Join for FREE
It only takes a minute!
More discoveries. NEW: Zeiss Victory SF 32

Welcome to BirdForum.
BirdForum is the net's largest birding community, dedicated to wild birds and birding, and is absolutely FREE! You are most welcome to register for an account, which allows you to take part in lively discussions in the forum, post your pictures in the gallery and more.

How is the COVID virus affecting you?

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 3 votes, 3.67 average.
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 13:02   #126
Chosun Juan
Given to Fly
 
Chosun Juan's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Central West NSW, Australia
Posts: 7,281
Unhappy

Oh no ! My favourite take-away restaurant shop will soon close indefinitely. I think we are at a serious point when local, family run, quality food outlets are not viable. They a have sit down in store facility, but it is largely a take away, and delivery business. They are officially restricted to takeaway only at the moment, and 4sqm per person inside the shop when ordering. Lovely people.

I was speaking to them today and they said that trade was right down, and they would close on Sunday when current inventory ran out. Last week they said they would open 7 days a week (up from the normal 6) - but that balancing stock ordering with demand was really difficult. I try and give my patronage to as many small businesses as possible. This is really concerning.

Anyway, I hope everyone and their friends and family are safe and well and that this type of thing is the worst that people are facing .....




Chosun

Last edited by Chosun Juan : Friday 27th March 2020 at 13:12. Reason: Spellun n dat
Chosun Juan is offline  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2016 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Friday 27th March 2020, 13:18   #127
Mysticete
Registered User
 
Mysticete's Avatar

 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Wisconsin
Posts: 3,747
Yep...my dentist sent out an email saying that I think they are suspending routine teeth cleanings, check ups, and so on through April. However, most dentists are still available for emergencies...just something to keep in mind if you develop a tooth ache or similar problem.

Thankfully I got a haircut not long before lockdown, but yeah I am going to be pretty shaggy by the end of this. I feel like every day I realize some little thing I took for granted is now adversely affected.
__________________
World: 1195, ABA: 628
Last Lifer: Connecticut Warbler
Last ABA: Connecticut Warbler
Mammal: 230 Herp: 174
Mysticete is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 13:34   #128
ClarkWGriswold
Carpe Carpum
BF Supporter 2020
 
ClarkWGriswold's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Caerbannog
Posts: 9,841
Blog Entries: 3
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
Oh no ! My favourite take-away restaurant shop will soon close indefinitely. I think we are at a serious point when local, family run, quality food outlets are not viable. They a have sit down in store facility, but it is largely a take away, and delivery business. They are officially restricted to takeaway only at the moment, and 4sqm per person inside the shop when ordering. Lovely people.

I was speaking to them today and they said that trade was right down, and they would close on Sunday when current inventory ran out. Last week they said they would open 7 days a week (up from the normal 6) - but that balancing stock ordering with demand was really difficult. I try and give my patronage to as many small businesses as possible. This is really concerning.

Anyway, I hope everyone and their friends and family are safe and well and that this type of thing is the worst that people are facing .....




Chosun
Just ordered a takeaway from our local restaurant for tonight CJ. Trying to support local businesses and it’s delicious.

Rich
__________________
"It's a million-to-one-chance, but it might just work" - Fred Colon, Carrot Ironfoundersson, Nobby Nobbs
ClarkWGriswold is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Friday 27th March 2020, 15:03   #129
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mysticete View Post
Thankfully I got a haircut not long before lockdown, but yeah I am going to be pretty shaggy by the end of this. I feel like every day I realize some little thing I took for granted is now adversely affected.
I last had a haircut in 2013 and I trim my own beard (nobody but me puts blades near my throat!)

Don't panic.

John
Farnboro John is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 15:06   #130
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 18,029
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
I last had a haircut in 2013 and I trim my own beard (nobody but me puts blades near my throat!)

Don't panic.

