• Welcome to BirdForum, the internet's largest birding community with thousands of members from all over the world. The forums are dedicated to wild birds, birding, binoculars and equipment and all that goes with it.

    Please register for an account to take part in the discussions in the forum, post your pictures in the gallery and more.
ZEISS DTI thermal imaging cameras. For more discoveries at night, and during the day.

Evidence for the Survival of the Ivory-Billed Woodpecker (1 Viewer)

Status
Not open for further replies.
hgr389 said:
As I've examined the evidence in greater and greater depth, I've become more skeptical. Right now, if you asked me "What's your confidence level that there was a living Ivory-bill in Arkansas in 2004?", I'd say "10% or less".



surely there has to be photographic evidence by now!!!!
 
no

rare birds are by definition very difficult to photograph

many birds known to be extant have not been photographed yet. Many more have not been recorded for a long long time. Calayan Rail was recently found in the Philipopines - yet it's pretty common and easyish to see. We recently saw birds in Tibet that have never been filmed, some seldom photogrpahed and some that are quite numerous that were only recorded in 1985 and 1995 since the 1800s

the difficulty of photographing it is not at all suprising

atb
Tim
 
hgr389 said:
As I've examined the evidence in greater and greater depth, I've become more skeptical. Right now, if you asked me "What's your confidence level that there was a living Ivory-bill in Arkansas in 2004?", I'd say "10% or less".

Right now, if you asked me "What's your confidence level in HGR's opinion that there is a 10% or less chance that there was a living Ivory-bill in Arkansas in 2004?", I'd say.....

".0000000000000001%, or less."

:)
 
Last edited:
Tim Allwood said:
no

rare birds are by definition very difficult to photograph

many birds known to be extant have not been photographed yet. Many more have not been recorded for a long long time. Calayan Rail was recently found in the Philipopines - yet it's pretty common and easyish to see. We recently saw birds in Tibet that have never been filmed, some seldom photogrpahed and some that are quite numerous that were only recorded in 1985 and 1995 since the 1800s

the difficulty of photographing it is not at all suprising

atb
Tim

You are, in my opinion, comparing apples to watermelons. Supposedly Ivory-bills are now known to exist. Calayan Rails were, apparently, not known to exist (to science) but now that they are they are easy to photograph as can be seen here.

A large, famous, flashy bird in Arkansas is not the same as an unknown bird in Tibet, where, until recently at least, it was virtually impossible to visit by birders or anyone else for that matter.

The Ivory-bill is called "The Grail Bird" because it has been the subject of so much intense searching.

What IS apples to apples, is Ivory-bill to Ivory-bill, Cornell to Cornell, U.S. to U.S.

From The Cornell Daily Sun:

Of the few photographs of the ivory-billed woodpecker that exist, most were captured by another Cornell ornithologist, the legendary Prof. Arthur A. Allen, during an ornithological pilgrimage to the South in 1935...

In December 1934, an article in Science announced Allen’s expedition to the scientific community; it indicates that, over the last seventy years, Cornell ornithologists’ aims have hardly changed.

“Professor Arthur A. Allen, of the Laboratory of Ornithology at Cornell University, will lead an expedition next spring to search out the haunts of rare North American birds in order to preserve for future generations their habitats and calls,” it read.

Allen and his colleagues took early recording equipment on their trip. Although it was then considered to be portable and modern, their audio gear filled two trucks.

“The trucks will be equipped with cameras and blinds and modern sound-recording equipment so that the voices as well as the actions and appearance of the bird can be recorded on films and preserved for posterity,” the article continued.


According to Nature Ivory-bills were already so rare that by 1924 some experts were already beginning to wonder if they were extinct.

What were the results of that 1935 Cornell Ivory-bill expedition with relatively primitive equipment? Excellent film, photos and sound recordings. That is why Allen's evidence is universally accepted as scientific proof and why I refuse to accept the "it's nearly impossible" excuse.
 
buck3m said:
You are, in my opinion, comparing apples to watermelons. Supposedly Ivory-bills are now known to exist. Calayan Rails were, apparently, not known to exist (to science) but now that they are they are easy to photograph as can be seen here.

Seems to me that there are actually only 4 or 5 pictures of the Rail and only one non-captured bird. You'd think that you'd get many more than one or two photos even in the matter of a year after knowing the bird exists wouldn't you? Maybe some birds are just that hard to find, especially if they are known for their transient nature and there are only a handful left.

One more thing, the rail is from the Phillipines and not Tibet. I'm pretty sure people have been going to the Phillipines easily for a while now.
 
affe22 said:
Seems to me that there are actually only 4 or 5 pictures of the Rail and only one non-captured bird. You'd think that you'd get many more than one or two photos even in the matter of a year after knowing the bird exists wouldn't you? Maybe some birds are just that hard to find, especially if they are known for their transient nature and there are only a handful left.

