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Corona virus threat to birding

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Old Friday 20th March 2020, 15:15   #526
Farnboro John
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Sadly John, that is highly likely. Our Police could well be diverted to other " higher priority" incidents very soon, rather than investigate wildlife crimes combined with far fewer public pairs of eyes and eyes out and about. There will be some wildlife winners and losers during this crisis.and I'd imagine many conservation projects will be suspended and / or cancelled.
If anybody really fancies a conspiracy theory, we have got a Tory government at the moment....

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Old Friday 20th March 2020, 16:08   #527
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There will be some wildlife winners and losers during this crisis.and I'd imagine many conservation projects will be suspended and / or cancelled.
Our Lanner surveillance camps have been obviously cancelled. Occasional visits with temporary permits by one or two volunteers will be possible but not the full-time surveillance that was needed to deter the poachers/falconers. In Sicily where the number of camps for Lanner and for Bonelli's Eagle is 20 times the ones in Tuscany it's going to be even worse. And even if we are in lockdown and people are not supposed to travel, the villains will find a way especially as pyrtle says police will be busy elsewhere
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Old Friday 20th March 2020, 16:17   #528
IAN JAMES THOMPSON
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Unless you use hides, I can't see increased risk from being outside birding. Additionally, if you fill up at the same place, it matters not whether you bird your patch or a hundred miles away. Social distancing does not have to mean mouldering indoors.
It depends whether the UK will have a complete shutdown like Italy. At this moment I’m self isolating, because of my medical condition. I’m normally out every week birdwatching, but my health is more important. I just hope this ends sooner than later, although I’m pessimistic about this at the present time.
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Old Friday 20th March 2020, 16:30   #529
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"The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) recommended alternating between more and less strict measures for most of a year."

Eat, sleep, work, repeat....
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Old Friday 20th March 2020, 17:20   #530
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If anybody really fancies a conspiracy theory, we have got a Tory government at the moment....
John
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...f-man-11960799

Ignorance by the individual, Manx policing or sign of things to come. Beggars belief by the hour.
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Old Friday 20th March 2020, 19:02   #531
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Just got word that my April trip to Israel was finally cancelled. Not surprised by any stretch.

I think the US State Dept. raising the travel warning level to "Do not travel" for the entire world, pushed them over the edge.

Stay safe, everyone.
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Old Friday 20th March 2020, 23:37   #532
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My understanding is that the research group has zero expectation of keeping the current measures in place continuously for a full year, but rather lower the infection/new case rate to a certain threshhold, relax restrictions, and potentially add them back in should rates go beyond those levels.

I guess the question is what actual measures will be relaxed. Will travel bans still be in effect even is restaurants reopen?
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 07:33   #533
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Lockdown 'Lifer'

Looks like I completely missed the lockdown ruling in Portugal so went birding. It was a minor diversion, as was not far from the area anyway, more than a complete drive out for nothing. And I got a lifer - Iberian Chiffchaff - now 2 in 3 days (with the Ring Necked Duck pre lockdown on Wednesday).

Bang goes ignorance after having spent Thursday cooped up and not catching the shutdown ruling. On Thursday night people were exercising in the park. Yesterday went to the headland where saw one person in the distance and one other car.

That said I too could not survive on 'birds from the balcony' but I guess thats it for now...
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 08:40   #534
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Apart from the obvious risks to health in the current situation there is surely going to be a huge rise in mental health problems. In the predictions of death rates, I'd add a large increase in suicide numbers.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 08:49   #535
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Rosbifs - nice pics.

Steve - Of course, the mental health strain on everyone is huge and I'll be popping outside shortly for a drive to try and take in some birding to relieve a morning of numbers. Mutual support is clearly the way and within an organisation that has recently put a reasonable amount of resource into mental health first aiders, at least the more recent focus on such things is well timed.

