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COVID: lies, damn lies, and statistics

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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 03:13   #1
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COVID: lies, damn lies, and statistics

Should Colorado reopen yet or not? Here are two graphs of COVID over the past couple of months. Anyone see a problem?

First one: from The New York Times

Second one: from The Denver Post (slightly more realistic)

This is incredible...
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 05:11   #2
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Funny you didn't post the caption for that denver post figure:

Note: We are now using the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment's "date of onset" data that attempts to show the actual date of cases, hospitalizations and deaths rather than the date they were reported. Data could lag a day or two, which is reflected on the charts, and data within the most recent week is likely to be revised. Not all cumulative cases are active — the state has not released recovery data. Source for all data is the CDPHE.

Note that the part in bold was bold in the figure caption....I am guessing that Tenex posted this to argue that their has been a severe drop this week in cases, when that is almost certainly an artifact of the data collection process.
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 05:58   #3
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Until people start using the exact, same criteria to produce data, no group of figures are reliable in terms of making comparions, here's another example.

Belgium, who have the highest death rate from COVID per capita, are counting those who weren't actually tested but 'may' have died from it, no wonder their figure is so high, is that even scientific?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52491210

The article does reveal a potentially groundbreaking discovery....

'Epidemiologists say they've found a "remarkable" observation in care homes, that around 10% of residents have been asymptomatic carriers of the virus and have built up an immunity.'
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 06:12   #4
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The BBC often do a fact checking piece, here's the latest.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52487960
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 07:59   #5
peter.jones
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Originally Posted by Mysticete View Post
Funny you didn't post the caption for that denver post figure:

Note: We are now using the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment's "date of onset" data that attempts to show the actual date of cases, hospitalizations and deaths rather than the date they were reported. Data could lag a day or two, which is reflected on the charts, and data within the most recent week is likely to be revised. Not all cumulative cases are active the state has not released recovery data. Source for all data is the CDPHE.

Note that the part in bold was bold in the figure caption....I am guessing that Tenex posted this to argue that their has been a severe drop this week in cases, when that is almost certainly an artifact of the data collection process.
There wasn't a single case next week either:)
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Old Saturday 2nd May 2020, 13:07   #6
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when that is almost certainly an artifact of the data collection process.
Seems worse than this to me.

The journalists seemingly failed to understand what the data they were plotting represented.
The Denver Post graphs are suggested to show "daily cases", "daily hospitalizations", "daily deaths", plotted against "the actual date of cases, hospitalizations and deaths".
But in fact what they show are numbers of people who tested positive / were hospitalized / died (up to the day the data set was assembled), plotted against the date on which these people are thought to have started symptoms ("date of illness onset"), which is quite different.

E.g., in the third graph, the absence of deaths for dates later than April 25 does not mean, in any way, that there were no deaths after April 25. This merely means that those who died on these dates had started being ill earlier (and are thus plotted farther to the left on the graph), and that none of those who (are known to have) started being ill on these dates is dead... yet.

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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 06:34   #7
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Regarding the second set of graphs there is no way deaths would come to an end at the same time as daily cases reduce to zero.

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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 07:03   #8
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Regarding the second set of graphs there is no way deaths would come to an end at the same time as daily cases reduce to zero.
If you read these graphs as daily cases and deaths plotted against their respective dates, deaths would seem to come to an end several days before cases reduce to zero, actually. (It's not really possible to tell from the attached image, but it's clear on the journal website. Currently, deaths range up to Apr 25, cases range up to May 1. (But they seem to update the graphs on a daily basis, so this will probably change.))

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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 07:32   #9
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Exclamation

Just found out this weekend that the 96 year old mother of a friend of a friend, had made a full recovery despite facing the aged care facility onslaught. I think that speaks volumes about this .........

96 years old !!






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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 08:04   #10
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Not another Coronavirus thread!!!!!


I know it's all relevant and our lives at the moment and all that, and threads get confusing ... but ...
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 08:13   #11
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Just found out this weekend that the 96 year old mother of a friend of a friend, had made a full recovery despite facing the aged care facility onslaught. I think that speaks volumes about this .........

96 years old !!

Chosun
Well in UK we've had a 106 year old woman walk out of hospital after a full recovery, na na na-na naaahh!

Actually when you think about it, it makes sense: not only are both of these ladies, ladies - which the statistics say gives them a better survival chance than for men against COVID-19 - but also by reaching their advanced ages they've already proved they've got something pretty special that keeps them going (I'm thinking genes rather than a positive mental attitude or faith, before the mystics start!)

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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 08:33   #12
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Just found out this weekend that the 96 year old mother of a friend of a friend, had made a full recovery despite facing the aged care facility onslaught. I think that speaks volumes about this .........

96 years old !!








Chosun
What volumes? Nobody claims that mortality is 100% at any age. But it's around 1:5 for very old people - if that seems fine to you, you can surely find a 5-chambered revolver somewhere and play a bit of russian roulette in you leisure time.

