RafaelMatias
Unknown member
Thanks Dan, it's sincerely appreciated. I wish the same to yours, and obviously everyone else, but in this post especially to everyone in BF. We're all together in this and the only way to beat this is to stay together and help eachother.Very much trust your folks stay well. It's a similar situation for my parents down in France - obviously I can't help them at all right now but have told them (!) to stop all their domestic aid (which they are entitled to) etc, quarantine/disinfect their food deliveries, and only accept essential health visitors from now on.
Also (and not just for brownie points on here ) - went round to the neighbour this afternoon to enquire if she had local family who would pick up shopping etc for her. Turns out she doesn't, so I said she shouldn't go down the shops any more and we would do her shopping etc for her ...
As a purely theoretical speculative exercise this is what I think would happen, if isolating all elderly people away from the rest of the population could be feasible/possible (which I don't think it would, except in very small communities): most younger people have socialization rates probably significantly higher than those of older people; in the absence of older people, younger people would not refrain as much of contacting others (because the risk was lower for most, according to the current perception) and the transmission rate of the virus would go sky high; national health services capacity would be overwhelmed fast (in any country) and an immense quantity of younger people would not receive any treatment at all; mortality would be very large among people, from the virus, and other minor problems usually easily treated that would need treatment simultaneously; lots of medical personal would contract the virus and nhs capacity would decrease even further. So, in my opinion, not a very good scenario; I think the presence of elderly people does in fact help other people to accept the change in behaviours that we are all (temporarily!) being asked to follow (or imposed, depending on the case).Haven't seen any modelling for how many would get it seriously if we could exclude the older/at risk, and get most of the population to get it out of 'the way' so to speak (but should be easy enough to do, on current 'assumptions'.)
The thing with this virus is that if it indeed does become endemic (as been suggested by some researchers) then it is a matter of time to contact with it. China is now starting to experience a second wave of cases, now coming from outside, almost as an "echo" of the first outbreak. A complicated pattern seems to be developing, it's really too early to understand it, it seems. Also, when a vaccine is finally produced, it might induce a violent physiological reaction in the group now considered of higher risk.
We'll see how it goes. Hopefully better than worse. Some luck will also be needed, but much is in our hands, at least I want to believe that.