In passing, I comment on yesterday's economic package in the UK. Despite some significant holes, as someone who has spent a fortnight modelling financial effect and in discussions with professional advisers and other people within the same business, it will have a very significant positive impact on cashflow (delaying VAT and the July self-assessment tax payment) and that reduces significantly the deficits within predicted cashflow forecasts. Similarly, the staff support scheme has the prospect of mothballing workers in a paid status and significantly changing calculations around redundancy. Less relevant to us but potentially massive generally. The main hole is probably for those without a positive impact from VAT and self-assessment but hopefully the loan scheme will help those.

All the best
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 08:54   #536
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My understanding is that the research group has zero expectation of keeping the current measures in place continuously for a full year, but rather lower the infection/new case rate to a certain threshhold, relax restrictions, and potentially add them back in should rates go beyond those levels.
I can't understand why it wouldn't come back as soon as the restrictions are relaxed? It's still going to be hiding somewhere in the world.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 08:57   #537
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I can't understand why it wouldn't come back as soon as the restrictions are relaxed? It's still going to be hiding somewhere in the world.
But the hope has to be that we are better armed to deal with it (despite being a unqualified sceptic on most things). Now to pop out. Birds await. I may find a quiet spot to watch some House Sparrows.

All the best
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 08:59   #538
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But the hope has to be that we are better armed to deal with it (despite being a unqualified sceptic on most things).
Well, a vaccine is expected to take a year and a half to develop. Maybe then.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 09:49   #539
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"Pandemic means Pandemic"
"The virus needs us more than we need the virus"
"Let's get pandemic done"
etc

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Pathetic.

Tell Boris Johnson. He's already come out with "we can get this thing done".
The others will no doubt follow. It's what happens when you have a one trick pony running things!
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 10:56   #540
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I'd urge anyone intending a birding trip to the Aviemore region, to boycott this hotel. Migrant workers were shown on the news last night, leaving their on site accommodation with all their belongings after they'd been sacked.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/20/hotel...rror-12430291/

Now saying it was an admin error, yeah right.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 10:56   #541
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But the hope has to be that we are better armed to deal with it (despite being a unqualified sceptic on most things). Now to pop out. Birds await. I may find a quiet spot to watch some House Sparrows.

All the best
My understanding is that it's not a question of buying time to be better armed to deal with it (although this is obviously to be hoped), but to prevent a single large spike in the number of people that overwhelms critical care services. By imposing and then relaxing controls in cycles, the idea is to spread the incidence of infections over a long period at a level that can be dealt with.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 11:12   #542
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My understanding is that the research group has zero expectation of keeping the current measures in place continuously for a full year, but rather lower the infection/new case rate to a certain threshhold, relax restrictions, and potentially add them back in should rates go beyond those levels.

I guess the question is what actual measures will be relaxed. Will travel bans still be in effect even is restaurants reopen?
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I can't understand why it wouldn't come back as soon as the restrictions are relaxed? It's still going to be hiding somewhere in the world.
Absolutely it will.
I have heard it described as an ongoing 'Rollercoaster' for the next year or more, rather than a once off flattening of the curve. This seems to be current government strategy. ie. the same lax restrictions that allowed this to spread will be in place once the infected numbers ramp up again, and then the global economic and lifestyle clamps will come down again - and on and on on this Rollercoaster we will go .....

We now have the over the top situation of Bondi beach being closed because it had more than 500 people on it during some lovely sunny weather the other day. Elsewhere (indoors!) the 4sqm per person advice is in place. I also saw an official social media announcement from Ducati asking people not to ride their bikes. Abject madness.

The OP was concerned with travel for one, and the travel, tourism and hospitality industries have (and will take further) massive hits. Banks though will be happy to have you further indebted, and/or take your assets. Governments are likewise happy to further enslave the masses with their 'relief' and 'stimulus' packages.

How quickly the world has rolled over ........