John
So, we have a bald bloke with sticking plaster all over his face.......
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 15:55   #131
tenex
Registered User
 
tenex's Avatar

 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Colorado
Posts: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Lister View Post
Just had a text from my dental practice cancelling my appointment (check-up) in July. No reason given but I guess it must be down to the virus. Four months away puts the current three weeks into perspective.

I wouldn't fancy being a dentist at the moment.
Imagine the level of exposure involved. I think it's heroic that my dentist is still offering necessary services, just not routine cleaning.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deb Burhinus View Post
It’s still unsettling when leaders test positive (The Health Secretary too)
Why do so few still seem to understand that this is very good news? Look how many prominent people are becoming infected and not winding up in hospital, even Prince Charles at 71. [Mods please allow that to stand, it's important!] We can finally begin to grasp how widely the virus has already spread, and with how few serious complications. Both anecdotally, and for those willing to pay attention to the latest scientific studies (50% of UK already, 70% of an Italian town). The challenge is not to fight, fight, fight that spread, but to understand how the few more serious cases arise that will wind up in hospital and try to avoid those more specifically.

Edit: I just want to add that in the time it took me to write that message, half a dozen others were posted that I didn't see before, for anyone who hasn't noticed that. Very high activity, and a challenge to follow.

Last edited by tenex : Friday 27th March 2020 at 16:01.
tenex is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 17:00   #132
peter.jones
You may say I'm a dreamer.. but I'm not the only one

 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hants
Posts: 1,562
Quote:
Originally Posted by tenex View Post
Imagine the level of exposure involved. I think it's heroic that my dentist is still offering necessary services, just not routine cleaning.


Why do so few still seem to understand that this is very good news? Look how many prominent people are becoming infected and not winding up in hospital, even Prince Charles at 71. [Mods please allow that to stand, it's important!] We can finally begin to grasp how widely the virus has already spread, and with how few serious complications. Both anecdotally, and for those willing to pay attention to the latest scientific studies (50% of UK already, 70% of an Italian town). The challenge is not to fight, fight, fight that spread, but to understand how the few more serious cases arise that will wind up in hospital and try to avoid those more specifically.

Edit: I just want to add that in the time it took me to write that message, half a dozen others were posted that I didn't see before, for anyone who hasn't noticed that. Very high activity, and a challenge to follow.
where are you getting 50% of uk?
__________________
Blogging since 2006!: https://pdjwildlife.blogspot.com/
peter.jones is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 17:19   #133
dantheman
Bah humbug
 
dantheman's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Cornwall
Posts: 13,045
Blog Entries: 2
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter.jones View Post
where are you getting 50% of uk?
I think it's an idea that's been mooted, with absolutely no proof, on the basis that lots of people have met lots of other people.

Antibody testing might tell you what the figure is, but I believe that is some way off rolling out for the population.
__________________
stithiansreservoirbirding.blogspot.co.uk/ - last update 10/11/15 - really rather remarkable still!!!
dantheman is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 17:46   #134
Scridifer
Registered User
BF Supporter 2020
 
Scridifer's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Byala/Essex
Posts: 11,181
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter.jones View Post
where are you getting 50% of uk?
A model from Oxford University by a professor of virology published a couple of days ago.

Chris
__________________
Latest Lifers: Plain Swift - Black-bellied Sandgrouse - Jack Snipe
My 2020 List
Latest Patch Tick: Icterine Warbler Latest Garden Tick: Lesser Spotted Eagle
Scridifer is online now  
Reply With Quote

BF Supporter 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Support BirdForum With A Donation

Old Friday 27th March 2020, 17:55   #135
peter.jones
You may say I'm a dreamer.. but I'm not the only one

 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hants
Posts: 1,562
Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman View Post
I think it's an idea that's been mooted, with absolutely no proof, on the basis that lots of people have met lots of other people.

Antibody testing might tell you what the figure is, but I believe that is some way off rolling out for the population.
also, it will be disproved when the current figures more than double.
probably before the end of next week the rate it is accelerating here.