One more thing, the rail is from the Phillipines and not Tibet. I'm pretty sure people have been going to the Phillipines easily for a while now.

I thought you said you wouldn't be posting here anymore? As a matter of fact, I have irrefutable evidence:


affe22 said:
I too am now tired of this debate and shall be posting no more.

I never said the Calayan Rail was from Tibet but it's irrelevant anyway. It IS rare, recently discovered, and they already have good photos of it. And I guess if they can catch them, by hand, they can probably get as many photos of them as they like, don't you think?

And most of these "discoveries" are discoveries to science, but not to local people. The famed coelacanth, which has often been cited in this debate, was well known to local fisherman. The reason it wasn't "found" is because no one was looking. Now it is refound and photographed repeatedly.

Do you think Ivory-bills are transient during the nesting season? Are they more transient or more wary than they were in 1935? Do you have any evidence of that other than the fact that no one can get solid proof?

"When a man finds a conclusion agreeable, he accepts it without argument, but when he finds it disagreeable, he will bring against it all the forces of logic and reason."
- Thucydides
 
buck3m said:
I never said the Calayan Rail was from Tibet but it's irrelevant anyway. It IS rare, recently discovered, and they already have good photos of it. And I guess if they can catch them, by hand, they can probably get as many photos of them as they like, don't you think?

What can I say, I missed it too much. As for the rail, from what I read they said the birds were actually quite abundant in the area they lived, only problem is that they live on one small island in the Phillipines, thus limiting their numbers. The local people had known of the bird for a long time before scientists got their hands on it (sounds oddly familiar). As for good photos and catching them (probably not by hand), all the evidence that I can find points to a single good field photo and two captured birds. I'll keep looking though.

Also, I wonder why the fact that these birds "differ from 1935" is brought up. If you read anything about the 1935 search you would learn that they had to be escorted to the sight by someone who had seen them and almost gave up their search before the person guiding them relocated the birds. It took about a week to figure out where repeatedly seen birds were. Obviously they weren't that easy to find outside of knowing where the birds may be nesting. If that Cornell team had no idea of that area, their search may been quite similar to more recent ones.
 
Last edited:
One more thing, if you don't like the coelacanth example, how about the Cuban solenodon. Thought to be extinct since it was last known from zoos in 1969 until rediscovered two or three years ago.

If you don't like that one I'm sure I can find many more.
 
buck3m said:
And most of these "discoveries" are discoveries to science, but not to local people.

If you look through the pertinent threads, there seem to be a lot of local people swearing up and down that they've seen the big woodie.

I'm ticked off, I actually spellchecked a word in this posting. Now I'm going to be wasting time bothering with spelling.
 
On the Calayan Rail's discovery team...

The team took photographs and video footage of the birds in the wild, and of one young female in the hand, together with detailed measurements.

They're not going to have trouble with skeptics.

Your comment on the 1935 Ivory-bill search...


affe22 said:
It took about a week to figure out where repeatedly seen birds were.
Wow, it took them a whole WEEK to start getting all that good footage? I don't think that helps your case.

In the most recent search the team apparently DID know EXACTLY where to look, because they reportedly found them over and over.

And for every example you can give an an animal presumed extinct that has been refound, you can find 1,000 examples where they are "still dead."

From the Cornell Daily Sun:

“Science advances on the basis of evidence that can be scrutinized by other scientists,” Jackson said.

Like many ornithologists, including Fitzpatrick, Jackson wants to see high-definition images of the woodpecker; recordings and personal sightings are hardly irrefutable.
 
buck3m said:
Wow, it took them a whole WEEK to start getting all that good footage? I don't think that helps your case.

Sure it does. The Cornell team stated they believed that they were not in the birds natural home range, which would put them outside the birds nesting site for sure. If it takes a week to find the bird at a reliable spot and get good footage of it, how hard is it to get them at a spot where they just pass through. Think about it. How much video and sound did they get before they found the nest sight? That's correct, none of both.


buck3m said:
And for every example you can give an an animal presumed extinct that has been refound, you can find 1,000 examples where they are "still dead."

That is kind of a moot point. Of course you can find 1,000s of examples of things presumed extinct that still are. You know why? Because there are more species extinct than extant. So really, that statement is kind of ridiculous. Now, if you want to get into species presumed extinct, searched for and determined still extinct, I feel that 1,000s might be a bit of an over estimate, unless you count things like the giant ground sloth (searched for by the Corps of Discovery).
 
are some people willfully misunderstanding the points about incredibly rarely seen birds known to exist?

