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Corona virus threat to birding

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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 00:05   #551
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Who is this Tomas Pueyo, and why should we be listening to internet rubbish? Just a couple of egregious errors: the projected hospitalization and death rates are exaggerated by orders of magnitude because they're based only on cases that have tested positive, and testing has been hugely inadequate. And there is absolutely NO evidence that the mutations observed so far in C19 are sufficient to interfere with immune response, or any reason to believe that C19 will in the long term behave more like a flu virus than other coronaviruses like SARS, in fact the natural assumption would be quite the reverse. Or that new mutations will be more or equally deadly; the general tendency is the reverse. Fearmongering seems to be working very well for him.
You obviously don't like it then?

Is there anything correct, interesting or relevant in there in your opinion, or would it be safe to say that it is all rubbish.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 00:18   #552
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In a similar vein perhaps (Coronavirus: What could the West learn from Asia?) -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51970379
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 00:23   #553
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On topic, saw a nice flock of Fieldfare earlier today whilst closing up some hides for the foreseeable future.


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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 09:48   #554
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It took a long time to read the article and even longer the comments.

It compares figures, percentages and examples across continents but there seems to not be a constant between these countries. There are some interesting points though and some validity in the overall picture.

It is clear that the health services, collectively, are not in a position to deal with the virus in its current form and rate of acceleration. So at what point do you become selective? The risk of racism, ageism, elitism, corruption and lots of other ismís is huge. If you have a 90 year old on a ventilator and a 20 year old needs it who decides who dies?

I know my granny would have given up her bed....
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 10:24   #555
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So at what point do you become selective? The risk of racism, ageism, elitism, corruption and lots of other ismís is huge. If you have a 90 year old on a ventilator and a 20 year old needs it who decides who dies?

I know my granny would have given up her bed....
Listening to an A&E consultant on the radio a few days ago the point at which you become selective is when you have too few ventilators or sufficient trained staff and too many critical patients. That point is rapidly approaching in the UK. He was distraught at the idea that at some point he was going to be forced, against all of his professional instincts & training, to make that decision. You're right to be concerned about potential risk of corruption or prejudice. Ethically, it must be done on the basis of the likelihood of survival, more brutally on potential lifespan remaining and whether there are any young dependants. At approaching 70 I've already told my daughters that if such a cruel eventuality happens then the priority should be to give someone with c50 years to live than me with c15. That way I'll relieve any harrassed doctor of responsibility and hopefully mitigate my children's anger.

It's cruel scenarios such as this that behoves we birders to pursue our hobby in ways that will not risk spreading this contagion. Yet only yesterday I saw photos of groups of birders unnecessarily crowded together. I much prefer sociable birding but it's going to have to be solo birding for the foreseeable future & using mobiles to chat & exchange news if I see friends in the field (my increasing deafness means when standing well apart I struggle to follow conversations).
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 10:34   #556
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It took a long time to read the article and even longer the comments.

It compares figures, percentages and examples across continents but there seems to not be a constant between these countries. There are some interesting points though and some validity in the overall picture.

It is clear that the health services, collectively, are not in a position to deal with the virus in its current form and rate of acceleration. So at what point do you become selective? The risk of racism, ageism, elitism, corruption and lots of other ism’s is huge. If you have a 90 year old on a ventilator and a 20 year old needs it who decides who dies?

I know my granny would have given up her bed....
I have said previously that the World cannot just stop, indefinitely. There may have to come a time when politicians have to make the brutal choice of restarting the World economy and coming to terms with 'acceptable losses'?
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 11:05   #557
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I have said previously that the World cannot just stop, indefinitely. There may have to come a time when politicians have to make the brutal choice of restarting the World economy and coming to terms with 'acceptable losses'?
Putting the economy into stasis will clearly increase poverty and we know that more poverty will mean an increase in death rates and shortening life expectancy. The hard part is knowing how to balance visible, countable deaths now against theoretical unknowable ones in the future. I don't pretend to know the answers only that we as birders need to reflect on how we pursue our hobby and in what circumstances, if any, it's now responsible to broadcast news of rare birds.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 11:12   #558
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I think we in the UK will be locked down next week
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 11:48   #559
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I think we in the UK will be locked down next week
But nobody knows what that means. It has meant different things in different countries at different times.