So official identified cases 12k, 50% theory will be nonsense when that number goes past 24k.
__________________
Blogging since 2006!: https://pdjwildlife.blogspot.com/
peter.jones is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 17:59   #136
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
So, we have a bald bloke with sticking plaster all over his face.......
Not really.... pic from Shetland a couple of years ago. Hair length greater, beard not dissimilar.

John
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	45248928651_0ed565f7c0_o.jpg
Views:	32
Size:	430.2 KB
ID:	722357  
Farnboro John is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:02   #137
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 18,029
The actual infection figure is clearly very much higher. The amount of high profile people that are positive having been tested, versus the average man who can't get a test unless they're at deaths door. The figure has to be significantly higher with many of thoses infected, having had such mild symptoms that they don't realise they've had it.
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:03   #138
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 18,029
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
Not really.... pic from Shetland a couple of years ago. Hair length greater, beard not dissimilar.

John
I actually recognise you from my twitching days, all you need is a hat with a couple of cow horns.
__________________
Andy A
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:07   #139
dantheman
Bah humbug
 
dantheman's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Cornwall
Posts: 13,045
Blog Entries: 2
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
The actual infection figure is clearly very much higher. The amount of high profile people that are positive having been tested, versus the average man who can't get a test unless they're at deaths door. The figure has to be significantly higher with many of thoses infected, having had such mild symptoms that they don't realise they've had it.
Except a lot of those are in London, and have been doing a lot more mixing than ordinary mortals ... (but yes, plenty more will have and will show symptoms soon)
__________________
stithiansreservoirbirding.blogspot.co.uk/ - last update 10/11/15 - really rather remarkable still!!!
dantheman is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:14   #140
peter.jones
You may say I'm a dreamer.. but I'm not the only one

 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hants
Posts: 1,562
Quote:
Originally Posted by dantheman View Post
Except a lot of those are in London, and have been doing a lot more mixing than ordinary mortals ... (but yes, plenty more will have and will show symptoms soon)
But again, if we assume 50% have had it, and we "detected" 12k. Then when we have "detected" 24k, 100% of the population will have had the disease...
Or the 50% assumption is wrong.
__________________
Blogging since 2006!: https://pdjwildlife.blogspot.com/
peter.jones is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:21   #141
Deb Burhinus
Registered User

 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 652
Referring to an earlier post - High numbers of the population being infected is NOT GOOD NEWS and saying any one person that any of us has named as infected is ‘good news’ that they are infected is simply immoral when we have absolutely no idea of their prognosis. If anyone thinks Boris Johnson being infected is ‘good news’ tell that to his girlfriend who’s 6 months pregnant and runs the risk of serious complications if she also is infected - Also, anyone who thinks ‘herd immunity through infection of most of the population is the best way to cope with this outbreak A/ don’t understand that coronavirus antibodies have potentially a very short shelf life so may offer very little in longterm immunity b/ The NHS simply won’t cope as infection rates soar - as those needing moderate to acute care will increase and increasing fatalities are likely to occur in non-viral related accidents and disease because the NHS has all but buckled under the strain of coping with c19.

The amount of c*ap in some posts on these threads is unbelievable
__________________
___________________________
ORNITHOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF THE MIDDLE EAST
THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
http://www.osme.org

Last edited by Deb Burhinus : Friday 27th March 2020 at 18:44.
Deb Burhinus is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:23   #142
Farnboro John
Registered User

 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Farnborough
Posts: 14,579
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
I actually recognise you from my twitching days, all you need is a hat with a couple of cow horns.
Kind of you to say so!

