Pale line looks perfect for fresh juvenile indeed, but than again I would expect a much darker juvenile plumage in juvenile and more orange head (which can be bleached by now), also juvenile greater coverts with light tips should be worn away almost completely by now in juvenile, so to me it does not look straightforward juvie.
Clean plumage in adults in winter in species which undergo complete moult in autumn and winter is ok for adults too and pic is recent. And second calendar birds should show more white bases to underwing primaries
In summary: a mess