Kill Bill Tanager discovered last year on the well travelled Manu Road - a bright yellow bird! Where's that been the last 100 years?

Tim
 
buck3m said:
And for every example you can give an an animal presumed extinct that has been refound, you can find 1,000 examples where they are "still dead."
You're comparing Apples with large unknown fruit. Dinosaurs are presumed extinct by all (except bird freaks), they'll probably never be found. IBW are presumed extinct by some and not by others. Better comparison, presumed extinct but still covered under the Endangered Species Act. 1,000 to one appears to be quite excessive.

94%
 
We can argue fruits all we like, but I think an objective person would have to agree that the Ivory-bill/Cornell/1935 to Ivory-bill/Cornell/2004 comparison is unquestionably more valid than comparing the Ivory-bill hunt to someone stumbling upon a Rail in the Philippines or a tanager in the Peruvian jungle.

The "other extinct creatures have been refound" argument is not "evidence." If it is, it is evidence to point out that the Dodo, Carolina Parakeet, Passenger Pigeon, Giant Moa, and Elephant Bird were, and are, believed extinct. The only merit either argument has is that it is important to keep an open mind.


affe22 said:
If it takes a week to find the bird at a reliable spot and get good footage of it, how hard is it to get them at a spot where they just pass through.
That Ivory-bill the team saw was apparently passing through mighty slowly. He was reportedly seen in the area repeatedly from February 2004 to February 2005. Most or all sightings occurred in an area 3 km across. With an area that small with all that coverage and all those sightings, it was really, really unlucky no one got a good look.

Where are the nests? Find even an abandoned nest and they claim you can do DNA testing on a feather.


Tim Allwood said:
IBW is 99.99% extinct
BirdForum, 16 June, 2004.

How sure are you now, Tim?

Hey curunir, I wish I never would have mentioned spelling. Now I'M spell-checking.
 
Just come to this thread a bit late,fascinating stuff,,must admit when the news first came out I was really excited by the discovery,just a little worried now though that my initial euphoria may have been premature!!
It really worries me about the lack of sightings over the last 12 months,despite having the whole of last winter to search the area,and why leave the discovery a whole year before releasing the info,on the eve of a new book being published..coincidence!!
The fact that things seem to have gone a bit quiet is worrying,are Cornell having second thoughts,thinking they may have released the news a bit early,if no more sightings are made,ever,nobody can prove that Cornell still werent right,it may have been the last IBW they saw,or hunters may have gone in and killed any birds remaining..they are hardly going to admit they were wrong are they,too much credibility to lose,so id expect everything to just "go quiet" and fade away,but im still hoping to see some more footage in the coming winter,,if only for the birds sake!!!
 
buck3m said:
That Ivory-bill the team saw was apparently passing through mighty slowly. He was reportedly seen in the area repeatedly from February 2004 to February 2005. Most or all sightings occurred in an area 3 km across. With an area that small with all that coverage and all those sightings, it was really, really unlucky no one got a good look.

Woodpeckers, like bats and many other species, use travel corridors to get from roost to other places like feeding areas. I do believe that is what they are saying the area where most of the sightings took places is. Plus, I wouldn't call 8 sightings in a year moving slowly since most were around the same days in their respective field season.

Weren't the last sightings in the winter/spring of 2005? That is only last field season.
 
Last edited:
buck3m said:
BirdForum, 16 June, 2004.

How sure are you now, Tim?

Hey curunir, I wish I never would have mentioned spelling. Now I'M spell-checking.

best evidence at the time mate

it was good enough for the people at BirdLife Internatinal and IUCN although it was thought possible to be in the Siearra Maestre mountains of Cuba - and still is. I have seen the Cornell stuff, know of the people involoved and have chatted to BirdLife emloyees about. I see absolutely no reason to doubt it. As i have tried to mention above MANY birds are around at very low density/numbers and incredibly hard to see let alone photgraph - some of the doves in the philippines for example...

I am more than willing to believe the people who have done the work, as i am in most fields of life. I wouldn't tell a surgeon operating on me how to go about it, or tell a pilot how to fly etc...

Tim
 
Viewing the IBW

One thing that baffles me somewhat is that F&W Service and whomever are supposed to be building a viewing area and platform in AR? What are they expecting? It's not like the whooping crane that you can see across miles of marsh.
 
curunir said:
One thing that baffles me somewhat is that F&W Service and whomever are supposed to be building a viewing area and platform in AR? What are they expecting? It's not like the whooping crane that you can see across miles of marsh.

They're expecting a lot of people to go, "Oh, a viewing platform, lets go there." I figure they are trying to funnel people to places they want them to be. Also, people think the Ivory-billed flies up higher when traveling distances, so maybe it will give a better view of this area.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top