As a word, it has no precise definition and all of the financial measures are designed to keep a continuity of commercial activities by getting businesses to survive.

I am informed by a friend employed by a company with an Italian component that commercial activity in Italy is being put on hold next week save for defined exceptions in heightened measures.

All the best
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 11:55   #560
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But nobody knows what that means. It has meant different things in different countries at different times.

As a word, it has no precise definition and all of the financial measures are designed to keep a continuity of commercial activities by getting businesses to survive.

I am informed by a friend employed by a company with an Italian component that commercial activity in Italy is being put on hold next week save for defined exceptions in heightened measures.

All the best
In Italy 'Under the new rules announced late on Saturday, sport and physical activity outside, even individually, is banned. Using vending machines is forbidden.'

The blasť attitude of some young people is aggravating, whilst they themselves may well skate through an infection, should they pass it on to a parent or grandparent, it could well kill them and for what, a night on the piss!

Foolishness

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

We'll all end up locked in, eating each other, Boris could feed two or three for a week I think
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 12:24   #561
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Social distancing:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...nerable-adults

Self isolation:-

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...lation-advice/

Stay safe & keep as cheerful as possible people.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 13:33   #562
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I go to my local mini-market fairly frequently, and every time there is the same group of older retirees standing outside smoking and gabbing.

Even if they aren't protecting themselves, I won't do anything to increase their risk.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 13:42   #563
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I go to my local mini-market fairly frequently, and every time there is the same group of older retirees standing outside smoking and gabbing.

Even if they aren't protecting themselves, I won't do anything to increase their risk.
I see much the same - trouble is, if one is serious about distancing, how does one get past them to go in to the shop? They're effectively blocking the road for anyone else.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 13:50   #564
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I see much the same - trouble is, if one is serious about distancing, how does one get past them to go in to the shop? They're effectively blocking the road for anyone else.
Cough loudly and continuously while continuing to advance upon them.

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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 14:14   #565
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I see much the same - trouble is, if one is serious about distancing, how does one get past them to go in to the shop? They're effectively blocking the road for anyone else.
This particular store is big enough that you can avoid them. It's a big place with 10-15 gas pumps and twice as many parking places. So they can be avoided.

To be fair, I pretty much did that already to avoid second-hand smoke, but now it's more of an imperative, because thinking about it, if they aren't protecting themselves, quite frankly, I'd rather not go near them.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 14:32   #566
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This particular store is big enough that you can avoid them. It's a big place with 10-15 gas pumps and twice as many parking places. So they can be avoided.

To be fair, I pretty much did that already to avoid second-hand smoke, but now it's more of an imperative, because thinking about it, if they aren't protecting themselves, quite frankly, I'd rather not go near them.
My neighbour who is self isolating, scared the hell out of an Amazon delivery driver yesterday. Appearing to collect his delivery in black gloves and attempting to explain his status as 'vulnerable' to the Polish driver, he was clearly misunderstood and the driver backed away in panic, covering his face and mouth.

Wouldn't be surprised if he's on an unofficial blacklist for deliveries now!
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 15:51   #567
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In Italy 'Under the new rules announced late on Saturday, sport and physical activity outside, even individually, is banned. Using vending machines is forbidden.' ......
What kind of fresh heck is this ?!?!

So you can't even go for a walk outside by yourself to look at the birds !!!!!






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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 16:02   #568
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The Scottish Cabinet Secretary for transport has tweeted: "With immediate effect, ferry companies will no longer take non-essential travellers. From now on Ferries will be for those who live on our islands, who have an essential need to travel to or from the mainland and for essential supplies or business. Nothing else." Now nobody can ignore please by the islanders not to visit even if there's a 'mega' there.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 16:08   #569
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I have said previously that the World cannot just stop, indefinitely. There may have to come a time when politicians have to make the brutal choice of restarting the World economy and coming to terms with 'acceptable losses'?
And there is the crux. At some point that decision has to be made.