I really wish people stop using "someone survived" and "someone had it mild" as big gotchas to "show it to the doomers". Nobody is saying that this is a majority of people will have serious problems from this, you are arguing against an empty room. We are saying that even though the fraction of deaths and serious cases seems low, it's a huge problem when scaled to the whole population.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 09:35   #13
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Not another Coronavirus thread!!!!!


I know it's all relevant and our lives at the moment and all that, and threads get confusing ... but ...
As usual, a nothing to contribute post, in your usual style.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 09:44   #14
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What volumes? Nobody claims that mortality is 100% at any age. But it's around 1:5 for very old people - if that seems fine to you, you can surely find a 5-chambered revolver somewhere and play a bit of russian roulette in you leisure time.

I really wish people stop using "someone survived" and "someone had it mild" as big gotchas to "show it to the doomers". Nobody is saying that this is a majority of people will have serious problems from this, you are arguing against an empty room. We are saying that even though the fraction of deaths and serious cases seems low, it's a huge problem when scaled to the whole population.
We just had some Baroness on tv spouting about old people being 'locked away' and 'confined'. She went on to complain that she saw it as 'victimisation' of the elderly and that 'many' old people in their 70's and 80's are more beneficial to society than 'some' in their 30's and 40's. This may be true in some few circumstance but I suggest that percentage wise, the odds are against those in the upper age bracket.

As has been stated so many times, nobody is locked up or confined in the UK and there is no curfew. Older people have been requested and advised, to limit their social contacts because statistically, it's the older demographic who are not surviving this virus.

She went on to say that applying this logic, we should also isolate all ethnic minorities and all men as they also seem more suscpetible, talk about reductio ad absurdum.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 11:27   #15
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Just found out this weekend that the 96 year old mother of a friend of a friend, had made a full recovery despite facing the aged care facility onslaught. I think that speaks volumes about this .........

96 years old !!






Chosun
And we have had infants die in this country. Your point being?...
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 13:08   #16
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As usual, a nothing to contribute post, in your usual style.
As usual, a condescending post from Andy Adcock.

There are so many of these coronavirus threads. I know you're loving it, but there must be some way of organising all these threads better, with similar, repeated or divergent content!!

I'm also pretty sure it isn't everyone's thing and sometimes it's great just to move away from it all.

Big hugs.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 13:17   #17
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As usual, a condescending post from Andy Adcock.

There are so many of these coronavirus threads. I know you're loving it, but there must be some way of organising all these threads better, with similar, repeated or divergent content!!

I'm also pretty sure it isn't everyone's thing and sometimes it's great just to move away from it all.

Big hugs.
Just don't read either RF of any C19 threads.

Do this instead of posting your, pointy, indignant, little remarks which you throw in at every chance and which add nothing to any thread you decide to comment in and we won't upset your sensibilities will we.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 13:18   #18
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Dan, it's easy - just dont click on anything with the C words in the title, unless you want to! Go on, you know you want to.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 13:27   #19
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It's not easy to not open them - they are pretty much most of the intelligent or semi-intelligent discussion on BF these days, and especially as we all can have some valid comment to make (sorry Andy, but I'm going at have to disagree with you there). Maybe I should start a new thread asking the question - should there be a dedicated C19 Section lol.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 13:28   #20
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Perhaps an indication that we all are really flying blind while trying to deal with this virus:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...mic#post856818

The punch line from the abstract of the paper is ' Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends.'
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 14:02   #21
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It's not easy to not open them - they are pretty much most of the intelligent or semi-intelligent discussion on BF these days, and especially as we all can have some valid comment to make (sorry Andy, but I'm going at have to disagree with you there). Maybe I should start a new thread asking the question - should there be a dedicated C19 Section lol.
That would be to form,
you like suggesting what people should or shouldn't post and which forum it should be in as I recall.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 14:05   #22
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Perhaps an indication that we all are really flying blind while trying to deal with this virus:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...mic#post856818

The punch line from the abstract of the paper is ' Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends.'
Another punchline here

'This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 14:19   #23
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That would be to form,
you like suggesting what people should or shouldn't post and which forum it should be in as I recall.
? Quit with the jibes dude. I'm sure you have better things to do with your time.

Whether anyone else cares or not I don't know, but for me, personally I'm finding the constant Coronavirus obsession on BF a little wearing/offputting, and hard to get away from, notwithstanding that threads 'don't have to be opened'.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 14:42   #24
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? Quit with the jibes dude. I'm sure you have better things to do with your time.

Whether anyone else cares or not I don't know, but for me, personally I'm finding the constant Coronavirus obsession on BF a little wearing/offputting, and hard to get away from, notwithstanding that threads 'don't have to be opened'.
Not a jibe, a fact.

The only one obsessed, seems to be you, obsessed with what people write and suggesting a more suitable forum for it, you need a hobby.
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Old Sunday 3rd May 2020, 14:51   #25
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Really have better things to do with my time than bore everyone with a non-argument with Andy!

;-)


I have a hobby - it's called Birding!!!!! I see this circular argument could go on a while ... and I feel like I've already lost the will to live, ironically!
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