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AGW and rising sea levels

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Old Thursday 16th March 2017, 06:32   #76
Chosun Juan
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Sydney had its hottest December night on record on the 13th, 2016.

This broke the previous record set in 1868! That's right, the 2nd hottest minimum temperature was 148 years ago, when the earth's population was < 1.5billion (~20% of today), and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ~280 ppm (~70% of today).

So what's going on? AGW was not a factor back then, and the inconvenient truth is that it lies uncomfortably outside the much quoted hockey stick.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-1...enrith/8118496

So while in my local area, a hottest summer temperature of 46.9C (116F) , and even one night where it was still 36C (96F) at midnight, was certainly uncomfortable, it doesn't explain that record temperature 148 years ago. If anyone can explain that (pre AGW theorised) 1868 record - I'm all ears.


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Last edited by Chosun Juan : Thursday 16th March 2017 at 10:46. Reason: spellun n dat
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Old Thursday 16th March 2017, 14:20   #77
fugl
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Originally Posted by Chosun Juan View Post
So while in my local area, a hottest summer temperature of 46.9C (116F) , and even one night where it was still 36C (96F) at midnight, was certainly uncomfortable, it doesn't explain that record temperature 148 years ago. If anyone can explain that (pre AGW theorised) 1868 record - I'm all ears.
Easily explained:1868 was an unusually hot year in Australia for its time, an outlier, and as such has no bearing at all on AGW in the 21st century
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Old Thursday 16th March 2017, 15:39   #78
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Easily explained:1868 was an unusually hot year in Australia ......
Well, let's just say that it was ........ then what caused it?

And what caused the 'Federation Drought' (~ a decade c1900) ?

I'm open to answers on the AGW theory either way, but ALL the factors causing climate change need to be identified and quantified. I'd hate to hang an innocent man. Maybe I'll be waiting a while for my pie chart. Until then, the jury is out.

Sydney had its hottest summer on record, yet fell short of the all time temperature record set in 1939. It was also only NSW's 3rd hottest summer on record.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-0...record/8315672

Meanwhile Autumn has fallen, and it's been 4 weeks of gloriously mild temperatures, misty mountains, and bucket loads and bucket loads of rain ......

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trump seems to be doing a fantastic job - politicians everywhere are running scared, trying to jump on the nationalist bandwagon, fearful that the far right will steal some of the gravy. Recent elections in Western Australia, and the Netherlands, show that the people have more sense than that (well in fairness far right 'One Nation' leader Pauline Hanson was last seen with gunshot foot still firmly lodged in mouth).

Our visionless PM has also somehow stumbled upon the pumped hydro solution similar to the one proposed by the Australian National University study (that I linked earlier in a couple of other threads - repeated below), but not before Elon Musk publicly solved our energy supply problems with a guaranteed 100 day battery storage solution to South Australia's renewable energy production fluctuations. It was also highly entertaining to see the South Australian Premier 'shirt front' the dilly dallying Federal Energy Minister at a press conference this morning

http://reneweconomy.com.au/anu-wind-...stralia-87796/


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Old Thursday 16th March 2017, 19:13   #79
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Interesting, Juan.

Our media is keeping up its incessant attacks on Trump, but they aren't gaining any ground. Most Americans, whether they like the guy or not, think that they are all completely biased and untrustworthy.
Liberal rag Politico had to be loath to report Trump's 52% approval rating in their own poll... As expected they buried it down the article between caveats about the health care proposal and other issues.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...re-bill-236055

It's almost as pathetic as Rachel Maddow's farcical Trump tax revelation.
Even Slate agonizes over the epic fail... http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/...spectacle.html
They're liars and scumbags all.
And right wing outlets like Gateway Pundit frame their narratives with garbage, too. Fake news abounds.
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Old Thursday 16th March 2017, 22:30   #80
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Easily explained:1868 was an unusually hot year in Australia for its time, an outlier, and as such has no bearing at all on AGW in the 21st century
That's funny. If data don't fit the theory, discard them as outliers. In rational analysis there are procedural rules for defining and discarding "outliers." Not liking the answer isn't one of them.

With regard to things having a bearing on AGW, what else could have a bearing since Anthropos means humans in Greek? Circular reasoning doesn't get anywhere, but it makes some people feel good. Me, I just get a bit nauseous.

I don't know that you'll read it, but this material by Don J. Easterbrook is very extensive and informative. He, believe it or not, is a strong environmentalist who advocates for pollution control (not including CO2).

Ed
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Old Friday 17th March 2017, 00:09   #81
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That's funny. If data don't fit the theory, discard them as outliers. In rational analysis there are procedural rules for defining and discarding "outliers." Not liking the answer isn't one of them.
Not 'them', but 'it'. All that's been brought in evidence so far is a single cherry-picked date. Reminds me of Inhofe's infamous snowball.

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With regard to things having a bearing on AGW, what else could have a bearing since Anthropos means humans in Greek? Circular reasoning doesn't get anywhere, but it makes some people feel good. Me, I just get a bit nauseous.
Tedious word-play with no bearing on anything. . ..
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Old Friday 17th March 2017, 02:27   #82
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Fugl,

Chosun's comment refers to the summer.
Quote:
Sydney had its hottest summer on record, yet fell short of the all time temperature record set in 1939. It was also only NSW's 3rd hottest summer on record.
Ed
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Old Friday 17th March 2017, 02:39   #83
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Fugl,

Chosun's comment refers to the summer.
I accept the correction, your point otherwise being. . .??
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Old Friday 17th March 2017, 03:29   #84
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You were correcting me, my friend, not the other way around.