Chosun

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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 13:00   #543
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My understanding is that it's not a question of buying time to be better armed to deal with it (although this is obviously to be hoped), but to prevent a single large spike in the number of people that overwhelms critical care services. By imposing and then relaxing controls in cycles, the idea is to spread the incidence of infections over a long period at a level that can be dealt with.
Yep...and potentially if you can drop the infection rate low enough, you can do a better job of tracking down sources and isolating them. I believe that is what South Korea has been doing. Granted, I don't think either the US or UK is currently doing nearly as good a job as that country, and I think things are going to be getting a lot worse before they get better.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 13:25   #544
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But the hope has to be that we are better armed to deal with it (despite being a unqualified sceptic on most things). Now to pop out. Birds await. I may find a quiet spot to watch some House Sparrows.
I was deliberately imprecise. For me, 'better armed' to deal with it encompassed many things:-
(i) more understanding and treatment approaches as well as more ventilators;
(ii) more testing capability so the ability to isolate more quickly and accurately; &
(iii) tackling it at a time with less additional capacity demands.

The vaccine 'magic bullet' seems a long way off.

Our usual weekend local café is doing takeaways and we always sat outside in any event so good to catch up with two friends. Two other self-isolating over seventies friends were only available with moth news over WhatsApp. I did visit a couple of House Sparrow colonies but the highlight was a first-summer Red Kite (pale greater covert tips and sub-terminal tail band) which was a patch year tick. Picked up from the car and then intercepted closer further along the road.

After 15 hours working at home on the computer on Wednesday with 237 steps, I am intending to walk to work next week - a circular route to and from my house. A couple of friends have done the same cycling to work this week.

Keep safe & as cheerful as possible

Paul
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 13:44   #545
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What it's like at the hard end - interview with a doctor. Well worth a listen (35 mins).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0877mb2
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 15:56   #546
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I can't understand why it wouldn't come back as soon as the restrictions are relaxed? It's still going to be hiding somewhere in the world.
The virus will die out once all the carriers are isolated until they recover or die. That's what happened with the first SARS and apparently what seems to have happened in China.

The roller coaster occurs if the restrictions are lifted before the virus is extinguished.

However, if the Chinese continue with the exotic meat markets, it or another similar virus is likely to arise again, just like ebola.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 16:35   #547
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My understanding is that we are long long long past the point where we can quarantine and extinguish the virus. The current measures are more to keep the infections rates at a level that hospitals can keep up with them.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 16:41   #548
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My understanding is that we are long long long past the point where we can quarantine and extinguish the virus. The current measures are more to keep the infections rates at a level that hospitals can keep up with them.
This is a very common misconception, fueled by the short-sighted lack of commitment of many governments to extensive contact tracing and testing efforts - short-sighted because any other solution will be more expensive in the long run. The idea of hospitals keeping up simply doesn't work mathematically even in the most prepared countries.

This realization has been circulating for a long time, but there is now a really coherent text about it - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

The takeway is that the later you start realizing that just "flattening the curve" doesn't really do enough, the more expensive it will be.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 16:45   #549
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My understanding is that we are long long long past the point where we can quarantine and extinguish the virus. The current measures are more to keep the infections rates at a level that hospitals can keep up with them.
The current measures are definitely for the purpose you state.

Whether the virus will extinguish after rampaging through the population is still uncertain. It depends on whether people are still infectious after recovering from the virus or not. We don't know that for certain yet, but based on China, they may not be.
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Old Saturday 21st March 2020, 23:46   #550
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This realization has been circulating for a long time, but there is now a really coherent text about it - https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56
Who is this Tomas Pueyo, and why should we be listening to internet rubbish? Just a couple of egregious errors: the projected hospitalization and death rates are exaggerated by orders of magnitude because they're based only on cases that have tested positive, and testing has been hugely inadequate. And there is absolutely NO evidence that the mutations observed so far in C19 are sufficient to interfere with immune response, or any reason to believe that C19 will in the long term behave more like a flu virus than other coronaviruses like SARS, in fact the natural assumption would be quite the reverse. Or that new mutations will be more or equally deadly; the general tendency is the reverse. Fearmongering seems to be working very well for him.

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