World recession means, amongst other things:
Millions of youngsters between say 10-20 pre-work are going to struggle because jobs will be scarce for the next X years.

21-30 - first out the door i.e. first to lose their jobs. Should recover.

30-50 - money in the bank but investments shot and little chance of pensions on the future but should have time to bounce back. But will have car payments, mortgages, kids to raise.....

51-70 - pensions screwed, little chance of re-training, savings going up in a ball of chalk.

71+ might croke it

This is not a joke... As Andy says someone has to make the tough decision to restart the economies or we and our children suffer for a number of years. On what basis do they make that decision and on whose advice?

We lose X million if people go back to work or what?

Already chinese people have been targetted. How far will China go to protect its citizens? Fight?

At least the people making the decisions will earn their money and thankfully thats not me. I have no job now, my girlfriend has no job now, my x wife has had to close her business. Things ain't going to be easy....
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 16:21   #570
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Chosun, Here in Spain we have been under "lock down" for a week. Nobody is allowed out of their house except for essential needs. I.e. food shopping, going to the pharmacy or going to work. All outside recreation is forbidden. This includes walking, cycling, horse riding and everything else! For those who live in town, which is 99% of Spanish, this is really a difficult time. Imagine being in a flat with 2 or 3 teenagers, it is not worth thinking about it. I forecast an increase in the divorce rate and a baby boom in December!!
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 16:23   #571
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For those in lockdown or isolation in Italy, Spain and further afield, or effectively self-isolating elsewhere (eg UK) I've started a Joint Birdforum listing thread in the appropriate subforum -

https://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?t=387738

Please feel free to share your sightings, photos etc, your common balcony bird may be someone else's mega. Will try and keep a running total for all, hopefully will help a tad with motivation and something positive in these strange and trying times.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 16:53   #572
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The Scottish Cabinet Secretary for transport has tweeted: "With immediate effect, ferry companies will no longer take non-essential travellers. From now on Ferries will be for those who live on our islands, who have an essential need to travel to or from the mainland and for essential supplies or business. Nothing else." Now nobody can ignore pleas by the islanders not to visit even if there's a 'mega' there.
Thanks John- that’s helpful to know. Hopefully RBA/BGs etc are assessing what role they might have in this respect - perhaps rb news still go out but with locations undisclosed so people can still get a general feel for the type of spring we’re having regarding movements/occurrences of rares/megas.

Ringers and those involved in the NRS have been requested in writing to lead by example as have volunteer surveyors and to follow all government advice re ‘social distancing’ etc. We have been asked to follow any landowner’s decisions re safety from potentially infected birders/ringers/surveyors etc.

If we start seeing crowded scenes like those at the Royal Parks this w/e, on nature reserves and other outdoor environments too, as people take advantage of not working/sunny weather it really doesn't give a very good impression of the birding fraternity at this time if half of them are carrying scopes or mist poles! Your comments upthread in this regard are also welcome.

As Steve said earlier we are likely facing ‘lockdown’ imminently anyway so while its unclear exactly what that means yet, you can be sure it will mean even more restrictions than now and will be enforced by the police if voluntary compliance to help save lives is not achieved.
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 16:53   #573
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The Scottish Cabinet Secretary for transport has tweeted: "With immediate effect, ferry companies will no longer take non-essential travellers. From now on Ferries will be for those who live on our islands, who have an essential need to travel to or from the mainland and for essential supplies or business. Nothing else." Now nobody can ignore please by the islanders not to visit even if there's a 'mega' there.
About time as well John.

Rich
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 17:04   #574
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About time as well John.

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I believe Wales just shut too?
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Old Sunday 22nd March 2020, 17:20   #575
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I believe Wales just shut too?
Twitter is awash with photos of Snowdon Car Park Deb. Ridiculous.

Not too many second home owners where I live Deb. Too close to Port Toilet. Took this photo this afternoon. You can see the aforementioned boot on the landscape in the background.
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