Well presumably because an increase in songbirds as a direct result of the cull would be pretty hard eveidence that it was a success or am i missing something?
Whatever the results of a single study, as biological and medical researchers well know, correlation of results and circumstances is always difficult to turn into a case for causation, even when studies are numerous, sample sizes are large, and variables have been taken into account; subsequent in-house critiques and the mandatory pre-publication peer-review critiques of studies are the norm in organisations such as the BTO just to test how strong or how weak the links between correlation and causation are.
Post-publication criticism gnerally comes in two kinds: that based on the strength or shortcomings of the science, and that based on opinion, misunderstanding of the science, whether genuine or wilful (
eg the conspiracy theory approach resorted to when commissioned research does not fulfil preconceptions), or an inability to perceive the context in which the research took place.
In terms of scientific ethics (not the ethics of killing or not killing), any organisation claiming scientific respectability has to start out from the position outlined above and not evade questions about methodoly and data. Songbird Survival decided not to accept findings from research they commissioned - that's their right - but their refusal to argue their case for their rejection on the grounds of flawed scientific or statistical method by citing appropriate published authorities suggests that their approach is less likely to be valid.
I'll go back a couple of decades for an illustrative example. When Song Thrush numbers plummeted, there were any number of well-meaning groups that 'knew' (and campaigned hard on the basis of that knowledge) why this was. The claimed reasons given (there were several, some incompatible) rubbished reasoned arguments that no one could explain any correlation as causation, but being largely pre-Web, vituperative condemnation of the science was by snail-mail (Ah, the nostalgic days when loonies obligingly wrote in green ink!) to the research organisations or to the newspapers.
Patient research of 50 years of data showed: no reduction in clutch size; no reduction in hatching rate; no reduction in fledging rate and no reduction in adult survival rate, all factors that would have been affected by poisoning or reduced reproduction by chemical ingestion. The context of the main critics was that spraying of crops 'was poisoning our birds', the kind of hysteria that occurs even more often today from belief in opinion and not in evidence.
It was a double irony that chemical usage on crops
was actually involved, but that that usage was as a result of the replacement of broad-spectrum sprays by non-persistent targeted sprays or pellets. Narrow-spectrum molluscicides had become extremely effective, but only adult Song Thrushes had sufficient adaptability to seek an alternative diet in alternative habitats. First-year birds were endogenously 'programmed' to the ideal diet of slugs and snails in semi-open or open habitats and so starved. I seem to remember that first-year mortality was about 97%, unsustainable.
Extraordinarily careful research resulted in a recovery strategy, but I still find people who not only remain angry about 'pesticides poisoning out Song Thrushes', but also are convinced that 'they' just did another cover-up.
So Adam, a long, illustrative answer to your query. In short, you are completely wrong to 'presume' at this early stage that a correlation between an increase in numbers and culling would represent a causal link. My reasons lie in that part of my motto, 'Biology
is messy', and so almost always demand a long answer, no matter how many people want an instant 'yes' or 'no', and it won't always be the answer you (or I) want,
MJB