side of the world.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 13:36   #170
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Thinking about it, if I actually do become homeless because of it, I may as well pitch a tent on some good site. So maybe this will actually boost my birding!
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 15:18   #171
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If this is the UK's stance on the coronavirus, then I would think it's game over for overseas travel on the part of British birders at least for the foreseeable future:

https://twitter.com/13sarahmurphy/st...195841/photo/1

I am not qualified to comment on whether this makes sense from a medical/economic standpoint, but if the idea is to let the epidemic run its course, infecting large numbers of people until herd immunity is achieved, then I would think that pretty much every other country in the world that's adopting a more aggressive approach will ban all travel to/from the UK for quite some time
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 15:19   #172
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Thinking about it, if I actually do become homeless because of it, I may as well pitch a tent on some good site. So maybe this will actually boost my birding!
Is that the Polish version of "when life gives you lemons, make lemonade!" ?
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 15:22   #173
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Domestic birding can continue ...
If you are not in lockdown that is ....

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I think before to long many of us may struggle to get to even our local patches let alone to the other end of the country or the other side of the world.
exactly
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 15:24   #174
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If this is the UK's stance on the coronavirus, then I would think it's game over for overseas travel on the part of British birders at least for the foreseeable future:

https://twitter.com/13sarahmurphy/st...195841/photo/1

I am not qualified to comment on whether this makes sense from a medical/economic standpoint, but if the idea is to let the epidemic run its course, infecting large numbers of people until herd immunity is achieved, then I would think that pretty much every other country in the world that's adopting a more aggressive approach will ban all travel to/from the UK for quite some time
I can kind of see the reasoning behind it.

They're stating that if we go into lockdown now, we'll have to stay in lockdown for months and months, with the problems that will cause, and then a new wave may occur anyway.

I wonder if it's too late, and we're all going to get it anyway?

Measures to protect the elderly, and automatic self-isolation for anyone feeling ill or having come into contact with anyone with it may be more effective than worrying about catching it from random strangers. No handshaking, washing hands and other measures etc of course. (I imagine none of this was happening in Iran or Italy until too late??)

But it doesn't seem a popular idea. Unfortunately it's all unknown territory.
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Old Friday 13th March 2020, 15:25   #175
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Is that the Polish version of "when life gives you lemons, make lemonade!" ?
In the last 4 years life has given me pretty much every citrus imaginable, so yep, this is how I have to be thinking nowadays ...

Meanwhile, talk of closing Polish borders intensifies. Ukraine closes soon if I understood correctly.
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