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Old Friday 17th March 2017, 03:38   #85
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You were correcting me, my friend, not the other way around.
Say what?? My head's starting to spin. . ..
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Old Friday 17th March 2017, 04:34   #86
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Ed,

Perhaps not so unusual. It seems that despite best efforts to logically disassociate from societal norms (stemming from cooperation for survival, and organization), struggles with true 'objectivity' has been, is, and will be, an ongoing issue in Science, universally, and globally ....

http://science.sciencemag.org/conten...6329/1022.full


Chosun
Chosun,

Sorry, I meant to respond earlier.

Yes, a very interesting article.

As to your point, scientific objectivity all too often involves conflicts with these social forces. In areas like climate research only brave souls venture forward with truth on their lips and wrapped in a cloak of objectivity. So it's no accident that objectivity emerges in the hothouses of tenure and retirement, which is a good thing for us aged folks.

Ed
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Old Tuesday 21st March 2017, 16:32   #87
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Interesting statistics on public attitudes towards AGW--
https://nyti.ms/2nvj5Ok
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Old Thursday 23rd March 2017, 01:54   #88
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More of the same--
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/arctic-s...ow-for-winter/
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Old Friday 24th March 2017, 23:47   #89
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A deadline--
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/23/o...ore-ipad-share

(tap the 'skip deals' arrow to get to the article)
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Old Saturday 25th March 2017, 06:13   #90
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Can't skip it 'cause it wants me to log in. The freebee days may be over with the NYT.

Ed
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Old Saturday 25th March 2017, 06:47   #91
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Can't skip it 'cause it wants me to log in. The freebee days may be over with the NYT.
How irritating and what a shame! Things seem to be in flux. When I clicked the the link just now, the "skip deals" arrow had been replaced by a "continue to NYT" tab which took me directly to the article. But, then, I'm a subscriber permanently signed in.

I'm at a loss to know why they'd want to behave in this churlish way. I would have thought they'd encourage the sharing of individual articles with non-subscribers in hopes of gaining new paid customers. Hopefully it's just a temporary glitch.
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Old Saturday 25th March 2017, 08:31   #92
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Well, in the meantime you might enjoy a somewhat older article on the same subject. History is repeating itself I guess.

Ed
Attached Files
File Type: pdf Pg. 4.pdf (367.8 KB, 81 views)
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Old Saturday 25th March 2017, 08:38   #93
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Can't skip it 'cause it wants me to log in. The freebee days may be over with the NYT.

Ed
Try this link - I can get it OK and I'm not a subscriber.
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Old Saturday 25th March 2017, 17:14   #94
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It doesn't change anything for me. But then you're in the UK. Over here we pay for everything.
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Old Monday 27th March 2017, 07:12   #95
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It doesn't change anything for me. But then you're in the UK. Over here we pay for everything.
This from NYT "support" in response to my complaint--

". . .Non-subscribers to the NYTimes are allows (sic!) 10 articles a month. If the recipient of your shared emails has exceeded this limit, they will not be able to access the articles you have sent until the next month. . .".

A stupid short-sighted policy in my opinion, but there it is!
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Old Monday 27th March 2017, 07:20   #96
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More of the same--

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...a-climate-push
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Old Tuesday 28th March 2017, 02:01   #97
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AGW: the evidence accumulates--
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-in-its-favor/
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Old Tuesday 28th March 2017, 15:57   #98
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Coyotes in the henhouse. . ..

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/u...ore-ipad-share

(tap "skip deals" button to get to the article)
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Old Tuesday 28th March 2017, 20:06   #99
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When to throw in the towel. . ..

https://www.newyorker.com/tech/eleme...climate-change
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Old Wednesday 29th March 2017, 07:36   #100
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Lack of sediment formation is having major impacts in Chinese river deltas too.

Some of the stuff in this article makes me chuckle. The references to people being relocated from the Lockyer Valley, Queensland is one such instance. After the flash floods of 2011 killed dozens of people, and caused billions of dollars worth of damage, serious and concerted efforts were made to relocate the residents of Grantham (elevation ~100m+ above sea level, and located over 100km from the coast!) off the inland creek and river floodplains up onto nearby higher hilltop ground. Locker Valley Mayor Steve Jones said of the old town's location and the disaster, "We're stupid bastards, we just keep building in the swamp".

Nothing at all to do with climate change (whatever it's cause), and everything to do with human folly.

This to me represents the biggest threat, concreting over riparian areas and destroying their functioning (air conditioning, water flow regulation, and soil formation - that's carbon sequestration).

https://eos.org/opinions/global-sign...=EosBuzz032417

Way too many known, and unknown unknowns in the whole Carbon-CO2 system for humans to be mucking about in it in any way at all in my view, and this includes CO2 emission reductions .... (pollution reduction I'm all for - air quality and water quality - way too much plastic in the oceans).

By all means keep heading toward the solar powered future, and researching the whole system (I'm getting mighty hungry waiting for that pie), but don't pretend we're smart enough to be mucking around with fertilized ocean solutions etc.

Why is it that no-one ever mentions that water vapour (an emission from hydrogen powered engines) is a greenhouse gas thus rendering that solution nonsensical?
http://www.roperld.com/science/fuelcellspollution.htm


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