John
Farnboro John is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:24   #143
Deb Burhinus
Registered User

 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 652
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
The actual infection figure is clearly very much higher. The amount of high profile people that are positive having been tested, versus the average man who can't get a test unless they're at deaths door. The figure has to be significantly higher with many of thoses infected, having had such mild symptoms that they don't realise they've had it.
this was my thinking too - suggests too community transmission may have been circulating much earlier than thought
__________________
___________________________
ORNITHOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF THE MIDDLE EAST
THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
http://www.osme.org
Deb Burhinus is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:28   #144
peter.jones
You may say I'm a dreamer.. but I'm not the only one

 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hants
Posts: 1,562
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
The actual infection figure is clearly very much higher. The amount of high profile people that are positive having been tested, versus the average man who can't get a test unless they're at deaths door. The figure has to be significantly higher with many of thoses infected, having had such mild symptoms that they don't realise they've had it.
you're right Andy, the actual uk figure is somewhere between 12,000 and 60 million or whatever the uk population is these days.

I wouldn't be surprised if I had it from London a month ago! high temp. Banging headache, cough. If I had the symptoms this week, I'd have been in isolation for sure. But I'll probably never know for sure.
__________________
Blogging since 2006!: https://pdjwildlife.blogspot.com/
peter.jones is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 18:37   #145
Xenospiza
Undescribed
 
Xenospiza's Avatar

 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: In a drawer
Posts: 11,076
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
The actual infection figure is clearly very much higher. The amount of high profile people that are positive having been tested, versus the average man who can't get a test unless they're at deaths door. The figure has to be significantly higher with many of thoses infected, having had such mild symptoms that they don't realise they've had it.
Hm... Let's make a very rough calculation. Bear with me, it's Friday night and it's been a hectic week (didn't see a single bird while working from home today). Not allowed to drink as I'm on call, so that's one excuse I cannot use...

So: even Germans are complaining that they aren't getting tested, although the positive test vs. death rate is 167:1 (cf. Italy: 9:1).

I think you can easily multiply the number of carriers by an extra 10 (a very crude approximation from cases doubling every three days + people getting ill after on average 10 days) – and who knows how many people don't really suffer.
That leads me to crude approximation #2: 2000 carriers per death.

Italy would then be close to 20 million carriers: Lombardia and Veneto have 14 million inhabitants, so you'd really hope that the number of cases would start to drop.

These numbers even startle myself actually. Please someone point out the flaws!
Xenospiza is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 19:06   #146
peter.jones
You may say I'm a dreamer.. but I'm not the only one

 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Hants
Posts: 1,562
anywhere where you've made an assumption could be a flaw, you've made a few assumptions along the way. We all have, I don't mean that nastily.
I'm not convinced about people having it and barely showing symptoms.
Compare with flu, some people die, lots don't die, but most people who have had flu (proper flu!) tend to remember it for life.
__________________
Blogging since 2006!: https://pdjwildlife.blogspot.com/
peter.jones is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 19:09   #147
opisska
Jan Ebr
 
opisska's Avatar

 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Warszawa
Posts: 1,782
The main flaw is that the deaths lag behind the infections by at least three weeks and thus the death/infections ratio at any given moment is dependent on the history of the infection in the last three weeks. Thus it is expexted to be higher in Italy than in Germany, because in Italy, the disease significantly slowed down in apreading two weeks ago (as seen by the stabilisation of new case rates observed now) while in Germany it probabbly hasn't. Thus it also doesn't make much sense to use German numbers as a "correction" to Italian ones.

Furthermore, even in Korea, the mortality is about 1 percent. These are thr best numbers - the fact that the tracing a testing had any effect whatsoever means that it has been effective. If they were getting only a small fraction of cases, it wouldn't have led to the sharo decline in new cases, it would have been a pointless excercise. Thus, the disease is unlikely to be fatal to less than 1 percent of people, so any hypothesis of massively hidden cases runs into the problem of "where are the dead people".

