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Corona virus threat to birding

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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 00:48   #426
Chosun Juan
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..... global shortage of toilet rolls on shop shelves because a few Aussies decided early on that the worse thing about a pandemic was not being able to clean your bum, ......
Surely that is an attempt at humour ?
A "global" shortage ?
Does Australia have that much purchasing power ? Or ..... Is the world that susceptible to programming ?






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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 01:42   #427
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Some interesting news articles - apols they are mostly UK based.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51915302 (An interesting graph)

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/...have-covid-19/ (probaby around 55,000 cases in UK (testing figures give 1950))

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-17/...mental-health/ (mental health issues in China)
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 01:43   #428
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Surely that is an attempt at humour ?
I thought so
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 01:48   #429
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Surely that is an attempt at humour ?
A "global" shortage ?
Does Australia have that much purchasing power ? Or ..... Is the world that susceptible to programming ?
Yes, Locally & Nationally in various locations around the globe, No, Yes ?

Australia has to lead the world in some areas!

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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 02:03   #430
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Some interesting news articles - apols they are mostly UK based.
That image of BJ in your first link Dan, says it all - I wonder how close they are to dropping the ball ?(if they haven’t already)

The impact of how the world is responding to this pandemic, let alone the disease itself, is going to cause untold mental health problems and longterm instability.

(Don’t forget to give yourself a break from all the news - there’s some excellent instagram posts coming online from bands and musicians who’ve had to cancel concerts - just listened to half an hour of Chris Martin playing in his living room https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbTEXxcoiE0
and Keith Urban with Nicole Kidman dancing in the background https://pagesix.com/2020/03/17/keith...heir-basement/ brilliant stuff )
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 02:07   #431
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Haven't seen any modelling ....
This article is a couple of weeks old now - it is interesting to compare the modelling, transmission rates to actual events now. It seems that fatality rates even vary by country within like age demographics - I haven't seen any research to explain that yet.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...d5aytWtilHvYLM






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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 02:26   #432
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Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
This article is a couple of weeks old now - it is interesting to compare the modelling, transmission rates to actual events now. It seems that fatality rates even vary by country within like age demographics - I haven't seen any research to explain that yet.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...d5aytWtilHvYLM

Interesting, Ta.

According to Xenospiza on another thread Germany has c5 times the number of intensive care beds per capita that the Netherlands has (if I read that correctly)

According to World-o-meter,
Germany has 9365 total cases, 26 deaths
Netherlands has 1705 total cases, 43 deaths.

If all else was equal, ie roughly similar stage of the cycle (and the health service was stretched in the Netherlands) ...
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 03:02   #433
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I caught a snippet of the news (accidently ! :) while flicking around, and saw an old Italian lady with the illness who had just been booted out of hospital because her symptoms were classified as too mild (the day after her husband unfortunately died of the illness in hospital). She was sitting down outside in the sun quite visibly distressed and gasping for breath, though she was surrounded by her 3 children all wearing masks.

Despite how upset and confused she was, I remember thinking good, at least you're going to live.

Interesting article:
"Coronavirus and the Sun: a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic"
https://medium.com/@ra.hobday/corona...QguwKjEYmD_pMk







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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 05:43   #434
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The reality is that you are likely to not be able to go outside for several months now. If you (as a youngish person) did catch the coronavirus it would most likely not do you serious harm.

If the elderly could be highly protected as the utmost priority, that would make the most sense imo. If the systems we have in the western world collapse, consequences could be more severe down the line.


As viruses go, I don't know how the chance of it mutating increases - is it time, or number of infection cycles (ie individuals)?
To what point do we have to fall, globally, before they have to say 'ok, back to normal but expect acceptable losses'?

Would we sacrifice 3 million people globally and 250,000 in the UK to keep the World going and not plunge it in to poverty and anarchy because from what I've see, this is where where headed.
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 06:20   #435
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Lightbulb

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Originally Posted by andyadcock View Post
To what point do we have to fall, globally, before they have to say 'ok, back to normal but expect acceptable losses'?

Would we sacrifice 3 million people globally and 250,000 in the UK to keep the World going and not plunge it in to poverty and anarchy because from what I've see, this is where where headed.
You have to remember that the monetary system is a fictitious concept.

There is no reason that emergency funding could not be 'created' for everyone to cover a pause it normal activities (investment/debt obligations etc)

Maybe as people self isolate they'll contemplate the whole kit and kaboodle ......




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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 06:39   #436
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Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
Surely that is an attempt at humour ?
A "global" shortage ?
Does Australia have that much purchasing power ? Or ..... Is the world that susceptible to programming ?






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Answers to all your questions:

Yes*
No
No
Yes! (Those with Facebook or other social media, anyway )

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* And an important part of resistance to humans finding out we do have top predators. They are very small but they follow classical prey choices: the old and the weak and the sick.
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 06:45   #437
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One of the allowed reasons for going out in France is
Physical exercise. Unlike Spain, where this is banned, trips outside the home to take exercise are still allowed. However there are some conditions - you have to go on your own and cannot play group sports. So going for a run alone is OK, going to play street football is not. If you have a dog, you are also allowed to walk it.
A walk with a pair of bins would presumably be counted as exercise.
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 06:56   #438
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Interesting, Ta.