Still the mortality is 10x higher in Italy than in Korea so there may as well be 10x the carriers than reported, but that's still "only" a million of people. As the mortality has surely beeen compounded by overwhelmed care in Italy, it should be less.
__________________
Final life lists:
Birds: world 2168, WP 563, gWP 600, bird photos
Mammals: 257, mammal photos
opisska is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Friday 27th March 2020, 19:56   #148
andyadcock
Registered User
 
andyadcock's Avatar

 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: UK and Occasionally St Petersburg, Russia
Posts: 18,029
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter.jones View Post
anywhere where you've made an assumption could be a flaw, you've made a few assumptions along the way. We all have, I don't mean that nastily.
I'm not convinced about people having it and barely showing symptoms.
Compare with flu, some people die, lots don't die, but most people who have had flu (proper flu!) tend to remember it for life.
Flu is a massively, over used term, most who say they have flu, just have a cold.

BoJo looked ok on the box tonight and there are several footballers who've had it, plus other celebs. What's happening with JC Junker, he's an old fella and he's got / had it?

My wife and I have both had numerous coughs, colds and infections this winter, we speculated that it hadn't been cold enough to hold down the viruses, I certainly rarely get colds but this winter has been a bad one for me and eery time we take our toddler to playgroup, we've all ended up sick a few days later.
__________________
Andy A

Last edited by andyadcock : Friday 27th March 2020 at 19:59.
andyadcock is online now  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 02:31   #149
tenex
Registered User
 
tenex's Avatar

 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Colorado
Posts: 814
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deb Burhinus View Post
Referring to an earlier post - High numbers of the population being infected is NOT GOOD NEWS and saying any one person that any of us has named as infected is ‘good news’ that they are infected is simply immoral...
My, you get so easily into this state that you must really enjoy it. Others are less likely to.

It's good news when people are infected without severe complications. Surely you're aware that the virus is expected to spread to the majority of the population; by declaring it awful that these individuals should have it, do you mean you had others in mind? (Are you really thinking at all?) By what supernatural means are you convinced that herd immunity can't be the solution? Where do you get the idea that "coronavirus antibodies have potentially a very short shelf life"? It seems to be estimated somewhere between 2 years for MERS and 10 for SARS, which would suffice. Most importantly, infection rates aren't the problem; hospitalization is. The two aren't in a fixed ratio, and one without the other is in the long run a good thing. The variability must lie in how some people's immune systems get overwhelmed sending them to the hospital when the vast majority simply cope with mild or no symptoms, which is likely due to the magnitude of the initial viral exposure (or to immunodeficiency) as with many other viruses. Even the much-discussed elderly can have only a mild case.

I don't really expect coherent responses to any of the above because you don't seem to produce them, only repetition.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deb Burhinus View Post
The amount of c*ap in some posts on these threads is unbelievable
A remark more revealing than helpful...

Last edited by tenex : Saturday 28th March 2020 at 04:14. Reason: Brevity
tenex is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Saturday 28th March 2020, 06:56   #150
Troubador
Moderator
 
Troubador's Avatar

 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 10,076
Quote:
Originally Posted by Farnboro John View Post
I last had a haircut in 2013 and I trim my own beard (nobody but me puts blades near my throat!)

Don't panic.

John
Yesterday I cut Troubadoris's hair and she cut mine, but this is something we have done all our married lives (48 years last December).

Lee
__________________
"You are never alone, with a sheep"
Troubador is offline  
Reply With Quote
Advertisement
Reply


Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Warning of Parasite affecting Hedgehogs Peewit Conservation 0 Sunday 12th August 2012 21:20
How is climate change affecting birds? (BTO) BF Newsroom Latest news from the BTO 0 Saturday 16th July 2011 14:35
Adverts affecting web speeds JTweedie Computers, Birding Software And The Internet 4 Thursday 20th January 2011 11:00
Oil spill in North Sea now affecting seabirds Julian Bell Live Bird News from around the World 3 Friday 21st December 2007 07:06
ED/HDF Glass affecting RBI/Twilight factor cassowary Spotting Scopes & tripod/heads 2 Thursday 20th April 2006 09:55

{googleads}

Fatbirder's Top 1000 Birding Websites

Help support BirdForum

Page generated in 0.24534893 seconds with 40 queries
All times are GMT. The time now is 18:41.