According to Xenospiza on another thread Germany has c5 times the number of intensive care beds per capita that the Netherlands has (if I read that correctly)
Correct. Ireland and UK close to the Netherlands though.
The issue in Germany is more likely lack of nurses!
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 07:52   #439
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One of the allowed reasons for going out in France is
Physical exercise. Unlike Spain, where this is banned, trips outside the home to take exercise are still allowed. However there are some conditions - you have to go on your own and cannot play group sports. So going for a run alone is OK, going to play street football is not. If you have a dog, you are also allowed to walk it.
A walk with a pair of bins would presumably be counted as exercise.
I think some people here are in a different World to me. I've just spent 40 minutes queuing for essentials and all you lot can waffle about is birding opportunities and dog walking, are you not affected yet?

I did find a freshly dead Magpie on the way back and pondered the historically attached omens but that didn't stop me from taking it's pristine, tail feathers which my wife will get arty with.

Was also offered my first elbow bump in lieu of a handshake today too.
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 08:01   #440
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I think some people here are in a different World to me. I've just spent 40 minutes queuing for essentials and all you lot can waffle about is birding opportunities and dog walking, are you not affected yet?
It is Birdforum and it is a thread specifically about the threat to birding due to Coronavirus. If you want to waffle about something else, feel free to do so elsewhere.
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 08:05   #441
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It is Birdforum and it is a thread specifically about the threat to birding due to Coronavirus. If you want to waffle about something else, feel free to do so elsewhere.
Your'e back I see, haven't missed your usual crap, one miserable individual you are.

You were bleating about border queues and putting blood and the hands of Poland the other day, very birdy.
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 08:10   #442
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Seeing how people are already hating each other while being "lock down" just on an internet forum, I am not that surprised by the reports of increased divorce rates in China :)
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 08:21   #443
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Be civil please, no need to start being offensive, more people self isolating or working from home, means more people on the net, there is room for everyone on BF, but not with an attitude, life is tough enough at the moment and may get tougher, so please tone it down or ignore people who are going to wind you up.

#beniceor****off.com

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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 08:36   #444
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I think some people here are in a different World to me. I've just spent 40 minutes queuing for essentials and all you lot can waffle about is birding opportunities and dog walking, are you not affected yet?

I did find a freshly dead Magpie on the way back and pondered the historically attached omens but that didn't stop me from taking it's pristine, tail feathers which my wife will get arty with.

Was also offered my first elbow bump in lieu of a handshake today too.
It's been said, but happy to emphasise it; the thread is, (should be) about birding during this situation, and not a general discussion about life with the virus, which sadly it has become.
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 08:45   #445
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I'm wondering if this is going to be a good spring for rarity spotting. Since virtually nobody can travel abroad, we'll all have to concentrate on local birding. More "boots on the ground".
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 08:52   #446
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It's been said, but happy to emphasise it; the thread is, (should be) about birding during this situation, and not a general discussion about life with the virus, which sadly it has become.
Fairly true - obviously there's going to be a crossover, and stats, opinion and various other bits as there are.

I see Andy has started the relevant thread already - https://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?t=387635

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Originally Posted by Deb Burhinus View Post

(Don’t forget to give yourself a break from all the news - there’s some excellent instagram posts coming online from bands and musicians who’ve had to cancel concerts - just listened to half an hour of Chris Martin playing in his living room https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbTEXxcoiE0
and Keith Urban with Nicole Kidman dancing in the background https://pagesix.com/2020/03/17/keith...heir-basement/ brilliant stuff )
Cool

Good antidote to death stats, doom, gloom and armageddon ...
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 09:08   #447
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I'm wondering if this is going to be a good spring for rarity spotting. Since virtually nobody can travel abroad, we'll all have to concentrate on local birding. More "boots on the ground"
Not going to be a great year for yearlisting though ...


(On a County/Anything else level above Patch)
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 09:11   #448
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It's been said, but happy to emphasise it; the thread is, (should be) about birding during this situation, and not a general discussion about life with the virus, which sadly it has become.
And was always going to expand it's coverage!

IMHO, what this shows is the obsessive, one dimensional existence of a few people.

I'm as dedicated a birder as anyone else but screw that for now, it's the last thing on my mind, I have a family who come a very clear first in any situation

I'll leave this thread to the obsessives then.
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 09:13   #449
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Spoke with Rob Hutchinson yesterday (BirdtourAsia) and he's locked down in the Philippines so no touring for him or his punters in the near future.

I wonder how many small companies will fold although I suppose you can pick up the threads of such a company when things normalise?
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Old Wednesday 18th March 2020, 09:24   #450
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Spoke with Rob Hutchinson yesterday (BirdtourAsia) and he's locked down in the Philippines so no touring for him or his punters in the near future.

I wonder how many small companies will fold although I suppose you can pick up the threads of such a company when things normalise?
It may give you a glimpse of the terrible person I actually am but to some extent I am looking forward to travelling after this is over - well, if this is ever over - and most of the tourist infrastructure (which I mostly not use) is in shambles. Obviously, this can be a double-edged sword because it's hard to say whether the decay exactly leads to ... but there are definitely places where "all local guides going bust and having to do something else for living" is the dream for me.
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